PROGRAMED BETTING..progress

[formula_2002]

Progress indeed.

Now I can automatically
1. log on to my betting web site
2. log in with id and pass word
3. select the track i want to play
4.pick the race number
5. pick the horse
6 pick the amount to bet
7. pick the bet type
8.send in the bet
9.confirm the bet.

The system will allow me to play as many races and different tracks as I wish.

three things remain to be accomplished.

a. write program to time the placment of the bet
b. write program for conditional odds play.
c. put everything into a black box and perhaps market it.

I dont see any problem with a and b
could have it done today or tomorrow..or if I'm wrong, it may take a little longer.

[Holy Bull]

formula:

AT THE RACES has released this feature to conditionally watch the odds board and bet.

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by Holy Bull
formula:

AT THE RACES has released this feature to conditionally watch the odds board and bet.

hb. Do I have to be watching the odds board?

Will they accept my bet if I tell them at 8 am in the morning to bet 100 to win on the 2 if it is >=7-1 at 1 min to post?


Thanks
Joe M

[Holy Bull]

Yeah

[Derek2U]

Do u think that 1min 2 post is reliable via PAYOFF?

[formula_2002]

HB..This is just great. You have got to tell the PA.. you will make his wish list come true!!!

I see that they are an English firm. Have you done any businees with them using their program?

Have they had it is use for any length of time?

Derek, well I guess you can cut it closer. The closer, the better.
There is always some risk..esp in this game.


Joe M

[Holy Bull]

formula:

Wrong AT THE RACES. Their site is hosted at homebased2

I don't use the program (I use 100% homemade stuff for betting) but it has gotten good reviews on this site.

Derek:
I personally do not and have spent exhaustive time modelling the final 1 minute of betting with varying degrees of success.

[formula_2002]

Oh I see, thanks...

I'm just two steps away from completing my own program, but i'll check them out when i'm done.

thanks again

Joe M

[Holy Bull]

formula:

Nothing beats your own s/w if you have the time energy and skill to do it yourself.

[PSTfredk]

where the hell can you make an if bet. if the odds are so and so
you want to bet so and so. how would you get your bet down.
it would be like telling your broker you want to buy xyz at 5 and it
jumps right over you before he can fill your order. but the idea
is fantastic hope you come up with a solution. it seems like you would never know if your bet was placed or not.

[PaceAdvantage]

You make an "if" bet AT A SPECIFIC TIME. If horse #3 is 10-1 or higher at 1mtp, make the bet.....very simple.....the program has your list of possible bets and just scans the online toteboard to see if the criteria is met....if met, place the bet....

It couldn't be more simple to accomplish, but the online betting networks won't allow you to easily write a program to accomplish this. However, online brokerage firms (at least some), WILL allow you to write all kinds of programs to AUTOMATICALLY PLACE stock trades worth MILLIONS. But you and I can't automatically place a $2 bet 'cause for some reason, the tote companies are afraid.

Does it guarantee that the horse won't drop to 5-1 around the far turn, of course not!!! LOL

In any event, I have been told of the At The Races feature, but was also told it only works with Pinnacle at the current time. I have no interest in betting with Pinnacle, so for the time being, my wish list is still not fulfilled.

BUT, Joe, you sound like you are making some very nice progress. Do you mind me asking which wagering company you are planning to be compatible with? If it is US-based, I may just have to open another account.....

[formula_2002]

PA, I'll write the program for a many on line betting boards as possible.

Still working on it.


Joe M

[VetScratch]

PA,

When online wagering services are confronted by this issue, the argument is always about impact on their toteboard bandwidth and service to other customers.

If you have 15 tracks and 135 handicapped odds lines (i.e., probability lines) to monitor against the toteboard pools, even a careful strategy gets noticed because so many post times get compressed throughout the day.

I agree with your analogy about security trading, but most of the wagering services apparently do not.

I am, however, aware of at least one service that has "unofficially" considered offering an efficient transaction-oriented interface especially designed for users of pure software-driven decision analysis and wagering.

I would guess other board members may have also talked to the same folks or other services, so maybe a solution will be forthcoming and will be announced. If one service does it, others will probably follow.

With a transaction-oriented interface, users could be charged on the basis of transaction volume for query transactions, but would likely earn discounts based on wagering transaction activity.

[VetScratch]

Maybe what I posted seems fuzzy, so let's use the securities industry as an example.

When you see a quote montage display, you see the best current bid and asked quotes based on price and size (and sometimes by exchange origins). However, if you have access to the high-speed broadcast quote line you can do a lot of analysis on the constant flow of bid and asked positions that remain submerged beneath the current best quotes. The key point here is that monitoring the high-speed broadcast line in this manner has no impact on other subscribers.

The wagering service providers say this kind of monitoring would swamp them by virtue of the way service is currently provided.

Because so much handle comes in too late to be useful, state-of-the-art approaches to toteboard monitoring often go beyond a discrete (singular) query of the pools with let's say 1-to-2 minutes to scheduled posts (when such pools are really not up to date anyway), and looks to monitor all pool updates and analyze them as a continuum of activity. Whether such analysis can help predict where odds are going (or why) may be debatable, but that is what the services object to.

This is what I understand the services are objecting to with respect to impact on toteboard bandwidth and service to other customers.

[PaceAdvantage]

Their argument (the tote company) holds little water when compared to the securities industry.

Quote providers are streaming hundreds of securities to the end-user, with trades going off multiple times per second on your more active issues.

Contrast this with a track tote operation, that only gets updated at BEST, twice per minute!!!

How can they possibly claim bandwidth issues with such a limited amount of data that's only updated twice per minute (more likely ONCE per minute).

Of course, a solid quote provider is going to charge you anywhere from $30-$150 per month to access their data, but again, we're talking about a much, much larger stream of data, and a much LARGER customer base compared to those online players who are going to have computer programs monitoring the toteboard and automatically placing bets....

Perhaps what they are really reluctant to deal with are the possible liability issues that they may see if they allow end users to freely access the pools and automatically place bets...

[kenwoodallpromos]

What happened to #10- recieve the winnings and track your ROI?

[VetScratch]

PA,

Securities industry high-speed bid/ask quotes go out as a broadcast stream with no specific addressees, like your IP address, and that is the difference. Every broadcast "listener" sees everything and must decide on the fly what to do with the data, such as decide which monitors above the NYSE floor should be refreshed with the appropriate set of quotes that relate to each floor specialist beneath the monitors. Nothing within the original high-speed broadcast stream specifically addresses these individual monitors in the way your IP address identifies your PC.

Brokerages need to do likewise with the broadcast signal, at their own cost, to feed their various real-time applications, just like wagering services must service various IP addresses, and this cost can vary dramatically by user (for toteboard info).

If you have any programmer friends at SIAC, you can verify what I have said about nature of the high-speed broadcasts.

What we should not want to see from wagering providers is the same simplistic approach they seem to prefer... penalizing Mr./Mrs. EveryPlayer by spreading the costs instead of attributing them.

We had lots of free A/V until a minority of players requested video from services that they do not bet with. A small minority of totally automated players can really escalate the cost of providing toteboard information, and we can only hope the services attribute the costs back to those who incur them instead of raising fees for everyone.

[formula_2002]

I may be a bit naive here, but I don’t see how my program can adversely interfere with the traffic on any online betting service, unless of course, and I’m sure it will, increase the number of bets placed there.;)

[VetScratch]

Formula2002,

Of course the services want more bets... but the concept of "If Bets" has been thoroughly noodled and analyzed. The most effective way of approaching this is similar to submitting Stable Alert requests, because it minimizes the impact of Internet traffic.

There are a bunch of legal and technical considerations plus feature/function issues with respect to "If Bets," but the bottom line is that handle per dollar of cost does not seem promising. When you open Pandora's Box for automated "If Bets," you actually discourage addiction-driven wagering from your mainstream interactive customers (i.e., the very players PA members ultimately need in order to show a profit).

Alternatively, when automated "If Bet" decisions are moved to user PCs (with the attendant increase in Internet traffic), the sophisticated users will not necessarily send their automatically triggered bets to the service they use to acquire decision-making information. Another large segment of users will simply monitor toteboards against preposterously high-premium-value "If Bet" propositions that will result in few wagers while they pursue work or other leisure "escapes" instead of becoming passionately involved as interactive horseplayers.

My concern focuses on the prospect that everyone will eventually be for asked to pay the freight for aggressive totally automated users. What seems more equitable is to ask the services find a way to clearly attribute costs and conditionally charge users accordingly, based on overhead and wagering volume.

I have watched "demonstrations" of automated toteboard monitoring run from morning till midnight, monitoring every race, monitoring every pool update, and they produced ENORMOUS traffic volume statistics (accumulated and displayed). Admittedly, the demonstrations appeared to lean on brute force... and clever refinements could reduce overhead, but there is no easy way to discourage excesses other than to go to a better cost attribution system.

[PaceAdvantage]

Why are you always raining on my parade?

[PaceAdvantage]

Chew on this:

I've been connected to my quote provider since 9:30 (Eastern Time) this morning. I am currently tracking 10 symbols. This is the current bandwidth report:

Internet Bandwidth: 7,360,500

Local Bandwidth: 77,300,000

These numbers come straight from the quote provider's status screen, and are based solely on the connection to the quote provider's servers.


You can't tell me I'd be using more bandwidth checking the toteboard at 10 tracks over the same time period TWICE per minute. Impossible.

[VetScratch]

PA,

Sorry, didn't mean to rain on your parade... just meant to relay considerations discussed with more than one service source in an attempt to seek a long-term solution that is acceptable to the providers instead of approaches they will ultimately resist at the expense of all online horseplayers.

=========

You show only 7MB of Internet usage in three hours? Where did you get this service? Sounds like the old Random Quotes Ticker scam... some folks actually did so well trading off it that they wish the scam was never exposed. Is your credit card still getting charged each month? I thought Spitzer closed them out a year ago.

Just kidding! Most Real-Time Quote services come from a ticker plant like DTN, which subscribes to industry broadcast feeds, and in turn services Internet customers by sending data to proprietary software on customer PCs.

For HTML-based services like BRISBet, if 10 tracks were running simultaneously, your Internet usage could well approach 7MB by requesting the WPS Pools and all Exotic Will-Pays twice per minute for three hours (plus the program info for each race). However, the author of the software says the total number of requests is the cost factor that the services object to because it far exceeds the number of updates required to service human interactive players using their browsers.

[VetScratch]

Oops... WPS & Exotics at intervals... will-pays and program info per race... depending on what's available at any service.

[PaceAdvantage]

Funny you should mention DTN. My quote provider is DTN-IQ.

Any other witty thoughts you'd like to pass along?

[GameTheory]

The bandwidth would not be THAT great if you wanted to stream WPS, Exacta, Quinella, & Doubles pools (all the usually available ones) for all tracks. Let's say it is 100MB per day, which is probably high (possibly grossly high).

At 100MB daily, if you wanted the pools every single day that would be approx 3 gigabytes a month. 3 gigabytes of bandwidth in this day and age costs around $6. Not exactly a major expense.

Now obviously that could be a problem if everyone is using a free toteboard, but the entire problem could be eliminated by some service simply charging something $10/month for unlimited tote access that would come in an easily parsable XML format (as opposed to bloated HTML). I'm sure all the serious toteboard grabbers would be quite happy to pay a (very) modest fee to take care of all their toteboard needs.

Racing Channel, which as everyone knows recently cut off their free toteboard for non-account holders, when asked about this issue, says they have no problem with people grabbing all the pages they want -- for instance users of the AT THE RACES programs, which previously used the Racing Channel tote (does it still?) -- as long as they bet with their service (most people did not). Racing Channel said it never had a problem with individual users -- even heavy ones -- as they have plenty of capability (they can handle millions of hits a day without trouble); their main problem was other wagering services (off-shore) siphoning off their tote and displaying it as their own, or simply redirecting all their users to the RC tote, placing the burden of an entire user base for that off-shore site on the RC toteboard with nothing to show for it. The amazing thing was that it wasn't made restricted sooner (although SuperTote is still free to all).

I think all this is somewhat separate from the automated betting question, but the bandwidth argument doesn't really wash. Bandwidth is cheap these days. Besides, if a service offered true "if" betting, then the decision would be made on THEIR end and the user wouldn't need to monitor the toteboard at all. But the only thing people really want is a way to transmit bets without going through a menu -- these are probably the same bets they are making manually (and monitoring the tote board for) so for most users being able to send in their bets directly wouldn't increase their tote usage that much. (Once again, just charge a few bucks a month for unlimited tote and be done with it.)

I suspect more than anything they are worried about people screwing up and making bets in error (or claiming later it was in error) -- there would be no "Confirm this bet" button after all -- and then blaming them for it. Plus it is just a matter of allocating resources to create a service only few will use. More sophisticated services like BetFair in the UK probably do allow data streaming and automatic betting...

[VetScratch]

The current systems are designed for interactive request/response usage. The resistence we hear is based on request volume. If my friend's system generates 10k-20k requests per full day to get all WPS & Exotic updates, then 500 users would generate 10-to-20-million requests per day and so on. And since the software and request intervals are now in the hands of the users, that makes them uneasy. Seems like lack of control is a major issue... that and worry that high-end users will bet elsewhere to get rebates or avoid W2-Gs. If they knew they really would inherit the action, I think they would say, bring it on!

[GameTheory]

Like I say, just set up a for pay toteboard service with streamlined data. They could provide you with a default client so that it can use more of a broadcast model as suggested, and they wouldn't even have to reveal any encryption used or what the protocol was. Then this client would act as a local server on your machine that could interact with your programs as needed. Sounds good to me. Problem is, they don't want those off-shore books who aren't buying the track signal to have such easy access to it (I presume), which means they don't want to allow the general public such easy access either.

[Derek2U]

Very good post & i wouldn't mind paying $10 or 25 a month to
DL tote action.

[Holy Bull]

The horse racing industry has never done anything to promote the at home sophiticated 21st centry bettor. It has nothing to do with tote security or bandwidth, it has everything to do with money. No individual track wants to foot the bill and their is no strong national organization to make it happen. Horse racing is content staying in the 1970's and their handle will continue to dwindle because of it.

A subscription based XML odds and data feed would be so easy.

[formula_2002]

The Program is written.

Next step.

Set up an excel file with track, race number, program number, minuets to post, and min. odds.

The players enter all the data into an excell file before he goes to work ( with all this play they will need the day job).

One click should import the data to the program.
from there on in it's all up to the horse(s).

Ofcourse if you have a computerized handicapping sysem, why enter the data into excell manually...how about just going from handicapping program to betting program...it can be done.

Joe M

[VetScratch]

Sounds great, Joe! Is this where the beta testers sign up?

Ouch... Jaguar, you almost knocked me over! :)

[PaceAdvantage]

Joe, I suggest you let me recommend who the beta testers should be.....

In any event, where do I have to open an account to use your program....I'm damn serious!

[PaceAdvantage]

BTW VetScratch, you never replied to my declaration that I am using DTN as my quote provider. You scoffed at my bandwidth usage before you knew who I was using. You said it sounded as if I was subscribed to some scam-type operator, and not some "valid" quote farm like DTN....well....it is DTN....

Whatcha gotta say?

[Jaguar]

Joe, congratulations! Sounds like a breakthrough. Glad it was one of our own handicapping community that initiated this project.

I think you're going to hit one out of the park.

Perhaps you will eventually let VS or another one of our talented pros on PA review your new utility once you have issued it.

You always write nice lean code- lean and mean- and your programs run fast because of it.

All The Best,

Jaguar

[VetScratch]

PA,

What we get on our PCs is derived from the industry broadcast feeds by the ticker factories. I was obviously joking about the Random Quotes Ticker... then, after I said, "just kidding," I put a plug in for DTN... so your use of DTN-IQ reflects well on you. You couldn't have made a better choice! Hail DTN!

Incidentally, the way DTN-IQ is implemented is just what Game Theory suggests for wagering providers... DTN client software on your PC feeds data streams to the various DTN applications that you can subscribe to for a fee. Whether the racing industry will make a similar investment remains to be seen.

As a result, traffic comparisons between DTN and SuperTote are like comparing apples to oranges. One system is designed to do what we would like get from the racing industry, the other is designed for interactive browser users. You get much more useful/new data in your 7MB streamed from DTN than a program gets in 7MB of responses to thousands of repetitive requests for toteboard data.

[PaceAdvantage]

Why do I always seem to miss the joke these days? Where has my darn sense of humor (or is it humour) gone?

[cj]

Originally posted by Jaguar

...Perhaps you will eventually let VS or another one of our talented pros on PA review your new utility once you have issued it...


How is Vet a pro? To the best of my knowledge, she hasn't posted a single selection...ever! She talks a good game, but who know?

[formula_2002]

Have a few details to clear away, not the least is the “user friendly portion” and the “black box”.

Looking down the road a bit...

For years I have manually scanned the “live” exacta matrix board into excel, ran it through some formulas and tried to find optimal bets. This was a bit cumbersome. The best I could tell, it was not profitable.
Now that I have gotten off of my script writing butt, I can see how the exacta matrix board can be down loaded into excel. The calculations can be performed and the bets made.
Perhaps a few bets, possibly all, could be made on the “last flash” before post time.
That may help the profitability. (I doubt it, but not everyone will.)

[VetScratch]

CJ,

I sense you are not enamored by the same personality trait that bothers some other members: VS doesn't know what she doesn't know! My mom might agree with you. :)

Here's a tidbit. Many folks suppose that SHAPE was forced to move to the Belgian border in 1967 after deGaulle ranted that non-French troops were not welcome on French soil. The real story is far more petty. There used to be an annual rivalry ballgame between student teams from SHAPE and the American Community School in Paris. At the Boulogne field in 1966, an ACSP player hit a walk-off homerun over the brick wall in right field... the ball crashed through the greenhouse roof in the neighboring estate where Madame deGaulle was tending to her orchids. Since it was a walk-off homerun, all that Madame deGalle saw were the SHAPE uniforms in the field... and the rest is history. :)

[cj]

VS.

You could be the best bettor in the world, I was just saying that we have no way to know, because you never really discuss actual handicapping or post selections.

As for the SHAPE story, what the hell are you talking about? I was not yet alive when it takes place! :D

[VetScratch]

CJ,

My "understanding" from someone who attended ACSP is that the ballgame story was vaulted into student legend by one of Art Buchwald's columns in the International Herald Tribune, which was required reading by everyone in the English-speaking community, and ACSP kids were mainly dependents of English-speaking diplomats and businessmen.

I retold the legend as it was told to me.

Apparently Buchwald heard the ballgame story because it was an athletic highlight for the ACSP kids and was sorely missed after it was discontinued. Buchwald, of course, was a reknowned political humorist and satirist, who used the humorous anecdote to parody the imperious nature of Grand Charles' leadership. The kids simply latched onto the story for the fun of it because the story of how the ballgame ended is supposedly true. Whether Buchwald confirmed Madame deGaulle's actual presence may be debatable for his purpose as a political satirist.

BTW, I don't know any value players who focus on selecting winners... selecting profitable wagering propositions is the only way to beat other pari-mutuel players... the horses have a hard enough time earning their keep without ever contributing a dime to any player's pocket. :)

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by formula_2002

Next step.

Set up an excel file with track, race number, program number, minuets to post, and min. odds.

The players enter all the data into an excell file before he goes to work ( with all this play they will need the day job).

One click should import the data to the program.
from there on in it's all up to the horse(s).

Joe M

done.

next and last step..buliding the black box.

[lousycapperII]

Originally posted by VetScratch
CJ,

Selecting profitable wagering propositions is the only way to beat other pari-mutuel players. :)

Ms. VetScratch,

:D Oh boy, doesn't the truth hurt when folks around here are confronted with it? Who needs to post selections? You can use the DRF and a dart board and post selections until "who" laid a rail. It don't prove nuthin' if it ain't makin' any "green"! If you don't post you're ridiculed; if you do post you're ridiculed. Conclusion fa-getta-bout' it! :D

-LCII

[Bubbles]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
How is Vet a pro? To the best of my knowledge, she hasn't posted a single selection...ever! She talks a good game, but who know?

Not true. Remember the BC Contest? ;)

[chrisg]

Originally posted by Bubbles
Not true. Remember the BC Contest? ;)


10) cato-$70
9) eclecticapper-$212.40
8) gene-$315
7) Bubbles-$521
6) P.A.-$680
5) Tom-$686
4) MarylandPaul@HSH-$786
3) chrisg-$1,014
2) SilverSow-$1,400
1-SPEED FIGURE-$2,220.60

Where's Vet?

[Bubbles]

It was a joke regarding the "-"s and "/"s she put for supers. Had to read her post to understand it. No offense, Vet, just kidding around with ya.

[Jaguar]

CJ, in answer to your comment/question regarding VS's handicapping ability.

I have alot of respect for some of the handicappers who post on this board, including VS- who impresses me as a brilliant woman that has a tremendous familiarity with horse racing- due to her family background on the backstretch, as well as due to her sophisticared approach to betting and handicapping.

It's scarey- for me- to think that I may, from time to time, be involved in a betting pool in which VS is also participating- as I do not want to make her wealthier than she already is.

VS has an unfair advantage in the racing game, because she is more intelligent than many of the handicappers out there, including yours truly.

But, in my own defense, I will say that when I handicap I do use some powerful tools- and as far as structuring a bet goes, I didn't just fall off the turnip truck yesterday.

The fact that VS looks hot in a bathing suit is irrelevant- sort of.

I applaud your work in helping to defend our country. We need more guys like you- who aren't afraid to step up and take responsibility for defending our freedoms. Keep the faith!

All The Best,

Jaguar

[keilan]

Few quick question for you.

1) Have ever met VS in person?
2) And if so have you ever spent time together wagering on horses.
3) Does she discuss her wealth with you and how it was earned?

[PaceAdvantage]

I'd like an answer to those questions as well, even though this takes this thread wildly off topic, and I would hate to see that, since I am wildly interested in Joe's progress with his betting program.

How about it Jaguar....something smells a bit odd.....

[VetScratch]

PA,

Are you being candid with us? Unless you were impersonated by a prankster, you recently backed out of booking a meeting at AQU after my personal secretary emailed you a ballpark estimate of costs to bring me and my posse to NYC for a pro bono appearance.

In fact, the SWAG (i.e., stuff we all get) suggestions that she listed were purposely modest, as per my instructions, because I wanted to thank you for hosting this board. :) :) :) :)

[PaceAdvantage]

Hey Tom, can we get some "pre-numbered" responses that I can use to reply to VetScratch?

Make sure you include this one:

00: What in the world are you talking about?



I think I'm going to be using that one the most! :rolleyes:

[Jaguar]

Keilan, in answer to your questions:

1. No

2. No

3. No

Moreover, all my comments were based upon VS's posts, since she started participating on this board.

All The Best,

Jaguar

[Jaguar]

PA, your reasoning escapes me... I am also a fan of Joe M., Nathan, CJ, Game Theory, Larry Hamilton, and anyone who posts intelligent comments about the horse game.

VS impresses me as one smart cookie.

I've been hopelessly hooked by this, the greatest game in the world, for more than 20 years. Hope I can keep handicapping- and learning about horse racing- till they put my remains in the box at the mortuary, and start the conveyer belt.

Once the belt start moving and the gas oven doors open, I'll know it's over. Until then, who do you like in the 4th at Aqueduct today?

My motto is: "A day at Belmont is like a day in Heaven".

All The Best,

Jaguar

[JimG]

A black box created for horse racing that does what it is pre-programmed to do without user intervention. Simply amazing! Would take a lot of the fun out of racing for me, but simply amazing.

JimG

[keilan]

Thanks for your response

You have answered NO to the questions I have asked of you yet you are able to make statements as though you actually had first hand knowledge.

who impresses me as a brilliant woman that has a tremendous familiarity with horse racing- due to her family background on the backstretch, as well as due to her sophisticared approach to betting and handicapping.

as I do not want to make her wealthier than she already is.

Where in the hell does stuff like this come from?

VS has an unfair advantage in the racing game, because she is more intelligent than many of the handicappers out there, including yours truly.

Not that the statement might not be true but I how don't see how you are qualified to draw that conclusion from what VS has posted.

The fact that VS looks hot in a bathing suit is irrelevant- sort of.

Do you really think those avatars are representative of what VS looks like. Instead of acting like a puppy dog in heat, you had better find out if your fantasy is in fact a woman or someone impersonating one.

Jag - what if VS is an older gentleman who likes to wear women's undergarments at the computer while cranking out 20 post per day on a horse-players website?

How do ya like that visual!

Keep the faith baby!

[Jaguar]

Keilan, apparently we have different opinions of Vs's old posts- in which she goes to considerable length to explain her background in horse racing.

I believe her to be candid and sincere.

My opinion of Marcus, on the other hand...

Oh well, that's what makes politics, commodities futures contracts, and horse racing- different opinions.

By the way, have you noticed that in 6f Allowance Sprints at Monmouth Park, the horse which is leading at the 1/2 mile pole wins 82% of the time. This is the single strongest statistic I have found in many years of handicapping.

All The Best,

Jaguar

[VetScratch]

Keilan,
Jag - what if VS is an older gentleman who likes to wear women's undergarments at the computer while cranking out 20 post per day on a horse-players website?What if VS is dreading 40, definitely female, and likes to occasionally trifle with fools like you on the Internet? Do you have a problem with that? :) :) :) :)

[keilan]

And what if your not? ;)

I told you very soon after our first encounter that I was done with you, and believe me nothing has changed.:) :) :) :)

[JimG]

Originally posted by Jaguar


By the way, have you noticed that in 6f Allowance Sprints at Monmouth Park, the horse which is leading at the 1/2 mile pole wins 82% of the time. This is the single strongest statistic I have found in many years of handicapping.



Not to detract from all the "fun" everyone is having, but this same thing can be said for greyhound racing in 5/16 mile races. While it is nice to know such statistics, correctly identifying the horse/dog that will be in the lead in advance of the race, is what's it all about.

JimG

[Steve 'StatMan']

Formula2002

Good luck with your work on the automated wagering system. For now, 1 persons use of bandwith isn't going to be a factor. Should you or someone create a sensation that causes problems, you can work on optimizations or pay-for-data-stream updates later. Don't let others concerns, well intended and valid in the very long haul or not, stop you on your quest for success.

Remember, it was more important that the Wright Brothers built their first successful airplane, than to worry about whether there would be a connected network of airports and air-traffic controllers.

[Tom]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
Hey Tom, can we get some "pre-numbered" responses that I can use to reply to VetScratch?

Make sure you include this one:

00: What in the world are you talking about?


I think I'm going to be using that one the most! :rolleyes:

11 What in the world are you talking about?
12 What in the world are you smoking?
13 A little early in the day for cocktails, isn't it?
14 You make me crazy!
15 English is the official language on this board, please.
16 Wake up! You are sleep-posting again!
17 Say that again.....no, wait. Never mind!
18 *Groan*

[chrisg]

Originally posted by Jaguar


The fact that VS looks hot in a bathing suit is irrelevant- sort of.

Jaguar

1-she's 60+ years old & hot in a bathing suit?

2-she thinks it's funny to use THE Pearl Harbor attack date as her d.o.b.?

3-she's a brilliant handicapper because she never posted a selection on this board?

you recently backed out of booking a meeting at AQU after my personal secretary emailed you a ballpark estimate of costs to bring me and my posse to NYC for a pro bono appearance. by VS

You have a posse and you're intelligent? Where the heck do you live that you have travel costs? Why can't the beautiful, well-versed, expert handicapper afford to travel?

Sounds more n more like the infamous alydar

[VetScratch]

chrisg,

My fun-loving posse consists of Gabrielle, Argo, two or three gophers, a modest personal staff, and as many good-time friends as the market will bear. Upbeat teamwork is required to generate a constant stream of pompous demands for extraordinary pampering. Like it or not, modern celebrity status is measured by the privs, perks, and swag that you coerce from promoters and hosts. When your list of preposterous hospitality expectations stops growing, you are already on the steep downward slope back to oblivion and quiet desperation. :D :D

BTW, what if I had listed my birthday as December 31, 1946? I rather doubt that most folks would have realized it was fictitious although it was officially the final day of WW-II.

I have privately given Joe (Formula_2002) my advice if he desires to offer his program as a commercial product. Because he has been building his database from relatively expensive $7/$10/$14 AllWays downloads, I suggested that he target the upscale end of the market rather than invite customer service aggrevation from folks who want to dabble with his program. Providing that he crafts a professional solution to automated value-play wagering, I am confident that he would be able to license his product for at least $600 per month to many serious value players, as opposed to lowballing it to a larger audience who will toy with it instead of generating serious wagering action and enthusiastic support from wagering services.

[Tom]

$600 a month for a program by a guy who claims you cannot make money at this game?

:confused:

[VetScratch]

Tom,

The program targets folks who can make money with it, and $600 per month should be viewed as a bargain... probably a higher fee should be charged if the program completely automates wagering and runs unattended throughout the day.

What would you say if Joe was able to demonstrate a nice profit after 2,000 automated wagers while he worked on the interfaces to additional wagering services?

If he targets an audience that fails to generate a lot of handle, he will only meet resistance from the wagering services.

[Larry Hamilton]

Only one person on this board said he couldnt make a profit--HIMSELF!

Now he wants to automate his losses...geez I musta missed something in the middle.

I have no trouble with him setting the cost of his product. I hope he has no trouble with me setting the value/risk.

[GameTheory]

Anybody willing to spend $600 a month to automate betting has already automated it. It really isn't that hard....

[formula_2002]

Tom, Larry, et al. If I wish to market the product I would hope only those players that can make a profit (that would exclude me)
would purchase it.

I realize that I'm playing to a very limited market.



Gt, is right. Its not a difficult program to write.. Neither was the second voyage to the Americas.

Vet, I'll be preparing the next few days for my two week trip to Hawaii (oh the money you can save by not betting).
When I get back, I'll look into your recommendations.

Joe M



Joe M

[GameTheory]

Formula, if you are implying you are the first to attempt (or succeed) to automate betting, you are wrong. There are a number of people right on this board that already have automated betting. (Isn't that where you got the idea?) And there has been a product detailing how to do it with Automate that is several years old already. Some services would be tougher to automate than others, and of course none of them would actually encourage the idea, but we're only talking about a few hours of programming work. This is not a major breakthrough...

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by GameTheory
....... but we're only talking about a few hours of programming work.

Go for it!

[GameTheory]

Been there, done that. My whole system is automated -- from data aquistion/management to handicapping to tote watching to betting. I've got all the parts, but they aren't all working together quite yet. So I'm not in total hands free mode, but I'm getting there. But the betting automation is the easiest part...

[VetScratch]

My concept of a commericial solution probably encompasses many more features than virtually any privateers have implemented.

The scope and means of defining wagering rules need careful consideration for unattended systems. Numerous contingencies need to be detected, considered, and resolved without human intervention when you provide the system with 90 races and 775 horses to evaluate while you go to a Cubs game. Many value players have a complex set of race-level and horse-level conditions that must be satisfied in order to trigger wagering tactics. For example, do you pass races when the toteboard favorite is under an odds-ceiling by track and race type, do you bet multiple overlays, how do you handle off-turf and off-track circumstances, etc.

The recent squabbles about signals are another example of the kind of issues that a commercial product should handle. A commercial product should enable users to to configure and activate simultaneous interfaces with more than one supported wagering service. Right now, at least two simultaneous wagering services are a necessity because of the squabbling.

Another feature for a commercial system would be a flexible logging system similar to the better firewalls. The idea is to offer user selectable levels of event logging and review facilities. When users start playing any service, they will want to review detailed logs that show them exactly when and how all handicapped horses compared to the last toteboard update so that they can verify that all wagering conditionals were observed and that all decisions were made at the proper time.

Of course, wagering rules should be configurable by track and race type, and all such updates should be logged to avoid silly customer service confrontations. Beyond normal confirmed wagers, all wagering exceptions also need logging since tracks are bound to fiddle with stop wagering times if any more past-posting controversies erupt, and some attempts to wager as late as possible are bound to get shut out due to heavy traffic, or due to rule settings for decision times (e.g., first odds update after minutes-to-post becomes zero).

If you think through what a good product for unattended wagering should ideally provide beyond the functions originally posted by Formula_2002, you soon realize that the bulk of his development project must address the vast difference between a homegrown program and a commercial product that is truly feature-rich and supports the customer service objectives of both the vendor and users.

I encouraged Formula_2002 carry on with his product development efforts.

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by GameTheory
Been there, done that. My whole system is automated -- from data aquistion/management to handicapping to tote watching to betting. I've got all the parts, but they aren't all working together quite yet. So I'm not in total hands free mode, but I'm getting there. But the betting automation is the easiest part...

excellent

[GameTheory]

VS --

I've implemented more or less all that, albeit for my own purposes. (Complex trigger mechanism, extensive logging, error-checking & recovery, etc.) What it doesn't have is a fancy user interface and "extra user friendliness" which is what the bulk of development time would be needed for with a commercial product (at least one that cost very much).

Trying to make the ultimate commercial version without the support of any of the wagering services seems like a recipe for disaster though. Better to make custom versions privately for one individual at a time with the understanding that the rug could be pulled out at any time...

[Tom]

As a potential buyer/subscriber, what sample size, showing a profit (including the $600 per month fee and cost of all data, etc, should I expect to be provided up front?

[LOU M.]

Where did anyone get the idea that an automated betting interface has to produce profits? The program is merely executing the wager,correct.The bettor is making the picks.If i'm missing something please let me know.
Thanks, Lou M.

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by LOU M.
Where did anyone get the idea that an automated betting interface has to produce profits? The program is merely executing the wager,correct.The bettor is making the picks.If i'm missing something please let me know.
Thanks, Lou M.

YOU GOT IT CORRECT LOU.

However, I'm sure there is a market for automated exacta matrix borad analysis combimed with automated betting.
Is it profitable ? I doubt it. Will people buy it? I'm certain of it.

Joe M

[Tom]

You mean for $600 a month I have to pick my own winners??

[Holy Bull]

No offence, but you could charge 1/6th of that and I'd be shocked if you ever reached double digit #'s of subscribers.

[VetScratch]

Game Theory,

What you are finishing is certainly an elegant personal system.

What are your thoughts on the rug issue? Do you mean just coping with routine changes and enhancements, or do you envision a true rebuff by the services where they will switch to proprietary client software and refine how the total package of totes/video/wagering are offered and billed to subscribers?

As you advised, maybe Joe should proceed cautiously instead of trying to build a full-blown commercial product. I was hoping to see him truly have a large last laugh after all the time and effort he has devoted to building and analyzing his database.

However, since we both use the same racecard downloads, if Joe decides to proceed with further enhancements for any purpose, I would still be glad to help him successfully demonstrate the capabilities of his program.

I can't recall that we have had a demonstration of extended value play, so everyone should be delighted to watch Joe rack up a profit. :)

[VetScratch]

Originally posted by Holy Bull
No offence, but you could charge 1/6th of that and I'd be shocked if you ever reached double digit #'s of subscribers. I have dealt with quite a few owners who would save much more than $600/month by spending $600/month. A system that runs unattended is exactly what they need instead of ducking into their special horse nook to check a toteboard every 15 minutes. Since all handicapping is done in advance, they would be much better off running their companies than checking toteboards.

From a customer service perspective, 20 @ $600/month is infinitely better than 120 @ $100/month, especially since your only loyal and satisfied customers come from the small market segment of winners. While losers may love horseracing, I find it difficult to believe they will get much satisfaction from missing the races and automating their losses.

[Tom]

12
17

[Steve 'StatMan']

I'd like to take the chances that my selections, on a selective odds basis, would earn a profit. But frankly, I might be interested in one payment of $100-$200 for the priviliege of trying. $600 one time, hard decision, I'd probably pass. But $600 every month. I'd have to run away.

If a betting service provider offered me this, I'd probably want to sign up for their service. And they'd sure charge a lot less. What would YouBet, Ameritab, Pinacle, and XPressBet(pthoey!) charge their actively betting customers per month. Esp. those that already wager enough per month that they get the current service for free? A heck of a lot less than $600. That's why it is tough to be an independent software developer. The programmers don't make the money. The providers do.

Considering all this, maybe I'll just wait until YouBet or the others get enlightend and offer this.

Joe, I know you have to think about what you want to do, and set your own prices. If nothing else, do it for yourself and enjoy it.

[VetScratch]

Tom,

12
17
==
29 - this is a debate club meeting... finish your math homework later!

:D :D :D :D

[VetScratch]

After thinking about things, it occurs to me that a successful commercial product should probably treat the online services like devices.

If you design and build a truly outstanding product from a user-oriented perspective, adding support for specific online services becomes an issue similar to supporting various device types.

The world is full of independently developed user solutions that have gained enough traction in the marketplace to survive and repulse vertical integration efforts by software giants.

Thus, supersetting rather than emulating features and functions provided by online services would seem to be the sensible way to build a commercial wagering support system.

[highnote]

Originally posted by VetScratch
do you bet multiple overlays,

VS,
Just curious, what is the optimal way to bet multiple overlays in a single race. I understand how to do Kelly betting on a single horse, but what is the formula for doing multiple Kelly wagering on multiple overlays on the same race?
Regards,
John Swetye

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by Steve'StatMan'BTW

Joe, I know you have to think about what you want to do, and set your own prices. If nothing else, do it for yourself and enjoy it.

Steve, that is the driving force behind it all, having fun.
Ofcourse, making a few bucks for having fun is not a bad thing.

[VetScratch]

Originally posted by swetyejohn
VS,
Just curious, what is the optimal way to bet multiple overlays in a single race. I understand how to do Kelly betting on a single horse, but what is the formula for doing multiple Kelly wagering on multiple overlays on the same race?
Regards,
John Swetye Except for about the last nine months, most of my play was always through the windows at tracks or OTBs, hanging out with horsemen and/or owners, so I used a simple method that you can estimate in your head when you monitor totes, or even while standing in line.

TP = Toteboard Probability. Adjusted for 17% national-average takeout (+ breakage), I built a cheat-sheet conversion table and made several laminated double-sided copies, about the size of a credit card, and use it as needed to convert toteboard odds to probabilities (e.g, 3/2 = 33%, 3/1 = 20%, 20/1 = 04%).

HP = Handicapped Probability. The probability equivalents that print beside my handicapped overlay-plateau odds.

For any overlay, you mentally estimate HP/TP as a multiplier (e.g., 15/10 = 1.5 or 15/07 = "about" 2.1). You can think of your multiplier estimate as a measure of premium value. The idea is to bet your $BaseUnit * Multiplier (rounded to a convenient value, like the nearest multiple of $10). This means your wager increases as premium value increases.

Unless I am helping owners find plays, I usually pass on any premium (multiplier) less than about 1.5. Among horsemen, you are always at the races, so plenty of opportunities will come your way in the course of a year.

Using my method, if you have multiple overlays among your "contenders," the constraint on betting more than one is that the worst payoff should exceed the sum of all wagers (i.e., the sum of all wagers calculated as $BaseUnit * Multiplier).

Precise optimized betting on multiple horses would require "geek" tools (like a laptop or progammable calculator), and they just don't fit into "social coterie" where I hang out. I almost always just bet the overlay with the highest premium (multiplier), and then use the group of overlaid contenders in exotic part-wheels.