The Map

[lsbets]

The national polls look good for Romney, but the electoral map look good for Obama.

On the RCP no toss up map, its Obama 277, Romney 261.

In order for Romney to get there, he has to pick up one decent sized state, or two smaller ones.

Of the bigger states, Ohio is the one everybody is talking about. I just don't see it. The polls have moved towards Romney everywhere but Ohio. I see Obama keeping it. But there have been reports that Dem early voting turnout is way below 2008, and PPP has the best polls for Romney there. Romney's only hope is that the models are way off and he pulls it out in a squeaker.

Pennsylvania has been talked about, but it is always talked about and the Republicans always under perform there vs. expectations on election day. Still Obama.

Romney's best chance for a pickup in a big state is Wisconsin. With Walker's election and the failed recall, the GOP has some momentum there, and Ryan on the ticket helps. Today I saw the first poll putting Thompson ahead in the Senate race. But, Wisconsin is another state where the Reps expect to do well on the Presidential level and fall short. Probably still Obama.

If Romney doesn't get any of those 3, he needs both Nevada and Iowa. RCP doesn't have any polls from NV in the last 5 days, but the GOP is an absolute mess there, as seen by the Sharron Angle disaster. Add in Reid's machine, and it would be hard for Romney to pull it out.

As long as there are no major flubs tonight, the election will come down to ground game and turnout. I do think part of the Obama strategy is to turn off the late deciders (who normally go for the challenger) and get them to stay home instead of vote.

I see this race coming down to Wisconsin, and even with the momentum going Romney's way, I still think Obama is reelected.

[Marshall Bennett]

I question the polling in Ohio. I'll go out on a limb here and say the voters come election day will give the state to Romney, thus sealing Obama's fate before much else even matters that night.

[rastajenk]

I hope it's not even close in Ohio, and that a winner can be declared.

I wouldn't bet on it, though.

[bigmack]

I do think part of the Obama strategy is to turn off the late deciders (who normally go for the challenger) and get them to stay home instead of vote.
What strategy do they employ to keep people at home, ankle bracelets?

[lsbets]

I hope it's not even close in Ohio, and that a winner can be declared.

I wouldn't bet on it, though.

What's your take living there? When I was in Vegas last week I was amazed about the amount of tv ads and am glad I don't live in a swing state. Had to wait on the runway for Biden to take off, the pilot said that's been a daily occurrence with the campaigns.

[lsbets]

What strategy do they employ to keep people at home, ankle bracelets?

Ugliness. Turn off voters so they don't want to vote at all. Look at how they've been campaigning " yeah we suck but he lies". IMO that was the goal in the last debate, not to win over new voters, but to get them to stay home. The easiest path to an Obama victory is to have a low turnout among late deciders, and they know it. The last time they needed to inspire people, to get them out to vote for hope and change. This time they need people to be so depressed they dont show up.

[bigmack]

On the RCP no toss up map, its Obama 277, Romney 261.

http://i1138.photobucket.com/albums/n537/themackster1/RealClearPolitics-2012ElectionMaps-ElectoralMap.png

Where are you getting 277?

[lsbets]

On rcp they have a no toss up option. That map shows 277.

[rastajenk]

The candidates are hitting the state hard, in person and on TV, for sure, but the message here is the same as it is anywhere else:

Obama supporters - "Romney is an unprincipled politician. Obama was dealt a bad hand and has been stymied by the radical right."

Romney supporters - "Obama has failed at everything. Romney has succeeded at every calling."

The unemployment rate is now lower than the national average, so the incumbent will try to mine that for some credit. But we have a Republican state government, so to the extent that any government should get credit for a recovery, it should go to the R's. Obama's War on Coal could hurt in some areas that might usually go for the D's.

Obama will win the big cities, of course, and Romney will take the suburbs and rural areas. That's why this is always such a "battleground." We have lots of both, about equally represented by the demographics. I think, in terms of real, legal votes, that Romney can win the state. But I fear that a "liberal" counting of provisional votes might win it for the Prez.

In 2010, a race for Hamilton County (that's Cincinnati, mostly) Juvenile Court Judge was decided when it was ruled that 300 provisional votes should be counted, a decision that tipped it for the Dem candidate. These 300+ votes were cast by persons in the wrong precinct. It was shrugged off in the newspaper accounts as "right church, wrong pew." The idea being sold was that these people went to a location housing more than one precinct, got in the wrong line, and that misinformed, or inadequately trained, poll workers allowed that to happen, and that it wasn't the voters' fault, so they shouldn't be penalized.

Here's the real deal, though, which has gone completely unreported in the news. In 2008, a presidential election, of course, my precinct (the one at which I'm a presiding election official, not the one where I live) had 30 provisional votes cast. It takes longer to process a provisional than a regular voter, and it seemed like that's all I did that day. In 2010, with statewide elections happening, I did 3. That's 3, not 30, not 300; greater than two, less than 4. Yet somehow a precinct in Cincinnati was able to generate more provisionals than there probably were regulars. Every single poll worker in that situation had to be complicit or totally ignorant or spineless to let that occur. The board of elections would have to have delivered additional supplies to that location to handle 300 provisionals, yet apparently no one downtown figured something was amiss. Not only was this allowed to stand, but recently a judge ruled that all provisionals must be counted, a total overreaction to "poll worker error."

It is totally unbelievable, but that is why I keep predicting a messy election. The Dems have plowed the field and are ready to reap whatever is sown. Legally or not...

As an aside, that may not be completely on topic,

[ceejay]

The national polls look good for Romney, but the electoral map look good for Obama.

You provide a reasoned analysis. I know that you do not think much of the Silver model (and it is just a model run through Monte Carlo simulations) but he gives about 5% likelihood today of a split popular-Romney/electoral-Obama. Personally I would take 20-1 on that scenario because I think it is much more likely than 5%.

[lsbets]

You provide a reasoned analysis. I know that you do not think much of the Silver model (and it is just a model run through Monte Carlo simulations) but he gives about 5% likelihood today of a split popular-Romney/electoral-Obama. Personally I would take 20-1 on that scenario because I think it is much more likely than 5%.

I don't know much about Silver's model. I don't put much stock in what he says because he seems to change it based on what he wants to see happen. A few months ago Rasmussen sucked, now Gallup sucks. He's pretty partisan even though he tries to hide it.

There could be a split in the vote. I hope not. That would be bad for the country. There could also in some scenarios be an electoral tie. That would be insane. The house would elect Romney as Pres and the Senate would elect Biden as VP. Could you imagine seeing Biden sitting behind Romney every year at the State of the Union? :lol:

[ceejay]

he seems to change it based on what he wants to see happen. A few months ago Rasmussen sucked, now Gallup sucks. I am no expert on his model and I could be wrong but I don't think the model changes based on desired results. For example, despite the fact that he sees the Gallup poll is an outlier it is still the single most influential national poll in the model. The thing is, his model weighs state polls more heavily. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/18/gallup-vs-the-world/

There are prescribed temporal changes in the model and I do think his model overweights economic fundamentals at this point in the race.

[JustRalph]

The message that Romney is unprincipled is a joke.

Obama has failed at everything. Anything would be better.

Romney has no plan? We've already seen Obama's plan. It doesnt' work

If Obama wins, it only gets worse for him. I will celebrate that fact. The only thing I care about is the Supreme court.

Obama will go down in history as two things.

The first Black Prez.

The man who divided the nation more than any other. Including Lincoln.

I look forward to the Sabotage and stalemate in Congress.

Gridlock is good in case Obama wins.

[boxcar]

The message that Romney is unprincipled is a joke.

Obama has failed at everything. Anything would be better.

Romney has no plan? We've already seen Obama's plan. It doesnt' work

If Obama wins, it only gets worse for him. I will celebrate that fact. The only thing I care about is the Supreme court.

Obama will go down in history as two things.

The first Black Prez.

The man who divided the nation more than any other. Including Lincoln.

I look forward to the Sabotage and stalemate in Congress.

Gridlock is good in case Obama wins.

When has BO ever cared about gridlock? He wields a mighty pen that has written on it "Executive Orders". All he would do is use congressional gridlock as an excuse to justify all the EOs he would issue. Don't forget: We are talking about the Lawless One here who would have zero political capital to lose in a second time.

Boxcar

[PaceAdvantage]

The message that Romney is unprincipled is a joke.

It certainly is...when was the last time Obama was pictured firing up a chainsaw to help dig a stump out of someone's yard?

This was back in 2007...

http://www.cbsnews.com/2300-505263_162-10011979-3.html?tag=page;next

Then again, I believe the homeowner was Mormon, and his son was friend's with Mitt Romney's son...but still...freakin' billionaires are supposed to be home setting $100 bills on fire in their spare time, not digging out stumps, right maddog?

[Greyfox]

Obama will go down in history as two things.

The first Black Prez.

The man who divided the nation more than any other. Including Lincoln.

.

Hold on to your seat belts.

Obama may go down in history as three things.

The "Donald" claims to be making a BIG ANNOUNCEMENT
this week about the President, possibly on Wednesday.

See video at this link:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82701.html

[PaceAdvantage]

You would think Donald Trump would tire of embarrassing himself. Hopefully, he fails me on that expectation this time around, but I won't be holding my breath.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I think he must be looking for free advertising on Saturday Night Live.

[RaceBookJoe]

You would think Donald Trump would tire of embarrassing himself. Hopefully, he fails me on that expectation this time around, but I won't be holding my breath.

Yeah no kidding, why do i see Geraldo Rivera in my mind :bang:

[Greyfox]

Romney's campaign has momentum.

Here's hoping that whatever Trump is up to, doesn't slow the express.

[Actor]

Gridlock is good in case Obama wins.We've had gridlock for the last four years. I predict it will continue no matter who wins. :bang:

Just wait and see.

[HUSKER55]

Between Solardyne and battery plant fiasco in Michigan, I am not sure I would count on them going democrat.

After the recall election it will be interesting to see how this election turns out in Wisconsin. We are in the black and almost everyone is pleased with that, but still...