Consistency of Horses

[HTRFGuy]

When we handicap from the DRF published form we scan the past performances and mentally integrate the results of the horses past performances. In computer handicapping, it seems to me that this information is not explicitly integrated into the process. Some programs required the selection of a single running line. Others incorporate, or at least display, multiple running lines.

Have others thought about how this information can be incorporated in a methodical and rigorous manner into the output?

It seems to me that horses who exhibit consistency should somehow be elevated in ranking, perhaps reflected in the horses odds for those who make an odds line?

The variance in any single horses past performances are usually greater than, if not significantly greater then, the differences in projected performance between the days entries/matchups.

[trying2win]

HTRFG,

--Here's the quote from the last paragraph of your post on CONSISTENCY OF HORSES:

"The variance in any single horses past performances are usually greater than, if not significantly greater then, the differences in projected performance between the days entries/matchups."


-I'm sure you didn't intend it that way, but the paragraph you wrote could easily be interpreted as an example of gobbledygook. I don't get it. Could you please explain again what you meant? This time preferably in layman's language.


Thank you,

T2W

[GameTheory]

It means if you did something like pick single pacelines for each horse to project today's performance, and looked at the relative advantage/disadvantages compared to the field; you might find that if looked over the past X performances of a single horse, the differences between those performances is often more substantial than the projected advantage/disadvantage.

That any clearer? I didn't think so.

Here's an example. Let's say we rate every horse off their last speed figure:


Horse A -- 95
Horse B -- 91
Horse C -- 92
Horse D -- 96


Pretty tight spread -- 5 points covers the whole field. Now let's look at Horse A's last 10 speed figures:

95
85
105
98
93
92
99
87
95
91

Can you see the problem of choosing a 95 for this horse even though it is close to an average figure for him? Two races back he had an 85, but the one before that a 105 -- a huge spread in just his last 3 races.

[trying2win]

GT,

--From your explanation, it appears that it can misleading to just compare one paceline for each horse. I'm guessing the conclusion is, to look at a horse's overall performances to get a better picture of their ability.


Thanks,

T2W

[kenwoodallpromos]

My analysis of consistency is simply over 50% ITM in the PP lines, and top 2 races ITM.

[BIG HIT]

Hi the problem with that is you don't say your excludeing trouble line's.Or bad trip's which would make a hugh difference in figure.Or just out classed you wouldn't expect a 25claimer to run his 90 when entered in a grade3 race.?