View Full Version : this game getting real tough
lamboguy
10-16-2012, 04:58 PM
yesterday i watched $5000 come out of the show pool in a Harrington race once the horse broke stride.
today i watched the same $5000 come out of the win pool in the last race at Finger lakes on GURDARSH once he broke bad.
i am a degenerate horse player, but take my word for it i am not a sucker. i know when i am getting had.
acorn54
10-16-2012, 05:05 PM
my suggestion is to phase out of horserace betting into other areas if you must gamble. such as fantasy football or real football/sports betting, where you can still use your mind for analysis with numbers.
personally i see very few races nowadays, every week that have value to bet into. there is not enough competition in the bulk of the races to spread the wagering money over 3 or more serious contenders in a race.
Someone cancelled a significant wager on Gurdarsh but it was before the gates opened. And it would appear that the amount cancelled did not exceed $2000, at least in the period when I can say with essentially full confidence that the gates had not yet opened.
edmond1
10-16-2012, 05:54 PM
yesterday i watched $5000 come out of the show pool in a Harrington race once the horse broke stride.
today i watched the same $5000 come out of the win pool in the last race at Finger lakes on GURDARSH once he broke bad.
i am a degenerate horse player, but take my word for it i am not a sucker. i know when i am getting had.
Remember people live at track have at least a 5 second advantage over anyone else ..... Horses have gone at least 25 lengths by the time you see it on DN feed. We need faster feeds to reduce their advantage ......
davew
10-16-2012, 06:14 PM
I am not sure any came out
I thought I saw around $6K with 1 minute
and closed at around $10K, and other contenders got 'overlay' money
edmond1
10-16-2012, 06:15 PM
Also note in the case of Finger Lakes that Betfair players could be playing with the tote odds in order to gain an advantage on the exchange....
thespaah
10-16-2012, 06:18 PM
yesterday i watched $5000 come out of the show pool in a Harrington race once the horse broke stride.
today i watched the same $5000 come out of the win pool in the last race at Finger lakes on GURDARSH once he broke bad.
i am a degenerate horse player, but take my word for it i am not a sucker. i know when i am getting had.
This is why I advocate an "All wagers are final" rule for the entire country.
This idea of being able to cancel wagers is ludicrous.
If wagering were at fixed odds, no problem. Since the money in the pool is shared by all the successful wagers, then cancelling is cheating the other bettors. It is cheating the others because those cancelled bets skew the odds which we all know full and well many bettors use odds as a criteria to make their wagering choices. In fact many experienced players use the odds to make judgements as to whether or not a solid horse has the appropriate value to make the play.
With all due deference to large budget players, this practice MUST end.
I am not sure any came out
I thought I saw around $6K with 1 minute
and closed at around $10K, and other contenders got 'overlay' money
Some money definitely came off of the favourite, as per the image that I posted. Between one minute to post and zero minutes, the total win pool increased only from $10,426 to $10,925 yet the odds on the #2 went up to 3/5 from 1/5 in that span. For that to occur, a cancellation of somewhere between $1000-$2000 had to take place from the #2's win pool.
However, cancelling even $2000 before the gates open-- and there's no doubt it was before the gates opened-- is a far cry from the original claim that somebody cancelled $5000 after the race had already started.
therussmeister
10-16-2012, 07:58 PM
I was thinking that the person who allegedly cancelled $5,000 may have actually lost money. Wanted to bet $1,000 on the favorite, bet $6,000 to manipulate the odds and discourage others from betting the horse, cancelled $5,000 at the last minute, and lost $1,000.
precocity
10-16-2012, 09:34 PM
yesterday i watched $5000 come out of the show pool in a Harrington race once the horse broke stride.
today i watched the same $5000 come out of the win pool in the last race at Finger lakes on GURDARSH once he broke bad.
i am a degenerate horse player, but take my word for it i am not a sucker. i know when i am getting had.
dam lambo thought you owned and ran horses? I am not the one to judge i have spent the rent and all kinda bill money on the horses!! but that was 2002 now I have a system either I win or fight for another day!!!
HuggingTheRail
10-16-2012, 09:43 PM
yesterday i watched $5000 come out of the show pool in a Harrington race once the horse broke stride.
today i watched the same $5000 come out of the win pool in the last race at Finger lakes on GURDARSH once he broke bad.
i am a degenerate horse player, but take my word for it i am not a sucker. i know when i am getting had.
How do you know ir's the same - is it yours?? :confused: :confused:
MightBeSosa
10-17-2012, 01:32 AM
I was thinking that the person who allegedly cancelled $5,000 may have actually lost money. Wanted to bet $1,000 on the favorite, bet $6,000 to manipulate the odds and discourage others from betting the horse, cancelled $5,000 at the last minute, and lost $1,000.
I have nothing against someone being able to cancel a bet made in error, but anyone found to be doing the above should be cut off for life by whoever handles the account.
Of course, the may be loathe to hurt their own business that way, so if you see it , report it to the state commission.
I haven't seen this myself at the bigger ovals, in fact, I noticed very few significant cancels, and usually its an obvious error, not a manipulation.
I looked at that screen shot. It's not even clear that there was a cancel at all. Not from the data presented. There may have been a few 0 min flashes not shown , but with the pool almost tripling, 3/5 to 6/5 is not that big of a deal.
3/5 = 64% 6/5 = 45%.
Considering that it was probably a major underlay at 3/5, no cancel would be needed for the late adjustment money to move the odds exactly as they did .
MightBeSosa
10-17-2012, 01:42 AM
Remember people live at track have at least a 5 second advantage over anyone else ..... Horses have gone at least 25 lengths by the time you see it on DN feed. We need faster feeds to reduce their advantage ......
Yep, they know who the winner is 5 seconds before we do.
racingfan378
10-17-2012, 02:01 AM
This is why I advocate an "All wagers are final" rule for the entire country.
This idea of being able to cancel wagers is ludicrous.
If wagering were at fixed odds, no problem. Since the money in the pool is shared by all the successful wagers, then cancelling is cheating the other bettors. It is cheating the others because those cancelled bets skew the odds which we all know full and well many bettors use odds as a criteria to make their wagering choices. In fact many experienced players use the odds to make judgements as to whether or not a solid horse has the appropriate value to make the play.
With all due deference to large budget players, this practice MUST end.
with respect, i disagree. sometimes crap happens in the post parade or someone acting up in the gate and i want the ability to cancel a bet due to what i see going on. with that being said i think there should be a limit to who can cancel what.
a max of $250 per ticket in the WPS pool should be issued etc so the odds cant be easily changed. if someone likes a horse that much then let them pound 20 tickets total to get that $5k bet down
this way, with each $250 ticket that gets processed, it prevents a whale from wanting a big bet cancelled in 5 seconds and IF A TRACK ALLOWS MORE THAN $250 on a single bet, then there needs to be mutuel management and stewards (at the host track) joint decision to cancel the bet.
SharpCat
10-17-2012, 02:46 AM
I disagree with All wagers are final. I wonder how much money was cancelled on Life at Ten? Imagine you went all in on Life at Ten and you hear Johny V. telling the whole world she's not warming up right.
I looked at that screen shot. It's not even clear that there was a cancel at all. Not from the data presented. There may have been a few 0 min flashes not shown , but with the pool almost tripling, 3/5 to 6/5 is not that big of a deal.
3/5 = 64% 6/5 = 45%.
Considering that it was probably a major underlay at 3/5, no cancel would be needed for the late adjustment money to move the odds exactly as they did .
The cancellation occurred before that, when the horse moved to 3/5 from 1/5 despite the win pool increasing by only 5% in that interval. Impossible without a significant cancellation.
I'm not going to get into all of the math but the absolute maximum amount of money that could've been in Gurdarsh's win pool at the 0MTP interval is $5609. The absolute minimum at 1MTP is $6603. So there was at least $1000 of net cancellation in that interval. It's quite possible that someone cancelled an amount as large as $2000.
As noted earlier, this is very different from Lamboguy's contention that $5000 was cancelled after the gate opened; there is no evidence of such an event. There was actually a net increase of ~$4000 in Gurdarsh's win pool between 0MTP and the close of wagering.
BTW, when you calculate pool percentages remember to factor the takeout. A 3/5 shot at Finger Lakes-- where the WPS takeout is 18%-- has anywhere from about 45.8%-51.2% of the win pool, not 64%. A 6/5 has somewhere between 34.2%-37.2%.
thespaah
10-17-2012, 04:38 PM
with respect, i disagree. sometimes crap happens in the post parade or someone acting up in the gate and i want the ability to cancel a bet due to what i see going on. with that being said i think there should be a limit to who can cancel what.
a max of $250 per ticket in the WPS pool should be issued etc so the odds cant be easily changed. if someone likes a horse that much then let them pound 20 tickets total to get that $5k bet down
this way, with each $250 ticket that gets processed, it prevents a whale from wanting a big bet cancelled in 5 seconds and IF A TRACK ALLOWS MORE THAN $250 on a single bet, then there needs to be mutuel management and stewards (at the host track) joint decision to cancel the bet.
Betting on line is the only gambling avenue where a bet can be withdrawn.
Except in craps. One can take down certain wagers according to the rules.
So why should betting on a race on-line be any different?
If there is an error, fine. But then it must apply to ALL. Including on track. I am almost certain that once one walks away from the window the wagers are final.
The fact that people wagering on line can cancel bets at the last second and make another bet at the same time raises the red flag of suspicion.
I believe the rules should be simplified. You make the bet, you live with it.
This way ,there is no chance of anyone attempting to manipulate the pools.
duncan04
10-17-2012, 04:48 PM
Betting on line is the only gambling avenue where a bet can be withdrawn.
Except in craps. One can take down certain wagers according to the rules.
So why should betting on a race on-line be any different?
If there is an error, fine. But then it must apply to ALL. Including on track. I am almost certain that once one walks away from the window the wagers are final.
The fact that people wagering on line can cancel bets at the last second and make another bet at the same time raises the red flag of suspicion.
I believe the rules should be simplified. You make the bet, you live with it.
This way ,there is no chance of anyone attempting to manipulate the pools.
There are some of the new self-bet machines at tracks that allow you to cancel a ticket. not sure what if any restrictions there are for that.
edmond1
10-17-2012, 05:56 PM
Yep, they know who the winner is 5 seconds before we do.
Sounds sarcastic to me ???? You bet from home and I bet live at track. See who does better... I never bet on a standardbred breaking yards before the start and I never bet on a thoroughbred acting up in the gate either. I can cancel my wager at least 5 seconds before you can. If you are you just another ?? that thinks these things are unimportant better for me on the long run.
davew
10-18-2012, 12:37 AM
I now see the change from 1/5 to 3/5 with still roughly 10K in pool.
I wonder if 2 was not warming up well and someone decided to lower their exposure. 2's running style is get in lead and stay there until passed and then done - starting in last is doomsday.
Another interesting betting line is the closer and winner 6 - I will need to calculate what percentage of last 2 minute money came in to push from 11/1 to 4/1
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