barn32
10-15-2012, 06:49 PM
Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) said (http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/261935-sen-portman-romney-could-probably-win-election-without-ohio) yesterday that Mitt Romney can win the election without Ohio, but it would be tough. This is an amazing statement for two reasons. First, Portman knows very well that no Republican has ever been elected President without Ohio and this year is unlikely to be different. If Obama wins all the states the Democrats have won the past five presidential elections, he has 242 electoral votes locked down. New Mexico is not really in play any more, giving Obama 247 electoral votes. If he wins Ohio, he has 265. It takes 270 to win, so if Obama wins Ohio, he needs to win only one of Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Florida, North Carolina, or Virginia. Romney would have to win all of them without Ohio. New Hampshire has only 4 electoral votes, so if Romney sweeps all of the above but Obama wins New Hampshire, we would have a 269-269 tie and the new House would elect the President, with each state having one vote.
Second, key politicians rarely make such negative statements about their states. Normally, the senator from Ohio would say that he expects Romney to carry Ohio, and not talk about Romney losing the state. Clearly Portman is fairly pessimistic about Romney's chances in Ohio. This assessment is consistent with Romney spending most of the week campaigning in the state and Ryan spending several days there as well.
This is why Portman and Romney are worried. There have been eight polls (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/pres_polls.html) taken entirely after Obama's disastrous presidential debate. In seven of them, Obama is ahead. In the most recent one, by 5 points. In only one of the eight polls was Romney ahead, and then by only 1 point. Averaging all eight polls we get Obama 49%, Romney 46%. Hence all the attention on Ohio.
Link (http://www.electoral-vote.com/)
Second, key politicians rarely make such negative statements about their states. Normally, the senator from Ohio would say that he expects Romney to carry Ohio, and not talk about Romney losing the state. Clearly Portman is fairly pessimistic about Romney's chances in Ohio. This assessment is consistent with Romney spending most of the week campaigning in the state and Ryan spending several days there as well.
This is why Portman and Romney are worried. There have been eight polls (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/pres_polls.html) taken entirely after Obama's disastrous presidential debate. In seven of them, Obama is ahead. In the most recent one, by 5 points. In only one of the eight polls was Romney ahead, and then by only 1 point. Averaging all eight polls we get Obama 49%, Romney 46%. Hence all the attention on Ohio.
Link (http://www.electoral-vote.com/)