PDA

View Full Version : Forget the National Polls, It's All about Nine States


barn32
10-11-2012, 03:56 PM
[A logical analysis]

Forget the National Polls, It's All about Nine States

Despite Mitt Romney's post-debate bump, the fundamentals of the presidential race have not changed. Everything comes down to six big swing states (Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Colorado) as well as three smaller ones (Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire). The result is a race in which both campaigns are ignoring 41 states. Romney's path to the White House is still very limited. He has to win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and probably Virginia to get to 270. If Obama hangs onto Wisconsin--a traditionally blue state--and wins the two western swing states, both of which are historically trending blue, he needs only one of the four biggest swing states. Currently, he still has a substantial lead in Ohio, without which no Republican has ever been elected President.


Link (http://www.electoral-vote.com/)

ArlJim78
10-11-2012, 04:11 PM
maybe you were busy and didn't catch the news, Romney is even or leading in all swing states according to Rasmussen.



The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen
Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by
President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states
collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida,
Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin


but please continue to be over confident, and by all means tell us more about how limited Romney's path is to the White House.

GameTheory
10-11-2012, 04:17 PM
[A logical analysis]

Forget the National Polls, It's All about Nine States

Despite Mitt Romney's post-debate bump, the fundamentals of the presidential race have not changed. Everything comes down to six big swing states (Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Colorado) as well as three smaller ones (Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire). The result is a race in which both campaigns are ignoring 41 states. Romney's path to the White House is still very limited. He has to win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and probably Virginia to get to 270. If Obama hangs onto Wisconsin--a traditionally blue state--and wins the two western swing states, both of which are historically trending blue, he needs only one of the four biggest swing states. Currently, he still has a substantial lead in Ohio, without which no Republican has ever been elected President.


Link (http://www.electoral-vote.com/)He does not still have a substantial lead in Ohio, and some polls even have Romney leading. Several states have been thrown into the toss-up category in the last week that were unthinkable two weeks ago -- Michigan for instance. Two weeks from now we may will be talking about Obama's difficult electoral path. In any case, I think Romney will win Florida and Ohio with no trouble. It is NC, VA, CO, NV that are the questions -- they are all over the place with recent polls. But again, if momentum continues in another couple weeks he may have solid leads in all of those places and it will be states like MI, PA, IA, MO in the balance and it will just be a question of winning or winning big.

FantasticDan
10-11-2012, 05:00 PM
In any case, I think Romney will win Florida and Ohio with no trouble. :confused:

http://dispatchpolitics.dispatch.com/content/blogs/the-daily-briefing/2012/10/11-oct.-12---marist-poll.html

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/florida-poll-obama-49-romney-45

Track Collector
10-11-2012, 05:28 PM
:confused:

http://dispatchpolitics.dispatch.com/content/blogs/the-daily-briefing/2012/10/11-oct.-12---marist-poll.html

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/florida-poll-obama-49-romney-45

The text below is from your first link:

The partisan breakdown of the randomly selected likely voters: 40 percent Democrat and 29 percent for both Republican and independent.

*************

Unless the ratio of political leaning in OH is 40-29-29, this poll is heavily oversampling Dems. Nationally the split is much closer to 33-33-33.

In addition, Romney's voting base is energized, while the Obama base is depressed. That mean's samplers can not use the 2008 voting model to predict this election.

I think Romney will win OH and FL, as Obama's support there is fading fast, as they realize Obama's true intentions.

I believe Romney will win BIG. :jump:

GameTheory
10-11-2012, 05:32 PM
:confused:

http://dispatchpolitics.dispatch.com/content/blogs/the-daily-briefing/2012/10/11-oct.-12---marist-poll.htmlYes, the MSNBC polls favor Obama heavily. No surprise there. Take a look at some of the other polls.

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/florida-poll-obama-49-romney-45And that would be the poll of Florida "residents"? Not even restricted to registered voters, let alone likely ones? (It sounds like that poll was just a student exercise.) Again, look for some corroborating evidence.

In any case, I said "will win", not "is currently winning in the polls". I am forecasting the election, not describing the current state of things. I find it hilarious that each day everyone looks at the current numbers and seems to assume they are going to stay the same for the next month, even though they change daily. So I stand by my statement -- Florida and Ohio are in the bag. Where those other votes are going to come from I'm not yet sure, although it is looking like they might come from ALL the swing states...

ArlJim78
10-11-2012, 08:16 PM
looks like you can cross off Florida from your list and mark it down as red. Romney up by 7 now. read another story today that pollsters are pulling out of Florida now too. the battle there is over.


Barack Obama's lackluster debate performance last week has dramatically altered the presidential race in Florida, with Mitt Romney opening up a decisive 7 percentage point lead, according to a new Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll.


so much for that theory that Paul Ryan was going to really hurt Romney in Florida, you know, because of how he wants to kill old people?

Tom
10-11-2012, 10:50 PM
Romney wins it hands down.
Not close.

ArlJim78
10-12-2012, 10:50 AM
looks like you can add some red paint to Virginia also.

Romney leads by 7 in Virginia (http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/12/Virginia-Poll-Romney-Leads-By-7)

mountainman
10-12-2012, 11:49 AM
looks like you can add some red paint to Virginia also.

Romney leads by 7 in Virginia (http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/12/Virginia-Poll-Romney-Leads-By-7)

Since you and I are so strongly on record with opposite predictions abt the prez election, let's make an agreement. Whichever man turns out to be mistaken posts here the day after that he was COMPLETELY wrong, and gives the other mad props for uncanny powers of prognostication. No excuses, no lamenting the fates or the fickle nature of the voting populace, just a complete, unqualified admission that the other was right. You game?

ArlJim78
10-12-2012, 12:29 PM
Since you and I are so strongly on record with opposite predictions abt the prez election, let's make an agreement. Whichever man turns out to be mistaken posts here the day after that he was COMPLETELY wrong, and gives the other mad props for uncanny powers of prognostication. No excuses, no lamenting the fates or the fickle nature of the voting populace, just a complete, unqualified admission that the other was right. You game?
I have never had any problem admitting I was wrong, so of course I will do the same this time should Romney not win.
But mad props for uncanny powers of prognostication for Obama winning? come on you didn't have to have any special talent to make that claim. everyone and their mothers made that VERY safe prediction. but yes if it makes you feel better I will give you "mad props" should you be correct that the overwhelming favorite pulls this one out.

mountainman
10-12-2012, 12:48 PM
I have never had any problem admitting I was wrong, so of course I will do the same this time should Romney not win.
But mad props for uncanny powers of prognostication for Obama winning? come on you didn't have to have any special talent to make that claim. everyone and their mothers made that VERY safe prediction. but yes if it makes you feel better I will give you "mad props" should you be correct that the overwhelming favorite pulls this one out.

Tx. Love me some mad props. And good luck to your candidate, jim.

ArlJim78
10-12-2012, 01:14 PM
New Hampshire also breaks to Romney


The survey from the American Research Group shows Romney with a 49 percent to 46 percent poll in Florida and a 50 percent to 46 percent lead in New Hampshire, two states that represent a total of 33 electoral votes

Frank DeMartini
10-12-2012, 01:16 PM
Democrats just pulled money from Virginia and Florida to concentrate it in Pennsylvania and Ohio. That's right, they are now worried about Pennsylvania. This is changing almost on a daily basis as we speak.

elysiantraveller
10-12-2012, 01:36 PM
Democrats just pulled money from Virginia and Florida to concentrate it in Pennsylvania and Ohio. That's right, they are now worried about Pennsylvania. This is changing almost on a daily basis as we speak.

Link?

I know some pollsters have left but I don't think they have been conceded.

bigmack
10-12-2012, 01:44 PM
Link?

I know some pollsters have left but I don't think they have been conceded.
Tough to find a link but when you follow the money they've pulled a pile of money out of those two states and wisely, NorthC, since the Pres debate.

NO QUESTION, FL, NC & VI are unattainable for CampBO.

They have to do it quietly though. Pulling up stakes from states is unavoidable in their situation. RUSH to the salvageable.

GameTheory
10-12-2012, 01:44 PM
Yeah, suddenly the map looks pretty good for Romney. On the current "no toss up" RCP map, you only need to flip the razor-thin Obama leads in OH, VA, & NH and Romney's got 279 -- on the RCP averages Obama is up 1.3 in OH, and less than a point in the other two, and Romney is leading in all three on at least some polls...

Tom
10-12-2012, 02:06 PM
Not going to be close.

GameTheory
10-12-2012, 02:24 PM
Not going to be close.That's my feeling. It shouldn't be, anyway. But reality is tricky sometimes...

wes
10-14-2012, 06:17 PM
Is that where the 47 percent lives?

fast4522
10-14-2012, 06:34 PM
I can tell you about New Hampshire, it will go for Romney. Just about the only hot seller around NH is guns, new gun stores everywhere with sales going threw the roof. Not good for Team Obama, the motivation is not going well for the left here in general. Core belief is if your not part of the solution you have to go.

Actor
10-14-2012, 08:19 PM
I can tell you about New Hampshire, it will go for Romney. Just about the only hot seller around NH is guns, new gun stores everywhere with sales going threw the roof. Not good for Team Obama, the motivation is not going well for the left here in general. Core belief is if your not part of the solution you have to go.Where does this idea that Obama is anti-gun come from? As far as I can discover he favors no new gun laws and merely advocates enforcement of existing laws. Is Romney in favor of not enforcing the law? Where and when did Obama make any statement on this subject and exactly what did he say? Ditto Romney.

fast4522
10-14-2012, 08:40 PM
Gun people, at least the law abiding ones do not vote demarcate up here.

johnhannibalsmith
10-14-2012, 08:49 PM
Where does this idea that Obama is anti-gun come from? As far as I can discover he favors no new gun laws and merely advocates enforcement of existing laws. Is Romney in favor of not enforcing the law? Where and when did Obama make any statement on this subject and exactly what did he say? Ditto Romney.

“The president believes we need to take common sense measures that protect the Second Amendment rights of Americans while ensuring that those who should not have guns under existing laws do not get them,” he said. “And there has been progress in that regard in terms of improving the volume and quality of information in background checks.”

The candidates’ positions on gun control, which has been a back burner issue for years now, also seem unlikely to change.

“I’m not going to take away your guns,” Obama promised in September 2008. However, he advocated closing the loophole that allows for gun purchases without background checks at gun shows and for reinstating the assault weapons ban.

...

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has actually been more active than Obama on gun control — albeit during his time in Massachusetts. Since leaving office, he has moved away from those positions.

While running for Senate in Massachusetts in 1994, Romney supported background checks and a ban on some assault weapons. “That’s not going to make me the hero of the NRA,” he said. Running for governor in 2002, he said, “We do have tough gun laws in Massachusetts — I support them. I won’t chip away at them. I believe they help protect us, and provide for our safety.”

As governor, in 2004, signed an assault-weapons ban in the state. However, that law won support from some gun-rights advocates by making it easier to get and renew a firearms license. Romney also raised the state’s gun-registration fee from $25 to $75.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/where-obama-and-romney-stand-on-gun-control/2012/07/20/gJQAwMpNyW_blog.html



Not exactly polar opposites on the subject when it comes to actually governing.

Steve 'StatMan'
10-14-2012, 09:16 PM
Where does this idea that Obama is anti-gun come from? As far as I can discover he favors no new gun laws and merely advocates enforcement of existing laws. Is Romney in favor of not enforcing the law? Where and when did Obama make any statement on this subject and exactly what did he say? Ditto Romney.

I sure remember Obama's diisparagng remark about people clinging to their guns and bibles.

PaceAdvantage
10-14-2012, 09:20 PM
This election really should NOT be close, as GT stated. There is no way Obama should win, let alone win big. That's why these overseas betting lines have shocked me all along. I just could not wrap my head around it.

You have an economy that is still shit. You can spin it anyway you'd like, blame it on the past, but it's still shit. That never favors an incumbent.

Plus, you have a President in Obama who beat McCain/Palin/Bush last time out. It was almost a gimme.

Obama won because of who he was facing and because he promised and talked about a lot of feel-good stuff. Hope and change. People bought into that nonsense.

Now they see he has brought neither hope, nor change, and essentially, has continued many of the prior administrations policies. He has even failed to come through on many of the SPECIFIC promises he made during the campaign (like Gitmo).

So why should he be reelected? He has pissed off his base by being more to the right then they expected, and he has pissed off the independents by bringing neither hope nor change.

NJ Stinks
10-14-2012, 11:31 PM
This election really should NOT be close, as GT stated. There is no way Obama should win, let alone win big. That's why these overseas betting lines have shocked me all along. I just could not wrap my head around it.

You have an economy that is still shit. You can spin it anyway you'd like, blame it on the past, but it's still shit. That never favors an incumbent.

Plus, you have a President in Obama who beat McCain/Palin/Bush last time out. It was almost a gimme.

Obama won because of who he was facing and because he promised and talked about a lot of feel-good stuff. Hope and change. People bought into that nonsense.

Now they see he has brought neither hope, nor change, and essentially, has continued many of the prior administrations policies. He has even failed to come through on many of the SPECIFIC promises he made during the campaign (like Gitmo).

So why should he be reelected? He has pissed off his base by being more to the right then they expected, and he has pissed off the independents by bringing neither hope nor change.

Thanks for the insight. I think I'll change my mind and vote for the man who can't be swayed. :lol: :lol:

I think things are improving. Sue me.

bigmack
10-14-2012, 11:49 PM
I think things are improving. Sue me.
I thought I figured that cerrectly. Sure enough, I went back to my records and it checked out. You Special Agent Federalies are MANDATED to hit the bricks at 57, let alone 50. What an odd thing that must be, retire at 50. But ALL SORTS of government workers do it.

IRS Special Agents are able to retire at the age of 50 given that they've provided at least 20 years of federal law enforcement service, or at any age if they've provided 25 years of such service. Mandatory provisions stipulate that all federal law enforcement personnel retire by the time they're 57 years old with at least 20 years of law enforcement service.

elysiantraveller
10-15-2012, 12:04 AM
I think things are improving. Sue me.

If you don't mind me asking by what metric would you say things are improving?

ElKabong
10-15-2012, 12:11 AM
If you don't mind me asking by what metric would you say things are improving?

NJ thinks part time jobs are the greatest....

NJ Stinks
10-15-2012, 12:14 AM
I thought I figured that cerrectly. Sure enough, I went back to my records and it checked out. You Special Agent Federalies are MANDATED to hit the bricks at 57, let alone 50. What an odd thing that must be, retire at 50. But ALL SORTS of government workers do it.

Only people who carry guns for Uncle Sam can retire at 50 and must retire by age 57, Mack. I wasn't one of those guys.

NJ Stinks
10-15-2012, 12:20 AM
If you don't mind me asking by what metric would you say things are improving?

Less houses in foreclosure around here, more people out shopping, and the restaurants are a lot more crowded than they were two years ago.

Not exactly an exact measurement but that's what I'm seeing.

PaceAdvantage
10-15-2012, 12:28 AM
Less houses in foreclosure around here, more people out shopping, and the restaurants are a lot more crowded than they were two years ago.

Not exactly an exact measurement but that's what I'm seeing.Not so fast there:Though there was a drop in overall foreclosure activity for the month under review, they are bound to increase in the upcoming months due to the $25 billion settlement deal that took place between five mortgage servicers - JPMorgan Chase & Co. ( JPM ), Bank of America Corporation ( BAC ), Citigroup Inc. ( C ), Ally Financial Inc. and Wells Fargo & Company ( WFC ), 49 states' attorneys general and the regulators. The deal will speed up the rate of the foreclosure activities, which was almost frozen until now.Source:
http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2012-03/foreclosures-plunge-will-rise-soon-analyst-blog.aspx?storyid=128293

JustRalph
10-15-2012, 12:49 AM
Less houses in foreclosure around here, more people out shopping, and the restaurants are a lot more crowded than they were two years ago.

Not exactly an exact measurement but that's what I'm seeing.

A big thank you to the "Big Guy"

http://www.state.nj.us/governor/library/photos/gov_christie.jpg

NJ Stinks
10-15-2012, 12:52 AM
Not so fast there:Source:
http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2012-03/foreclosures-plunge-will-rise-soon-analyst-blog.aspx?storyid=128293

Thanks for the link. Not good news.

NJ Stinks
10-15-2012, 12:57 AM
A big thank you to the "Big Guy"

http://www.state.nj.us/governor/library/photos/gov_christie.jpg

It will be interesting to see if he is re-elected governor.

PaceAdvantage
10-15-2012, 01:18 AM
Thanks for the link. Not good news.That story was written six months ago...but it did say "in the months to come" and I had heard something similar just the other day, although I don't recall the source.

ElKabong
10-15-2012, 08:22 PM
re: foreclosures

The morning bell radio show here detailed there are a lot of people behind on their mortgages here. Banks are just wtg for the pricing to go up to begin the foreclosure process

basically a lot of people here are living mortgage free, they've given up on trying to make good on payments, the banks are wtg to pounce when the time is right. Not a good situation