View Full Version : monetary value for 1 length?
BetHorses!
01-23-2004, 02:35 PM
New to the board and would like to hear opinions about how much 1 length is worth in dollars. I am a value player and it took a long time but I usually do not play my top rated horse unless the price is right. I value a length at 2-1, another words if my top rated horse is even money and I make my second rated horse 2 lengths slower I would want 4-1 or more in order to bet that contender. Like to hear some opinions
thanks
sq764
01-23-2004, 08:58 PM
I can honestly say I have never heard of this method before (assigning value to lengths).. Interesting..
Dick Schmidt
01-23-2004, 11:11 PM
BH,
$3.41. Except on weekends, when it goes up to $5.03.
Dick
Who is willing to answer questions even when they make no sense.
BetHorses!
01-23-2004, 11:26 PM
Hey Dick (no pun intended)
Are you saying my question makes no sense?
Shacopate
01-24-2004, 12:15 AM
Just curious,
What is the value of a lenght to you in terms of TIME?
Fastracehorse
01-24-2004, 12:28 AM
I think your question is worth evaluating for yourself.
Personally, I don't think 1 length is an advantage. That is not to say that horses don't win by 1 length or less - many races are close.
Races are too competitve for 1 length to be an advantage. Even 5 lengths isn't much of an advantage if your horse's trip is compromised.
The strength of a point system are the quantifers on which it is based. To say that your idea makes no sense is an over-statement, however, there are better quantifiers IMO.
But all my ideas had to be dis-proven by yours truly. I expect you are the same.
Good luck.
fffastt
BetHorses,
I'm not sure I fully understand this question, but I'll try to provide a serious answer to your question. Per my studies (five years worth of data), the average losing lengths (based) on post time odds (eliminating outliers) is as follows:
Even 1.32 lengths
2-1 2.88 lengths
3-1 3.89 lengths
4-1 4.65 lengths
...
11-1 7.69 lengths
12-1 7.98 lengths
13-1 8.25 lengths
etc...
Therefore, just to make it complicated--handicapping is never so simple :), the pure monetary value of 1 length differs based on the horses odds. Specifically, between 2-1 and 3-1, the monetary value of one length is equal to one odds point; but between 12-1 and 13-1, the monetary value of one length is only equal to about 1/4 odds point.
I actually use these calculations not to calculate monetary values, but to help evaluate a horse's class--i.e. to help mitigate what I call "garbage time." Garbage time is when the race (for that horse) is long over, and the horse/jockey/stable is merely going through the motions to finish the race. Therefore, there's not much difference in class between a horse that loses by 10 lenghts, than a horse that loses by 15 lengths. But there's a huge difference between a horse than wins by one length from one that loses by four lengths. This may seem like common sense stuff, but you need to factor this in to help answer your other question--about making an odds line. In my opinion, when calculating a horse's running times you must consider "garbage time" when using these numbers to develop an odds lines--otherwise you odds line will be scewed. You must also consider standard deviation, and where the horse's previous evaluated performance falls within his/her probability curve. Specifically, a horse being rated on a paceline near the right (max) of its probabilty curve is unlikely to repeat--and is much more likely to regress (unless the horse is young, or there's some unusal circumstances, i.e. equipment change, new drug cocktail, etc.). But I too regress, so to answer your original question--the monetary value one length depends on the horses odds :). Best of luck...
Que.
kenwoodallpromos
01-24-2004, 12:48 AM
Interesting for longshots! What % of odds-on horses do you play?
Dick Schmidt
01-24-2004, 03:20 AM
BH,
Yes.
Dick
Master of the short, direct answer.
formula_2002
01-24-2004, 07:31 AM
Que, I did a similar study about 10 years ago and found the same stunning correlation to odds and winning lenthgs.
The reason for the study was as folllows;
Pat Day was receiving a lot of heat on the old Prodigy bulletin borad for finishing second with horse that the BB members felt should have won the race .
It turned out that Day finished a closer second with longer priced horses then any of the 10 leading jockies of the day.
Originally posted by Dick Schmidt
BH,
$3.41. Except on weekends, when it goes up to $5.03.
Dick
Who is willing to answer questions even when they make no sense.
....a horse ships in from Canada, do you use the current exchange rate?:confused:
sq764
01-24-2004, 09:05 AM
Bethorses, don't let Dick get to you.. He has shown signs of being that old man who's resistent to change and new ideas.
I imagine he still uses a Beta VCR, simply because it worked well the way it was..
Don't get discouraged in your idea, just wait for intelligent responses back, they will come.
Larry Hamilton
01-24-2004, 10:04 AM
To use a math evaluation, the question as stated is absurd and deserves the comments of both Dick and Tom. Though some tried to extrapolate the premise, the question as stated, lacks win percenages of something that can be converted to odds. Merely stating that 10 horses traveled some distance at 10 different speeds is like saying horse 1 travels at 40 mph and horse 2 travels at 35 mph what are the odds on the two horses?
Lets look at odds another way. What does 3:1 horse1 mean?
It means that someone is saying with some unspecified confidence that horse1 has 1 chance in 4 of winning. You cannot just pluck 1 chance out of 4 from thin air! Some measurements need doing. You have chosen speed over a specified interval. You have measured an average (?) speed for each horse. Your measurments should lead you to conclude that horse1 is 3 times more likely to win than the next horse. How do you make that leap without measuring how this kind of horse does?
As to the intelligence behind the comments: I rated both their comments as short, brutal, cogent and intelligent. Contrary to what some think on this board, the weight of what you write does not portend any particular level of thought.
sq764
01-24-2004, 10:21 AM
Ridicule is often a sign of insecurity and lack of knowledge.. I keep that in mind when I read those types of posts.
Actually, I found the idea interesting. I was not ridiculing the post or the poster. I was merely commenting on Dick's post.
Lighten up.
And Bethorses, welcome. All questions are welcome for discussion.
sq764
01-24-2004, 10:31 AM
Tom, I found no issue with your post, I was solely commenting on Dickhead's, I mean Dick's post.
Larry Hamilton
01-24-2004, 10:31 AM
geeez, defeated by a fortune cookie jingo
Larry Hamilton
01-24-2004, 10:38 AM
Thats wrong. If you are going to call the man names, at least have the courtesy of standing in his face when you do. He should have the option of responding within arms length.
sq764
01-24-2004, 11:00 AM
Interesting that you defend his idiotic comments to a genuine question (states in a post and not 'within arm's length'), but a name is a different story.
Sounds quite hypocritical to me.. Get a clue.
PaceAdvantage
01-24-2004, 01:38 PM
This would be a good time for a CHILL.
If you live in the northeast, simply step outside for a few minutes.....
Telling people to get a clue and calling someone a dickhead isn't going to do much for the thread except accelerate it to a premature ending....
PA,
Maybe you could move it to the off topic area. Actually i found the thread interesting.
back to the orginal topic started by Bethorses.
Assigning a monetary value to a length. This isn't exactly what was orginally asked, but Que talked about "garbage time" when they are in the back of the pack and the horse/connections have thrown in the towel resulting in a unusable time/fig. I have used this as a hidden form angle by decreasing the PPL (points per beaten length) as the beaten lengths increase. In the most raw use of this, simply add the beaten lengths to the Beyer figure in the DRF. This decreases the roughly 2.5 points for sprints and 2 points for routes that is used for the published figure.
Combined with other techniques this sometimes proves valuable. This isn't exactly assigning a monetary value to a length but it does help assign a value to a beaten length which can then be referenced with the odds to determine monetary value.
PaceAdvantage
01-24-2004, 02:44 PM
Originally posted by ljb
PA,
Maybe you could move it to the off topic area. Actually i found the thread interesting.
Yes, I found it a bit interesting as well, which is why I posted that mild suggestion that cooler heads should prevail....
No reason to move it to off-topic....off-topic is for subjects other than horse racing and handicapping....
sq764
01-24-2004, 07:32 PM
PA, sometimes you really baffle me.. You get involved when a name is called, yet when a newbie asks a legitimate question, you sit back and watch him get insulted by 2 moronic posters.
If that is the image you want for your site, then I misjudged the site. I thought it was a place where people could come and get some insightful thoughts on their questions; ones that were specifically related to handicapping.
Apparently, I have been wrong this whole time. Oh well, not the first time.
Dick Schmidt
01-24-2004, 08:20 PM
SQ,
Dickhead!? Well, you're a poo-poo face.
Now that kindergarten is over, shall we address your point that a new poster was abused? He asked a question and I answered it in exactly the format he requested. That the answer made little sense is a reflection of the original question. Asking how high the Empire State Building is in feet-per-second may seem like a serious question to some, but it will most likely elicit spurious answers.
He asked the monetary value of a beaten length. I answered with a dollar figure. Tongue in cheek? Yes. Insult? Maybe, if you take it that answering a question that doesn't make sense is an insult.
Sorry that your lack of a sense of humor precludes you from using this board in the future. I'm sure you'll be missed. By someone.
Dick
Who's been called worse than a Dickhead more than once.
sq764
01-24-2004, 08:30 PM
I wonder if years and years ago, when you first started to discover handicapping... If you got that kind of an answer, how would you have felt? Disappointed? Frustrated?
Or did you just figure out the whole handicapping game the first day you went out to the track?
JustMissed
01-24-2004, 08:58 PM
Originally posted by sq764
I wonder if years and years ago, when you first started to discover handicapping... If you got that kind of an answer, how would you have felt? Disappointed? Frustrated?
Or did you just figure out the whole handicapping game the first day you went out to the track?
sq, Did you read the same post as me, here it is:
"monetary value for 1 length?
New to the board and would like to hear opinions about how much 1 length is worth in dollars. I am a value player and it took a long time but I usually do not play my top rated horse unless the price is right. I value a length at 2-1, another words if my top rated horse is even money and I make my second rated horse 2 lengths slower I would want 4-1 or more in order to bet that contender. Like to hear some opinions
thanks"
The guy said he was new to the board, not a new player.
The guy said he was a "value player", indicating that he was seasoned player, not a newbe.
He said "it took a long time", also indicating he was an experienced player.
He said "I value a length at 2-1", also indicating he is experienced.
Anyway, kinda of odd you would chastise Dickhead for making fun of a newbe when in fact the guy appears to be a seasoned player and asked a dumb question. Most newbes come to this site with hat in hand and state "I'm a new player and need some help. Would you mind helping me?", and are most often helped very generously.
To me, his question was kinda like going on to a poker site and making this comment:"I've been playing poker for thirty years and think there are times when a straight can beat a flush, what do you guys think?"He would be laughed at into cyberspace.
Anyway, I always enjoy Dick's comments and hope you will quit picking on him.
JustMissed
:)
sq764
01-24-2004, 09:15 PM
Why exactly was it a dumb question to you? Just out of curiosity.
Brian Flewwelling
01-24-2004, 09:27 PM
This thread is based on an interesting point, even if it was awkwardly presented. I don't know if i can improve on the original, but let me try.
We all know horses seem to run at different rates in different races, and going into a race we project the likely 'speed' or finish position of the contenders. Given a fav likely to run the best time, but maybe ready for some regression, and another horse we like who normally runs x lengths back.
What odds difference makes the second horse an attractive bet?
ie what is the probability that the second horse has the better day and beats the fav?
So what price do we need for that many lengths? That is, what's the price of a length? (and Tom: is it the same in Pesos, or Euros:)?)
Fleww
And Dick should know better than to try to be a 'Tom' ... we know Tom is kidding when he answers like that ... and we are not so sure about Dick (noggon?). And Tom did not disappoint with his follow-up!
Mark Hopkins once described a method he used to assigning odds based on each horse's Beyer figure.
Once, in the early 60's a man stood up in room and challenged the people there to put a man on the moon and bring him back safe before the end of the decade. Sounded pretty dumb to many at the time.
Pace Cap'n
01-24-2004, 09:43 PM
What if the question had been phrased like this?
"As an experienced value player, I make my own odds line, based on, among other things, projected beaten lengths. Since the currency of the racetrack is "the odds", what would be a logical incremental odds value to assign contenders in descending order, correlated to expected beaten lengths, and expressed in a monetary unit?"
I have always heard the only stupid question is the one that isn't asked.
As far as the anwer to the question, I don't have a clue.
PaceAdvantage
01-24-2004, 10:36 PM
Originally posted by sq764
PA, sometimes you really baffle me.. You get involved when a name is called, yet when a newbie asks a legitimate question, you sit back and watch him get insulted by 2 moronic posters.
I know who you think one of the moronic posters is, but who is the other?
If that is the image you want for your site, then I misjudged the site. I thought it was a place where people could come and get some insightful thoughts on their questions; ones that were specifically related to handicapping. Apparently, I have been wrong this whole time. Oh well, not the first time.
Wow. How did we fool you for so long? You've got to be kidding me, right?
sq764
01-24-2004, 10:51 PM
Pa, so you consider "Your question is stupid" insightful?
Geez, what do you have to do to be unhlpful? Stab them in the eye while answering?
breakage
01-25-2004, 02:16 AM
Heck, wasn't Dick's original comment just funny? Why make a big deal? IT's good to laugh once in awhile.
highnote
01-25-2004, 02:26 AM
monetary value for 1 length?
New to the board and would like to hear opinions about how much 1 length is worth in dollars. ... I value a length at 2-1, another words if my top rated horse is even money and I make my second rated horse 2 lengths slower I would want 4-1 or more in order to bet that contender. Like to hear some opinions
thanks
I've heard of plenty people making an oddsline based on speed figures. Speed figures usually, if not always, incorporate beaten lengths. So let's say a handicapper makes speed figures where one point equals a length and today that handicapper projects that his/her top rated horse will run an 80 and his second rated horse will run a 79. He is saying that his top choice is 1 length better than his second choice. I can see how someone could make an oddsline from this information. By making an oddsline using this information the handicapper is assigning a value to a beaten length.
In my opinion, I think a beaten length is not worth 2-1. If you make your top choice 2-1, then I think you have to give the horse that is inferior by one length a better chance of winning than 4-1. Of course, it depends on the size of the field and the number of contenders, etc. If you only have two contenders then maybe 2-1 is the correct value of a beaten length. If you have 5 contenders with speed figures of say 80, 79, 78, 77 and 76 then with your system you'd value them at 2-1, 4-1, 6-1, 8-1 and 10-1. I'd probably make the line 2-1, 2-1, 5/2, 3-1, 3-1.
Of course, it depends on how strongly you feel your figures predict the outcome. If you think it's a dead cert they'll run to their figures then the line should be 1/5, 20-1, 20-1, etc.
So I guess it comes down to a matter of degrees. Your confidence that your figures will predict the outcome will determine the value of the beaten length.
Not sure if this answers your question, but I thought I'd take a shot.
Regards,
John Swetye
GameTheory
01-25-2004, 02:44 AM
Bottom line is you need a large sample of past races rated this way so you can see for yourself how just how a margin of advantage in beaten lengths (or speed figures) corresponds to increased win%. It is completely dependent on the specific rating method used, and no (very good) answer can be given in the general sense...
highnote
01-25-2004, 02:51 AM
GT,
In a general sense, I thought my answer was pretty good.
js
GameTheory
01-25-2004, 03:01 AM
As in general theory, sure, but I meant you can't give a general rule of thumb involving specific odds & percentages without a sample of examples to calculate such things from.
But I suspect you knew that...:)
highnote
01-25-2004, 03:07 AM
Hell, I didn't think about much. I was just busting your balls.
GameTheory
01-25-2004, 03:28 AM
I suspect I knew that....
BetHorses!
01-25-2004, 01:28 PM
Wow -- away for a day and just had a lot catching up to do
First of all, I should have phrased the question better maybe like Pace Capin or Brian Flawwelling did in their responses so I am sorry for that, my writing skills are not the best cause growing up I was at the track instead of class
Lets see if I can respond to all
Just missed-- Yes new to board but not a new player, I was a losing player for years (20) and I just turned 36 at least I can admit it now but research and most importantly money management, patience and a rebate has helped me become a winning player as of last year
Tom- Thank you for the warm welcome-your posts throughout this site are great and I look forward to picking your brain
P.S. exchange rate was very funny!
PA- Thank you for not moving the thread. This site is great and I am sorry for not knowing about it before
Sq764- Thanks for your support
Larry Hamilton- you made some valid math points about odds
Jed- very interesting post-thank you
Gametheory- very true
Swetye john- thanks for your insight
And Dick- you are entitled to your opinion about my question, some find it an interesting subject and others find it silly or stupid makes no sense but thats what makes horse racing!!! and we all love it
JustMissed
01-25-2004, 01:43 PM
Originally posted by BetHorses!
New to the board and would like to hear opinions about how much 1 length is worth in dollars. I am a value player and it took a long time but I usually do not play my top rated horse unless the price is right. I value a length at 2-1, another words if my top rated horse is even money and I make my second rated horse 2 lengths slower I would want 4-1 or more in order to bet that contender. Like to hear some opinions
thanks
You guys crack me up. Everyone at the track knows that odds=dollar value and the two terms are used interchangeable.
When a players says "I caught a $10 horse in the 5th", he could just as easily say "I caught a 4-1 horse in the 5th", and everyone, even the popcorn lady, would know what he was talking about.
The joke is that the guy's question was "about how much 1 length is worth in dollars". Then he says "I value a lenth at 2-1", which is the same thing as saying "I value a length at $6".
That's the joke, he answered his own question and then wanted our opinion.
JustMissed
:)
PaceAdvantage
01-25-2004, 01:55 PM
Actually, creating an odds line based on beaten lengths is not a new subject. It was covered extensively in the book MORE BASIC BETTING by James Jasper. It was written when the personal computer was just starting to appear in people's homes.
I read it as a kid (well, late teens...LOL), and at the time, it was THE MOST exciting book I had ever read on racing and/or handicapping, and I credit that obscure book with getting me started on this long and winding road!
JustMissed
01-25-2004, 02:52 PM
Never read the book or heard of the guy but my guess is the "beaten lengths" were of most recent race or past races, not "projected beaten lengths" of today's race-two completely different concepts.
JustMissed
:)
lousycapperII
01-25-2004, 07:18 PM
Originally posted by BetHorses!
New to the board and would like to hear opinions about how much 1 length is worth in dollars. I am a value player and it took a long time but I usually do not play my top rated horse unless the price is right. I value a length at 2-1, another words if my top rated horse is even money and I make my second rated horse 2 lengths slower I would want 4-1 or more in order to bet that contender. Like to hear some opinions
thanks
I do not have a specific answer for you. However, you are probably the only one on this forum that has the best chance for a solution to the problem; id est, what do your results show using the values you have set? If you are profitable then you have answered your own question. Let us know how it plays out.
-LCII
PaceAdvantage
01-25-2004, 07:59 PM
Just Missed....it was indeed based on projected beaten lengths for today's race.
JustMissed
01-25-2004, 09:15 PM
Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
Just Missed....it was indeed based on projected beaten lengths for today's race.
JustMissed
;)
Shacopate
01-26-2004, 03:31 AM
I am still curious,
What is the value to you of a beaten lenght in terms of TIME?
Larry Hamilton
01-26-2004, 10:41 AM
I am going to try this one more time because this has swerved into an important subject. Many of the answers above demonstrate a misunderstanding of statistics and probability.
The probability of this horse winning based on SOMETHING is 2:1. What does that mean? It means the horse has 1 chance in 3 of winning. How do you know that? You have measured SOMETHING, and found that over a large sample group that when SOMETHING occurs, you win 1 time in 3. If you dont do the measuring and transfer that measurement to an odds line you are merely making a SWAG.
The question as stated in the first post of this thread does not include the measuring (statistics), therefore any odds line (probability) posed from this set of facts is a SWAG.
No one got around to answering the making of an odds line BECAUSE there is not enough input to do so! It is a simple process you can even do in Excel in a couple of columns. First column: enter a range of win rates, find their sum...oops, we dont have any--see what I mean?
Larry,
I answered his odds line question. Though I don't use his specific numbers, I use my own instead, and it works for me. I don't have to prove it is mathematically sound to use it, all I have to do is cash tickets worth more than those I lose on.
I understand about the SWAG, I'm just saying that the proof is in the pudding. Proving a line is accurate is impossible because all the factors are never, and will never, be accounted for with a database. Proving lines you make produce a profit is easy. Each individual line may be a swag, but all of them together might be pretty good.
You can't prove everything...even a mathematical field like Geometry is based on a bunch of postulates (assumptions) that have never been proven.
I guess I'm saying the same thing over and over again, but precision is just not necessary when making an odds line, you just have to be in the ballpark some of the time.
Originally posted by Shacopate
I am still curious,
What is the value to you of a beaten lenght in terms of TIME?
I can't answer for bethorse, but you can't calculate the TIME of a beaten length without knowing the time of the race and the distance of the race. You can be more precise knowing the time and distance of all the fractions.
Shacopate
01-26-2004, 01:02 PM
C'mon CJ,
Yeah, it sure as hell isn't a fifth of a second, unless it is.
Now, I have to ask him a DIFFERENT question.
Ok Bethorses!,
What do they call a quarter-pounder with cheese in France?
I don't know about that, but I always thought the Postulates were religious followers-there were 12, right? :rolleyes:
highnote
01-26-2004, 04:46 PM
Originally posted by Larry Hamilton
The probability of this horse winning based on SOMETHING is 2:1. What does that mean? It means the horse has 1 chance in 3 of winning. How do you know that? You have measured SOMETHING, and found that over a large sample group that when SOMETHING occurs, you win 1 time in 3.
Larry,
I make oddslines all the time without having measured. When I'm at the track I don't have any personal statistics in some spreadsheet or database to turn to. I have to use art, intuition, experience, knowledge and gut feeling. My past experiences are stored in my head -- hopefully I have a good memory. Now, I agree my oddsline may not be as good as one that is based on a 10,000 race sample dataset that is varified with out-of-sample testing. However, that doesn't mean I can't make an accurate oddsline.
For example, let's say there are two races I want to make an oddsline for. I project a speed figure I think each horse will run based on their past figures and each point is approx equal to 1 length.
Race one has 3 contenders A, B and C with figures of 80, 79 and 78. I'm saying that horse A is one length better than B and B is one length better than A.
Race two has 3 contenders with figures of 80, 77 and 75.
In race one I make the line 2-1, 3-1 and 4-1. and in race two I make the line 1-1, 3-1 and 4-1.
In race two I think horse A is 3 lengths better than horse B. Since I expect him to win by more lengths than horse A in race one I make his line lower than horse A in race one.
I don't need a large sample of past oddslines to know that a horse with a projected 3 length advantage should have lower odds than a horse with a projected 1 length advantage.
Now, I wouldn't expect everyone to come up with the same line as me, but that doesn't mean a fairly accurate line can't be made based on limited data.
Actually, the way I'd probably do this whole exercise if I was betting real money is by assigning probabilities to each of the contenders and then converting to an oddsline.
Just my opinion.
Regards,
John
Larry Hamilton
01-26-2004, 05:18 PM
I am stunned into silence
highnote
01-26-2004, 06:26 PM
Thought you'd like that one.
BetHorses!
01-26-2004, 07:40 PM
Originally posted by Shacopate
C'mon CJ,
Yeah, it sure as hell isn't a fifth of a second, unless it is.
Now, I have to ask him a DIFFERENT question.
Ok Bethorses!,
What do they call a quarter-pounder with cheese in France?
Lt. Danny Roman
the answer you are looking for is
Royale with cheese
The nitty-gritty...
Horse A has a 60% chance of running a 80 or better.
Horse B has a 40% chance of running a 79 or better.
Horse C has a 80% chance of running a 78 or better.
What would be the line now?
BetHorses!
01-26-2004, 09:26 PM
Larry that was a different thread and yes CJ is the only person to give me an answer that I can actually use as a guide (Thanks again CJ) and its been working very good so far.
The question here is what price can you put on a projected beaten length, I make it 2-1 is that right I don't know thats why I asked for other opinions. I would prefer to get at least 6-1 on a horse who I think is 3 lengths slower then my top pick who is going to the post at even money
Question to the guys who don't make an oddsline
If you rank your top 4 horses in each race.. 1st being your top pick of course and 2nd your next choice etc., do you think your top pick will win much more than your 4th pick? What about your 2nd pick over the 3rd pick?? What percentage of races will you not have a winner out of your top 4 contenders
highnote
01-26-2004, 10:09 PM
Originally posted by Jed
The nitty-gritty...
Horse A has a 60% chance of running a 80 or better.
Horse B has a 40% chance of running a 79 or better.
Horse C has a 80% chance of running a 78 or better.
What would be the line now?
I'm sure a Monte-Carlo simulation or something similar could be done to figure this out statistically. But I can't do Monte-Carlo in my head, so I'll attempt to answer it as if I were at the track about to bet.
To start, I'd look at the opposite side of the coin, too.
Horse A 60% >= 80, 40% < 80
Horse B 40% >= 79, 60% < 79
Horse C 80% >= 78, 20% < 78
Looking at A and B first, it looks like Horse A beats B most of the time. Horse C is going to jump up and beat B frequently and also will beat A quite often, though not as often as he will beat B.
So I still think A is the horse to beat at say 5/2. I'd make B 7/2 and I'd make C 3-1.
Here's my logic. C runs better than 78 a whopping 80% of the time and C runs worse than 79 60% of the time. It seems like C is going to beat B more times than B will beat C.
The way you set this up makes this a very hard to figure. What if everytime B races faster than 79 he earns a 90 or better and every time he races slower than 79 he runs a 60?
It would be easier if you asked what is the probability A, B and C run an 80 or better. The hard part about your scenario is that A could run a sub 80 and C a better than 78 and it would end in a dead-heat. Or A could run his 80 and C a 79 and C would still lose.
In any case, I've tried to answer it the way you posed it.
This is a good brain teaser.
Maybe someone else can shed some light on the problem?
Regards,
John
PS
I would be interested in writing a program to simulate this. I'd have to set some parameters like no horse can run more than 10 points higher or lower than their figure in the example. Then the computer would generate a random figure for each of the horses. The figure generated would be designed to occur as often as in the example.
I think I remember that Colts Neck handicapping data used a similar methodology to this type of a simulation.
superfecta
01-26-2004, 11:35 PM
I not only use how much a length difference is in relation to a horses odds for the win,I also use an odds multiplier according to how many lines i go back in a horses form.but I don't only use it for the win horse,I use it for the spots underneath.With exotics you don't have to be exact,you just have to be "in the ballpark"
Cratos
01-28-2004, 10:39 AM
Hi Larry,
When you spoke of probability, were you speaking of "conditional" or were you speaking of "random" probability?
Larry Hamilton
01-28-2004, 11:17 AM
Kinda doesnt matter, it seems that what I thought was obvious is not even accepted by some here.
highnote
01-28-2004, 11:26 AM
Originally posted by Larry Hamilton
Kinda doesnt matter, it seems that what I thought was obvious is not even accepted by some here.
Larry,
I agree with you, but I also think there is more than one way to skin a cat.
Regards,
John
Larry,
I am in no way saying your method is inaccurate. I'm sure it works very good for you. I'm just saying it isn't the only way to make an odds line.
I'm sure you way is more mathematically correct than mine, but it really doesn't matter if the end result is profit.
Larry Hamilton
01-28-2004, 09:39 PM
I talk too damned much and stir up stuff needlessly.
highnote
01-29-2004, 01:34 AM
That's why I post on this board. I like to be part of a debate. Sometimes debates can lead to breakthroughs. I'm sure the original Sartin group must have debated over whether or not certain parts of their "methodology" were more useful than others.
Gekish
01-29-2004, 04:18 AM
Years ago I found that a horse with a 8 last race Beyer point advantage won 50% of the races (with a negative ROI). At 6 fur race this is a 3.2 lenghts. One would assign odd of 1-1 to this horse. If you have a database with Beyer (Bris etc) numbers you can figure out what is the winnig % with different point advantage. Going down the line you can assign the other 50% probability among the other horses.
Larry Hamilton
01-29-2004, 07:59 AM
I aint touchin' that, cept to say one word "normalization"
Not much to add here except that asking about how to convert lengths to odds and vice versa is an intelligent question and the answer to it can be enormously useful. Even the self-proclaimed experts can sometimes be totally wrong in jumping to the conclusion that something is a silly idea.
BetHorses!
01-31-2004, 10:08 AM
Originally posted by Rick
Not much to add here except that asking about how to convert lengths to odds and vice versa is an intelligent question and the answer to it can be enormously useful. Even the self-proclaimed experts can sometimes be totally wrong in jumping to the conclusion that something is a silly idea.
Thank you Rick. I think it was a good discussion
Fastracehorse
02-14-2004, 02:38 PM
That is kind of my thing - at least converting beaten lengths to a speed fig - and there is aaaaaaaa realtionship between beaten lengths and odds.
And what I have seen from doing, I don't know how many thousands of these conversions by hand, - say I play five tracks per day - and there are 80 horses per card.............( it's a quick mental summer-sault by now ). I would have liked to have said mental gymnastics but that would have been an over-statement about the complexity of the calculation :)
Anyways, I like a 10 length advantage - because, with all the stuff that happens in a horse race, I believe you need a big adavantage with some factor - eg., a speed fig.
My speed fig works really, really well...............sometimes...................... . - it has always found me good over-lays.
It's weakness is what I find interesting and, I am involved in a personal study to improve my win % and my ability to find over-lays.
I call my study: Looking for the 'well meant' horse.
fffastt
Cratos
02-14-2004, 03:57 PM
Putting a dollar value on a length is very easy, but it will vary from racetrack to racetrack. Additionally this value could be refined further if it was derived by class of race (e.g. claiming, allowance, etc.)
However it should be understood that individual risk-curves (odds) tend to be different for each bettor, therefore the actual value of a length in terms of odds is whatever value the individual bettor assigns to a length based on his risk-curve. A risk-preferred bettor might assign greater odds than a risk-against bettor.
Therefore making this calculation from a global perspective, the first step would be to calculate the average winning odds of all winning horses at the racetrack that you are considering. Next calculate the average winning margin or length(s) of the same set of winning horses.
The results of these calculations will give the following ratio: winning odds/winning lengths.
This calculation is not a an exact science, but it will give a real reflection of what dollar value in terms of odds the general betting public put on a length. Also calculating non-winners would be illogical because you are looking for winning value.
Keep in mind that this is a derived value and is determined in the post sense whereas real odds come from the bettor’s decision that is made along the bettor’s risk-curve before the race is run and the true value of a length is whatever value an individual bettor put on a length.
Aussieplayer
02-15-2004, 10:13 PM
Don Scott (our version of Beyer, 'cept he won a lot more than 50 grand at the track), did the following:
he had a rating method where the value of each rating increment was 1/3rd length. The 1/3rd length bit doesn't matter, it's just so you can follow.
Anyway, this was the table of odds:
1
.9
.8
.67
.57
.5
.4
.3
.25
.2
.17
.13
.1
.09
0.87
.......I may have got one or two numbers wrong, but that's not the point.
So, your top rater always gets the value of "1"
Let's say you have a horse rated 1 length away. That's 3 increments on his scale. So it gets assigned "0.67"
Do that for all your horses.
You now have some total. Say, 3.23
You can divide each individual horse's figure into that total, and you've got % chance of winning. This then becomes odds.
It's nice and simple, but it removes any need of subjectivity as long as you use a numbers approach. It goes one further than Fierro, as it doesn't require you to first decide the value of your first choice.
2 things:
(a) I know he used a slightly modified table for use in the exotics, giving more weight to the runner's-up chances.
(b) The actual table. You could start with this and see how you go. I think someone like Rick (how are you my old mate?) might suggest how to go about deciding the values in the first place. This is something that Scott never really mentioned.
I imagine it was something as simple as, "what is the win% of horses rated 2 lengths begind" etc etc.
See how you go.
This board seems to have, um, changed quite a bit in my absence. Or maybe it's just me.
Schwartz still about?
Cheers
AP
AP,
For what it's worth, a long time ago I did some regressions using data from Jasper in a book called "More Basic Betting" and came up with the following approximations.
Lengths = 3.684 * Ln(0.825 * Odds + 0.175)
Odds = 1.212 * Exp(Lengths / 3.684) - 0.212
These are just approximations that had a pretty good fit with his table. I experimented with this for a while but have never really used it for anything much. It turned out that it was better, for my methods anyway, to focus on getting a top rated horse that is an overlay rather than getting the most accurate estimate of odds for all horses in the race. If somebody wants to do the research, you can get a pretty good linear relationship using Log(Odds+1) to predict lengths and vice versa.
I still use Jasper's table sometimes to decide whether a losing horse was an overlay according to it's odds. If it finished better than the predicted lengths, I feel better about losing the race.
The above expressions apply to toteboard odds, so if you wanted to use them to calculate true odds (without the takeout), you'd have to make some adjustments.
But I'm not recommending such an approach. Getting really accurate odds is not the best way to find overlays. A rating method can be constructed that gets about the same win % as favorites but where the top rated horse is an overlay about half of the time. The trick is combining unpopular but significant factors. I'm having very good success using this approach without calculating odds for any of the horses. I originally assumed that my statistical background would give me a big edge, but it hasn't turned out that way. Trying hundreds of different alternatives turned out to be the most effective approach. Horse racing data doesn't conform very well to the assumptions of most statistical methods so experience and creativity are more helpful than mathematical sophistication.
JustMissed
02-16-2004, 04:45 PM
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Rick
[B]AP,
But I'm not recommending such an approach. Getting really accurate odds is not the best way to find overlays. QUOTE]
How do you know it's overlaid if you don't calculate fair/value odds?
I thought the definition of an overlay is "An overlay is an underbet horse". How the heck are you going to know if it's underbet if you don't know what it should be bet at?
I DON'T GET IT.
JustMissed
;)
Aussieplayer
02-17-2004, 12:08 AM
Justmissed,
What about a group of horses that are profitable? As Rick mentioned for his own approach: top raters that aren't fav. etc.
If they're profitable, are you not betting overlays without knowing "fair odds."
Interestingly, I am finding this to be true myself.
Cheers
AP
JustMissed,
What you do is eliminate those that are likely to be overbet because they rank high in some obvious factor. For example, top last race speed, morning line favorite, highest average earnings. People just love to bet down horses that look good in a lot of different ways. A horse that ranks highest in one good factor is almost as likely to win as one that ranks highest in three or four factors. The actual post time odds seems to be partly "dumb money" related to obvious factors and partly "smart money" that is related to non-obvious factors. You want to decide if you have an overlay by comparing with the "dumb money". The "smart money" will take care of itself because it just causes you to have a higher or lower win % but doesn't change the value of the overlay. Eventually, I'd like to develop a more scientific way of computing a "dumb money" odds line but haven't done much yet. When I get around to it I'll probably look at something like class of last race, odds last race, and lengths behind last race. Maybe speed last race too. Odds last race is important because it's a measure of all of the races that have come before but it has to be adjusted for class level to compare it to today's race. For now, I'm doing fine just using simple elimination rules for the top choice. It's good enough just to compare the rank of your choice with some other ranking like toteboard odds (if you can get them late enough), or morning line odds, or speed last race. If necessary, you can demand that it be two (or more) ranks better. Trying to compute odds down to the 10th decimal place is just not necessary.
Fastracehorse
02-18-2004, 03:46 PM
<A horse that ranks highest in one good factor is almost as likely to win as one that ranks highest in three or four factors.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
That's what I find too in my 'well-meant' study.
fffastt
Fastracehorse
02-18-2004, 03:49 PM
<Trying to compute odds down to the 10th decimal place is just not necessary.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
LOL - I'm very fond of whole #'s.
fffastt
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