CRUSH or CRASH : 10/7 Live Play

[Itamaraca]

WO R1-2

R1:

no true speed horse in here; should be interesting
:4:, Erma Lee: love her race two back; another chance today

:1:, Cooking School: going for 3rd in row

:7:, Flower Exchange: chalk and should get a piece


R2:

:5:, Dynamite Night: crushed a field breaking her maiden last time

:7:, Woolhara: significant drop for the INEPT Carroll; chalk and who knows?

[Itamaraca]

CRASH

4th and 5th; though the 3rd choice won it, thanks to yet another premature move by Contreras

[Itamaraca]

WO R2 - revisit -- chance for big balloons here

:4:, Canadian Lady: sneaky good races; strong shot @ price

:6:, Maelle: probably cuts the pace today; dropping and long odds.

:7:, Woollahra:

:5:, Dynamite Night:

[Itamaraca]

Couldn't get the 18:1 :6: home. But I used her under the :7: and had the exacta. No cooperation/contribution from the others.

Woodbine T-bred - Race 2
# Win Place Show
7 $3.80 $3.00 $2.70
6 . $12.10 $6.90
1 . . $4.00

$1.00 Exacta 7/6 $22.70

[Itamaraca]

WO R3:

:7:, Ms Silver Oak: has some nice races on turf; sprinting over the grass should suit her more than routing. Today's the day; these aren't that good

use with

:1:/:1a:, :5:, :8:

[Solid_Gold]

GL and nice day yesterday

[Itamaraca]

crash in the 3rd: ran 5,6,8

7 was NO where; though I never got to see the race as the feed was down

[Itamaraca]

WO R4: big balloon possibilities

:9:, Ruling Silence: chased and made a nice move before backing up going 9F last time. It was his 1st time routing so he should be nice and fit. The problem is that Ramsammy is up. So, it's doubtful this one gets an even trip. Bet to win but only if GT 25:1

:1:, R Paynes Repeat: has some races that should win this one. The problem is that both the trainer and jock SUCK. If Griffith lets this one run easily inside and asks him in the stretch, he wins. If he takes him off the inside and has him widest of all and bids too soon, he gets nada. Very small possibility that he does the former. Need 20:1 for a win bet.

:6:, Bon Jovi's Sky: long time maiden. His last was ok.

[Robert Fischer]

2yo mile turf @ kee coming up


$2W $5plc $15shw on :2:

:2::3::12: exbx

:2::3::9::10::12: ex bx
throwing the 9 in there just because nice animal w/ troubled lines, the other 4 look most serious, :12:is a nice animal.

[Itamaraca]

Kee R4:

:2:, Doctor Vickie Lynn

win and use in exotics with :11:, :12:, :6:

[PhantomOnTour]

:3: Wickapecko may not need much to get to the front under Castro and hopefully take these all the way, currently 5-1.
Her daddy loved the off track.
She's not the best gate horse though...problems in both her starts and gets the rail today. The break is everything imo and Castro needs to have her ready.
Won't take less than 5-1 with her gate history and a bad break from the one hole last time.

[Robert Fischer]

Kee R4:

:2:, Doctor Vickie Lynn

win and use in exotics with :11:, :12:, :6:

go 2

[Itamaraca]

damn; why does Leblon come off the rail? Can't win with that trip. When sprinters stretch out and win on the turf, I ALWAYS lose.

[Robert Fischer]

CRASH :)

2yo mile turf @ kee coming up


$2W $5plc $15shw on :2:

:2::3::12: exbx

:2::3::9::10::12: ex bx
throwing the 9 in there just because nice animal w/ troubled lines, the other 4 look most serious, :12:is a nice animal.

[Itamaraca]

Fischer: you can't win with 5 horse exacta boxes; even boxing 3 horses on a regular basis is a recipe for failure. The idea is score when you hit, not nickle and dime them.

***************************

WO R5:

:2:, Good to be Lucky: cutting back from 8.5F, where the moron, Contreras, had him going 23+ opening quarter. Held real well and cutback to 7F is supposed produce a win. We know the trainer is useless but Husbands replaces Contreras. Would be surprised if this one lost.

:10:, Luck be the lady: held well in race that fell apart. gets blinkers on today. Maybe 7F is too long but we'll see.

:7:, Jean's a lady: all sorts of trouble per the commentators; use her defensively.

bunch of 1sters in here. not spreading too much

[Robert Fischer]

your :2: should get a nice inside pocket trip today @ Woodbine. Last time she was in the middle of the track 1st turn and had to fight for the lead. She's a little on the small side... but there doesn't appear to be a ton of competition.

7 at least runs but doesn't change leads. 6 changes leads but isn't that talented.

[ArlJim78]

at least Fischer post his plays in advance and doesn't blame the jock for every loss.:rolleyes:

[Itamaraca]

perfect example of why you just can't trust inept trainers. This horse all but trained herself with the speed routing and then today's cutback. She sits a perfect inside trip then comes up completely empty in the lane. how can this horse not have more punch?

crash

7 won it.

now, I'm lazy as shit and in a hole. see if i can kick it up

[Itamaraca]

at least Fischer post his plays in advance and doesn't blame the jock for every loss.:rolleyes:

go back to you hole, Jim. Last I looked, you were significantly DOWN in your selections and gave up. :lol:

I particularly enjoy when those who can't WIN by watching races, and thus use all sorts of other 'tools', feel the need to criticize those who can, when it comes to trips.

[Robert Fischer]

at least Fischer post his plays in advance and doesn't blame the jock for every loss.:rolleyes:

i have no problem with constructive criticism, and it doesn't have to be sugar-coated.

To be honest I don't play everything I post, and I don't post everything I play. Have played 2 exactas so far today(I.R.L.) and each was a 3number box, hit one of them and up $4 for today's exactas.

[PhantomOnTour]

What's your opinion of this inquiry in the 5th at Kee?

I say Hernandez rode the winner a bit aggressively, but i would leave the finish as is.
He did a nice job of going right handed, letting his mount drift in a bit to intimidate the :3: ...the only issue is how he himself leaned left in the saddle. All of this caused the :3: to switch back to the wrong lead.
Tough call, but no DQ imo.

[Itamaraca]

WO R6:

:1:, Rockinmebaby: chart play. Maybe too cheap but Stein works out an inside trip.



KEE R6:

:1:, Channel Isle: bid at key point; should work out inside trip; possible speed

:11:, Taken by Storm: McPeek is sneaky with these types. I suspect she can POLY.

[rubicon55]

WO 6
:8: & :4: , :8: if the early speed holds. De Silva riding good this weekend. :4: Husbands will be a threat.

[Robert Fischer]

Paul Pompa has a NYstatebred with Chad Brown in the 7th @ Bel that is a Lawyer Ron x Holy Bull mare...

FTS

[Robert Fischer]

What's your opinion of this inquiry in the 5th at Kee?

I say Hernandez rode the winner a bit aggressively, but i would leave the finish as is.
He did a nice job of going right handed, letting his mount drift in a bit to intimidate the :3: ...the only issue is how he himself leaned left in the saddle. All of this caused the :3: to switch back to the wrong lead.
Tough call, but no DQ imo.

i missed that race, but will check the replay tonight

[Itamaraca]

Incredible. They take this horse down and don't show us what the stewards are looking at until AFTER it's done. There goes my double.

[Itamaraca]

WO r7:

:10:, Comtesse Crimson: best races of the bunch. 7F is her max in terms of distance, however, and she needs a heady ride.

:12:, Cafe Au Lait: anyone else but Day-Phillips training this one and she'd be a lock. She can handle the distance; no problem. Just depends on whether DF has her fit or not.

:11:, Hobnobsnob: not much behind the :10:. Will be tough


:4:, Honey COme HOme: real shot at long odds. win if GT 25:1

[Robert Fischer]

Maggie was all over this as well. The horse looked "off". She described it as veins showing(usually pumped up), but lethargic.

couldn't see the veins but the horse wasn't right, on top of that was small.

The contessa horse who was vanned off last time won.
couldn't play that race

Prohibition Bel pompa/c.brown

[Itamaraca]

nada @ WO; 10 won but the others didn't run.


****************

KEE R 7

6 with 2,9

[PhantomOnTour]

Like the :6: :8: :11: .
Best value is the :11: and i will key mostly on him.

EX:
6-8 w 6-8-11
EX:
11 w 2-6-8-14
WIN:
11

Doubt seriously that Rosie vies for the lead with this :11: ...hopefully she can work a trip. Won debut wire to wire while going evenly the whole way. Nice works since including one at Kee...looks like he's still sharp

[PhantomOnTour]

Like the :6: :8: :11: .
Best value is the :11: and i will key mostly on him.

EX:
6-8 w 6-8-11
EX:
11 w 2-6-8-14
WIN:
11

Doubt seriously that Rosie vies for the lead with this :11: ...hopefully she can work a trip. Won debut wire to wire while going evenly the whole way. Nice works since including one at Kee...looks like he's still sharp
Nothin doin there...Demolition Derby in the lane...the 3 will come down for sure.

[Itamaraca]

Ahhhhhhhhhhh

I get DQed out of a $20+ double. And here, where the 3 is definitely coming down, the 8 passes the 9 for 3rd late. I get nada. :bang:


This :6: is okay. Some real nice off the pace runs.

[Robert Fischer]

15K to win EARLY on the :4: @ Bel

now with 6minutes 17,684on :4: ........5,125 on:5:

WTF

so the public bet 2.5K more on the 5 since the pools opened?

or did someone take 1K out every couple minutes on :4: ?

[Robert Fischer]

^ Hangs on gamely to win by half a length over 2 rivals breathing down his neck.


so you had 15K WIN before the first flash and then some genius destroyed the decent PLACE payoff by throwing $$5k+ (10K came in final flash after off) to PLACE

pretty lively betting on that one, at least i get 2.10 place :bang:

EDIT still pays 2.40 w/ the :5: photo'd out for 2nd.

[PhantomOnTour]

EX:5-6-10-11 w 7
WIN: 7

Trying to get an aging Aruna out of the exacta.
Value is there on the :7:

[Itamaraca]

KEE R8-9

R8

:10:, :3:,:5:, :11:

R9

:5:,:12:,:3:,:4:

[Robert Fischer]

prado-off :10:

edit - add :13:

[PhantomOnTour]

EX:5-6-10-11 w 7
WIN: 7

Trying to get an aging Aruna out of the exacta.
Value is there on the :7:
Well damn...finshed 5-11-7 :ThmbDown:
Was right to toss Aruna but i should have bet a tri or done something different...all over it but no cash

[Itamaraca]

I'm alive in doubles but I needed the 10 to get 3rd at least to make any money in the 8th. 5 got the perfect trip.

[Robert Fischer]

tough race @ Bel

Crespano lacks tactical speed which could hurt, but Rosario up more aggressive.

EZ passer is game speed , has to break, tough race here though
**************
EZ was outclassed here, but Maragh and teamEnglehart get points here as this one finally broke properly from the gate.

[Itamaraca]

WO R9:

:5:, Mr. Online

:8:, Red Strike

:7:, Jomelo

:6:, Buongiorno Johnny

but use the entry under in tris as well

[Robert Fischer]

kee
win on :9:

[Itamaraca]

the winner of the last at KEE has a very impressive last race chart. I noted it and chose to ignore it. :bang:

Just another of my many screwups today.

[Robert Fischer]

the winner of the last at KEE has a very impressive last race chart. I noted it and chose to ignore it. :bang:

tough to take victor lebron and 8% trainer on a longshot


6th race Haw 8.5f Turf 8mtp - check the chart on the :6: Sing it Out if you feel like it 5-1

[Itamaraca]

tough to take victor lebron and 8% trainer on a longshot


6th race Haw 8.5f Turf 8mtp - check the chart on the :6: Sing it Out if you feel like it 5-1

this was a miss on my part. I don't have charts for HAW.

****************************

WO R10

:7:, Cairdeas: best route races of the bunch. Appears better than these

:10:, Christie Pitts: lightly raced and very nice 1st time route on AW last time.

:3:, When Flashing: some decent route races

:11:, Shannon: 1st time out this year; some decent past route form.

[Robert Fischer]

gonna pass on 6 w/ having stopped twice in a row but she has a shot

[edgar]

the winner of the last at KEE has a very impressive last race chart. I noted it and chose to ignore it. :bang:

Just another of my many screwups today.

Had it for Show too bad I lacked the confidence to go WP too. Doubled my $ at Kee glad I played.

[Itamaraca]

WO R10

:7:, Cairdeas: best route races of the bunch. Appears better than these

:10:, Christie Pitts: lightly raced and very nice 1st time route on AW last time.

:3:, When Flashing: some decent route races

:11:, Shannon: 1st time out this year; some decent past route form.

When Flashing is the 4 not the 3.

Got a little bit back here.

Strong win bet on the 7 and the exacta.

Woodbine T-bred - Race 10
# Win Place Show
7 $11.60 $5.10 $3.60
4 . $3.50 $2.80
3 . . $14.90

$1.00 Exacta 7/4 $17.25


Nice example of how to repeatedly screw up by me today. :bang:
More to come, I'm sure.