Sports betting as an investment.

[thaskalos]

I have spent a lot of time over the last two years trying to develop a system for betting on pro football and pro basketball games...and I feel I have come up with something that I feel comfortable enough to wager real money on.

The systems are entirely stat-based...and I will use them to create an odds line, which I will then compare to the Las Vegas line. If my line differs from the LV line by at least 4 points, then I will wager one unit on the play. If my line differs by 7 points or more from the LV line, then the bet is a better play, and deserves a bet of 1.5 units.

I set down the rules of these two systems BEFORE I conducted any tests on them...and then I ran the entire football and basketball seasons of the last two years through them. The first year, I showed a profit of 72 units after the vig...and the second year, I showed a profit of 65.5 units -- which allowed me to more than double my bankroll every year.

I need the first 4 weeks of the football season and first 15 games of the basketball season in order to collect the stats that I require...and then the betting begins.

For this football season, I will begin with a bankroll of $5,000...and will wager $100 on my regular plays, and $150 on my prime bets.

Here is my line for the upcoming games (I will include last thursday's game...which was not a play under the rules).

Ariz. -1 ...St.L.
Atl. -6.5 . Was.
Pit. -E .... Phi.
G.B. -3 ...Ind.
NYG -9 ...Cle.
Min. -7 ...Ten.
Cin. -1 ... Mia.
Bal. -2 ....K.C.
Sea.-1.5 .Car.
Chi. -12 ..Jax.
Den. -1 .. N.E.
S.F. -4.5 .Buf.
S.D. -2 ...N.O.
Hou. -16 . Jets

Compared to the current LV line...these are my plays for this week:

Ind. +7 ....G.B....($100)
K.C +6.5 ..Bal.....($100)
Sea. +2.5 .Car....($100)
Chi. -5.5 ...Jax.....($100)
Den. +6.5 .N.E....($150)
Buf. +10 ...S.F.....($100)
S.D. +3.5 ..N.O....($100)
Hou. -9 .... Jets....($150)

Thanks for your time...:)

[Stillriledup]

If you have Houston favored by 16, i'm assuming that your system gives a lot of weight to the final score of last weeks Jets-SF game.

There arent too many 'first place teams' who are getting 16 at home on a national TV game.

I dont bet sports unless i'm actually in Vegas, than ill dabble with a few small 'action' bets, but when i do bet sports, i usually go on 'feel' and dont use stats at all.

I think the best way to approach sports betting is to try and find prime opportunities to bet ON teams that the general population perceives to be 'bad' and bet against teams that the general population perceives to be good.

Quite often after 4 weeks in the NFL, there are a bunch of teams who are 3-1 or 4-0 and a bunch of teams who are 1-3 and 0-4....your job (or, my job) is to determine which teams arent 'what their record says they are'. Sometimes a team might be 1-3 but have been strong and are very unlucky to be in that position and vice versa.

That's what i'm looking for in week 5 in the NFL.

[thaskalos]

If you have Houston favored by 16, i'm assuming that your system gives a lot of weight to the final score of last weeks Jets-SF game.

There arent too many 'first place teams' who are getting 16 at home on a national TV game.

I dont bet sports unless i'm actually in Vegas, than ill dabble with a few small 'action' bets, but when i do bet sports, i usually go on 'feel' and dont use stats at all.

I think the best way to approach sports betting is to try and find prime opportunities to bet ON teams that the general population perceives to be 'bad' and bet against teams that the general population perceives to be good.

Quite often after 4 weeks in the NFL, there are a bunch of teams who are 3-1 or 4-0 and a bunch of teams who are 1-3 and 0-4....your job (or, my job) is to determine which teams arent 'what their record says they are'. Sometimes a team might be 1-3 but have been strong and are very unlucky to be in that position and vice versa.

That's what i'm looking for in week 5 in the NFL.

No...my system does not give a lot of weight to last week's Jets-SF game...nor does it overemphasize final scores in general -- or team overall records, for that matter.

I use 5 diverse offensive stats, and 5 defensive stats...in order to come up with my "power rating" for each team.

The large spread of this week's Monday Night game has more to do with Houston...which my system rates as 7.5 points better than the second-best team so far this year.

[Robert Fischer]

Looks like a fun project. Hope you hit all of them.


Can Sports betting be an investment? Sure. It's just like the horses.

I only see 1 good point spread bet every couple of weeks that I could make money on long-term.

I HATE obvious looking plays involving hyped or large-market teams. Especially not if the Home Team is the underdog.

An example from this week5 =
10/7 1:00 ET Atlanta -3 @Washington

^^ The above should OBVIOUS. Atlanta is much better than Washington. MUCH better, "RG3" the rookie QB of the Skins has now shown what he can and more importantly what he can't do under pressure/ vs. schemes/looks.

However I don't like betting these types. It's too obvious, and the underdog is at home.

Too many times you see a great disparity in the penalties, whether they are discreet drive killing calls, or with the replacement officials = blunt force calls lol. And the home team dog beats the spread. Just enough of these games, that I would go crazy betting on or against them.

anyway good luck :cool:

[HuggingTheRail]

Good luck! I am a numbers and stats junkie, I could ask you a million questions about what you are doing!! Go get 'em :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

so far ATL WASH 0-0 in 1st qtr. 2 penalties vs ATL

[horses4courses]

Ind. +7 ....G.B....($100)
K.C +6.5 ..Bal.....($100)
Sea. +2.5 .Car....($100)
Chi. -5.5 ...Jax.....($100)
Den. +6.5 .N.E....($150)
Buf. +10 ...S.F.....($100)
S.D. +3.5 ..N.O....($100)
Hou. -9 .... Jets....($150)



Excellent start, thaskalos

4-2, so far.
At $100/game (including vig), that's an outlay of $715, and a return of $840.
Keep up the good work!

[lamboguy]

i love it! one thing i know for sure is that Gus is playing more than $100 untis.

keep it up.

[thaskalos]

i love it! one thing i know for sure is that Gus is playing more than $100 untis.

keep it up.

The banks are giving no interest on our savings, Lambo...so I figured, why not? :)

I was going to mention how much I am really betting, but I didn't think it was appropriate...because it could not be proven. Besides...the betting unit is not what's important here.

I am convinced that I can double my bankroll every year betting on football and basketball...and, once I get my baseball system ready, I expect to do even better than that.

You don't need a huge starting bankroll and large wagers...when you can double your money and your bets every year.

Warren Buffett only averaged a 28% return per year...and he became the richest man in the world.

My own goals are much more modest than that... :)

[Pace Cap'n]

Excellent start, thaskalos

4-2, so far.
At $100/game (including vig), that's an outlay of $715, and a return of $840.
Keep up the good work!

How does that compute? Around here, that's an outlay of $220 and a return of $400.

[Relwob Owner]

The banks are giving no interest on our savings, Lambo...so I figured, why not? :)

I was going to mention how much I am really betting, but I didn't think it was appropriate...because it could not be proven. Besides...the betting unit is not what's important here.

I am convinced that I can double my bankroll every year betting on football and basketball...and, once I get my baseball system ready, I expect to do even better than that.

You don't need a huge starting bankroll and large wagers...when you can double your money and your bets every year.

Warren Buffett only averaged a 28% return per year...and he became the richest man in the world.

My own goals are much more modest than that... :)


Keep posting so I have something to root for....good luck!

[Striker]

Nice job this week Thask! Look forward to next week.

[lamboguy]

i don't know if they still have it, but i remember that the sportbooks in nevada would let you bet football games on friday night at 1/2 juice, $105-$100. saving $50 per thousand when you lose is big.

[TexasDolly]

i don't know if they still have it, but i remember that the sportbooks in nevada would let you bet football games on friday night at 1/2 juice, $105-$100. saving $50 per thousand when you lose is big.

The LV Hilton had 1.05 special on Thursday nights for one hour years ago. The lines were never especially good there for me so I could only make limited use of the deal. I heard that 1.08 was available now at one casino,but it is probably based on real big action.

[Jay Trotter]

Good luck Gus -- this is great to see! I'll be following along.

[horses4courses]

How does that compute? Around here, that's an outlay of $220 and a return of $400.

You don't get your vig back on a winner?
I'm moving to your area to make book - I'll give half back...... ;)

$220 wins you $200 in Nevada, for a return of $420.
thaskalos bet 6.5 units on those six games ($650 plus vig in my example).
That's where the $715 came from.

[thaskalos]

4-4 this week...losing $150 in the process.

Bankroll stands at $4,850.

[fiveouttasix]

2-0 this week if you only played the Home teams that qualified. I wonder how Home teams only would have done in your 2 year study.

[thaskalos]

2-0 this week if you only played the Home teams that qualified. I wonder how Home teams only would have done in your 2 year study.

When you play for profit, you have to sacrifice winning percentage for long-term gains.

The winning percentage is sure to be greater when you confine yourself to betting on the home teams, but the number of plays is reduced drastically...because most of the "overlays" will be visiting teams.

The objective is to win the most money...not to record the highest winning percentage.

[thaskalos]

CIN. -1......(150)
IND. +3.5..(150)
K.C. +4.5...(150)
ATL. -9.5....(100)
DAL. +3.5...(100)
DET. +3.5...(100)
HOU. -3.5....(100)
DEN. +1......(100)

[Robert Goren]

Good Luck, Gus. Sports betting violates one of my gambling rules. When I stopped playing blackjack, I made a rule to never bet against the house again. If you start to win consistently, they will stop taking your bets. These days it is so easy to track players, only the smallest of the small gamblers can stay below their radar and even then they find a lot of them.

[hugh]

Robert,
In Vegas you will always be able to get your bet down at the casinos (books). As long as you have a couple (or more) of friends. Just have them place the bets for you. As per online sportsbooks, I would never trust my money with them. They could be gone in an instant and your money would vanish into thin air. :confused:

Thaskalos,
If you are betting 100-150 a game you might want a membership with www.sportsinsights.com
At least sign up for the trial. I know you have your own system but every bit of info helps.
Good luck this year man.
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[thaskalos]

3-5 last week...losing $415.

8-10 overall...with the bankroll at $4,335.

This week's picks:

BUF. -3.5....$150
ST.L. +5....$100
NYG. -6.....$150
T.B. +1....$150
CHI. -6.....$150

[thaskalos]

Has any one of you ever gotten a "get well" card from your bookie?

Received mine today...:eek: