Ubercapper AKA Ellis Starr to Handicap this Weekend's Races on Winning Ponies Radio

[winningponies]

The Winning Ponies radio show has quite a treat for all the handicappers out there.

Our special guests this week are Julie Balog and Ellis Starr. Julie will be updating us on the happenings in Kentucky. She is the Director of Communications at Keeneland Association and has great insight on the Kentucky race scene.

Our next guest is known as the "Ubercapper." Ellis Starr has studied horse racing for over 35 years. His influence in the racing world is immense. He is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase, the Thoroughbred Industry's Official Source for Racing Info, and much more.

Don't miss this show folks. Tune in at 8pm EST to http://www.voiceamerica.com/Show/1448

[judd]

with all due respect, ellis starr doesnt pick many winners !

[Charli125]

with all due respect, ellis starr doesnt pick many winners !

I've seen him win quite a bit of money in Derbywars contests, so I know he's at least picking a lot of winners on those days!

[BillW]

I've seen him win quite a bit of money in Derbywars contests, so I know he's at least picking a lot of winners on those days!

He tends to do quite well in Keeneland contests too.

[judd]

I've seen him win quite a bit of money in Derbywars contests, so I know he's at least picking a lot of winners on those days! maybe im wrong

[duncan04]

maybe im wrong


Yup :rolleyes:

[racingfan378]

Maybe in Derby Wars he has some "luck", but for the price he charges for selections, his overall record is NOT THAT GOOD from the equibase website. I've had the chance to follow along with his selections (at no cost to me) and they arent worth the $14.50 investment. I have never played his tip sheet nor will I ever

Just take a look at his plays for Belmont Wednesday, he says to "pass two races" if they are moved to the main track. WTF!? I'm paying $14.50 for a product and I cant even get some help on those races? :mad:

Then in race 5 he had 2,8. The result was :7: :5: :4:

Race 6 he had 7,6,9. :5: was the clear winner.

Race 7 he had 6,9 and it ran :2: :5: :7:



http://www.equibase.com/premium/eebDownloadFreeProductAction.cfm?PFN=bel1003j.htm&PRODUCT_ID=50283

So if anyone still wants to be on his bandwagon, then wait until the next day for the free product from equibase and start keeping track of his winning plays.

Derby wars is just like any horse race contest and once you start losing, you start chasing longshots. He barely won a five figure contest and the people behind him did the exact same thing in chasing big priced horses.

[PaceAdvantage]

Maybe in Derby Wars he has some "luck", but for the price he charges for selections, his overall record is NOT THAT GOOD from the equibase website. I've had the chance to follow along with his selections (at no cost to me) and they arent worth the $14.50 investment. I have never played his tip sheet nor will I ever

Just take a look at his plays for Belmont Wednesday, he says to "pass two races" if they are moved to the main track. WTF!? I'm paying $14.50 for a product and I cant even get some help on those races? :mad:

Then in race 5 he had 2,8. The result was :7: :5: :4:

Race 6 he had 7,6,9. :5: was the clear winner.

Race 7 he had 6,9 and it ran :2: :5: :7:



http://www.equibase.com/premium/eebDownloadFreeProductAction.cfm?PFN=bel1003j.htm&PRODUCT_ID=50283

So if anyone still wants to be on his bandwagon, then wait until the next day for the free product from equibase and start keeping track of his winning plays.

Derby wars is just like any horse race contest and once you start losing, you start chasing longshots. He barely won a five figure contest and the people behind him did the exact same thing in chasing big priced horses.I hope you realize the argument you just presented was not very compelling.

[racingfan378]

Its not an argument, it is the facts.

He isnt good and the proof is in what he sells for a so-called tip sheet


If you paid $14.50 for a tip sheet and two races aren't covered, then I call that lazy. When you are in the public eye, you handicap a race, period! He can say that he would pass a race but with all of his "knowledge" you would think he would toss a horse or two into the mix and say "good luck, tread lightly, I dont like the race"

I have nothing else to say about Ellis and his premier selections. If anyone believes that his picks are good, then so be it :D

[PaceAdvantage]

Its not an argument, it is the facts. You provided three races where he got it wrong. Hardly compelling stuff... :lol:

And this assumes we all believe you have your facts correct, as we are relying on you to keep track...and don't take offense, but nobody knows who you are! Nobody knows who any of us are (for the most part)...

[ubercapper]

Every public handicapper has a target on his/her back and I'm fine with that, have been for nearly 20 years. I feel there is value in what I produce because I also tell readers why I picked a horse, not just that I picked a horse. I have no problem putting people in my head with my methodology, in order to help them become better handicappers, and more importantly, bettors. That's why all my selections have fair odds next to them, to help separate good bets from bad ones.

Value is in the eye of the beholder and if someone feels there's no value in purchasing the selections, that's certainly their right.

By the way, here are the picks I gave out on Winning Ponies:

Frizette: My Happy Face, Dreaming of Julia

Champagne: Goldencents, Micromanage, Shanghai Bobby (adding that I made them all 2/1 and will bet the one going to post at the highest odds)

TCA: Groupie Doll, Honey Chile, Giant Sensation
Breeders' Futurity: Tizracer, Java's War, Dynamic Sky, Balance the Books, Joha

Shadwell Mile: Wise Dan, Data Link, Swift Warrior, Doubles Partner

[JimG]

Ellis is an excellent public handicapper. He is especially good on the SoCal circuit. Played against him in many contests and he is a force in those. If I were supplementing my opinion with a public handicapper, Ellis would be my pick for Southern California along with Andy Serling for NYRA and Brad Thomas at Monmouth. They each seem to know those particular circuits and share good information on a regular basis. Anybody can pick 3/5 shots. These guys provide more.

Jim

[the little guy]

You provided three races where he got it wrong. Hardly compelling stuff... :lol:

And this assumes we all believe you have your facts correct, as we are relying on you to keep track...and don't take offense, but nobody knows who you are! Nobody knows who any of us are (for the most part)...


Come on, three races on a muddy track is more than enough to evaluate any handicapper. In fact, any horseplayer that has even one losing day a year at the racetrack clearly doesn't know his ( or her ) stuff.

Fortunately for me, I sweep the card on a daily basis. Anything less than 100% accuracy is unacceptable. After all, we're only trying to predict the future, it's not like we're doing something difficult like anonymously criticizing people on the internet.

[Charli125]

I have never played his tip sheet nor will I ever
Me neither, doesn't mean he's not a good handicapper with some good opinions and good things to say.

It's the rare public handicapper that can show a positive ROI when they're handicapping races that they would pass in their personal play.

[Itamaraca]

it's not like we're doing something difficult like anonymously criticizing people on the internet.

Is this in the forum terms of agreement? It seems that quite a few people here who have chosen to make their identity known take offense to those who chose not to. Or, at least, they seem to want to censor the comments of the anonymous (when they're not doing it outright, that is).

Nothing like the bullies getting together and complaining that those they're bullying aren't playing fair.

[Dave Schwartz]

Fortunately for me, I sweep the card on a daily basis. Anything less than 100% accuracy is unacceptable.

TLG,

I know you are lying! I saw you miss one ONCE!

:lol:

[Stillriledup]

Every public handicapper has a target on his/her back and I'm fine with that, have been for nearly 20 years. I feel there is value in what I produce because I also tell readers why I picked a horse, not just that I picked a horse. I have no problem putting people in my head with my methodology, in order to help them become better handicappers, and more importantly, bettors. That's why all my selections have fair odds next to them, to help separate good bets from bad ones.

Value is in the eye of the beholder and if someone feels there's no value in purchasing the selections, that's certainly their right.

By the way, here are the picks I gave out on Winning Ponies:

Frizette: My Happy Face, Dreaming of Julia

Champagne: Goldencents, Micromanage, Shanghai Bobby (adding that I made them all 2/1 and will bet the one going to post at the highest odds)

TCA: Groupie Doll, Honey Chile, Giant Sensation
Breeders' Futurity: Tizracer, Java's War, Dynamic Sky, Balance the Books, Joha

Shadwell Mile: Wise Dan, Data Link, Swift Warrior, Doubles Partner

I'm not sure why someone who calls themselves the UBER capper needs to release picks to the public. Why not just keep this amazing info to yourself and crush the windows? This isnt like the stock market, if you release a pick and someone sees your pick and writeup, that could depress your odds.

This is the age old debate that says if you were an elite horseplayer in society, it makes sense to NOT release your info to the public...unless, there's something i'm missing?

[wonatthewire1]

TLG,

I know you are lying! I saw you miss one ONCE!

:lol:


And that ONE, finished off the BOARD!
:faint:

[Robert Fischer]

I'm not sure why someone who calls themselves the UBER capper needs to release picks to the public. ....
....


It's a job.

If you are going to be a Professional, who gets paid for the service of releasing picks to the public, you need marketing. Some guys are on TV, others have a nickname. Believe it or not, the nicknames or slogans will tend to be "positive". This guy seems like a class act who works w/ Equibase, and the thread was presented in a classy way by a long time paid advertiser. He may even be pretty good at handicapping.

Why not save the rhetorical sarcasm for the amateurs who occasionally pop up promising huge unrealistic returns?

[Stillriledup]

It's a job.

If you are going to be a Professional, who gets paid for the service of releasing picks to the public, you need marketing. Some guys are on TV, others have a nickname. Believe it or not, the nicknames or slogans will tend to be "positive". This guy seems like a class act who works w/ Equibase, and the thread was presented in a classy way by a long time paid advertiser. He may even be pretty good at handicapping.

Why not save the rhetorical sarcasm for the amateurs who occasionally pop up promising huge unrealistic returns?

Sorry if i offended you in any way, it wasnt my intention. People who release selections to the public will always be asked the question "if you are so good, why sell". I didnt think that the question was too out of line, if it was, i apologize.

[Robert Fischer]

Sorry if i offended you in any way, it wasnt my intention. People who release selections to the public will always be asked the question "if you are so good, why sell". I didnt think that the question was too out of line, if it was, i apologize.

Look, you brick wall, there is a market for selling picks. Supply and demand. Have some respect for those who do it in a professional manner and or are good at it.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Sorry if i offended you in any way, it wasnt my intention. People who release selections to the public will always be asked the question "if you are so good, why sell". I didnt think that the question was too out of line, if it was, i apologize.

Some people have a nagging bit of common sense that reminds them of the fact that you can be a good handicapper, (hopefully) make money betting your strongest opinions, and yet, get a guaranteed income - the sort of thing that plays well in particular if you are domesticated. It's really not all THAT hard to come to grips with why someone would want to have the job, notwithstanding the (less than rock-solid) implication that they only play races that they select publicly and it is counterproductive in the mutuels. If you could get paid to handicap races, bet on the races, and talk about your opinions - you wouldn't do it under any circumstances just because your selections/opinions were damn good? The hard part of the job is dealing with other bettors that can't be bothered to listen to an analysis and have an attention span that only allows them to look at "picks" on the screen and then refuse to put in context why those picks appear on the screen. I've done it on a rather tiny scale, as a "toss in" job on top of a half-dozen others and it's an absolute blast coming with a top pick that pays $50 and then getting ridiculed for "not having" five other top-pick winners on the card that were "so easy" they paid $3.80 :bang: :bang:

I think that it's safe to assume that the world's most profitable handicappers don't appear in print or on television. But I also think it is totally flawed logic to assume that a public handicapper can't be of any use to someone simply because he or she isn't among the world's most profitable handicappers. I'm not very good, but I did take a certain amount of pride in those occassions when someone would thank me for pointing out that a 4-5 shot was vulnerable for a few subtle reasons on that day and managed to avoid losing a pile of money - even if my "top pick" didn't cross the wire first.

[thaskalos]

This is the age old debate that says if you were an elite horseplayer in society, it makes sense to NOT release your info to the public...unless, there's something i'm missing?

Every time I turn on TVG and see what is out there masquerading as legitimate handicapping talent, I wish that there was an Andy Serling among them...who could give this game the seriousness and the sophistication that it deserves.

Don't you? Of course you do!

And now you are criticizing these competent public handicappers...and questioning the motives of why they do what they do...

Not fair, SRU...IMO.

[PhantomOnTour]

The problem i have with those who criticize public handicappers is that most of you would take their job in a NY minute if it was offered to you.
I know i would....get paid to make picks on horse races?
HELL YEAH !

We love to hate on TLG and TVG but wouldn't we ourselves jump at the chance to host Talkin Horses or The Morning Line?
Don't lie

[thaskalos]

The problem i have with those who criticize public handicappers is that most of you would take their job in a NY minute if it was offered to you.
I know i would....get paid to make picks on horse races?
HELL YEAH !

We love to hate on TLG and TVG but wouldn't we ourselves jump at the chance to host Talkin Horses or The Morning Line?
Don't lie

There is a perception held by some, that "winning" handicappers are just raking in the money...and could not be persuaded to share their "secrets" at any price.

This perception is far from the truth.

In reality, "winning" at this game is extremely difficult and time-demanding, and -- unlike any other "job" out there -- it does not provide the regular paycheck that our life's situations often demand.

I applaud those who have managed to use the "real" handicapping knowledge that they possess, to secure a steady paycheck for themselves; we would all do the same in an instant...given the opportunity.

[Track Phantom]

There are two things everyone is missing:

1. Handicapping is a long, long way from betting. Some of the best handicappers often have a hard time making money on their opinions, as odd as that seems.

2. Ego. Certain people (me included) enjoy being right. It's even better when they'e right when almost everyone is wrong (i.e. longshot).

It's narrow sighted to think someone providing/selling their opinions is solely in the game to make money. While that is how we keep score, it isn't the only reason people involve themselves.

Creating a good tip sheet with good data takes A LOT of time when done right. If that 'capper is digging and providing thought provoking information and can identify live priced runners, they should be paid for that effort (outside of their own betting).

Lastly, I've dabbled off and on providing analysis for about 15 years or so. Rarely have I done it for money. The main reason is it gives me an outlet in the game that isn't solely based on a balance sheet. Quite honestly, that can get boring. I hit a 38k pick 4 at Del Mar in August and I was almost equally as happy that I had all four winners picked in my public analysis for Del Mar. I know that is strange....

[Stillriledup]

Look, you brick wall, there is a market for selling picks. Supply and demand. Have some respect for those who do it in a professional manner and or are good at it.

Why would you think its disrespectful to ask a few questions about the credentials of the seller and the reason that someone might call themselves UBER and still find the need to sell picks to make money.

I do respect the people out there who are selling a top notch product and doing it the right way, i know how hard it is to acquire elite information, its not easy, there is a lot of blood, sweat and tears that goes along with being better than the pack. If i was selling my picks and info, i would expect people to question my credentials as well as maybe some proof that i actually win and i wouldnt take any offense to it, i would know that's part of the territory.

[Track Phantom]

maybe some proof that i actually win and i wouldnt take any offense to it, i would know that's part of the territory.

One isn't related to the other. Whether someone wins has little to do with whether they can handicap. Case in point...I spent all of 45 seconds putting together a $27 pick 4 at Hoosier yesterday and just threw a firster in the 2nd race without giving it much thought. Could tell you nothing about the horse. It won at 62-1 and I hit the pick 4 by myself for 7400. Conversely, at Santa Anita yesterday, I had a 29-1 shot on top in my analysis for the SA website. It ran 2nd by a head bob and the horse that won was my 2nd choice on the website. I made nothing. I'm pretty sure those that read that analysis would have been impressed.

"Drive for show and putt for dough"... Handicapping gets you on the green. How you bet determines your PNL.

[woodtoo]

The Winning Ponies radio show has quite a treat for all the handicappers out there.

Our special guests this week are Julie Balog and Ellis Starr. Julie will be updating us on the happenings in Kentucky. She is the Director of Communications at Keeneland Association and has great insight on the Kentucky race scene.

Our next guest is known as the "Ubercapper." Ellis Starr has studied horse racing for over 35 years. His influence in the racing world is immense. He is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase, the Thoroughbred Industry's Official Source for Racing Info, and much more.

Don't miss this show folks. Tune in at 8pm EST to http://www.voiceamerica.com/Show/1448

Sooo...how did he do?

[Robert Fischer]

Why would you think its disrespectful to ask a few questions about the credentials of the seller and the reason that someone might call themselves UBER and still find the need to sell picks to make money.

I do respect the people out there who are selling a top notch product and doing it the right way, i know how hard it is to acquire elite information, its not easy, there is a lot of blood, sweat and tears that goes along with being better than the pack. If i was selling my picks and info, i would expect people to question my credentials as well as maybe some proof that i actually win and i wouldnt take any offense to it, i would know that's part of the territory.

I want to apologize. No hard feelings. It really appeared that your comment was rhetorical in nature. Your genuine confusion as to how that could be frowned upon makes it clear that I was wrong.

[judd]

free pick sun keenland race 8 -- :ThmbDown:6-3-11

came in 5-11-7-10

[ubercapper]

Sooo...how did he do?

These were the picks given out on the show (also listed in post 11 on this thread and well in advance of the races).

Frizette: My Happy Face, Dreaming of Julia

Champagne: Goldencents, Micromanage, Shanghai Bobby (adding that I made them all 2/1 and will bet the one going to post at the highest odds)

TCA: Groupie Doll, Honey Chile, Giant Sensation
Breeders' Futurity: Tizracer, Java's War, Dynamic Sky, Balance the Books, Joha

Shadwell Mile: Wise Dan, Data Link, Swift Warrior, Doubles Partner

For this particular show I was asked to discuss of the grade 1's on the weekend and those were the picks on my selections so those were the picks I gave out on the show. Obviously, they were chalky because for the most part those races were predicable.

[PaceAdvantage]

This isnt like the stock market, if you release a pick and someone sees your pick and writeup, that could depress your odds.Let me ask you a question.

Let's say you come up with an amazing trading system in the stock market...is it advantageous to YOU to release that system to the masses? No, it certainly IS NOT.

I would also counter your claim that "this isn't like the stock market." At a certain point, if enough people start following your picks in the stock market, IT WILL become disadvantageous to you and your attempts at profiting from your pick.

It is EXACTLY like the stock market...only the SCALE is different...

[PaceAdvantage]

One isn't related to the other. Whether someone wins has little to do with whether they can handicap. Case in point...I spent all of 45 seconds putting together a $27 pick 4 at Hoosier yesterday and just threw a firster in the 2nd race without giving it much thought. Could tell you nothing about the horse. It won at 62-1 and I hit the pick 4 by myself for 7400. Conversely, at Santa Anita yesterday, I had a 29-1 shot on top in my analysis for the SA website. It ran 2nd by a head bob and the horse that won was my 2nd choice on the website. I made nothing. I'm pretty sure those that read that analysis would have been impressed.

"Drive for show and putt for dough"... Handicapping gets you on the green. How you bet determines your PNL.You get points for being able to tout yourself twice in one thread...

[ubercapper]

free pick sun keenland race 8 -- :ThmbDown:6-3-11

came in 5-11-7-10

Really? You chose to cite the one race that was posted publicly today, which also happened to be the Spinster Stakes, the Equibase and America's Best Racing weekly featured race, and one which I have no choice over posting or not, as an example of my work.

Earlier in the thread, I think it was racingfan that posted he has never purchased my picks but he reviews them the day after (when they are free starting at 12:01 am) and that's how he came to his conclusion, except it was based on one day, and a bad day at that in which the turf races were rained off and there was little value in what was left due to short fields.

Since you chose to use this one race at Keeneland today as an example, I ask that you look at the entire three days of the meeting before drawing conclusions. You can go to Equibase or Trackmaster and click on yesterday's free picks then just change the date in the URL to see the reports for other than the most recent day. You will see (staring tomorrow when today's picks are posted) that in 29 races to date at the meeting, the top choice has won 9 times, with nine more top choices finishing 2nd or third, two of those at big prices (one by a narrow margin today that cost me a big score), and with the top pick in the 9th today paying $49. This last winner continues to prove to me that even though I may come up with a nice price now and again, apparently enough people aren't wagering on it to significantly lower the odds.

I don't post often, and even though it's been enlightening to see so many people on these boards get it regarding why someone would want to be a public handicapper, I probably won't be heard from for a long time again. However, before I go I want to point out that most people more knowledgeable and respected than me have always had many irons in the fire to make a living in addition to betting, names such as James Quinn (writes books, teaches seminars, sells selections), Tom Brohamer (writes books, taught seminars, sells selections) and Andy Beyer (writes a column, licensed his figure to the DRF what I guess is a continuing fee). I've been doing this for 16 years, and apparently the market gets enough value from what I produce that I'm still doing it.

Good Luck to everyone at the races.

[PaceAdvantage]

free pick sun keenland race 8 -- :ThmbDown:6-3-11

came in 5-11-7-10That settles it then, doesn't it? :rolleyes: :lol: :bang:

[Stillriledup]

Let me ask you a question.

Let's say you come up with an amazing trading system in the stock market...is it advantageous to YOU to release that system to the masses? No, it certainly IS NOT.

I would also counter your claim that "this isn't like the stock market." At a certain point, if enough people start following your picks in the stock market, IT WILL become disadvantageous to you and your attempts at profiting from your pick.

It is EXACTLY like the stock market...only the SCALE is different...

I'm not an expert in the stock market, but if you purchase a stock, dont you want everyone else to purchase the same stock? Isnt there incentive to release stock picks to the world, especially if people might listen and buy them?

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm not an expert in the stock market, but if you purchase a stock, dont you want everyone else to purchase the same stock? Isnt there incentive to release stock picks to the world, especially if people might listen and buy them?First off, it's not likely you'll ever get a big enough following of retail traders (ie. those people who don't have TONS of money) to move anything significantly. And it's even less likely you'll ever get a smaller following of institutional traders (ie. those people who DO have tons of money to move the stock).

You might be able to benefit (while NOT having to get that big a following to move prices) if you were touting penny stocks, but that would most likely be deemed an illegal pump and dump scheme. http://www.pumpsanddumps.com/p/its-pump-dump.html

And even if you did eventually get tons of people following your stock pick enough to markedly influence the price, eventually, the market itself will correct the price inefficiency you are artificially creating. The more people that want in, the more quickly the price will move higher and those who aren't FIRST in the door will be caught buying near the top of the move, and will most likely LOSE as price corrects itself after the tout run is over...turning many of the followers into losers.

In short, it's not going to work.

[Stillriledup]

First off, it's not likely you'll ever get a big enough following of retail traders (ie. those people who don't have TONS of money) to move anything significantly. And it's even less likely you'll ever get a smaller following of institutional traders (ie. those people who DO have tons of money to move the stock).

You might be able to benefit (while NOT having to get that big a following to move prices) if you were touting penny stocks, but that would most likely be deemed an illegal pump and dump scheme. http://www.pumpsanddumps.com/p/its-pump-dump.html

And even if you did eventually get tons of people following your stock pick enough to markedly influence the price, eventually, the market itself will correct the price inefficiency you are artificially creating. The more people that want in, the more quickly the price will move higher and those who aren't FIRST in the door will be caught buying near the top of the move, and will most likely LOSE as price corrects itself after the tout run is over...turning many of the followers into losers.

In short, it's not going to work.

I understand that unless you're Warren Buffet or someone equally as powerful, what you say isnt going to have much of an effect on market price because of the size of the 'betting pools' in the market. But, my point was that in theory, you want as many people as you can 'betting' on your picks and that isnt the case in horse racing.

[woodtoo]

These were the picks given out on the show (also listed in post 11 on this thread and well in advance of the races).

Frizette: My Happy Face, Dreaming of Julia

Champagne: Goldencents, Micromanage, Shanghai Bobby (adding that I made them all 2/1 and will bet the one going to post at the highest odds)

TCA: Groupie Doll, Honey Chile, Giant Sensation
Breeders' Futurity: Tizracer, Java's War, Dynamic Sky, Balance the Books, Joha

Shadwell Mile: Wise Dan, Data Link, Swift Warrior, Doubles Partner

For this particular show I was asked to discuss of the grade 1's on the weekend and those were the picks on my selections so those were the picks I gave out on the show. Obviously, they were chalky because for the most part those races were predicable.

Well done:ThmbUp:

[Track Phantom]

You get points for being able to tout yourself twice in one thread...

How?

[duncan04]

How?


You really have to ask that? You bragged about two pick 4 hits! :bang:

[Track Phantom]

You really have to ask that? You bragged about two pick 4 hits! :bang:

Did I? Brag is an interesting choice of words.

[duncan04]

Did I? Brag is an interesting choice of words.

Maybe brag wasn't the right choice of words. But that is what P.A. was talking about

[Hajck Hillstrom]

The simple truth is that the Ubercapper is an Ubergoodguy. Interesting, informative, passionate, and we, as fellow handicappers, want him to view the races differently than we do.

I am one of the fortunate ones to see the transformation of Mr. Starr from a struggling handicapper at the Lancaster, CA satellite wagering facility in the early `90's to the position he currently holds in Lexington. It has been a long road where his perseverance and diligence have duly rewarded.

When it comes to making thoroughbred selections, Ellis and I rarely agree, except for that time back in `92 when we both keyed the same horse to a $1,800 trifecta, but I will always listen to what he says, and draw my own conclusions.

The last time I saw my good friend was at the `07 Kentucky Oaks/Derby. After hitting the Derby Superfecta for $14.5k, we dined at Malones and raised our glasses to to those innocent days in the High Desert.

Remember.... a public handicapper doesn't have to bring a winner for an effective analysis. Information and perspective is what we, as fellow handicappers, want to hear.... and Ellis Starr does that with aplomb.

[thaskalos]

The simple truth is that the Ubercapper is an Ubergoodguy. Interesting, informative, passionate, and we, as fellow handicappers, want him to view the races differently than we do.

I am one of the fortunate ones to see the transformation of Mr. Starr from a struggling handicapper at the Lancaster, CA satellite wagering facility in the early `90's to the position he currently holds in Lexington. It has been a long road where his perseverance and diligence have duly rewarded.

When it comes to making thoroughbred selections, Ellis and I rarely agree, except for that time back in `92 when we both keyed the same horse to a $1,800 trifecta, but I will always listen to what he says, and draw my own conclusions.

The last time I saw my good friend was at the `07 Kentucky Oaks/Derby. After hitting the Derby Superfecta for $14.5k, we dined at Malones and raised our glasses to to those innocent days in the High Desert.

Remember.... a public handicapper doesn't have to bring a winner for an effective analysis. Information and perspective is what we, as fellow handicappers, want to hear.... and Ellis Starr does that with aplomb.
BRAVO! :ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

There's no reason to let one or two detractors get to you. When you're in the public eye, there are always going to be curmudgeons looking to stir the pot.

Shrug it off...

[BMeadow]

I had dinner with Ellis Starr last Friday. He takes his handicapping very seriously and works hard to come up with his selections and comments. He cares.

I've noticed over the years that whenever the subject of public handicappers comes up, the thread goes like this:
A: "Selector Steve was on the radio and gave out two picks and they both lost. What an idiot."
B: "I've bought his picks occasionally and I think he's pretty good."
A: "If he's so good, why doesn't he quit his job and just gamble? I checked his picks for three days and he was 1-for-14. He's terrible."
B: "If he's so terrible, how come people keep buying his picks after all these years?"

Let me briefly comment. There are three things a professional gambler must do to succeed (as distinct from a professional handicapper). He has to gather information, analyze the information to form an opinion, then risk his own money based on that opinion. Whether he makes money depends on his ability to use that opinion optimally in the betting sphere.

The professional handicapper has to do the first two, but not the third. He does have to present his opinion in such a way that the buyer perceives that the information has value. Whether he makes money depends on his ability to consistently offer value to the consumer.

Those of us who have gambled full-time (which I did for more than 20 years until I retired in 2011) understand the difference between these two, and why so few professional handicappers are also professional gamblers. To bet full time, you need to actually WANT to bet full time, which many professional handicappers don't--and then to have the ability to do so.

Many professional handicappers also have additional racing-related tasks besides handicapping. Or have full-time, regular jobs.

The professional gambler not only must do everything the public handicapper does (except for writing up his comments), but he also has to spend all day watching and betting races live.

To become a professional gambler, you of course have to be an excellent handicapper to have any chance of long-term success. But much more is involved. You'll need a decent bankroll, and enough money to tide you through when you hit losing patches, which can last for months. You'll need a high tolerance for volatility. Then there's the emotional calmness necessary when you've just lost (or won) a large amount. You have to have the ability to figure out exactly how to play a particular race or race sequence, which includes which bets to make and how much to bet. You'll need the discipline to pick your spots, which includes the patience to sit on your hands if nothing presents itself. You should be comfortable with working alone, often in a room by yourself all day with no human contact. Day after day after day. And not be afraid of risks.

You also have to keep an eye out for the best rebate deals. Maybe investigate offshore race books and betting exchanges. Do your accounting and analysis every day. While all the while everybody you know thinks you're either a bookie or some degenerate sicko.

So let's not be too hard on the professional handicapper. After all, consumers choose whose picks to buy (if anyone's). Anybody who can last as long as Ellis Starr has in this very competitive business deserves respect.

[RXB]

Great post, Barry.

[Vinnie]

Very succinct and nicely stated post Mr. Meadow. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. One thing for sure, due to often way too much unnecessary and in my opinion undue scrutiny, the Public Handicapper is almost never allowed to enjoy an easy time of it in essentially any respect. Kudos to Mr. Starr. :)

[judd]

who bought dinner ?:p

[ubercapper]

who bought dinner ?:p

We fought over the check until my wife stepped on my foot and I let go of it, at which point it ended up in Barry's lap. :)

I may have said this in a previous post but I am pleasantly surprised to see so many people "get it" about the profession of being a public handicapper, for those that treat it as such and not just give it a shot because they see others doing it and think it means big bucks.

When we started the selection division at TrackMaster in the mid-90's there were many months where the wages (when figured on a per hour basis) weren't any better than an hourly employee at McDonalds and as one might expect many people decided it wasn't for them either because of the hours required, the money earned, or both.

[judd]

with all due respect, ellis starr doesnt pick many winners ! check his paid breeders cup selections sat____:sleeping::sleeping::faint:

[horses4courses]

check his paid breeders cup selections sat____:sleeping::sleeping::faint:

Yeah, he must have been the only capper not to win on BC.... :rolleyes:

judd, you seem to be fixated on Mr. Starr's business.
Why don't you divert more of your time and energy to what you do best - picking winners, maybe?

[judd]

i dont pick winners anymore

[duncan04]

i dont pick winners anymore


No he is more interested in stalking Ellis Starr :rolleyes: :ThmbDown:

[JimG]

check his paid breeders cup selections sat____:sleeping::sleeping::faint:

Ok, He had:

George Vancouver listed 2nd....Paid 20.60
Groupie Doll listed 2nd....Paid 3.40
Mizdirection listed 3rd....Paid 15.80
Shanghai Bobby listed 3rd...Paid 4.60
Wise Dan listed 3rd...Paid 5.60

That's five BC winners amongst his top 3 contenders. Not as horrible as I expected to find, based on your post. He had none on top, so I guess that is what you are alluding to. I prefer public handicappers not to put $4 winners on top. I can find those thanks to the crowd. Speaking for myself, I was nowhere near GV or Mizdirection, so I could have used his input there.

I've certainly picked worse as I am sure Ellis has. The BC is one of the hardest days to handicap as there are many factors to consider.

Jim

[v j stauffer]

Ok, He had:

George Vancouver listed 2nd....Paid 20.60
Groupie Doll listed 2nd....Paid 3.40
Mizdirection listed 3rd....Paid 15.80
Shanghai Bobby listed 3rd...Paid 4.60
Wise Dan listed 3rd...Paid 5.60

That's five BC winners amongst his top 3 contenders. Not as horrible as I expected to find, based on your post. He had none on top, so I guess that is what you are alluding to. I prefer public handicappers not to put $4 winners on top. I can find those thanks to the crowd. Speaking for myself, I was nowhere near GV or Mizdirection, so I could have used his input there.

I've certainly picked worse as I am sure Ellis has. The BC is one of the hardest days to handicap as there are many factors to consider.

Jim

Looks like Zero for 5 to me.

[JimG]

Looks like Zero for 5 to me.

What an insightful post Vic. You are a real treasure here at Pace Advantage. I prefer to look at the glass as half full as opposed to half empty. Many of us delve a little deeper into a race than just a top pick, especially BC races. I'm not saying Ellis had a great day with these picks, but I have been in many contests with the guy and I know he can handicap.

Jim

[duncan04]

Looks like Zero for 5 to me.


Wow great post :rolleyes: Thank god you checked in. :ThmbDown: Stick to calling races

[Dahoss9698]

Wow great post :rolleyes: Thank god you checked in. :ThmbDown: Stick to calling races
He's just looking for attention. Ignoring his desperate pleas is much more effective than criticizing him.

[horses4courses]

For one who often reacts when posters critique race callers, you think he might know better. :rolleyes:

[Onion Monster]

I've purchased his picks in the past. His selection method is quite unconventional and always interesting; he hates favorites and seeks out long priced horses. You could do far worse in supplementing your analysis.

[v j stauffer]

The guy may be the greatest handicapper and nicest person ever. All I said was as a testament to his "solid" day handicapping five races where his top pick didn't win were posted as evidence.

I didn't call him out personally like many of you love to do with me. Talk about overreaction. Sheesh. :bang:

As always PA a very tough room.

Thanks for listening.

[v j stauffer]

He's just looking for attention. Ignoring his desperate pleas is much more effective than criticizing him.

Hoss. It's been a long time since you've said something like that about me. If I am so desperate wouldn't you think I'd do alot more things to accomplish the very thing you've accused me of?

Might be time for some new material.

Why can't I have my takes just like everybody else and not be psycho-analyized any time I add something that might be controversial?

Am I the only one that mixes it up a bit? Isn't that the entire concept of this forum in the first place?

[racingfan378]

I agree with Vic, Ellis might not give you chalk, but if the chalk wins a race in the pick 4,5,6 sequence then guess what, you just lost!

My point is for public handicappers to give us the winners, chalk or not, let the fan decide what is and what isnt the right odds to bet on each horse. I will take even money all day on a horse if they are suppose to win the race based on my studies.

One of my hits (playing chalk) came on the last race 4 years ago at Delaware in the slop. 8 horse field. The favorites stood out at 4/5 and 9/5 so I did a $1 super 7/8/all/all....7 won 8 was 2nd and a 99-1 came third, 50-1 came fourth. It paid $1,500 (on the $1 ticket) for a minor investment.

If Ellis was handicapping the race he would have went with someone at 10-1. Thats NOT how this game works. We look at the race, pick who we think has a chance to win and go from there.

I've said it once and I'll say it again, anyone who buys his selections is wasting $15 or so bucks PER TRACK and sure as hell not turning a profit at the end of a monthly period.

[Track Phantom]

I agree with Vic, Ellis might not give you chalk, but if the chalk wins a race in the pick 4,5,6 sequence then guess what, you just lost!

My point is for public handicappers to give us the winners, chalk or not, let the fan decide what is and what isnt the right odds to bet on each horse. I will take even money all day on a horse if they are suppose to win the race based on my studies.

One of my hits (playing chalk) came on the last race 4 years ago at Delaware in the slop. 8 horse field. The favorites stood out at 4/5 and 9/5 so I did a $1 super 7/8/all/all....7 won 8 was 2nd and a 99-1 came third, 50-1 came fourth. It paid $1,500 (on the $1 ticket) for a minor investment.

If Ellis was handicapping the race he would have went with someone at 10-1. Thats NOT how this game works. We look at the race, pick who we think has a chance to win and go from there.

I've said it once and I'll say it again, anyone who buys his selections is wasting $15 or so bucks PER TRACK and sure as hell not turning a profit at the end of a monthly period.

Disagree 100%. Someone posting public analysis should have a balance between (likely) low priced favorites and viable prices on top. However, someone reading the detail should focus SOLELY on the analysis and very little on who is 1st, 2nd and 3rd. In my opinion, you should integrate those thoughts, ideas and selections into your own hypothesis about a race and not worry whether or not Ellis Star had very likley winner, Groupie Doll, picked 1st or 2nd.

Some of my best analysis has been where I had two priced horses run 1-2 and I had them picked in opposite order. Are you telling me there is no value in that? If so, we hit a fork in the road in this conversation.

By the way, a handicapper score (like a Beyer number) would be a good way to gauge handicappers.

[racingfan378]

Well his score would be a 20 on the Beyer scale

In regards to your wrong order value exacta I don't have anything bad to say about that BUT we all know that doesnt happen every single race. We all know 3 times out of 10 the favorite will be in there somewhere and you cant always toss the chalk out WHEN the chalk figures.

How pissed would you be if you went 3 for 4 in a pick 4 with horses 10-1 or higher and missed a 7/5 horse b/c you don't want to play chalk!? You know how much that would have paid!?!


Personally, I think Andy Serling from NYRA is a solid handicapper out there. He will back the chalk when deemed necessary and will say he/she sucks at other times.

Now I do know people don't like Andy's hard shell personality, but I don't know the guy, I am just talking from a handicapping point of view. Same with Ellis, I don't know the man, but I don't like the way his tip sheet is setup and I will stick with the fact that I highly doubt anyone on this site is in the black betting off of what he has to say paying a crazy rate for losing selections.

You know who I wish I could follow but I only see him at Fairplex is Gordon Jones. Getting a little long in the tooth but I enjoy his style quite a bit.

[Track Phantom]

Well his score would be a 20 on the Beyer scale

In regards to your wrong order value exacta I don't have anything bad to say about that BUT we all know that doesnt happen every single race. We all know 3 times out of 10 the favorite will be in there somewhere and you cant always toss the chalk out WHEN the chalk figures.

How pissed would you be if you went 3 for 4 in a pick 4 with horses 10-1 or higher and missed a 7/5 horse b/c you don't want to play chalk!? You know how much that would have paid!?!


Personally, I think Andy Serling from NYRA is a solid handicapper out there. He will back the chalk when deemed necessary and will say he/she sucks at other times.

Now I do know people don't like Andy's hard shell personality, but I don't know the guy, I am just talking from a handicapping point of view. Same with Ellis, I don't know the man, but I don't like the way his tip sheet is setup and I will stick with the fact that I highly doubt anyone on this site is in the black betting off of what he has to say paying a crazy rate for losing selections.

You know who I wish I could follow but I only see him at Fairplex is Gordon Jones. Getting a little long in the tooth but I enjoy his style quite a bit.

A couple of comments:

Interesting you should mention about missing a pick 4. That happened to me JUST LAST NIGHT at Los Al. I played a small pick 4 and singled the 2nd favorite in the 1st leg. The obvious 4-5 favorite won. I hit the other 3 in the sequence (including a 27-1 in which I used only two runners) and the pick 4 paid $2,500. I got ZIP. I agree....that DID suck! :)

I think you're looking at public handicappers incorrectly. Rarely, do I have solid conviction on just ONE runner. Usually, there are a few that are interesting options. Unfortunately, I'm somewhat bound by the 1st, 2nd and 3rd methodology.

Let me ask you this...perfect question for this discussion. If you go out to my site www.trackphantom.com (http://www.trackphantom.com) and look at my Friday's BC analysis, you'll notice that in the first two BC races, my top choice didn't win. However, my "live longshot" won both of those races (Hightail at 15-1 and Calidoscopio at 17-1). My top choice ran 2nd (by a nose) and 3rd. So, in your opinion, that analysis is worthless since my top choice won neither race?

[thaskalos]

Let me ask you this...perfect question for this discussion. If you go out to my site www.trackphantom.com (http://www.trackphantom.com) and look at my Friday's BC analysis, you'll notice that in the first two BC races, my top choice didn't win. However, my "live longshot" won both of those races (Hightail at 15-1 and Calidoscopio at 17-1). My top choice ran 2nd (by a nose) and 3rd. So, in your opinion, that analysis is worthless since my top choice won neither race?

I went to your website but could not find said analysis.

But, in any case, I must say that a public handicapper's pre-race analysis should not be judged solely by the performance of his "top picks".

The vast majority of those who seek the services of public handicappers are infrequent players...who may miss certain valuable information about the horses, and the circumstances under which they ran. If the public handicapper can provide some insight to fill in the gaps -- along with the 'picks' -- then he has done his job, as far as I am concerned.

The bettors who are only looking for "winning picks" are in a hopeless situation...and they will discover that fact themselves soon enough. The only hope is for those who can use the public handicapper's "insight" to come to their own conclusions about a race.

[racingfan378]

A couple of comments:

Interesting you should mention about missing a pick 4. That happened to me JUST LAST NIGHT at Los Al. I played a small pick 4 and singled the 2nd favorite in the 1st leg. The obvious 4-5 favorite won. I hit the other 3 in the sequence (including a 27-1 in which I used only two runners) and the pick 4 paid $2,500. I got ZIP. I agree....that DID suck! :)

I think you're looking at public handicappers incorrectly. Rarely, do I have solid conviction on just ONE runner. Usually, there are a few that are interesting options. Unfortunately, I'm somewhat bound by the 1st, 2nd and 3rd methodology.

Let me ask you this...perfect question for this discussion. If you go out to my site www.trackphantom.com (http://www.trackphantom.com) and look at my Friday's BC analysis, you'll notice that in the first two BC races, my top choice didn't win. However, my "live longshot" won both of those races (Hightail at 15-1 and Calidoscopio at 17-1). My top choice ran 2nd (by a nose) and 3rd. So, in your opinion, that analysis is worthless since my top choice won neither race?


Then I would say you are better than Ellis ! :D

My bottom line is simple, there are races to where you need to toss in the favorite, there are races you have to press the ALL button in certain situations, but don't shy away from the favorite b/c they are the favorite. Pick the top 3 or 4 you think are going to hit the board and if you like the favorite and dont want to swallow a short price then explain that. You cant beat Zenyatta when she is facing a field of weak ladies. You cant find value in that race other than an ice cold ex or tri.

I want a public handicapper to give the top 4 choices based on ability, not odds, then part two can be to explain why you are betting the way you are or why you think we should try to beat the chalk. Again, Andy from NYRA does that the best AND his advice is FREE;)

[Track Phantom]

Then I would say you are better than Ellis ! :D

My bottom line is simple, there are races to where you need to toss in the favorite, there are races you have to press the ALL button in certain situations, but don't shy away from the favorite b/c they are the favorite. Pick the top 3 or 4 you think are going to hit the board and if you like the favorite and dont want to swallow a short price then explain that. You cant beat Zenyatta when she is facing a field of weak ladies. You cant find value in that race other than an ice cold ex or tri.

I want a public handicapper to give the top 4 choices based on ability, not odds, then part two can be to explain why you are betting the way you are or why you think we should try to beat the chalk. Again, Andy from NYRA does that the best AND his advice is FREE;)

I agree with it in this context. I do not think a Public Hanidcapper should put a priced runner on top simply because he is better odds.

When I do it, I try to make sure I'm not "just picking winners" and not to be "a hero" either. I'm trying to find the actual winner of the race but realize the best horse doesn't always win. It's not a science, believe me. That is why I encourage people to read into the analysis more than the actual selections.

I remember the local handicapper at Canterbury, Kevin Gorg, say one time "I really like the 10 (was 12-1 morning line) but he said he had to "go with the favorite to protect his win percentage". I absolutely HATE that approach and is why I think win percentage for a public handicapper is meaningless. I can pick 30% winners from the program alone. I'd much rather have a 20% win percentage with a fair win odds average (7-2, 4-1, etc.) rather than a 40% win percentage with low average win odds (3-2, 2-1, etc.)

Again, it is hardly a science. I would qualify a good public handicapper that can identify live priced runners with meaningful supporting detail but also carry a decent win percentage and able to identify races in which prices are not likely to make an impression. Andy Serling--- YES. Les Onaka -- NO.

[Track Phantom]

I went to your website but could not find said analysis.

But, in any case, I must say that a public handicapper's pre-race analysis should not be judged solely by the performance of his "top picks".

The vast majority of those who seek the services of public handicappers are infrequent players...who may miss certain valuable information about the horses, and the circumstances under which they ran. If the public handicapper can provide some insight to fill in the gaps -- along with the 'picks' -- then he has done his job, as far as I am concerned.

The bettors who are only looking for "winning picks" are in a hopeless situation...and they will discover that fact themselves soon enough. The only hope is for those who can use the public handicapper's "insight" to come to their own conclusions about a race.

Here was my analysis for those two races. It is under the "login area". By the way, I made nothing on either of these two races. So, even a good opinion doesn't garauntee a payoff. It's a tough game.

http://i968.photobucket.com/albums/ae169/valento07/AnalysisBC4th5th-1.jpg