Favorite's Question

[DigitalDownsJoe]

Please dont rip me if this has been discussed before. I was wondering if someone could explain value on favorites based on size of field and odds. Is it possible that a 8/5 shot is actually a value bet? I have always had a hard time betting favorites, unless i get some decent paying exactas. I dont like risking more money to win less(in comparison to longer shots, i like betting 2nd or 3rd choices). I been doing this awhile and I just think that its time I get on the bandwagon and start betting favorites more. In doing so, I was hoping someone could explain how PP and fields size along with odds and comparison to other close choices factor in if you bet the favorite, go elsewhere, or just pass all together. Also do any of you do a few homerun plays on the card? Thanks to anyone who responds..

I am sure it is similar in how I choose my longer shots. I look at strike rate/pace/and i ask my self in relation to the favorite and others can this horse win 1 out of (whatever the odds are 5/1)5 times. Is there some type of equation maybe like post position/ jockey strike rate/trainer strike rate/speed rating etc.. then compare numbers and look in relation to odds. Sorry if this is jumbled, but as much info or atleast a point to a book would be great :)

[acorn54]

Please dont rip me if this has been discussed before. I was wondering if someone could explain value on favorites based on size of field and odds. Is it possible that a 8/5 shot is actually a value bet? I have always had a hard time betting favorites, unless i get some decent paying exactas. I dont like risking more money to win less(in comparison to longer shots, i like betting 2nd or 3rd choices). I been doing this awhile and I just think that its time I get on the bandwagon and start betting favorites more. In doing so, I was hoping someone could explain how PP and fields size along with odds and comparison to other close choices factor in if you bet the favorite, go elsewhere, or just pass all together. Also do any of you do a few homerun plays on the card? Thanks to anyone who responds..

I am sure it is similar in how I choose my longer shots. I look at strike rate/pace/and i ask my self in relation to the favorite and others can this horse win 1 out of (whatever the odds are 5/1)5 times. Is there some type of equation maybe like post position/ jockey strike rate/trainer strike rate/speed rating etc.. then compare numbers and look in relation to odds. Sorry if this is jumbled, but as much info or atleast a point to a book would be great :)


i do not know about betting exotics-others that do bet them can talk about favorites and exotic betting.
i will defer to what i read in one of tom ainslie's books a very long time ago, and verified over and over in my research.
mr ainslie said betting horses with odds below 3-1, to win is spinning your wheels.

[DigitalDownsJoe]

Is that true 100% of the time?

[acorn54]

Is that true 100% of the time?


to be honest, i have, in my 5 years of research with the data i have and the handicapping approaches i use only found short term periods, if memory serves me, where betting at below 3-1 odds shows an unimpressive profit for the risk.
over the long run of say a year of betting, i don't have any handicapping approaches where betting below 3-1 is profitable.

[DigitalDownsJoe]

I think no matter what odds horses you are betting, the key is picking the right races...Im not saying im gonna abandon ship and bet only favorites..Sometimes I wonder how a horse can even be the favorite. I just as a rule NEVER bet favorites unless i followed them up by a bomb or seen an anomoly in the probables.

[acorn54]

I think no matter what odds horses you are betting, the key is picking the right races...Im not saying im gonna abandon ship and bet only favorites..Sometimes I wonder how a horse can even be the favorite. I just as a rule NEVER bet favorites unless i followed them up by a bomb or seen an anomoly in the probables.

i don't think there are any absolutes in life except death and taxes. other people involved in thoroughbred wagering perhaps, even someone reading this thread does show long term profits with low odds horses.
i have been involved in wagering for almost 35 years and my experience and that of others i have met or whose opinions i have heard about, suggest that it is an uphill battle, and leaves little margin for error to bet low odds horses for profit, to win anyway.
i want to further qualify, in my research i have seen approaches to wagering on the horses that show a profit for an entire year or more, only to show losses further on, in time. i believe horseracing is ever-changing. to wit, the recent trend in shorter fields of horses, which makes one who seriously wants to stay out of the red, to constantly re-invent one's handicapping.

[therussmeister]

8/5 is bettable if you think it has a better than 38.5% chance of winning. The object of handicapping should be to determine the probability of various bets winning and thus calculating an acceptable minimum price.

The answer I gave is calculated by dividing 1 by the $1 return.

1/2.6 = 0.3846

[Capper Al]

Please dont rip me if this has been discussed before. I was wondering if someone could explain value on favorites based on size of field and odds. Is it possible that a 8/5 shot is actually a value bet? I have always had a hard time betting favorites, unless i get some decent paying exactas. I dont like risking more money to win less(in comparison to longer shots, i like betting 2nd or 3rd choices). I been doing this awhile and I just think that its time I get on the bandwagon and start betting favorites more. In doing so, I was hoping someone could explain how PP and fields size along with odds and comparison to other close choices factor in if you bet the favorite, go elsewhere, or just pass all together. Also do any of you do a few homerun plays on the card? Thanks to anyone who responds..

I am sure it is similar in how I choose my longer shots. I look at strike rate/pace/and i ask my self in relation to the favorite and others can this horse win 1 out of (whatever the odds are 5/1)5 times. Is there some type of equation maybe like post position/ jockey strike rate/trainer strike rate/speed rating etc.. then compare numbers and look in relation to odds. Sorry if this is jumbled, but as much info or atleast a point to a book would be great :)

Because of racing bad luck, favorites are more reliable in short fields. An 8/5 can be an overlay and is more likely to be an overlay than a 15/1 horse. Drop the "if these horses ran 5 or 100 races,how many times will the horse win?" stuff. There is only one race, today's race. You need to chart probabilities to your horses based on factors that you follow. A good reference for this is the book Winning at the Races by Quirin. Good Luck!

[LottaKash]

Me, I play favorites with regularity....

I use what I have termed the "VS." (versus) factor....I won't even hesitate to play even a 6/5er if the VS. factor is present....A VS. race is one that without a doubt, contains a bunch of nobody's in the race at hand...For one reason or another the field is consisted of mostly the sick, lame or lazy type of horses....

Sure, on paper they may look to be competitive enough, but in reality the favorite has such an edge on these misfits,for whatever reasons, that even a cheap price is still worth the risk, even for the long haul...

Of course, I am a very selective player, and my hit rate is very high on these types....So, I am always on the alert for the VS.-races...These keep me nicely in the game until I find the "crush" race, and until then, I will take profits (however modest) all year long on the F/VS. races....ez-money...Bread and Butter for me, actually...

Otherwise, taking a cheap price when the competition is keener, is almost pointless....To me, that would be spinning the wheels, as they say....

[davew]

Is there some type of equation maybe like post position/ jockey strike rate/trainer strike rate/speed rating etc.. then compare numbers and look in relation to odds.

There are many people who use databases, figuring in many variables to get a probability line to the race.


So their probability line gives a pretty good chance at winning if their numbers are good. They then bet on value horses, frequently in the top couple of race.

If the favorite is 8/5 and you have it figured at winning 50% of time, it is much better than one figured at 20% winning. The problem with internet betting now is many people have access to good database lines - and that 8/5 entering the gate with a 50% chance of winning frequently wins near half the time, but closes at 3/5 when all the money is pooled.

[DigitalDownsJoe]

On the flip side, I would say the line could move the other way, probably not as frequent though..Thank you all for some food for thought. I always try and handicap like i am setting the morning like odds. I do not look at ML odds, I try and make my own. I then look at the odds and usually find my value with my longshots. I been running cold as of late as favorites have been tearing me up. I thought maybe I should be looking that way more often. Alot of times these horses that win were my lowest ml odds, but i just find it so hard to bet a horse thats close to even money. I just need to become a better handicapper and go with my gut more often. I would say more times then not, when i go against my better judgement I lose. I like to bet Mountaineer, and I always get killed by D Parker. I hate to bet him. I hate to bet against him. LOL

[RXB]

On the flip side, I would say the line could move the other way, probably not as frequent though..

It's not even close. After I bet (which is always as the animals are entering the gate) I track the very late movement of odds on those horses. Here are the late odds directions of my 153 win bets in 2012 after I've made my play, grouped into three final odds categories:

7/2 or less: 21 down, 2 up, 17 even
4/1 - 9/1: 22 down, 21 up, 25 even
10/1 and up: 9 down, 29 up, 7 even

[mannyberrios]

Because of racing bad luck, favorites are more reliable in short fields. An 8/5 can be an overlay and is more likely to be an overlay than a 15/1 horse. Drop the "if these horses ran 5 or 100 races,how many times will the horse win?" stuff. There is only one race, today's race. You need to chart probabilities to your horses based on factors that you follow. A good reference for this is the book Winning at the Races by Quirin. Good Luck!good post!

[Robert Goren]

The unspoken truth about short fields is that the second and third favorites odds take a beating compared to full fields. A horse that would be 4-1 in a full field will be lucky to be 5/2 in a short field. A quick look at the charts of short fields will show a lot of races with 2 horses with odds of 8/5 or less.

[raybo]

Unless you have to have the "action", or you are a "grinder" playing many races per day looking for pennies on the dollar returns, or using low priced horses in exotics, to get better returns, what is the point of risking your money on horses that will offer small returns on investment?

I have never seen the logic in that approach, but then, I'm primarily an exotics player, where the individual odds of specific horses means less, regarding actual long term profits.

[Robert Fischer]

Unless you have to have the "action", or you are a "grinder" playing many races per day looking for pennies on the dollar returns, or using low priced horses in exotics, to get better returns, what is the point of risking your money on horses that will offer small returns on investment?

I have never seen the logic in that approach, but then, I'm primarily an exotics player, where the individual odds of specific horses means less, regarding actual long term profits.

pennies on the dollar favorites:

pros- with pennies on the dollar returns, you deal with a high strike rate. Assuming the player has an actual edge they can eliminate the risk of ruin, or shade it. The strike rate also makes things more consistent in the short term.

cons-
However, the pennies/Dollar players have a lower Edge on their wagers, a slower growth potential on bankroll, and their growth will hit a plateau because of pool size limits. They might make 2.5% of their bankroll everyday, but then they can't make more than $200 on an avg. day if they Plateau. Betting any more in the pools on the odds range decreases the payout too much.

in a dream world a player would have a mastery over every pool, but in reality specialists tend to do best in their preferred style of play.

[raybo]

pennies on the dollar favorites:

pros- with pennies on the dollar returns, you deal with a high strike rate. Assuming the player has an actual edge they can eliminate the risk of ruin, or shade it. The strike rate also makes things more consistent in the short term.

cons-
However, the pennies/Dollar players have a lower Edge on their wagers, a slower growth potential on bankroll, and their growth will hit a plateau because of pool size limits. They might make 2.5% of their bankroll everyday, but then they can't make more than $200 on an avg. day if they Plateau. Betting any more in the pools on the odds range decreases the payout too much.

in a dream world a player would have a mastery over every pool, but in reality specialists tend to do best in their preferred style of play.

pros- with pennies on the dollar returns, you deal with a high strike rate. Assuming the player has an actual edge they can eliminate the risk of ruin, or shade it. The strike rate also makes things more consistent in the short term.

I agree but the "assuming the player has an actual edge" is the kicker. How many actually have that?

cons-
However, the pennies/Dollar players have a lower Edge on their wagers, a slower growth potential on bankroll, and their growth will hit a plateau because of pool size limits. They might make 2.5% of their bankroll everyday, but then they can't make more than $200 on an avg. day if they Plateau. Betting any more in the pools on the odds range decreases the payout too much.

My point exactly, in order to make substantial profits this kind of player has got to play multiple tracks and probably needs a good rebate program also.