Calder-Belmont Saturday 9-29-2012

[MitchS]

Hey everyone,

I've uploaded the complete card for Calder on Saturday 9-29-2012. Its the regular sheets so I'm gonna get back in this thread and handicap a couple of races in between post times. Should be fun. Lots of good racing this weekend!

Have a good one,
Mitch

[MitchS]

:1:st- Calder

Here is an obvious example of a short field with a standout horse in the race. These are the kind of races that we will generally need to sit out. Or do we? The answer is sometimes which would depend on the completion of the race in question.

The #2 horse Blue Business appears to be the standout here. With a six horse field and the dominating factors this horse possesses, value for this horse is represented at around 8/5. If this horse goes off at 8/5 or greater it’s worth a bet. Are we going to get 8/5? Not a chance! Are time is probably more well spent looking for better races across the country during this time. Are you a bridge jumper? If so this may be a good shot, lol.

Sometimes in races like this, there are horses that are worth taking a shot with if the price is right. Are there any horses in the race like this? I believe there is with the #6 Monster Pomeroy. This horse has obviously been running at a lower class level and the connections are dismal but if you look on the P150 sheet you’ll see the P150 and CFT numbers are respectable compared to the #2 horse. This tells me that at the right price this horse is worth taking a shot with.

The question is at what price is this horse worth taking a shot with? With a short field like this on general dynamics and odds distribution alone we would need about 7/2 or so but since we have a dominating horse in this field were gong to need a bit more to make this horse worth taking a shot with. I’d say about 6/1 or so would make this horse worth taking a shot with.

How much of our total bankroll should we invest at taking a shot with this horse? Very little! If the #2 goes off at 8/5 a much higher percentage of bankroll can be invested as opposed to what you should invest on the #6 if we get the 8/5 range.

Lastly remember that if get our 6/1+ price on #6 and this horse does run out, that we've made a good wager no matter what the outcome! Be confident in the fact that we have made a good wager. If you continue to make good wagers at the right prices / odds and have wagered correctly using percentage of bankroll, in the long-run you should prevail.

I'll try to get back for another example in a larger field with a different race completion.

Mitch

[MitchS]

:1:st race went about as expected with our chalk winner. Bridge jumpers are happy in that one, lol... Our 30-1 long shot made it up for 3rd and we got a run for our money with the long-shot, but unfortunately with the top two favorites running 1-2, the show price sucked!

We scored a nice long-shot in the 4th with a $47.20 winner. Take a look at that race. That horse had the top B-90 and on the P-150 sheet the numbers were good as well. Lots of nice long-shot horses profile this pattern.

:10:th- Calder

I'm not gonna go into a long spiel about this one. Its a tough wide open race.

Contenders-

:8: - 7/2
:5: - 9/2
:2: - 7/1

:3: - :4: - :10: 9/1


Have a great weekend!
Mitch