First Step

[Maximillion]

Interested in others first steps in approaching a race..p&p,..software,..trip etc.

I read Pizzolas book, Handicapping Magic, right when it first came out..I had immediate success with some of the methods in the book.(long term not so much)

Now, ten years later I no longer use any of the "steps" or methods described in the book...except for the one chapter in the book I initially regarded as nonsense....the "soft focus" chapter.

My first step now is simply "looking" at the race(sometimes quickly)and trusting some of my first instincts..

Other first step ideas?

[thaskalos]

I don't believe in quickly scanning the PPs, because it can easily lead me astray. I start at the far left of the PPs, and work my way across.

The first thing I look at is the date column...because I want to see the racing regimen that the trainer is using with the horse. Then I look at the distance...because the wrong distance can be all the excuse that a horse needs for a bad performance, IMO. Then I look at class...and so on.

[turninforhome10]

First step is to read and understand the condtions of the race. IF you cannot do this do not go to step 2.
If you can ,then find all the horses that fit the condtions to a tee and highlight them. If it is a lifetime condtion espescially n2l consider the previous win.
If it is a OCln2x or above, see who is in for the tag and look at lifetime starts and wins and consider last win when evaluating form cycle.
Conditions, condtions, condtions.
Location, Location, Location.
Same idea.
:cool:

[eurocapper]

First step to me is checking if the fav is vulnerable or not. If not I pass the race.

[dkithore]

First step to me is checking if the fav is vulnerable or not. If not I pass the race.

pl. explain how you determine a false favorite? (If you don't mind.)

DK

[eurocapper]

pl. explain how you determine a false favorite? (If you don't mind.)

DK

Well I don't think I have positive ROI (actually looking at quarterhorses more) but I ignore the last race and look for average speed and pace. For possible injuries or other trouble recent average form and false class drops. Where and how the fav has won before and if the pace can beat it.

[Maximillion]

I don't believe in quickly scanning the PPs, because it can easily lead me astray. I start at the far left of the PPs, and work my way across.

The first thing I look at is the date column...because I want to see the racing regimen that the trainer is using with the horse. Then I look at the distance...because the wrong distance can be all the excuse that a horse needs for a bad performance, IMO. Then I look at class...and so on.


As far as handicapping the race I dont believe in quickly scanning the pps either....but as a first step I feel there should be something that catches my eye..as eurohandicapper mentioned Ill also look at the possible favorite(s).

If no horse(s) catch my eye as a possible improver, I feel my time is better spent going to the next race rather than trying to dig deeper... (which I will do if there appears to be an entry capable of improving)

[RaceBookJoe]

As far as handicapping the race I dont believe in quickly scanning the pps either....but as a first step I feel there should be something that catches my eye..as eurohandicapper mentioned Ill also look at the possible favorite(s).

If no horse(s) catch my eye as a possible improver, I feel my time is better spent going to the next race rather than trying to dig deeper... (which I will do if there appears to be an entry capable of improving)

First thing i do is go through each race and label each horses perceived running style, once done i put the form down for about 30 minutes before i dig into each race. What I am trying to do is get a mental picture of how the race could develop which might change due to how my numbers come up later in the handicapping process.

[Maximillion]

First thing i do is go through each race and label each horses perceived running style, once done i put the form down for about 30 minutes before i dig into each race. What I am trying to do is get a mental picture of how the race could develop which might change due to how my numbers come up later in the handicapping process.

Sounds like a unique approach....a mechanical first step and letting it "soak in" before going forward,not what I do ATM but always looking for ideas.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Conditions/Class and Form-Red pen circle wins,class,and running line,only running line if on different surface,underline blue pen competitive lines,notice days since race,frequency of races and times between,class up,down,jock change positive or negative.What's going on today.Look at age and record,if the horse fits this class profile.If it wins at this track or surface and distance.Blue pen underline workouts.Green pen for bullets or anything positive via age etc etc.

Speed/Pace-pretty self explanatory but I'd read Fotias' book Blinkers Off,Quinn's Figure handicapping,Litfin's 1st book,Beyer on Speed is good the first few chapters.Basically recognizing how the numbers relate to each other and races.

Probable Pace/Bias-no two races set up alike,each is a thing in itself,and all tracks have tendencies.Compare sets of running styles and look at result charts.

Raceday Prep Sheet-go through the tracks you like and list the races,your potential key horses and lists of contenders.Target the sequences of races you prefer if you bet that way.Have a gameplan going in.Things and selections can change later but know what to expect you are going to do.

Things aren't always perfect on a dime.I know that when I have completed that checklist I'm only at the mercy of odds or a wandering mind,good and bad!

[zerosky]

Conditions for me, nice to know the kind of horses I'm dealing with

[HUSKER55]

I have a list of auto throw-outs. If I get beat,...I get beat.

Then I make note of which horses benefit from the conditions of the race.

then i determine which horses i am going to bet.