Keystone aka Philly park aka Parx!

[atlasaxis]

MON 091712

I will be playing the two longest odds horses to win providing they are both 3-1 or greater at pt. If neither of the longest 2 are 3-1 or greater, no play.

R1 - Too
R2 - late
R3 - to
R4 - the party :(
R5 - 6, 8, 2
R6 - 3, 2, 9
R7 - 7, 1, 4
R8 - 4, 1, 9
R9 - 2, 9, 4
R10 - 2, 9, 1

Good luck to everyone today!

[Solid_Gold]

I totally agree with this concept except with a few changes. Let's say you pick 4 horses per race and require 4-1 odds. Most times 1 or 2 would be less than 4-1 but even if only one was you risk $2 to win $10 vs. $2 to win $8.
At 5-1 min. odds the most you would risk is probably $4 to win $12.

I guess I'm saying by increasing the odds requirement, you would have fewer bets and the ROI would increase with 4 choices rather than 3. Could catch a lot of $30+ winners going 4 deep.

JMO and I'm not busting balls here. Whatever works for you is #1.

[atlasaxis]

I totally agree with this concept except with a few changes. Let's say you pick 4 horses per race and require 4-1 odds. Most times 1 or 2 would be less than 4-1 but even if only one was you risk $2 to win $10 vs. $2 to win $8.

At 5-1 min. odds the most you would risk is probably $4 to win $12.



I guess I'm saying by increasing the odds requirement, you would have fewer bets and the ROI would increase with 4 choices rather than 3. Could catch a lot of $30+ winners going 4 deep.



JMO and I'm not busting balls here. Whatever works for you is #1.



WHAT????? Easy there SG!!!! At one time I did list 4 and risked suffering the wrath of the "anti-list 4" folk here!! ;) lol



I actually did at one time play 4 per race providing it was a contentious race and playing only those going off at a minimum of 4-1. At the time I tried that it just did not play out as I had hoped.



One of the nice things about this software is that is DOES pick some very nice prices in the top 3, as evidenced in my recent Saratoga selections. The only time when I consider my 4th horse is when 3 and 4 are tied. I then use the angle percentage points to separate the contenders and also make a decision based upon the odds of the 4th selection.



While my methodology for picking contenders is based upon Taulbot's pace calc, my wagering methodology is based upon a combo from Sartin, Mitchell and Cramer. Mitchell shares the results of a study asking handicappers to compare three methods of betting on 20-race groups using some professional computer software. They were asked to first use the computer’s betting line and bet all the overlays. Second, to bet the program’s top 2 choices regardless of odds; and third, to bet the two longest-odds horses of the computer’s top 3 choices. All three betting methods were profitable because the software was excellent. Betting the overlays outperformed betting the top 2 choices by a factor of 300%! Betting the two longest of the top 3 outperformed selection orientation by over 68%! Unfortunately, the one negative to the Taulbot software is that it does not create a true/fair odds line. Which leaves me with betting my 2 longest of the top 3. As suggested by Mitchell in WTS, my goal in betting on 2 horses per race is to have a win % of at least 60% at an ave. mutuel of $8. So far so good, and as I told someone else, my handicapping/wagering is for sure a work in progress and I gladly entertain all suggestions as I move forward. So thank you SG! I do appreciate your opinion.



Tom

[Solid_Gold]

Atlas, I think I might try this with 5-1 min. PT odds and use four selections in races with 8 or more entries and three selections with less? Cap it off with 2 picks max. same as you're doing.

[lamboguy]

my suggestion would be to exchange the criteria that you use to make the play, the odds, and replace it with only horses that come out of the stronger races. you can use up to 5 previous races to come up with that.

in other words instead of 3-1 odds, i would only play the horses that are coming out of the 3 strongest races.

[Maximillion]

my suggestion would be to exchange the criteria that you use to make the play, the odds, and replace it with only horses that come out of the stronger races. you can use up to 5 previous races to come up with that.

in other words instead of 3-1 odds, i would only play the horses that are coming out of the 3 strongest races.

Thats an interesting idea but I guess it would all come down to personal results....my own have been ugly with anything under 3-1.

Great job Atlasaxis.