Prolonged losing streaks

[trying2win]

--If one is looking for value, and doesn't like betting on short-priced horses, I know that losing streaks are inevitable. But, knowing that fact doesn't make them any easier to deal with.

--For example, if a handicapper finds out over a long perioid of plays that they average about 20% wins, in an ideal world you would win one, lose four in-a-row, win one again and lose four-in-a-row etc. Unfortunately, as most of us find out in actually practice, it's sometimes like... win one, lose four in-a-row, win three in-a-row, then lose ten-in-a-row etc. It's when it gets to streaks like losing fifteen to twenty in a row, that can really test your faith in your methods, not to mention your patience! Needless to say, a prolonged losing streak can really zap your confidence.

--So when the odd, prolonged losing streak hits you, and the "d's" start to affect you...i.e. "depressing", "discouraging" and" disheartening"....how do you deal with it? I'm not talking about using chemical means with intoxicants such as alcohol or barbituates to calm your nerves, or yelling at people close by to let off steam! I'm talking about using rational methods of dealing with these extended slumps.

-- I've been through the odd, prolonged losing streak lately myself. I found that by cutting back the amount of my bets to a minimum till I hit something half-decent helps. I even skipped betting some tracks entirely for a few days. Did some research, did a little fine-tuning here and there. Doing these things didn't stop the longer-than-usual losing streak any sooner, but I found it made some things a little easier to deal with in a few ways, until I finally hit a decent payoff.

----Anyone got any additional suggestions for other PA members, that we might find effective when the next extra-long losing streak comes along? (hopefully it won't be for awhile)


Thanks,

Trying2win

[Valuist]

I get more selective. If I know I'm slumping, I'll limit myself to a max of 2 bets in a day. I go to the OTB, bet, and get out. By not hanging around, and not betting on the Internet (sports only for that), I dont chase or am even tempted to chase. I've never had a problem chasing previous days losses but I admit there have been times when I've tried to "get out" late on a day when I've been getting killed. By betting and leaving w/out even watching any of the races, the "chase" is eliminated. There's no law that you have to watch your bets run.

[alysheba88]

Dont know what your bankroll is, but 15-20 losses in a row should not cause you to cut back your wagers.

[so.cal.fan]

Okay, years ago in one of the Horseracing magazines, possibly Turf and Sport Digest, a guy wrote a great article about this.
He referred to your subject, Trying2win, as The Job Complex....and it's equally destructive counterpart....The Messiah Complex.

The Job Complex sets in when you encounter one of these losing streaks. You can do nothing right, you start to believe the Universal Arrangement MUST be against YOU.
The Messiah Complex, surprisingly is just as destructive.....you feel you can "walk the infield lakes", you are a handicapping God.
With the JC.....you sink into a depression and paranoia that can knock you out of the game. With the MC....you WILL GET A JOLT FROM THE REAL HANDICAPPING GOD, that will knock you right out as well, all your self confidence.....destroyed in a flash! LOL

This concept really helped me, because I take neither seriously, if one or the other sets in.....I step back immediately and identify it...
"oh here I am with the Job Complex again". It disarms it.
:)

[pmd62ndst]

When I go through a long losing streak, one that ruins your self-confidence, I stop wagering altogether and take a break. During this break, I try to get a new handicapping book or even reread one I already have, just to get new ideas or refresh old ones. By the time I finish reading, it helps me want to get back into the thick of things again.

Besides, losing streaks "build character". It's good for your overall well-being. ;)

PMD

[so.cal.fan]

Yeah, I agree, PMD......they do keep you "humble".

[trying2win]

--Hey, great thoughts and ideas so far on how to deal with prolonged losing streaks! Thanks everyone. Some ideas suggested here that I never thought of before.

--Just thought of this one. I usually bet the longer-priced horses which are more prone to longer losing streaks. Maybe I should add a higher win percentage method to my portfolio, that would usually be in a lower-odds range, would provide the odd spot play and increase the likelihood of cashing a few more tickets. Might help psychologically.

--Hmmm, maybe it might help to read some good joke books during losing streaks at the track. That's one time in life when we need a good laugh!

--It seems no matter how smart we get at the handicapping game, now and then we all hit the proverbial "brick wall"...i.e. no matter what you do at times, nothing goes right at the racetrack. Sometimes during these extra-long slumps, you start to wonder if you'll ever cash a ticket again!

--Then on the bright side, there are times at the racetrack when everything seems to go your way. Enjoy those winning streaks while they last.

--I know it's getting to be a cliche, but the losing streaks always last longer than the winning streaks. Wish it wasn't so!

Trying2win

[trying2win]

--I goofed when I said that the losing streaks always last longer than the winning streaks. I should have said...percentage-wise over the long run, the losing streaks always last longer than the winning streaks.

Trying2win

[shanta]

this might sound crazy at first but i usually find tracks that i have been winning at regularly suddenly go "ice cold". and i do mean ice cold! On the opposite side is revisiting a track after laying off a few weeks and finding you start winning right away. I wish i had some kinda explanation for this but i don't. This happens over and over again at tracks i play. So as to avoiding or dealing with long losing streaks i try to pay attention to this "cycle" at tracks and stop wagering there for a while.

richie

[trying2win]

Originally posted by shanta
this might sound crazy at first but i usually find tracks that i have been winning at regularly suddenly go "ice cold". and i do mean ice cold! On the opposite side is revisiting a track after laying off a few weeks and finding you start winning right away. I wish i had some kinda explanation for this but i don't. This happens over and over again at tracks i play. So as to avoiding or dealing with long losing streaks i try to pay attention to this "cycle" at tracks and stop wagering there for a while.

richie

Shanta,

--I can relate to that business of doing fine at a track, then all of a sudden going cold in your betting there. That happened awhile ago at Mountaineer Park. Took some time off from betting there, but went back. I'm glad I returned. Same thing with Santa Anita this meet...my fortunes there have been ice cold! So, as a result, I'm a little reluctant to bet at SA lately and have skipped some days at that place.

--Like you say, it's hard to explain why some of these bizarre things happen at some tracks. I call it "One of the mysteries of the racetrack!".

--I read a fascinating article sometime ago along similar lines. It was about the adventures of Andy Beyer when he was on a losing streak at one time. Andy mentioned something to the effect that "Some of things that were happening out at the racetrack, were bordering on the occult!" I think some of us could say something similar when we hit an extended losing streak too.

Trying2win

[lousycapperII]

THAT'S WHAT MY GRAMPA SEZ...
His vocation has been handicapping the horses since just after WWII. You must have enough operating capital, including all of your day to day expenses, to tide you over whenever there is a longer than expected losing streak. He has had many high 20's losses in a row. It doesn't phase him because he knows what his return on invested capital will be at the end of the year. He only wagers 2% of his operating capital. He keeps detailed records and he is extremely successful at this business. I hope to follow in his footsteps after I finish high school & college.

-LCII

[PaceAdvantage]

yawn......can't you come up with a new schtick?

And btw, 2% is probably a bit too high....it should more likely be .5-1% IMO....

[dav4463]

Take a break and relax at the track. Pick up a program and just scan the races without seriously handicapping. Take $10 or $20 and try to hit some 3 race show parlays, just to get the feel of cashing some tickets again .....and if you get on a roll, you might even make a little money !

[lousycapperII]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
yawn......can't you come up with a new schtick?

And btw, 2% is probably a bit too high....it should more likely be .5-1% IMO....

:D How about...Gramma sez Grampa told her? :D

Yes, 1/2% to 1% would be safer.

[headhawg]

Here it is! The solution to all of your handicapping problems!

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=2782383520&category=429

LOL

HH

[lousycapperII]

Originally posted by headhawg
Here it is! The solution to all of your handicapping problems!

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=2782383520&category=429

LOL

HH

:D Golly, gee, and it's less than $15.00 so far. Another slicker, quicker, get rich quick, nag picker. Tell us when you make your first million! Heh, heh! :D

-LCII

[Show Me the Wire]

A better solution would be open an otb in one of the Dakotas.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[so.cal.fan]

Quintessential guru:

Shhhhhh........you just gave out "THE SECRET" to winning at the races! LOL

[Show Me the Wire]

so.cal.fan:

I have others too, that I am not planning to divulge.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

[kenwoodallpromos]

He's just a CD seller!

[freeneasy]

he's got it on a 5 day listing with 2 days left to go and after 3 suicidal days of cutthroat bidding he's taken in 3 whole bids with the high bid being the topper-stopper at $11. iam just waiting for the last minute to sneak in with my bid. catch em looking around and lay the nose on em at the wire. know what i mean