PDA

View Full Version : backward handicpping


Robert Goren
09-13-2012, 01:40 PM
since I am somewhat limited in what I can do on the net, I have spent some time thinking about picking winners. I know a few of you picture in your mind from start to finish on how the race is going to be run. I was wondering if any of you do it from finish to start. you pick a horse as the winner then run the race backward to the start. then you repeat with a different horse. It seemed like a way to get a different view of the race and maybe a way to get a different choice from the crowd. I have never seen anyone discuss this method. Does anyone have any thoughts on it.

Robert Fischer
09-13-2012, 01:59 PM
That's interesting.

I could attempt something like that but I would have to use the horse's early running style to help.

example :7: horse winning - working backwards... I "cheat" and see that the :7: has the best early pace. So I'm going to assume as I work "backwards" that the :7: had the lead going into the stretch. Maybe he was on the inside - because he has the best early pace.
So now if it's a close race, and he isn't the heavy favorite, I assume that speed "held"(unless this horse "freaked", how else did this longshot speed hold on to the lead...).
So now I want to look at the other speed, particularly the favorites with speed. Perhaps these other speeds held well too.
Then try to work backwards.

wouldn't be the worst way to look at exactas or trifectas :confused:

lamboguy
09-13-2012, 02:01 PM
good to have you back today Robert. i hope you are feeling better and pick a lot of winners

Tom
09-13-2012, 02:13 PM
Kind of....I look at each horse and key in on how the ran when they won or finished very close, then look at today's race to see if they could do it again, like if a horse only wins with a clear lead, and there is a lot of speed today, he can't. Or a closer needs a fast pace and there is a lone front runner today.

maddog42
09-13-2012, 02:20 PM
Robert, if I could visualize the race from finish backwards, I wouldn't have to
worry about money anymore. Sorry couldn't help it.

Seriously I'm having a hard time getting my mind around this concept. I often start from a second call stand point. Where is the horse when it runs against
a 45.2 in one of its better races? 2 back, on the lead? This has worked very well for me. Kind of a Bradshaw type pace visualization. Can it close on this type of pace or will it be too far back? I of course knock a few clicks (penalize)off the finish for a faster than previous pace. I guess this is pretty conventional.

This is as close as I ever get from starting at the finish and going backwards.

eurocapper
09-13-2012, 02:29 PM
I've been looking at some such races. What I hate most is the stalker, unpredictable. Duels not always happening when one would imagine it. Jockey (and trainer instructions) probably has some effect on the style. Stalker maybe the most efficient style, doesn't waste energy early or risk coming too late, maybe a horse worth tracking.

RaceBookJoe
09-13-2012, 03:01 PM
since I am somewhat limited in what I can do on the net, I have spent some time thinking about picking winners. I know a few of you picture in your mind from start to finish on how the race is going to be run. I was wondering if any of you do it from finish to start. you pick a horse as the winner then run the race backward to the start. then you repeat with a different horse. It seemed like a way to get a different view of the race and maybe a way to get a different choice from the crowd. I have never seen anyone discuss this method. Does anyone have any thoughts on it.

Glad you are back posting. Not sure that i do what you are asking, but the closest i come to that is in routes. I usually start my route handicapping by looking at the closing fractions of each horse, then i go back and see if the horse/horses will actually be close enough for those fractions to be meaningful...can they win, or can they at best hit the backholes. In sprints in start at the gate and work my way to the wire.

Greyfox
09-13-2012, 03:10 PM
since I am somewhat limited in what I can do on the net, I have spent some time thinking about picking winners. I know a few of you picture in your mind from start to finish on how the race is going to be run. I was wondering if any of you do it from finish to start. you pick a horse as the winner then run the race backward to the start..

Whatever works , use it.

That idea would never work for me.

I want to know who sets the pace and who if any can overcome it.

speed
09-13-2012, 05:25 PM
Never thought of this. Wonder if playing an old 45 record backwards at the same time might help. :)
I have trouble enough with saying the alphabet backwards.

rubicon55
09-13-2012, 06:18 PM
Whatever works , use it.

That idea would never work for me.

I want to know who sets the pace and who if any can overcome it.

I agree with this thought, calculating pace deceleration rate is tricky enough while going in forward motion lest alone in the reverse.

horses4courses
09-13-2012, 08:19 PM
Nice to see you back, RG.
Hope your health is improving.

The only backwards handicapping I do is the type that costs me money.

Good luck!

Show Me the Wire
09-13-2012, 08:43 PM
I do it often. I estimate the final time of the race, look at my contenders and picture the scenario that would result in each particular contender winning.

acorn54
09-13-2012, 09:02 PM
unfortunately the pace scenario is only a guess based on the past. everyone and his grandmother are seeing the same thing.
in the actual unfolding of the race no one knows, how many times have you seen one jock able to post slow early fractions while the other jocks just let him?
could anyone have forseen this? whom the gods wanted to make mad, they first let him see the future.

Show Me the Wire
09-13-2012, 09:11 PM
Absolutely true acorn54.

traynor
09-13-2012, 11:00 PM
The "reverse scenario" is taught in just about every business school in the country. There is no reason why it could not be adapted for thoroughbred races.

In essence, "this horse just won--how did it happen?" That is, how would the race have to have unfolded for that particular horse to win? The early speed duel never happened, the lone speed set a slow pace, and this horse passed it in the stretch to win (or whatever). It is just a different way of looking at "the future" as if it has already happened, and you are describing the details of how it happened.

It might sound flaky, but there are quite a few business analysts who swear by it as a predictive model.