To re-handicap or not.

[porchy44]

You handicapped a race in the morning before scratches,
and like the #5 horse in a 12 horse field.
Later you find out the 1, 7, 9 are scratched.

a)You re-handicap the race because the pace scenario may have changed, etc.
b) You reason that if you were going to bet the horse in a 12 horse field you still
should like him in a 9 horse field.
c) There is no longer "value" on him and pass the race.
d) You might have now landed on another horse to bet.

[DJofSD]

Are these questions or are you giving us your reasons for rehandicapping post changes?

[porchy44]

These are all the scenario's I can think of at the moment. I have done all of the above sometime in the past. Now I tend to pass the race .

[Itamaraca]

try handicapping a few minutes before the race goes off. then you don't have all these deep methodological/philosophical issues to deal with

[DRIVEWAY]

You handicapped a race in the morning before scratches,
and like the #5 horse in a 12 horse field.
Later you find out the 1, 7, 9 are scratched.

a)You re-handicap the race because the pace scenario may have changed, etc.
b) You reason that if you were going to bet the horse in a 12 horse field you still
should like him in a 9 horse field.
c) There is no longer "value" on him and pass the race.
d) You might have now landed on another horse to bet.

I'll go with A and C above.

[SansuiSC]

Everythings a situation. Everything you listed are reasons to look at the race again. You may find value you did not see before. When in doubt pass if you cant justify a wager.

[zerosky]

if the race is 'off' the turf then I throw in the cards on that one.
if it's just scratches I stick with original choice.

[Overlay]

I would re-calculate my full-field fair-odds line (since the removal of some of the original horses may have significantly changed the winning chances of the remaining horses in relation to the rest of the reduced field), and wager according to which horses are now offering value in comparison to the new line.

[RaceBookJoe]

I will only re-handicap if the expected pace setup has changed or if my selection is scratched. If i have done my homework correct, its a quick fix. Sometimes it makes a race non-playable for me, other times it turns what was non-playable into a prime bet. A few weeks back, i had a race at Monmouth where i couldnt separate the 2 E horses, and the rest of the field looked weak. One of the E's was scratched making it a Lone E race which ended up paying a fair price considering how easy the race looked after the scratch. MTO changes or off-turf races, i usually start from scratch though.

[HUSKER55]

I am working on a system that returns an odds line. It is getting there. Maybe next year. When a horse is scratched for whatever reason the program re-calculates the odds. The make-up of the race has changed.

If a punter does not have time to rehandicap then pass the race.


JMHO and i'm probably wrong.

[Stillriledup]

You handicapped a race in the morning before scratches,
and like the #5 horse in a 12 horse field.
Later you find out the 1, 7, 9 are scratched.

a)You re-handicap the race because the pace scenario may have changed, etc.
b) You reason that if you were going to bet the horse in a 12 horse field you still
should like him in a 9 horse field.
c) There is no longer "value" on him and pass the race.
d) You might have now landed on another horse to bet.

I won't 'like' someone the night before because i wont know his approximate price until close to post time. I try and just 'rate' the entire field and then i have to wait until i see prices.

[senortout]

Please, just stick with your original selection...It's obvious that they are 'dodging' your horse anyway!

[luvalab]

As I handicap each race I make notes on my top horses and why I like them. If the scratches appear to change the complexion of the race, then I will re-handicap or just not play the race.