NFL Picks -- Week 1

[headhawg]

I didn't want to hijack hugh's thread so I started this one. Feel free to post your NFL picks here.

I didn't like too much this week.

Car -2.5
GB -4.5
SD +1

[Robert Fischer]

Seattle -2.5 (vs. Arizona)

Play of the week.

If everything goes wrong for Seattle they may cover the spread.

If things go as they should the game will be over by the 3rd quarter, and the Arizona defensive front will be exhausted. Seattle can then win by 5-10pts, or run up the score more.

[pandy]

Copied from my website.

Note: Last season I picked a few games a week (Best Bets) and every post season game and hit a remarkable 61% against the spread. This year I'll make a pick in each game, but also give my Best Bets. Keep in mind, it's almost impossible to go over 60% against the spread when you pick each game: I'll give it my best shot but the Best Bets (***) should win at a higher percentage.*

Wednesday, September 5

Giants - 3.5 over Cowboys in New Jersey
The Cowboys have done a lot of work on their offensive line, and the first time they all play together is tonight against some of the most feared pass rushers in the NFL. The Giants passing game should be outstanding again this yea. Giants to cover at home.*

***indicates a Best Bet

Sunday, September 9

NFL PICKS:*

Best Bets: Bears -10, Bills + 2 1/2, Eagles - 9 1/2.*

Colts at Bears, Pandy's pick, Bears -10***. Colts rookie QB gets tough spot to debut against a top defense on the road. Cutler is back and he is 14 and 5 as QB for the Bears.*The Bears also added a top receiver, Brandon Marshall, who used to play with Cutler on another team.*

Bills at Jets, Pandy's pick, Bills + 2 1/2***. Jets offense failed to score a touchdown in preseason and they have to prove that they can score with a two quarterback system.*Buffalo improved their defensive line in the off season and it could be one of the best in football.*

Patriots at Titans, Pandy's pick, Patriots - 4 1/2. Line opened at 6 1/2 and movement is suspicious but the Patriot's are tough to bet against.

Redskins at Saints, Pandy's pick, Saints -9. Redskins go with their talented rookie QB but Saints offense is tough to stop in the dome.*

Falcons at Chiefs, Pandy's pick, Chiefs + 2 1/2. Chiefs suffered a lot of injuries last year but they have a fine young defense and they can be tough at home .

Seahawks at Cardinals, Pandy's pick, Seahawks -1. Seattle starts a rookie QB but he had a hot preseason and the Cardinals QB Skelton is no star. Seattle looked good at times last year and they are well coached, although they play much better at home.*

Steelers at Broncos, Pandy's pick, Broncos -1. Denver has added quite a bit of offensive firepower in the offseason including Peyton Manning, who looked sharp from clips I saw. His arm strength looked strong to me. Denver beat the Steelers in the playoffs, showing a strong pass rush and overall defensive effort, and they should be a better team this year.*The Steelers often have trouble on the offensive line early in the year and one of their starters is out today.*

Jaguars at Vikings, Pandy's pick Jaguars + 3 1/2. Jaguars have a tremendous defense and both of these teams struggled offensively last year. Vikings star running back Peterson is coming back from major knee surgery and their fastest wide receiver is suspended.*

Dolphins at Texans, Pandy's pick Texans - 12 1/2. This is a big line but the Texans are an outstanding team and a top Super Bowl prospect this year. Miami is rebuilding and they have had offensive troubles for years.*

Rams at Lions, Pandy's pick, Lions -9. Lions high powered passing attack and good pass rush go against a Rams team that struggled last year. Rams brought in a new coach, let's see what happens.*

Eagles at Browns, Pandy's Pick, Eagles - 9 1/2*** over Browns. Eagles clearly have more talent. Browns have some defense but they have struggled to score points for several years now and they go with a new quarterback here. They drafted a talented runner so they will probably try to run the ball a lot. Eagles a big flop last year, so they will look to start the season fast.*Big key to this game is the Eagles pass rush against rookie quarterback and a questionable Browns offensive line.*

49ers at Packers, Pandy's Pick, Packers -5. This is a good matchup. The 49ers have one of the league's best defenses and the Packers have a potent offense. Green Bay drafted some defensive players and a few rookies will start on defense in this game. The 49ers added two wide receivers, Mario Manningham and Randy Moss. It may take time for 49ers to get the proper rhythm with new receivers, so I'll go with the Packers but this is a good one and could be close.*

Pathers at Bucs, Pandy's Pick, Carolina Panthers +1 over Tampa.*Carolina beat the Bucs twice last year and both wins were easy.*

Monday, September 10

Bengals at Ravens, Pandy's Pick, Ravens -7.
Chargers at Raiders, Pandy's Pick, Raiders +1.

[thaskalos]

I have created a little football handicapping "system", the picks of which I plan to post on this board. But, because I rely on relevant stats...I have to wait until the 5th week of the season before I can develop any sort of confidence in my opinions.

I would like to know how those bettors who start betting from the very beginning of the season do their handicapping.

Do they just assume that the teams will start again from where they left off last year?

[lamboguy]

i think that football picking is the same as horse racing. you need to be better than the morning line maker to win. when you accept 2-1 on horses when the horse should be 5-2, you will lose.. you have to find the horse that is paying 3-1 for a 5-2 shot to get the money. the same in football, you need to find the team where the line is wrong to start out with, or the betting public has made the line wrong to win. on top of that the line has to be wrong enough to overcome the juice that you have to lay to make the bet.

[Rookies]

Jets -7.5 v.s. Bills. Line moving on up, although these are competitive teams. Both have good- very good Ds. Both QBs are questionable, but i think Fitz will come through. I've tabbed the Bills to make the Playoffs this year for the first time in a decade, so this is an important match in that regard. If Stevie has his Johnston intact, the Bills will win outright.

Texans -12 v.s. Fish. One is a team that could win the Super Bowl, the other is Trailer Trash wrestling with bottom feeders like the Brownies. Was there ever a more dysfunctional team on 'Hard Knocks'? Houston EASY.

GB -5 v.s. S.F. Great game and I believe the team that will play the Texans in the SB- San Fran has a great shot at the upset. Closely fought.

Patsies -5.5 v.s. Titans. Beginning of the end of the Brady era. Look for them to slide a bit this year. They should beat the Bills out for the AFCE, but the Titans will keep this one close.

[Valuist]

Indy/Chicago OVER 43 this opened at 41 and has been bet up. Bears vastly improved in red zone now w/2 big WRs and addition of RB Bush. Their D is aging and suspect top pick Luck will be able to generate a few scores. I see a 31-21 type game.

Miami/HOUSTON UNDER 41 1/2---Miami had 3rd best run defense in NFL and solid pass D. Offensively they are going uphill w/rookie QB Tannenhill. With two top Texan weapons ailing, just don't see them piling on many points. I see a 20-3 type game ending well below the total.

CLEVE +9.5---it is an ugly pick but really like home dogs in non-conference games. Philly is a Jeckyl & Hyde team, capable of beating anybody but also letting the cellar dwellars hang around.

Washington +8--I don't like the Saints laying more than a TD. Their D is too bad, no real head coach, and I think Griffin isn't going to be intimidated.

[Valuist]

Jets -7.5 v.s. Bills. Line moving on up, although these are competitive teams. Both have good- very good Ds. Both QBs are questionable, but i think Fitz will come through. I've tabbed thye Bills to make the Playoffs this year for the first time in a decade, so this is an important match in that regard. If Stevie has his Johnston intact, the Bills will win outright.

Texans -12 v.s. Fish. One is a team that could win the Super Bowl, the other is Trailer Trash wrestling with bottom feeders like the Brownies. Was there ever a more dysfunctional team on 'Hard Knocks'? Houston EASY.

GB -5 v.s. S.F. Great game and I believe the team that will play the Texans in the SB- San Fran has a great shot at the upset. Closely fought.

Patsies -5.5 v.s. Titans. Beginning of the end of the Brady era. Look for them to slide a bit this year. They should beat the Bills out for the AFCE, but the Titans will keep this one close.

Jets -7.5? Where are you seeing that line? Bookmaker has it at 3.

[Rookies]

Jets -7.5? Where are you seeing that line? Bookmaker has it at 3.

Correct. I was in a hurry this morning to get out to the bar & I grabbed 2 News oulets ( NY Times -5 and my local -7.5), but they aren't correct.

Checked the line with 2 of my websites and the number is -3.

Still on them- outright. Johnson is playing.

[Robert Fischer]

I have created a little football handicapping "system", the picks of which I plan to post on this board. But, because I rely on relevant stats...I have to wait until the 5th week of the season before I can develop any sort of confidence in my opinions.

I would like to know how those bettors who start betting from the very beginning of the season do their handicapping.

Do they just assume that the teams will start again from where they left off last year?

a lot of the teams and coaches are intact and have reliable form.

With my seattle pick, was able to observe changes and be more confident than the public. This isn't going to work with a statistical approach (until stats accumulate).

[pandy]

I have created a little football handicapping "system", the picks of which I plan to post on this board. But, because I rely on relevant stats...I have to wait until the 5th week of the season before I can develop any sort of confidence in my opinions.

I would like to know how those bettors who start betting from the very beginning of the season do their handicapping.

Do they just assume that the teams will start again from where they left off last year?

The beginning of the season can be very easy or very tough. Last year several bad teams improved sharply and there were lots of early season upsets. But there have been years where the favorites won over 60% for the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season because the teams didn't change much. Overall though I'd say that it gets easier to pick after a few weeks.

[cj]

I'd love to hear the explanation of why Cleveland didn't go for 2 when up 15-10 in the 4Q.

Nice week valuist.

[Valuist]

I'd love to hear the explanation of why Cleveland didn't go for 2 when up 15-10 in the 4Q.

Nice week valuist.

Thx. Week 1 usually isn't the easiest of weeks. I'll take the 4-0.

[Marshall Bennett]

I'd love to hear the explanation of why Cleveland didn't go for 2 when up 15-10 in the 4Q.

Nice week valuist.
Perhaps because 2 field goals would beat them if they didn't convert. That's all I can imagine.
If there were only a minute or so left in the game I'd say it was completely dumb.

[Marshall Bennett]

The first week has killed me in recent years. This year I let week 1 be my bye week betting.

[headhawg]

Car -2.5
GB -4.5
SD +1SF really looked tough. Rough start to the season. I'm usually better in the early going than this.

This week: 1-2
Season-to-date: 1-2