andtheyreoff
09-07-2012, 11:22 PM
Unlike last year, where I played every day but one and just missed showing a profit, I won't be playing every race, but will offer a few opinions a day if I can.
Opening Day
Race 1- MSW 2 1M
Wide open maiden field to kick off the year, and I will take :1: Orb. In his debut, he had a terrible break, but managed to rerally to miss by only 1 1/4 lengths, after being as much as 14 lengths off the pace. His 88 brisnet figure is the second best in the field, and I think that with a clean break, that will improve drastically.
:5: Bad Hombre is also worth a look if Orb gets overbet (which is possible)
Race 4- Affliate Stakes 3+ 6F
Another wide open field of sprinters here, and I'm landing on :2: Sean Avery. Yes, he hasn't raced in over a year, but last year, he rattled off 2 110 brisnet figures, plus has run 107 and 104 in the past. If he can get those numbers again, he should win, and there's good reason to believe he will. Out of his last 10 workouts, 6 were the best at the distance for the day, and 2 more were in the top 3. Not to mention Allen Iwinski is hitting at a sharp 21% with horses off long layoffs.
:5: Royal Currier also an interesting candidate if the price is right.
Sunday 9/9
Race 1- MSW 2(F) 1M
Taking a longshot to kick off the program in :1: Girl Code. She fits a similar profile to Orb- first time out, closed slowly, but wound up just missing, losing by just about 2 lengths. That race was only at 5 1/2F, too; it'll be interesting to see how she does at 1M. At 8/1, she is a very interesting prospect.
Race 2- Meadow Star Stakes 2(F) 1M
On paper, :2: Dreaming of Julia looks infallible, coming off a 10 1/2 length score in her debut at the Spa on August 6. However, running here, instead of the far more valuable Spinaway last Sunday, raises some red flags. What's more, she will be absolutely unbettable at her odds.
With that, I'll take :4: Fully Living. She won her debut pretty nicely over this strip on May 31, did run two lackluster races at Saratoga, but those were against better than what she will face here. What's more, her speed figures (87, 88, 91 on brisnet) make her among the leading candidates in the field. To top it off, she will be a far better price than Dreaming of Julia.
Race 6- John Hettinger 3+(F)(NY) 1 1/8M [T]
The fascinating rivalry between the :3: Hessonite and the :7: Gitchee Goomie gets renewed here, and I will take Hessonite's side here. She's won the last 2 stakes for female NY bred turfers, doing so in solid fashion. She also owns a 5-2-2-0 record over Belmont turf, with 2 of those losses coming this year, one against Gitchee Goomie where she just missed, and another off a 6 month layoff.
Race 8- Ashley T. Cole 3+(NY) 1 1/8M [T]
Going with :1: Street Game here. This is a horse that, following his Hill Prince win in which he ran every quarter faster than the last one, I thought would be the next great turf horse. His 5th place in the Virginia Derby destroyed that idea, however. Still, I think his post 1, plus his early speed, makes him a legitimate threat to get loose on the lead and not look back, if Ramon chooses to use it.
Also think :4: Lubash has a great shot.
To recap:
Saturday-
Race 1- :1: Orb
Race 4- :2: Sean Avery
Sunday-
Race 1- :1: Girl Code
Race 2- :4: Fully Living
Race 6- :3: Hessonite
Race 8- :1: Street Game
GL
Opening Day
Race 1- MSW 2 1M
Wide open maiden field to kick off the year, and I will take :1: Orb. In his debut, he had a terrible break, but managed to rerally to miss by only 1 1/4 lengths, after being as much as 14 lengths off the pace. His 88 brisnet figure is the second best in the field, and I think that with a clean break, that will improve drastically.
:5: Bad Hombre is also worth a look if Orb gets overbet (which is possible)
Race 4- Affliate Stakes 3+ 6F
Another wide open field of sprinters here, and I'm landing on :2: Sean Avery. Yes, he hasn't raced in over a year, but last year, he rattled off 2 110 brisnet figures, plus has run 107 and 104 in the past. If he can get those numbers again, he should win, and there's good reason to believe he will. Out of his last 10 workouts, 6 were the best at the distance for the day, and 2 more were in the top 3. Not to mention Allen Iwinski is hitting at a sharp 21% with horses off long layoffs.
:5: Royal Currier also an interesting candidate if the price is right.
Sunday 9/9
Race 1- MSW 2(F) 1M
Taking a longshot to kick off the program in :1: Girl Code. She fits a similar profile to Orb- first time out, closed slowly, but wound up just missing, losing by just about 2 lengths. That race was only at 5 1/2F, too; it'll be interesting to see how she does at 1M. At 8/1, she is a very interesting prospect.
Race 2- Meadow Star Stakes 2(F) 1M
On paper, :2: Dreaming of Julia looks infallible, coming off a 10 1/2 length score in her debut at the Spa on August 6. However, running here, instead of the far more valuable Spinaway last Sunday, raises some red flags. What's more, she will be absolutely unbettable at her odds.
With that, I'll take :4: Fully Living. She won her debut pretty nicely over this strip on May 31, did run two lackluster races at Saratoga, but those were against better than what she will face here. What's more, her speed figures (87, 88, 91 on brisnet) make her among the leading candidates in the field. To top it off, she will be a far better price than Dreaming of Julia.
Race 6- John Hettinger 3+(F)(NY) 1 1/8M [T]
The fascinating rivalry between the :3: Hessonite and the :7: Gitchee Goomie gets renewed here, and I will take Hessonite's side here. She's won the last 2 stakes for female NY bred turfers, doing so in solid fashion. She also owns a 5-2-2-0 record over Belmont turf, with 2 of those losses coming this year, one against Gitchee Goomie where she just missed, and another off a 6 month layoff.
Race 8- Ashley T. Cole 3+(NY) 1 1/8M [T]
Going with :1: Street Game here. This is a horse that, following his Hill Prince win in which he ran every quarter faster than the last one, I thought would be the next great turf horse. His 5th place in the Virginia Derby destroyed that idea, however. Still, I think his post 1, plus his early speed, makes him a legitimate threat to get loose on the lead and not look back, if Ramon chooses to use it.
Also think :4: Lubash has a great shot.
To recap:
Saturday-
Race 1- :1: Orb
Race 4- :2: Sean Avery
Sunday-
Race 1- :1: Girl Code
Race 2- :4: Fully Living
Race 6- :3: Hessonite
Race 8- :1: Street Game
GL