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hugh
09-07-2012, 03:49 PM
Same deal as the NFL. Going against the big public favorites. Always will get a few points betting ATP which over the long run makes for a profitable season. Will post my plays and results each week. :ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

hugh
09-07-2012, 03:58 PM
9/8
Kent +7
Idaho +17 $$$$$
Wake Forest +10.5
Army +6.5
UCLA +5 $$$$$$
Memphis +23
Oregon State +6.5
(Strange line move and game with Ok State/ vs.Arizona... 87% of the bets are on Oklahoma State but the line has from +13.5 to +10.5)
Let's do This.:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

hugh
09-07-2012, 05:49 PM
9/8 Smart money plays... The Smart Money strategy is triggered whenever the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages.
Smart Money Plays:
Missouri +2
Central Mich +19.5
Oregon State +6.5
Arizona +10.5
Western Kentucky +37.5

With these and the Against the Public picks there are alot of games to choose from. I'm not going to play all of these, but if I do decide to play a game that I'm watching I'll be on the right side. :cool:

hugh
09-09-2012, 03:14 PM
9/8
Kent +7
Idaho +17 $$$$$ win
Wake Forest +10.5 straight up win
Army +6.5
UCLA +5 $$$$$$ straight up win
Memphis +23 win
Oregon State +6.5 straight up win
(Strange line move and game with Ok State/ vs.Arizona... 87% of the bets are on Oklahoma State but the line has from +13.5 to +10.5) straight up win
Let's do This.:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:
WEEK TWO (one) agianst the public totals.... 6-2

Smart Money Plays NCAA Pigskin
Missouri +2
Central Mich +19.5
Oregon State +6.5 win
Arizona +10.5 straight up win
Western Kentucky +37.5 win
Smart Money Plays Results 3-2

LET'S KEEP IT GOING!!!
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

hugh
09-11-2012, 04:54 PM
SCHOOL (plus) POINTS PUBLIC % (on opposing team)
BC +2.5 76%
Army 3 94%
SMU 13 84%
Pitt 10 87%
Stanford 7.5 83%
Cal 17 81%
Utah 4.5 80%
Miami (OH) 20.5 87%
Notre Dame 6 74%
Houston 17 83%
N. Texas 28.5 90%
W. Kentucky 7 79%

Most of the time betting on teams like this hurts. It's supposed to. These are the teams that will burn 80% of the betting public and make the papers the next day.
My early picks: Stanford, Utah, Notre Dame, Houston :)

hugh
09-12-2012, 03:13 PM
Big time Leans. I always like doing these against the public picks on nationally televised games. Here are a couple ATP picks I really dig.
Cal +17
Miami (OH) +21 (on nbcsn)
Navy +5.5
Arkansas +21
For all you west coasters who get the PAc-12 network I see no problem taking Houston +17 against UCLA. Bruins have a freshman quarterback who may cool off a bit. Everybody and his brother will be on UCLA. The BIGGEST play of the week for me.

I would throw in Stanford +8 but I just hated the way they played against San Jose state. So a no play for me.
Also Notre Dame +6 is a no go based on the amount of late public money that always hits.
Good luck everyone.

hugh
09-13-2012, 03:04 PM
9/15 official NCAA Football Picks (all dogs so we might get more points as game time draws near)
CAL +17
Stanford +9
Miami (OH) +21 (.5)
Houston +17
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

hugh
09-19-2012, 05:06 PM
Totals thus far: 8-4
Only :1: play this week. Auburn +20.5 at LSU. Big game on TV. Auburn covers EASY in a tight game.
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

hugh
09-21-2012, 06:41 PM
Going to add one play this week:
Colorado +20 (vs. Washington State)
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

hugh
09-24-2012, 06:14 PM
Two Wins in two plays. YTD Record is 10-4 against the Spread.
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :)

hugh
09-26-2012, 10:26 PM
All Posted HERE for free.
Official Picks this week:
1)Got to take Wash +6.5 on the national stage. Official pick but only a 1/2 unit.
2)Baylor +12 .... Official Pick.... only 28% on them. I like the story with this bears team.. Upset watch (a small play on money line).
3)Iowa -7 ..... Official .. 23% betting public on the hawkeyes
4)Boston College +9 .... 15% of the public? Play of the Week.
5)Kentucky +20.5 ... taking only 16% of all bets.... Pound this one
6)Miss +31 (took this line a few days ago. 3/4 of all bettors on the Tide.
7)Washington State +30.5 ... only 21% on state. This is a good team. A very solid play. (I say if you're up after plays 1-6... role your money into the late game and wash state +30.5)

Bookies stay in business. Most bettors wind up broke. Be the bookie this weekend and play these. Cheers everyone.

hugh
10-01-2012, 05:34 PM
I am going to lock in these plays right now/ here at the current lines.
YTD 15-6 :ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:
Plays for This week:
Looks like we get to play a couple favorites this week. Followers of this thread may not be accustomed to doing so. But the opportunity has surfaced.
Navy +10
Pen State -3
Stanford -10
Texas -6.5
Georgia Tech +10
These are official plays and are all big games on the national stage.
Leans (but no official plays: utah +14 South Carolina -2 NC State +14
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

hugh
10-05-2012, 05:32 PM
Getting rid of the favorites that I previously posted. A flood of public money has come in on Penn St. and Stanford. Texas is the only play that sort of works with my betting style, but at 36% of public money it just doesn't fit well enough.
So 2 Plays for Saturday:
Navy +10 (locked the line in earlier but still should cover with +8).... Navy doesn't score very much but I liked the way they defended San Jose State last week. With a little bit on offense they should be able to handle Air Force easily. Looking for a straight up win.
Georgia Tech +10.5 .... Playing Clemson. Should be an evenly matched up and down game. 10 points seems enough in this spot against a heavily backed Tigers team. Close to 80% are on Clemson this week.
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::T hmbUp:

hugh
10-08-2012, 03:35 PM
16-7 on the Season.
Early Looks and Leans for next Week:
1) Colorado +22.5 :Thursday Game on National TV. 7 out of 10 bettors are on the Sun Devils. 22.5 seems like enough for Colorado in this situation.
2) Missouri +21: Maybe a small play here. All season long the Tide has been pounded by the public but are only 2-3 ATS. Mizz might continue Alabama's futility against the spread. 86% of all spread wagers are on Alabama.
3)BYU -2.5: An obvious Trap here and maybe the play of the week. BYU brings a quality team against O-state, but the public is smitten with the other side. Only 18% are on the home team BYU.
4)Texas Tech +3.5: Smart money is all over this game. Only 9% of all money coming in is on Tech but the line just jumped from +4.5 to +3.5. Pound this game and count your money. Play of the Week potential.
5)LSU -2.5 ... Doesn't fit in with my system but I just like this game. Maybe for a 1/4 unit.

These are my early thoughts. Let's do it again! :)
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

rastajenk
10-09-2012, 03:16 PM
When you say X % of the bets are on one team or the other, where does that come from?

hugh
10-09-2012, 04:58 PM
You can find public betting stats right here for free:
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/matchups/
There are premium sites out there that will give you more info, but VI will suffice. :)

sammy the sage
10-09-2012, 07:41 PM
Look at the O/U on the Tex./Okl. game...fascinating... ;)

hugh
10-12-2012, 01:12 PM
Having a pretty good year so far betting college ball. I just have this feeling that the public is going to do well this weekend. Sportsbooks are flush with cash right now and the lines are not great for against the public bets. I usually focus on games on national TV and teams that the public doesn't like.
Let me first point to the games that jumped off the page....
Iowa St. +6.5
Minn +3.5
Utah +9.5
Auburn +5.5
Mizz +21.5
BYU -5.5
Texas Tech +3.5
Now which of these games would be the hardest bets for me to make?
1)Minn +3.5
2) BYU -5.5
3)Texas Tech. +3.5
4) Mizz +21.5
So these are my official plays this week. That being said I am only going to go a half unit this week.. The public has their day too and I'm thinking it might be tomorrow. Just a feeling.
So 16-7 thus far... let's keep it going.
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

hugh
10-19-2012, 02:41 PM
I had a terrible week last time out. That happens over the course of the season though. 1-3 last week.... so 17-10 on the season. I think the public is in for a rough weekend. big stock market (public favorites) are imploding. There is a strong correlation between the financial markets and the betting markets. So i hope to turn things around.
I was:p Right:p about the lines last week: quote..."That being said I am only going to go a half unit this week.. The public has their day too and I'm thinking it might be tomorrow. Just a feeling."
Official Plays for 10/19...
Purdue +18.5
Cal +2.5
South Florida +6
Tenn +20
Utah +10
A full unit on all of these. My top play this week is south florida.
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::T hmbUp:

hugh
10-25-2012, 02:53 PM
:bang:
I almost want to stop doing these against the public bets after my dismal past two weeks. BUT that probably means the lines will be soft this week.
The public has won the last two weeks... the books always win in the end. 19-13 on the year
Here are this week's plays...
Wake Forest +13
Air Force +3.5
Iowa +5.5
Texas Tech +7
Arizona +6.5
Penn St +1
Alabama -24 (half unit)
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::T hmbUp::ThmbUp:
Weird lines. Leans but no plays:
Washington +3
Buffalo +7.5
Wyoming +16.5
Army +3.5

hugh
10-30-2012, 05:13 PM
Mizz +15.5
Temple +15
Colorado +27.5
Illinois +27
Texas +6.5
Duke +13.5 ... Best bet
USC +7.5
Ok St. +10 (LOVE this one)

Let's Go!
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::T hmbUp::ThmbUp:
If you like Faves (not my betting style but pretty good plays):
Notre Dame -16.5
Georgia -14

Bettowin
10-31-2012, 12:04 PM
Texas Tech should score over 35 against Texas. Tough to take Texas this week.

Florida should crush Mizzou and -16 will be had mid 3rd quarter if not sooner.

hugh
11-02-2012, 05:13 PM
This week I'm going with the teams that have shown something ATS. Getting rid of mizz, temple, USC, texas, colorado, and Ill. Adding SD ST. in the night game versus Boise St.
Here are the final picks with lines ... vegasinsider...
Duke +13
Ok. St. +9
San Diego State +15
that's all.
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

hugh
12-12-2012, 01:34 PM
Well I knew it was going to be a grind but the season is almost over and I am up. I took a break from the mid season doldrums. these against the public plays work best at the beginning and the END of the season.
Bowl games are huge money winners for books. The public backs almost any favorite. Usually around 70% plus are on the faves. BUT both teams have just one game to play. Anything can happen when both teams are so into it. Take the money line too. Upsets happen all the time.
Here are the games (dogs) I am playing this bowl season and the percentages bet on them. cheers :)
Nevada +10 32%
Toledo +10 31%
East Carolina +6 17%
SMU +12 31%
Bowling green +7 32%
Ohio +7 7%
Virginia tech -2.5 38%
Minnesota +13 15%
Syracuse +4 12%
Texas +2 24%
MSU +2.5 24%
NC State +6.5 20%
Clemson +3.5 23%
Purdue + 16.5 20%
Wolverines +5 17%
Nebraska +10 16%
Northern Ill. +13.5 27%
Louisville +13 25%
Kansas State +9.5 32%
Pitt +3.5 30%
No real play on the championship but if you did have to play take the Tide minus the points. that's if you HAVE to have action on it. It will probably be fun game to watch.

So bet these dogs. Players at the window bet with their hearts on bowl games and get reckless.
Money line on every game is a must.
Happy bowl season.
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::T hmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

Bettowin
12-12-2012, 04:53 PM
According to my records favorites won and covered the spread 22 out of 30 bowl games last year. Using my bowl pickem sheet from last year so the spreads were before the first game and probably changed some before the games were actually played.

Maybe bet the favorites early and give the points then adjust or take the middle on big line moves?

hugh
12-29-2012, 06:25 PM
ATP dogs doing awesome so far!
Texas plus 3 tonite fits the profile as does msu plus 2.5
could be an epic bowl year for my against the public plays
happy holidays

hugh
12-30-2012, 03:06 PM
3 for 3 yesterday and for the bowl year my ATP plays are hitting over 80 %
big play for me tomorrow on Clemson plus 6..... More than 7 of 10 bettors on the other side and the tigers are red hot.