The Election of 2012: My Prediction

[Teach]

I don’t usually make predictions, that is unless it’s on the speed and endurance of thoroughbred and standardbred race horses.



I’ll begin by saying I’m a registered Democrat. In fact, growing up in the city of Boston, I don’t believe I recall ever meeting a Republican until I enrolled in college. Yet, I’m going out on the limb to predict that former Massachusetts governor, Mitt Romney, will defeat President Obama. The way I see it, in the 2008 election, there was just so much disenchantment with President George W. Bush that any reasonable Democratic candidate could have won the election. In that election, the Democrats were energized. They could, colloquially speaking, “taste it”.



However, four years later, I sense a feeling of apathy among the Democratic Party adherents. The rank and file, I mean. No one’s doing handstands. Oh, the Democratic Party leadership is busy beating the drums, but their actions don’t seem to be stirring up much emotion. Even here in Massachusetts, no one seems to be talking much about an election that’s just two months away.



The feeling I get is that President Obama has had four years to extricate us from a deep economic recession; yet, he’s hardly made a dent in the stagnating economic picture. Yes, he killed (the Navy Seals did it) Osama Bin Laden and he bailed out General Motors (a shadow of it’s former “Big Three” self). Yet, there are those who are saying, “What have you done for me lately?”



As far as foreign policy is concerned, what is our foreign policy? Oh, I see Sec. of State Hillary Clinton meeting with this foreign dignatary and that, but I must admit that I’m quite hazy as to who we’re supporting and who we’re not. We’re arming and training the Afghanistan militia against the Taliban; yet, this same militia is killing American soldiers. I ask: Have the brave men and women who have died over there sacrificed their lives in vain? Will things be any better once we eventually leave?



I think that if President Obama has any chance of winning in the next two months, it will be because Mitt Romney flubbed the debates, or he says something whereby he literally “shoots himself in foot” (Romney's father once said he had been “brainwashed”).



As I look over the electoral college map, I just can’t see Barack Obama carrying enough “battleground” states to win this election. Oh, Ohio will be key. President Obama will carry the major cities like Cleveland (Cincinnati is questionable; it’s practically in Kentucky), but that won’t be enough to offset the growing Republican support in the small cities and towns and in the rural areas.



In a nutshell, there’s just too much disenchantment. Recently, Paul Ryan repeated the words that Ronald Reagan spoke decades earlier: “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” Most people are asking themselves that very question. And most are saying “no”. Game. Set. Match.

[Greyfox]

However, four years later, I sense a feeling of apathy among the Democratic Party adherents. The rank and file, I mean. No one’s doing handstands.

No one is doing handstands because Obama has proven time and time again that he's over his head.

It's sad, but we are witnessing a textbook case of what Professor Laurence J. Peter outlined as a principle many years ago:

"People in organizations tend to rise to their level of incompetency."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Principle

[barn32]

Obama is a lock. He can't lose. It's in the bag before there even was a bag. Those who don't (or won't) see this are just horrible handicappers living in a delusional world.

What's so hard to figure out?

[PaceAdvantage]

Obama is a lock. He can't lose. It's in the bag before there even was a bag. Those who don't (or won't) see this are just horrible handicappers living in a delusional world.

What's so hard to figure out? Seriously, based on what?

The economy? :lol::lol::lol::lol:

[Saratoga_Mike]

Seriously, based on what?
The economy? :lol::lol::lol::lol:

Government dependency, but he still isn't a lock. Hopefully the debates will help Romney. O is a great orator, but not much of debater (Hillary beat him in every debate except Philly where she fumbled the driver's license question).

[Teach]

As a further clarification, I believe that the 2012 Presidential election comes down to two states: Ohio, with its 18 electoral votes, and Florida, with its 29 electoral voters.

As for Ohio, I'm leaning toward giving that state to Romney. Not enough votes from major urban areas, e.g., Cleveland to offset Republican strength elsewhere. As a footnote, Cincinnati was the only major city that FDR did not carry when he beat Wendell Willkie in the 1940 presidential election.

Florida, on the other hand, may be a whole 'nother story. Democrat strength is generally in south Florida and the Miami area. There has to be a tremendous get-out-the-vote campaign to ensure that Obama gets everyone of his supporters out to the polls. However, as you move north toward the interior and especially in the panhandle region up toward Pensacola you have a solid Republican base.

Finally, I think it's going to be "a cliffhanger". Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed. The outcome could be decided by fewer than ten or fifteen electoral votes. The get-out-vote campaign, on each side - is huge!

[pandy]

My prediction is Romney by a comfortable margin with a possible landslide. Three big keys here, independents and blue dog democrats, plus turnout. Blue Dog democrats are democrats who are fiscally conservative but socially liberal, the old Reagan democrats. These are the people who will decide this election and both of these groups heavily supported Obama last time. This time the independents will strongly support Romney, and the President will lose a significant percentage of the Blue Dog democrats, who are worried about the deficit, high gas prices, and high unemployment. The other big key for Romney is that the conservative base is revved up for this election and the turnout on the Republican side is going to be much stronger. As Teach correctly pointed out, there is no excitement on the Democratic side.

By the way, I hit 60% against the spread on my free NFL picks last year and I'll have them again this year.

Another thing I can add, the Euro problem is going to hurt the President, in my opinion. President Obama clearly prefers the European model of bigger government and higher taxes. If Europe was doing well it would make it a lot easier for him to repeat, but with the severe problems in Europe, independents are going to take that into consideration, another reason why they will over whelming support Romney.

[ArlJim78]

Of course Romney will win by a sizable margin.

The Clint Eastwood sketch has people talking that would ordinarily never discuss politics. I noticed this at the restaurant this morning, older waitstaff and patrons where all talking about it, and every one of them commented as to how funny it was.

[Dave Schwartz]

IMHO, Barn has it right: Obama is a lock.

I know what the polls say but (as usual) I hold up these guys:
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_Quotes.html

Here is the thing... The RNC generally spikes the polls (logically) in favor of the Repub candidate. However, this time, it actually spiked in favor of the Dem candidate! And by a full 10 points!

Remember, I am saying this from the standpoint of being a registered Republican, who would never consider voting for Obama. I do not WANT him to be re-elected. But facts are facts.

It almost seems to me that the RNC is trying to help Obama get elected. I mean, really... the key issues seem obvious (as I see it): economic survival and health care.

Yet the RNC wants to hammer on abortion (again), gay marriage (like you can get the manure back into the horse) and now, gambling. Seriously, it is as if they want to find some reason for every single voter to NOT vote for them!

Listen, I LIKE the Republican ideals; they are much closer to what I have in mind. But this party is so out of touch with reality that we may not see another Republican president for 20 years or more!


Just my opinion. Hope I am wrong.


Dave Schwartz

[FantasticDan]

Wow, Romney in a landslide, the Eastwood debacle was great.. some real bizarro world stuff in here, keep it comin! :cool:

[lamboguy]

my prediction is that if Romney gets elected this country will be back on the gold standardhttp://therealasset.co.uk/gop-gold-standard/

[Valuist]

Anyone who voted for McCain in 2008 will vote for Romney. I suspect quite a few Obama voters from 2008 will not show up. The 2008 energized group was the young people. Obama got that vote. The energized group that will turn out in 2012 is the Tea Party. Obama will NOT get that vote.

[pandy]

Yes the Tea Party will have a strong impact again. Youth vote should be down, not excited this time. Some seem to have forgot that the Republicans won big in the mid term elections and the President's approval ratings have dropped since then.

[Saratoga_Mike]

my prediction is that if Romney gets elected this country will be back on the gold standardhttp://therealasset.co.uk/gop-gold-standard/

Wanna bet? Name the amount

[Saratoga_Mike]

IMHO, Barn has it right: Obama is a lock.

I know what the polls say but (as usual) I hold up these guys:
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_Quotes.html

Here is the thing... The RNC generally spikes the polls (logically) in favor of the Repub candidate. However, this time, it actually spiked in favor of the Dem candidate! And by a full 10 points!


Dave Schwartz

What poll spiked 10 points in favor of Obama post-convention?

[so.cal.fan]

Thank you for your thoughtful analysis, Teach.
Very good comment.
I understand the liberal point of view, well, I used to be one.

Things are not so good now, people are anxious, I have several friends out of work. (I live in California). They are concerned.
Young people here have a difficult time getting a good job.

Even retired people like me are not better off than we were 4 years ago.
We are worried, not happy with the way things are going.

President Obama has failed. He needs to be retired, but you can bet he'll be far better off financially than most of us.

[Dave Schwartz]

What poll spiked 10 points in favor of Obama post-convention?


Winner take all at the link.

The top quote is popular vote, the bottom is "Who will be President."

It was 59-41 before the convention, then went to 69-31 and now has settled back a little to 65-35. The point is that there is another spike coming... but it will probably be in favor of Obama.

[Capper Al]

Did we forget that Hillary was a lock?

[ceejay]

My prediction: Romney wins popular vote but loses the anachronism that is the electoral college

[Saratoga_Mike]

Winner take all at the link.

The top quote is popular vote, the bottom is "Who will be President."

It was 59-41 before the convention, then went to 69-31 and now has settled back a little to 65-35. The point is that there is another spike coming... but it will probably be in favor of Obama.

I see - yes, the debates are Romney's last hope, imo.

[pandy]

My prediction: Romney wins popular vote but loses the anachronism that is the electoral college


l think Romney is a lock but if he does lose I believe that you will be correct because he could win the popular vote and lose Ohio.

[pandy]

Thank you for your thoughtful analysis, Teach.
Very good comment.
I understand the liberal point of view, well, I used to be one.

Things are not so good now, people are anxious, I have several friends out of work. (I live in California). They are concerned.
Young people here have a difficult time getting a good job.

Even retired people like me are not better off than we were 4 years ago.
We are worried, not happy with the way things are going.

President Obama has failed. He needs to be retired, but you can bet he'll be far better off financially than most of us.


Interesting comments. A couple of years go I was speaking to a young man who was in sales and had recently moved here from California. He said that a few people in his family (uncles) told him that he should move to the east coast if he wanted to start a family and have a future because California was going downhill and would only get worse. He took their advice.

[Teach]

As I stated before, I’m a registered Democrat. I live in liberal Massachusetts. Yet, I tell it like it is. On this the day of the opening of the DNC, I still see this as Romney’s election to lose. You ask. How do you arrive at your conclusion? Well, I have family and friends in various parts of the country. My son, for example, lives north of Atlanta, GA. in a town called Cumming. He says, “Dad, this is night and day compared to the Boston area.” He adds, “there’s no way people here are going to vote for Barack Obama.”



Further, some of my friends and relatives, many of whom are registered Democrats or Independents, are saying the same thing. You hear words like “dissatisfaction”. “Frustration.” “Loss of esteem in the eyes of the world.” People are throwing up their hands and saying, “Where’s the leadership? We need direction.” Some are saying, “Let’s put America back on the map!”



My high school Latin teacher had this pet expression when he became frustrated with our lame excuses. He would say: “Facta non verba!” Deeds not words!

[barn32]

Did we forget that Hillary was a lock?Hillary had NO chance, and I said so.

[PaceAdvantage]

Yet the RNC wants to hammer on abortion (again), gay marriage (like you can get the manure back into the horse) and now, gambling. Seriously, it is as if they want to find some reason for every single voter to NOT vote for them!What are you talking about? I watched the convention (not every minute), and I didn't hear abortion or gay marriage or gambling HAMMERED...in fact, if you blinked, you might have missed the VEILD REFERENCES to one or two of these issues...

HAMMERED? where? not on national TV...

[Dave Schwartz]

Then I guess I have completely misunderstood. It appears to me that a major part of the Romney campaign is abortion and gay marriage.

Is that untrue?

[thaskalos]

Obama will win, IMO...but our fate is gloomy either way.

And I have been taking some necessary precautions...

I am buying those belts that have holes all the way around...so I can tighten them as much as it takes...

[burnsy]

[QUOTE=PaceAdvantage]What are you talking about? I watched the convention (not every minute), and I didn't hear abortion or gay marriage or gambling HAMMERED...in fact, if you blinked, you might have missed the VEILD REFERENCES to one or two of these issues...

HAMMERED? where? not on national TV...[/QUOTE
Tell that to my friend that is a professional poker player...the republicans outlawed online play, shut down his account and he lost thousands. I can't stand either party and am an independant to libretarian. The republicans want free markets, which i like. But they don't want free people. They keep insisting on Bible bullshit being in govt., where it does not belong. The stupid wars we don't belong in and all the rest of their social crap and nation engineering. Calling it conservative is a joke and a lie! I can't for the life of me figure out what they are "conserving". The democrats want the "system" where everything is regulated, planned or handed out. Who in their right mind could back either? If you do ....you are either nuts or dumb. Now to my prediction..........does not matter who wins...economy will still struggle. This is a world depression caused by banking failures and speculation. 1930's all over again with less pain. Obama did the same policies Bush did...one guy spent a fortune on medicare drugs for the drug companies and Obama gave the insurance companies a deal with this health care law. even if Romney gets in....he will do what hes told to do .....just like the last two guys did. The economy is not going to come back because one jack ass says he can do it.....both make that absurd claim...this is a catastrophy..like a natural disaster. The interests rates can't go any lower.......taxes can't go any lower and the debts just keep getting higher.(just like the great depression) All the crap they argue over won't change a thing...only time will fix this. These two can only make things worse by meddling...the markets will eventually stabilize on their own unless countries start going under...then the cycle will start all over again. The president does not have the power or some magic wand to fix a free market world and thats what it is. It truly is a global economy now. The laugher is that many of the citizens believe and argue over this crap....it does not change a thing. The president is not a king, hes an executive...he executes law...he can't deal with finances...only congress can. Then the media makes a fortune selling this "president " crap. He can only sign what they give him. Don't people learn how the government and the economy works anymore? If they did, they would understand we are being sold a bunch of BS!
Romney promises jobs....whats he going to do ....hire people to cut his lawn?Obama says the same thing.....should i hold my breath...lol...lol...where do people get the appplication...lol...lol

[Rookies]

As I look over the electoral college map, I just can’t see Barack Obama carrying enough “battleground” states to win this election. Oh, Ohio will be key. President Obama will carry the major cities like Cleveland (Cincinnati is questionable; it’s practically in Kentucky), but that won’t be enough to offset the growing Republican support in the small cities and towns and in the rural areas.

In a nutshell, there’s just too much disenchantment. Recently, Paul Ryan repeated the words that Ronald Reagan spoke decades earlier: “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” Most people are asking themselves that very question. And most are saying “no”. Game. Set. Match.

I don't necessarily disagree with the way you've framed your entire analysis, except... except when you hit the bottom line (as I've left above). In a normal U.S Prez election, the standard Reagan question frames the economic side and if its a significant disparity- controls the winner & loser.

EXCEPT THIS TIME.

What should have been an excellent opportunity for Romney to surge ahead (RNC) is now gone, left to hard core factions discussing rape, abortion and porn.:rolleyes: Oh- and empty chairs... It simply didn't happen.

Now the DNC has the opportunity to turn up the heat another 3-4 points.

This will leave likely one FINAL area to make a resurgence- the debates. And, it's all on Mittens here. He must hit at least 2 Grand Slam, Knockout Punches out of the 3 to make a difference.

Could this happen? Possibly, but I don't see it.

America will be giving the President another shot to get the economy righted in November.

[pandy]

Then I guess I have completely misunderstood. It appears to me that a major part of the Romney campaign is abortion and gay marriage.

Is that untrue?


The Rep. convention barely mentioned either one of those issues.

[elysiantraveller]

Barring anything surprising this election will be a comfortable Romney win. He simply enjoys far too many advantages at this stage of the game.

[GameTheory]

Then I guess I have completely misunderstood. It appears to me that a major part of the Romney campaign is abortion and gay marriage.

Is that untrue?That's what the Dems would like people to think, I believe...

[NJ Stinks]

Barring anything surprising this election will be a comfortable Romney win. He simply enjoys far too many advantages at this stage of the game.

Do yourself a favor and don't bet on it.

[JustRalph]

No polls mean a damn thing until October

Here's a reminder

http://www.nytimes.com/1988/05/17/us/poll-shows-dukakis-leads-bush-many-reagan-backers-shift-sides.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm

[elysiantraveller]

Do yourself a favor and don't bet on it.

... okay...

I tend to be pretty good at this stuff...

Romney has an advantage in policy, intensity, and most importantly money.

Those aren't my opinions... those are facts...

[ten2oneormore]

... okay...

I tend to be pretty good at this stuff...

Romney has an advantage in policy, intensity, and most importantly money.

Those aren't my opinions... those are facts...


Pretty sure 2 of the 3 are opinions with money being the fact and I doubt you even know his policies or you wouldn't be calling it an advantage.The other one I think you just threw in there for effect.

[elysiantraveller]

Pretty sure 2 of the 3 are opinions with money being the fact and I doubt you even know his policies or you wouldn't be calling it an advantage.The other one I think you just threw in there for effect.

Gallup: Romney stronger on Economy (http://www.gallup.com/poll/156857/obama-wins-likability-romney-economy.aspx)

Huffpost: Democrat Voter Enthusiam Down (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/25/voter-enthusiasm-2012_n_1703127.html)

Nope... these things are widely considered to be fact this cycle. American's like Romney more on the economy, GOP voters are more intense, and the Romney camp has a boat load more money...

Those things aren't good if you are the other guy...

[bigmack]

D. Schwartz running around talking about Romney/abortion and gay marriage, with his head stuck in the Iowa jazz?

BO is a sitting duck. Has been for well over a year. Trends all favor RM from this pernt forward.

Take it to the bank.

[HuggingTheRail]

Question from a Canadian observer.

Are the Republicans trying to win the election, or not lose the election? In other words, do they see themselves as the favourite?

[Dave Schwartz]

Mack, I hope you are right.

[PaceAdvantage]

These lines are like a horse you see on the board as the favorite and can't understand for the life of you why this horse is taking so much money...

Of course, it usually means you've missed something in your handicapping or somebody knows something you don't... :lol:

How can a President with a 45% approval rating (+- 3 points) be such a huge favorite in the offshore books?

Bush's approval rating was over 50% in 2004 and he was nowhere near such a huge favorite on the betting exchanges...and Kerry was no barn burner of a competitor...never was...

Something doesn't jibe.

[Greyfox]

Then I guess I have completely misunderstood. It appears to me that a major part of the Romney campaign is abortion and gay marriage.

Is that untrue?

A major part of the Romney campaign is abortion and gay marriage????:rolleyes:

Dave, you are reputedly a pretty good horseplayer.

Tell us how you ever formulated that idea.
I think that idea is "off the to the moon" from what I would have expected from you.
Tell us more.

[Dave Schwartz]

Well, perhaps I have misunderstood or as PA has suggested, I have been influenced by the Obama commercials (that I try not to listen to).

I must admit that when my conservative acquaintances get together (such as at our BBQ yesterday) their conversation is mostly about how Romney is against gay marriage and abortion. Is this untrue?

Please educate me.

BTW, in my defense, I attempt to remain politically apathetic. (I know how I will vote but feel that beyond casting my ballot I cannot effect change. In other words, there is no reason for me to beat the drum loudly. Everyone knows where I stand.)


Dave

[PaceAdvantage]

Yes, he's against gay marriage and abortion...two burning issues of our time greatly affecting huge majorities of the population... :rolleyes:

I guess under every silver lining there is a cloud...

[Dave Schwartz]

two burning issues of our time greatly affecting huge majorities of the population

LOL - Then why are you ragging me? It seems I got it right, In fact, it seems I agree with you... I see these as far less important issues as the fiscal ones.

My point was that the repubs seem to have picked small stuff that will piss voters off instead of a platform that says, "Fix Finance First!"

[MrBaseball]

To get the REAL answer to this question........I consulted the REAL prognosticators............BOOKMAKERS. Since Nevada bookmakers
have yet to post any presidential odds (I think they can now do this, because they posted odds on the oscars??), I went to some offshore shops..........and ALL have O'Bama at a minimum of -190 favorite and above. We are talking Pinnacle, BoDog, Ladbrooke, 5-dimes, Wm Hill, & even Betfair.

Finally I turned to Nate Silver who handicaps all the pollsters and uses some other nefarious factors in his presidential model..........Obama 310 electoral votes to Romney's 227 electoral votes...........73% chance of Obama victory.......that pencils to -270 fav.

Too High for me to place a wager :sleeping: ..........but all you diehard Romney guys can get a very very nice dog play on your guy. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Mr Baseball

[Greyfox]

My point was that the repubs seem to have picked small stuff that will piss voters off instead of a platform that says, "Fix Finance First!"



Hate to tell you this, but Romney has been pounding the idea of jobs and economy until he is blue in the face.

That has been the major focus and drum beat of his campaign, over and over and over.

His central platform is "Fix Finance First."

It is the Obama commercials, that you are trying not to listen to, which are telling you otherwise.

[barn32]

How can a President with a 45% approval rating (+- 3 points) be such a huge favorite in the offshore books?

Bush's approval rating was over 50% in 2004 and he was nowhere near such a huge favorite on the betting exchanges...and Kerry was no barn burner of a competitor...never was...

Something doesn't jibe.The only thing that "doesn't jibe" is your poor handicapping skills. You went through the same denial four years ago.

You're holding out hope for what you want to happen and not focusing logically on what will happen.

You're thinking with your heart--not your head.

Wake up and smell the coffee.

[Mike at A+]

I think the upcoming ads will have the polls jumping around like the stock market. The Romney ads will focus on what 0bama has done over the last few years (unemployment, food stamps, contributing to unrest in the middle east, kickbacks to political cronies like Solyndra, the GM bailout, the Chevy Volt, the golf outings, the vacations and no budget in over 3 years). Romney will also attempt to explain in detail (and simple enough that the sub triple digit IQ folks can understand) the policies he will put in place to kick start the economy and job market. The 0bama ads will avoid addressing "accomplishments" as they are few and far between. Instead they will use the typical Democrat scare tactics targeting every special interest group imaginable. They will also rely heavily on liberals' hatred of George W. Bush and refer to him often. The October "surprise" could be a doozie and it could be anyone's guess as to what that might be. I'm sure many pundits and operatives are working 24x7 to come up with the silver bullet.

As far as who will win, I think it's far too close (and too early) to call and it could come down to the debates. The VP debate should provide much entertainment.

[elysiantraveller]

The only thing that "doesn't jibe" is your poor handicapping skills. You went through the same denial four years ago.

You're holding out hope for what you want to happen and not focusing logically on what will happen.

You're thinking with your heart--not your head.

Wake up and smell the coffee.

How does the candidate with less money? A weaker base? And whose policies are less liked in polls going to win?

Those are the reasons Obama won in '08.

[ceejay]

Finally I turned to Nate Silver who handicaps all the pollsters and uses some other nefarious factors in his presidential model.
Interesting post today
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Being only tied in the polls immediately after his own convention is unambiguously a bearish sign for Mr. Romney — and probably the most tangible sign to date that Mr. Obama is the favorite.

[PaceAdvantage]

The only thing that "doesn't jibe" is your poor handicapping skills. You went through the same denial four years ago.

You're holding out hope for what you want to happen and not focusing logically on what will happen.

You're thinking with your heart--not your head.

Wake up and smell the coffee. No, actually i'm not...in fact, my last post contained stats and a relevant example from the last incumbent president...but you choose not to address anything I actually wrote...

Can you explain why Bush had much higher approval ratings than Obama at similar points in the election cycle and was not such a heavy favorite in the betting shops despite weak opposition?

I know...you'll tell me how strong of a candidate Kerry was in 2004...

I'm certainly not holding out for what I hope will happen...if you're so knowledgeable and i'm so deluded, take nee to school.

Approval ratings in the 40s...an economy that NOBODY thinks is doing well (using all source media reports for that), and a huge favorite in the betting shops...makes a lot of sense...

[barn32]

Can you explain why Bush had much higher approval ratings than Obama at similar points in the election cycle and was not such a heavy favorite in the betting shops despite weak opposition?Clinton was the favorite in the betting shops.

Approval ratings in the 40s...an economy that NOBODY thinks is doing well (using all source media reports for that), and a huge favorite in the betting shops...makes a lot of sense...Maybe it doesn't make sense to you because you don't want it to make sense, but there are logical reasons behind it. The first thing you need to do is to ask yourself what those reasons are.

[GameTheory]

One factor we've heard little about or people have gotten backwards. Even though we keep hearing that Romney is raising much more money than Obama, so far Obama has outspent Romney by a huge margin -- 4 or 5 to 1 in the swing states. Because of the campaign finance laws, Romney is only now (post-convention) allowed to actually spend that money he has raised for the general election, so he should be able to significantly outspend Obama for the remainder of the campaign.

Prior to the convention, Romney was only allowed to use funds raised for the primaries, and of course the primaries for Romney were hugely expensive because of all the Repub challengers. Whereas naturally Obama had no challengers and has been swimming in money he has been able to use solely against Republicans in general (during the primaries) and then Romney in particular once it was clear he was going to be the nominee.

Still, if Romney got any bump from the convention it hasn't shown up yet. But he did get a bump from the Ryan pick, or was just picking up steam anyway around that time -- it is unclear as Ryan doesn't seem too popular among anyone but the Repub base. Then again, it can be argued that the conventions are less important than ever since they determine nothing, are hardly even on TV anymore, and nobody watches them. So any bumps for Romney will have to come from the huge influx of ads that will be coming down the pike and from the debates.

[lamboguy]

No, actually i'm not...in fact, my last post contained stats and a relevant example from the last incumbent president...but you choose not to address anything I actually wrote...

Can you explain why Bush had much higher approval ratings than Obama at similar points in the election cycle and was not such a heavy favorite in the betting shops despite weak opposition?

I know...you'll tell me how strong of a candidate Kerry was in 2004...

I'm certainly not holding out for what I hope will happen...if you're so knowledgeable and i'm so deluded, take nee to school.

Approval ratings in the 40s...an economy that NOBODY thinks is doing well (using all source media reports for that), and a huge favorite in the betting shops...makes a lot of sense...if i remember correctly, up until the week of the election Bush was a -$150 favorite over Kerry, the day of the election Kerry was a -$200 favorite over Bush and the favorite went up in smoke!

the price on this election seems to be the right one at the moment. the next time after this week that you will have any type of a different shift in odds could occur after the first presidential debate. Obama is perceived as a better bull-shit artist or debater than the other side. i have seen the better debater under achieve in their debates and lesser debater over achieve like George Bush did against Gore. that's one of the ways he won that election. Romney could lose the debate and still improve in the polls if he doesn't perform that poorly.

but like in other sports its very tough to beat the champ and in politics its not that easy to beat the incumbent. Romney could still be sitting and waiting to deliver the knock out punch if he has one to change up this election.

[PaceAdvantage]

Clinton was the favorite in the betting shops.

Maybe it doesn't make sense to you because you don't want it to make sense, but there are logical reasons behind it. The first thing you need to do is to ask yourself what those reasons are.What does Clinton have to do with 2004?

[Mike at A+]

This http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cncbOEoQbOg could easily be the turning point of the election.

[Mike at A+]

What does Clinton have to do with 2004?
The groper campaigning for the doper.

[boxcar]

Hate to tell you this, but Romney has been pounding the idea of jobs and economy until he is blue in the face.

That has been the major focus and drum beat of his campaign, over and over and over.

His central platform is "Fix Finance First."

It is the Obama commercials, that you are trying not to listen to, which are telling you otherwise.

Yup, he's boring the voters to death with his one-trick show. Rom needs to get out there and mix it up with Obama and to excite the base. Wouldn't even hurt for him to expound on the virtues of conservatism v. socialism. But hell would freeze over first...


Boxcar

[bigmack]

Wouldn't even hurt for him to expound on the virtues of conservatism v. socialism. But hell would freeze over first...

Why do I get the feeling even God himself isn't conservative enough for you?

[elysiantraveller]

Why do I get the feeling even God himself isn't conservative enough for you?

No, I think he just really needs it explained and was hoping Romney would help him out...

They conceal that information in books though.

NOTE: Not "The Book" Boxcar...

ET

[jognlope]

I think Obama does a lot that doesn't get advertised, like the groundbreaking law to make school loans affordable to everyone. This is so good for our future because now a doctor (still has to pay malpractice insurance) can actually consider primary care, not a specialty, in a rural area. And this extends to any profession requiring schooling.

I think because it's Romney, he has a good chance to win it. I do understand that an economy takes years to come back. The only thing that could have been done that wasn't quickly to save jobs was to bring back something like the civil jobs programs of the 30s through 50s, right away. But he extended unemployment instead.

Anyway if it were someone like Tom Coburn on Rep. ticket, then Obama may have a problem or even Jon Huntsman, just a couple examples. But Romney, he has such a bad image.

Also people don't realize how the health care law will help yet. It was a great accomplishment. Clinton gets his facts right. That's one thing he does and what he said in the convention speech was true about health care cost being 4% of GNP, the lowest in 50 years. Clinton is a consummate facts checker and I never doubt the verity of his facts.

Besides the fact that as Clinton said, things like Pell grants for community colleges (key to bringing back manufacturing and technical jobs back from India and China), biomedical research, these things will go if Reps are in office. Many more Clinton listed, too.

Payday and I have to hit the Walmart $2 a yard fabric bin!

[pandy]

After today's jobs report, the odds on Romney are looking even more attractive. The labor force participation rate is alarming. Last month 4 times more people gave up looking for work than got work.

The unemployment rate—which is politically salient and comes from a separate survey than the jobs data—fell to 8.1% from 8.3%. That was because an estimated 368,000 people gave up looking for work. Throughout this year, the unemployment rate has bounced between 8.1% and 8.3%. Meantime, the labor force participation rate, which is the share of the population that is working or looking for work, fell to its lowest level since 1981.

[Tom]

Our workforce is lower than any time in 31 years.
The Reagan years. 1981.

Romney is no Reagan, but Obama certainly is another Carter.

[RaceBookJoe]

Our workforce is lower than any time in 31 years.
The Reagan years. 1981.

Romney is no Reagan, but Obama certainly is another Carter.

Any bets on the unemployment number magically getting below 8% the friday before the election? Im guessing 7.8%, which will of course will be revised back up to 8.3% after the election.

[jognlope]

Big business, small business would like Romney, especially the ones who had accountants to their taxes, had to pay much less but didn't "do the arithmetic" and realize they got a nice tax decrease from Obama with the first stimulus. Even I saw I got a tax decrease as an independent contractor doing SE form, it was half as much.

But he has to distance himself from a Medicare voucher program that, unless they're going to reassure us otherwise, has someone on $1200 a month social security retirement, having to pay up to $500 a month for Medicare. And the little old lady with a nasal cannula of oxygen in her nose and her walker trying to make it to her phone that she can't see to dial, to shop for insurance.

But Romney will probably get rid of some great things like Pell grants for technical and community colleges, which is assinine.

[JustRalph]

But Romney will probably get rid of some great things like Pell grants for technical and community colleges, which is assinine.

Where do you think the money for Pell grants comes from?

it's plain old welfare to universities.

[pandy]

Big business, small business would like Romney, especially the ones who had accountants to their taxes, had to pay much less but didn't "do the arithmetic" and realize they got a nice tax decrease from Obama with the first stimulus. Even I saw I got a tax decrease as an independent contractor doing SE form, it was half as much.

But he has to distance himself from a Medicare voucher program that, unless they're going to reassure us otherwise, has someone on $1200 a month social security retirement, having to pay up to $500 a month for Medicare. And the little old lady with a nasal cannula of oxygen in her nose and her walker trying to make it to her phone that she can't see to dial, to shop for insurance.

But Romney will probably get rid of some great things like Pell grants for technical and community colleges, which is assinine.

I probably should follow Medicare more closely. My dad passed two years ago and now my mom recently had to pay almost $3,000 after an operation she had which was lapro-sophic surgery and a week in the hospital. The actual bill was $55,000, which is absurd. Does anyone have suggestions? She is thinking of going on a plan that will cost her $300 a month.

[lamboguy]

I probably should follow Medicare more closely. My dad passed two years ago and now my mom recently had to pay almost $3,000 after an operation she had which was lapro-sophic surgery and a week in the hospital. The actual bill was $55,000, which is absurd. Does anyone have suggestions? She is thinking of going on a plan that will cost her $300 a month.you should move to massachusetts and get on Romney Care. the people on it get better care than the people that pay $800 a month for premiums and get better doctor's too. there are no restrictions to get on this plan either, pre-existing conditions are no problem in this state.

[Mike at A+]

Any bets on the unemployment number magically getting below 8% the friday before the election? Im guessing 7.8%, which will of course will be revised back up to 8.3% after the election.
I'm sure 0bama has been told by his handlers not to tout this drop from 8.3 to 8.1 because more people are now wise to the statistic of workplace participation and have a better understanding that 8.1% doesn't mean squat to people who gave up looking. BUT, I agree that as the election draws nearer, 0bama will use whatever numbers he has to in order to fool the sheep among us. BTW, nice moves on GOLD these past few days. I took a few chips off the table today.

[jognlope]

Then the GI bill was welfare. A Pell grant is an investment in manufacturing.

[Tom]

The GI Bill an attempt to reward those who put their lives on the line to help protect this nation. To call it is welfare is a grave insult to them all. If you don't know the difference between a soldier and an anchor.........they PAID far more out than that bill returned to them. That was a debt we repaid them, not a handout for being a failure.

[newtothegame]

Then the GI bill was welfare. A Pell grant is an investment in manufacturing. Speaking of assinine comments!!!

[jdhanover]

No one here is going to change their opinion nor agree. That I guarantee :D

Oddly, the deciding factor in the election (in the battleground states) may wind up being Bill Clinton. He is around a 70% favorability rating and something in the past couple of months that the Repubs did (not sure exactly what) seems to have pissed him off. I suspect he will be on the campaign trail a lot and could be worth the critical couple of points in swing states.

I agree there are some disenchanted Dems...probably a lower turnout there though I suspect not as bad as some say (on here). But don't assume that the same issue doesn't exist on the Republican side. Moderate Republicans I speak to are very very upset with where the part has gone (way too far right) and these people do not hate Obama (unlike some on here, they view him much closer to the center than the far left)...several said to me they won't vote for Obama, but wont vote for Romney either....and especially with Ryan on the ticket.

Should be a close call I suspect. Debates will be interesting. "Growth has been too slow because your policies suck" vs "better than going in the crapper like your policies did". Sigh. It has come to this.

Either way, we have a loooong uphill battle to get the economy really going again. Too many exogenous negative pressures (Europe being the most notable - its a world economy and that part of the world is dragging everyone down).

[ElKabong]

JMO....Clinton picks his spots in backing Obama. The stage was HIS in NC, he made the most of it and knew he had to pump up Obama to get the full adulation.

But remember, this is the same Bill Clinton that said Romney was fully qualified to sit in the White House and preside over the nation.

Fully Qualified.

I heard someone on a call in show here say that he bet Clinton would make it tough for Obama at some point between the convention and late October. Given Bill's waving from one side (prodding Romney in NC to praising Romney and declaring him Fully Qualified), I tend to agree.

And if that comes about, Obama will have no one to blame but himself. He's made a lot of enemies along the way, Bill being one. If Bill cools on the backing of the D ticket, and Obama loses b/c Clinton doesn't push thru the finish line, it would truly be ironic

[riskman]

Then the GI bill was welfare.

So, if you see some military combat vet, think a bit before thanking him for his service. You might not be doing him any favors lumping him in with welfare programs that gave veterans access to free or subsidized education and health care. The newly educated GIs who served in WWII, Korea and Vietnam created a significant economic impact and with the aid of VA loans were able to buy housing and establish themselves as part of a growing American middle class. I was one of them military welfare queens.

[jognlope]

You misinterpreted. I am all for any and all programs to help veterans. They deserve it since they risk life and limb, lose life and limb. There are no Americans I have more respect for than veterans.

Was just saying some aid is an investment in the future of the country. There are a bunch of jogs not being filled back of lack of skills. The world economic council gave a list of things causing poor economy and that was high on the list.

Global foundries here in Saratoga hires Indians, Chinese, a lot from abroad.

The technical colleges will help this. For instance, operating a computerized tool making machine, stuff like that.

[jognlope]

Jobs, not jogs. I need to do some jogging. :)

[JustRalph]

Then the GI bill was welfare. A Pell grant is an investment in manufacturing.


What? I should have known better


Adios!

[pandy]

Any bets on the unemployment number magically getting below 8% the friday before the election? Im guessing 7.8%, which will of course will be revised back up to 8.3% after the election.


RaceBookJoe, you a a friggin genius! You called it. You should work for CNBC.

[RaceBookJoe]

RaceBookJoe, you a a friggin genius! You called it. You should work for CNBC.

Thanks, but for me to work at CNBC I would have to find a cheerleading outfit...i dont like those hahaha.

[cj's dad]

The rate drop is due 100% to the fact that the welfare queens no longer are required to look for work, therefore the # dropped.