plays from bad posts

[imofe]

You have just got done handicapping the next race on the card. You found a horse that you are convinced is the best horse in the race. At post time the horse's odds are acceptable for a bet on top in gimmicks or win as you choose. The driver is descent, and so is the trainer. Here is the problem. The post.

The horse is 7,8 on a half mile , 8,9 on a 5/8 mile that goes 9 wide, or 9,10 on a mile track with those posts being historically low % for that track.

Now I'm not talking about a horse that has such good early speed that you know he has a great chance to go right to the top. I'm also not referring to a horse with no speed or early brush capability that you know will be last at the half. Now what do you do?

1) Pass the race.

2) Play the horse if the horse is at a higher price than you would normally accept. (something like 5-1 instead of 5/2)

3) Play the race like you normally would.

4) Play only if other positive factors were present ( top driver, drop in class, etc.)

5) Use something other than what I have mentioned.

[Ray2000]

For me it depends on how many "will leave" horses there are inside of you.

1 or 2 and the one you like on the outside could get a trip; .....3 or more and he's screwed.



GL

[imofe]

I agree Ray. But do you just try to predict who will leave (subjective) or do you detemine leavers by program info in which you do in scientifically? If you use program info, how do you go about calculating which horses are likely to leave?

[Ray2000]

imofe

There is a large margin of error in this but this is how I have the robot set up now to find the tendency to gain or lose ground at the start.

For each good ppline (no breaks, not qualifier, not older than 30 days) the computer subtracts the call at the half from the starting post (1st trailer is post 1.5).
...and adjusts for the driver that day by ± 0.25 (- for good, + for bad)
...and adjust for the pace that race by ± 0.25 (- fast pace, + for slow)

Example starting post 7, 1/2call 2nd, good driver, slow pace.... 7-2-.25+.25=5.0 for that line.

the average positional change of the good pp lines from post to half is then used to set style.

If the ave >1 the robot calls him a Leaver, <-1 a Closer, in between a Stalker.


Pandy has an excellent treatment of this factor at

http://www.drf.com/news/pandolfo-using-harness-early-speed-rating



.

[imofe]

This leads us back to the original bad post horse question. Do we want our horse in a race with zero or one leaver so that our horse may leave and get good position or do we want our horse in a race with three or four leavers so that he may have the chance to take advantage of a fast pace? Let us assume our horse is defined as a presser by the robot.

[Ray2000]

I'd say the best chance for a presser from an outside post would be in a fast pace race, but other factors can't be ignored. Driver changes and class dropping can play a part.

[grant miller]

I have no problem playing the 7-8 hole IF, the horse is 1 or more sec. faster than the field-has the leading driver at my track, Jim morrill is a good example at batavia, when hes there, he is head & shoulders better than any driver there. Shawn Grey is getting into this catigory too!