Long on Morning Line

[Aner]

Long on Morning Line

I intent to choose 100 plays that are 10:1 or higher on the morning line (before scratches). Goal is to show a profit.

Success in this odds range is not easy. In Dave's "Percentages and Probabilities, 2012" from Chart #176, he splits the morning line into two groups: front half (the lower odds) and rear half (higher odds). Based on over 300,000 races had you bet every horse in the rear half, you would have hit 4.6% of the time with a $net of $1.37 (loss of 31%).

Anyway, here goes.

9/1/12

Sar 4-----#5 Channel the Green
Sar 5-----#4 Avenging Spirit
Sar 10---#7 Cease

Dmr 8----#6 With a Miracle

AP 6-----#3 Windy City Richie
AP 8-----#4 Broadway Cal
AP 9-----#12 Sir Kipling
AP 11---#8 King Rootin Tootin

[Aner]

Long on Morning Line

I intent to choose 100 plays that are 10:1 or higher on the morning line (before scratches). Goal is to show a profit.

Success in this odds range is not easy. In Dave's "Percentages and Probabilities, 2012" from Chart #176, he splits the morning line into two groups: front half (the lower odds) and rear half (higher odds). Based on over 300,000 races had you bet every horse in the rear half, you would have hit 4.6% of the time with a $net of $1.37 (loss of 31%).

Anyway, here goes.

9/1/12

Sar 4-----#5 Channel the Green
Sar 5-----#4 Avenging Spirit
Sar 10---#7 Cease

Dmr 8----#6 With a Miracle

AP 6-----#3 Windy City Richie
AP 8-----#4 Broadway Cal
AP 9-----#12 Sir Kipling
AP 11---#8 King Rootin Tootin

0/8 = -$160 for the day.

[Aner]

09/02/12

Sar 3--- #2 Cameron Canyon
Sar 5--- #5 Believe in Betty
Sar 6--- #5 Annelle
Sar 11--- #8 Frazzie
Dmr 2--- #11 Honour Family
Dmr 6--- #8 Wild Dude

[Jay Trotter]

Good luck Aner :ThmbUp:

[Aner]

09/02/12

Sar 3--- #2 Cameron Canyon
Sar 5--- #5 Believe in Betty-----placed
Sar 6--- #5 Annelle
Sar 11--- #8 Frazzie
Dmr 2--- #11 Honour Family-----showed
Dmr 6--- #8 Wild Dude-----------placed


For day: 0/6 = $120 loss
Overall: 0/14 = $280 loss

[Aner]

09/03/12

Sar 5--- #10 Blondecat
Sar 7--- #6 Evasive Cat
Sar 11--- #6 Dendrite
AP 6--- #7 Huntgoddness
AP 7--- #4 Honor Indeed
AP 9--- #10 Moonshine Mullin
AP 10--- #2 Klipit
Dmr 6--- #2 Somethingabouther
Dmr 10--- #12 Fabulous Fit
Dmr 11--- #7 Anne's Seven Cats

[Aner]

09/03/12

15 Sar5--- #10 Blondecat
16 Sar 7--- #6 Evasive Cat
17 Sar 11--- #6 Dendrite
18 AP 6--- #7 Huntgoddness------- showed
19 AP 7--- #4 Honor Indeed
20 AP 9--- #10 Moonshine Mullin
21 AP 10--- #2 Klipit------------------ showed
22 Dmr 6--- #2 Somethingabouther
23 Dmr 10--- #12 Fabulous Fit------- won--- $222
24 Dmr 11--- #7 Anne's Seven Cats

For the day: 1/10--- +$22 profit

Overall: 1/24------- -($258) loss

[Aner]

09/05/12

25 Dmr 2--- #3 Green Team
26 Dmr 7--- #2 Bet On Victor
27 GG 5--- #5 Brite Judy
28 GG 6--- #2 Awesome Mike

[Track Phantom]

Love your angle here. I hope you stick with it.

For the record, here are my 10-1 or higher snuffs at DMR for 9-5-12:
Race 2: #3 Green Team (12-1)
Race 6: #6 Boxeur Des Rues (20-1)
Race 7: #7 El Vino (10-1)

http://www.trackphantom.com/Racing12.html

[Aner]

09/05/12

25 Dmr 2--- #3 Green Team
26 Dmr 7--- #2 Bet On Victor------ showed
27 GG 5--- #5 Brite Judy
28 GG 6--- #2 Awesome Mike


For day: 0/4 = ($80) loss

Overall: 1/28 = ($338) loss

[Aner]

09/08/12

29 Bel 5--- #10 Flattermewithroses
30 Bel 6--- #4 Dual Citizen
31 Bel 7--- #12 Papa Tom
32 Bel 9--- #1 El Corriente
33 LaD 7--- #5 Lover of Art
34 LaD 9 ---#6 Unbridled's Score
35 LaD 11--- #5 Lonnie Bell
36 LaD 13--- #2 France's Idol
37 Fpx 4 ---#10 Eighteenhundrednme
38 Fpx 6--- #8 Own It
39 Fpx 8--- #4 My Bashert
40 Fpx 11--- #2 Lethal Intent

[Capper Al]

Aner,

You might narrow your scope and add a horse that also gets a mention in the DRF consensus. You won't play many but you'll stand a better change.

Good Luck

[Aner]

09/08/12

29 Bel 5--- #10 Flattermewithroses----2nd at 48:1
30 Bel 6--- #4 Dual Citizen
31 Bel 7--- #12 Papa Tom
32 Bel 9--- #1 El Corriente
33 LaD 7--- #5 Lover of Art
34 LaD 9 ---#6 Unbridled's Score
35 LaD 11--- #5 Lonnie Bell
36 LaD 13--- #2 France's Idol
xx Fpx 4 ---#10 Eighteenhundrednme----scratched
37 Fpx 6--- #8 Own It------------------won =$532
38 Fpx 8--- #4 My Bashert-------------placed
39 Fpx 11--- #2 Lethal Intent


For the day: 1/11 = $312 profit
Overall: 2/39 = ($28) loss

[Aner]

Aner,

You might narrow your scope and add a horse that also gets a mention in the DRF consensus. You won't play many but you'll stand a better change.

Good Luck

Hi Al,

Many years ago I was introduced to a long shot system called the "dirty shirt". You looked at all the DRF handicappers picks and if one had a horse in his top three that was not mentioned by any other, it was the"dirty shirt". Haven't thought about this for a long time and have never tested it out. If time permits, I'll check to see if this will improve my results.

Aner

[Aner]

09/09/12

40 Bel 5--- #7 Barnards Galaxy
41 Bel 6--- #4 Freedom Rings
42 Bel 7--- #1 Wickapecko
43 Bel 7--- #6 Ol Donyo
44 Bel 9--- #2 Supsa
45 Bel 9--- #6 African Jazz
46 AP 2--- #4 Zap'em
47 AP 3--- #3 I Turned Outlaw
48 AP 6--- #4 Georgie My Boy
49 AP 8---#9 Gimme a Double
50 AP 9--- #6 Payton's Wildcat
51 Fpx 5--- #8 JM's Golden Legacy
52 Fpx 6---#6 Quiet Advice

[Capper Al]

Hi Al,

Many years ago I was introduced to a long shot system called the "dirty shirt". You looked at all the DRF handicappers picks and if one had a horse in his top three that was not mentioned by any other, it was the"dirty shirt". Haven't thought about this for a long time and have never tested it out. If time permits, I'll check to see if this will improve my results.

Aner

You might just get one or two picks a day after reviewing a few tracks. Hope, you have the time. I'd like to know your results.

[Tape Reader]

Hi Al,

Many years ago I was introduced to a long shot system called the "dirty shirt". You looked at all the DRF handicappers picks and if one had a horse in his top three that was not mentioned by any other, it was the"dirty shirt". Haven't thought about this for a long time and have never tested it out. If time permits, I'll check to see if this will improve my results.

Aner

Over fifty years ago I worked as a messenger in a shop with an old Guy that was quite successful playing the horses. He was like a "Dutch Uncle" to me. One day he revealed one of his secrets. He called it the "One pick system."

He would use the old NY Daily Mirror newspaper, because they had the most handicapper boxes. He would then look for the 1 pick, or "Dirty Shirt" according to Aner, to bet with the bookie. I caught some big prices with that method over the years.

[JJMartin]

Hi, I developed an algorithm to try and capture when a high odds horse would appear in the top 3 selections. The sample Excel file shows the results for some races at Woodbine in 2012. My top selection based on a rating system beats the M/L top selection on average when looked at in aggregate across all tracks. I had to severely edit the file to conform to upload limits and protect information. I highlighted anything 14+ in the top 3. Could I get some feedback as to whether or not this performance in the Top 3 is desirable to anyone?

[Aner]

09/09/12

40 Bel 5--- #7 Barnards Galaxy
41 Bel 6--- #4 Freedom Rings-----placed
42 Bel 7--- #1 Wickapecko
43 Bel 7--- #6 Ol Donyo
44 Bel 9--- #2 Supsa
45 Bel 9--- #6 African Jazz
46 AP 2--- #4 Zap'em
47 AP 3--- #3 I Turned Outlaw-----showed
48 AP 6--- #4 Georgie My Boy
49 AP 8---#9 Gimme a Double
50 AP 9--- #6 Payton's Wildcat
51 Fpx 5--- #8 JM's Golden Legacy-----showed
52 Fpx 6---#6 Quiet Advice--------------2nd at 41:1



For the day: 0/13 = ($260) loss
Overall: 2/52 = ($288) loss

[bob60566]

I do use the Bris power at Montineer i have this year mostly went from six to one then use my three angles fall.Last week stated to use top three only as i only bet to win/show and most nights on fast track i bet about two per night maybe less.
I look for value when my angles fall in the top three power ratings It now sems to give me that comfort factor also began checking the Bris class top three in routes and Pace in sprints against my selections which have been cut down going to top three rankings prior to five.

[Aner]

09/15/12

53 Bel 1--- #1 Status Maker
54 Bel 2--- #7 Master Splash
55 Bel 6--- #3 Galaxy Jet
56 Bel 7--- #7 Thunder Chief
57 AP 3--- #4 Dakota Digger
58 AP 5--- #3 Son of Tiger
59 AP 8--- #5 Dame Marie
60 AP 11--- #8 Mr. Flexible
61 LaD 6--- #8 Forest Charm
62 LaD 8--- #7 Dance With Danny
63 LaD 10--- #12 Toasties Choice
64 GG 4--- #2 All My Friends

[Aner]

09/15/12

53 Bel 1--- #1 Status Maker
54 Bel 2--- #7 Master Splash
55 Bel 6--- #3 Galaxy Jet---won-------------------172
56 Bel 7--- #7 Thunder Chief
57 AP 3--- #4 Dakota Digger---showed
58 AP 5--- #3 Son of Tiger---won-----------------166
59 AP 8--- #5 Dame Marie
60 AP 11--- #8 Mr. Flexible
61 LaD 6--- #8 Forest Charm
62 LaD 8--- #7 Dance With Danny
63 LaD 10--- #12 Toasties Choice---won-------------86
64 GG 4--- #2 All My Friends


For the day: 3/12 = $204 profit
Overall: 5/64 = -$104 loss

[Aner]

09/16/12

65 AP 4--- #6 E. Grace
66 LaD 1--- #1 Summerinthetetons
67 LaD 6--- #7 Wakkiano
68 LaD 9--- #6 Lucyanna Rose
69 LaD 10---#11 Stella Hey Stella
70 GG 1--- #7 Dedifferent
71 GG 2--- #1 Cole is the Man
72 GG 3--- #1 Search Overload
73 GG 5--- #8 Zaree
74 GG 5--- #13 Sumart Tizzy
75 GG 8--- #6 Safe Word
76 GG 9--- #2 Touchdown Editta

[Jay Trotter]

Nice day Aner! :ThmbUp:

09/15/12

53 Bel 1--- #1 Status Maker
54 Bel 2--- #7 Master Splash
55 Bel 6--- #3 Galaxy Jet---won-------------------172
56 Bel 7--- #7 Thunder Chief
57 AP 3--- #4 Dakota Digger---showed
58 AP 5--- #3 Son of Tiger---won-----------------166
59 AP 8--- #5 Dame Marie
60 AP 11--- #8 Mr. Flexible
61 LaD 6--- #8 Forest Charm
62 LaD 8--- #7 Dance With Danny
63 LaD 10--- #12 Toasties Choice---won-------------86
64 GG 4--- #2 All My Friends


For the day: 3/12 = $204 profit
Overall: 5/64 = -$104 loss

[Aner]

09/16/12

65 AP 4--- #6 E. Grace
66 LaD 1--- #1 Summerinthetetons---placed
67 LaD 6--- #7 Wakkiano-------------showed
68 LaD 9--- #6 Lucyanna Rose
69 LaD 10---#11 Stella Hey Stella
70 GG 1--- #7 Bedifferent
71 GG 2--- #1 Cole is the Man
72 GG 3--- #1 Search Overload
73 GG 5--- #8 Zaree
xx GG 5--- #13 Sumart Tizzy------scratched
74 GG 8--- #6 Safe Word
75 GG 9--- #2 Touchdown Editta

For the day: 0/11 = -($220) loss
Overall: 5/75 = -($324) loss

[Aner]

09/22/12

76 Bel 1--- #7 Still Waiting
77 Bel 3--- #4 Call Up the Chief
78 Bel 4--- #9 Tazered
79 Bel 6--- #1 El Corriente
80 Bel 7--- #12 Two Moons
81 Bel 8--- #7 Arch Traveler
82 Bel 9--- #1 Roman Treasure
83 AP 2--- #1 Mr. Schnitzel
84 AP 8--- #4 Serrated Edge
85 AP 9--- #3 Eight Gauge
86 AP 11--- #4 Road to War
87 AP 11--- #8 Iolanda's Perfect
88 Mth 2--- #1 Billy Mar N Mr. S
89 Mth 4--- #7 Amazon Holly
90 Mth 6--- #4 Scudero
91 LaD 5--- #1 Cucos Gone to Reno
92 LaD 7--- #1Chief Scott
93 LaD 8--- #7 Art by Shalyn
94 LaD 9--- #9 Ide B Lyin'
95 LaD 10--- #5 Jo Jo Leg's
96 Fpx 3--- #8 Tropical Winds
97 Fpx 8--- #4 Looking For Candy
98 Fpx 9--- #1 Torreys K T M
99 Fpx 11--- #3 Madera Castana
100 Fpx 12--- #6 Mary's App

[Aner]

Well, I failed this test badly. Still think my longshot plays are profitable long term, but with such a low strike rate, it is not surprising to have streaks where a system is better or worse than expected. May revisit this after the Breeder's Cup.

09/22/12

76 Bel 1--- #7 Still Waiting
77 Bel 3--- #4 Call Up the Chief
78 Bel 4--- #9 Tazered
79 Bel 6--- #1 El Corriente
80 Bel 7--- #12 Two Moons
81 Bel 8--- #7 Arch Traveler----placed
82 Bel 9--- #1 Roman Treasure
83 AP 2--- #1 Mr. Schnitzel-------won-----70
84 AP 8--- #4 Serrated Edge
85 AP 9--- #3 Eight Gauge
86 AP 11--- #4 Road to War
87 AP 11--- #8 Iolanda's Perfect
88 Mth 2--- #1 Billy Mar N Mr. S
89 Mth 4--- #7 Amazon Holly
90 Mth 6--- #4 Scudero---------------won---184
91 LaD 5--- #1 Cucos Gone to Reno
92 LaD 7--- #1Chief Scott
x LaD 8--- #7 Art by Shalyn------scratched
93 LaD 9--- #9 Ide B Lyin'
94 LaD 10--- #5 Jo Jo Leg's
95 Fpx 3--- #8 Tropical Winds--------showed
xx Fpx 8--- #4 Looking For Candy---scratched
96 Fpx 9--- #1 Torreys K T M
xx Fpx 11--- #3 Madera Castana-----scratched
97 Fpx 12--- #6 Mary's App


For the day 2/22 = ($186) loss
Overall 7/97 = ($510) loss

[myhorse1]

is it possible that you gave up to soon?
you had originally planned on 100 races why not do the last 3.
i would hope that you could be pleasantly surprised.

best of luck