2 Grade 1's, but lot's of Bad form...

[sammy the sage]

most I've seen coming into 2 races like this...plus some clocker reports not good either..

Anybody like something in either the Forego or Woodward...

[Robert Fischer]

Haven't done serious capping yet, but what about Dominguez going to ride RULE in the Woodward?

Is that a negative for TRICKMEISTER? a positive for RULE? or just a change?

Trickmeister has only breezed once since the Whitney.

may not even be important with some of the more highly regarded horses, - just an interesting jockey switch.

I remember CEASE was fairly visually impressive vs Golden Gulch(an allowance type horse who ran back pretty well since the Cease race).

[burnsy]

Its a really, really nice card today. If Saratoga is going to have these 12 race cards......this is what they should look like. I think having the 11 and 12 race cards during the week with 7 races that are not bettable.....is a mistake. Data Link and Mucho Macho Man are pretty obvious. Jackson Bend may bounce back with a better trip and a target from Emcee, also gets a new rider. I may be wrong but Shackleford has yet to run good up here. I might take a chance with Queen'splatekitten with Data Link and Guys Reward. The underpart of this card is good too. Saratoga at its finest.

[sammy the sage]

The cards very good...just wondering who'll bounce back...and who won't in the big ones...

Several trainer's were saying it was THE heat...could be...

[raybo]

Looks like Rule in the Woodward. 3 others underneath: To Honor and Serve, Gourmet Dinner, and Trickmeister.

[sammy the sage]

Well won't have to guess on one of them...Shackelford scratched...looks like clocker way more accurate than trainer BS.!

[Robert Fischer]

Well won't have to guess on one of them...Shackelford scratched...looks like clocker way more accurate than trainer BS.!

was looking to bet against there, too bad.

[maclr11]

lets hear your picks sammy, or is all you want is our picks
woo me with your handicapping prowess

[Tom]

Looks like both Pletcher horse have the same pattern - good off the bench, come back dull. One of them might bounce back, but not interested in playing guessing games with older horses in TPs barn

MMM looks the best, but why bother betting at the odds - I can always take beer bottles back for the deposit if I need peanuts.

Gourmet Diner can't even win Gr3 races.
Trickmeister - last 4 decidedly worse than his first 5 - His Gr1 races suck. But can you really call this a Gr1 race?

Wonder if the Law and Order marathon is still on? :rolleyes:

[slew101]

Prado just killed me with that ride on Jersey Town. Why not wait for the top two to turn for home and angle out? Jersey Town has always been a one-run type. Should have at least gotten second. :bang:

Tagg having a brutal meet. Gets that ride in the 9th and his other horse left at the gate in the 8th and still gets 3rd.

Chasing Cease in the 10th and Sleepy Freud in the 11th.

[Tom]

Might as well bet Cease - like the track, has a late kick, and this race is lacing in quality.

:3: :7:
:4: at the odds, throw him in

[Tom]

Seriously lacking in quality.......

[slew101]

Not a bad run for Cease, might be worth a look down the road.

[cj]

Prado just killed me with that ride on Jersey Town. Why not wait for the top two to turn for home and angle out? Jersey Town has always been a one-run type. Should have at least gotten second. :bang:

Tagg having a brutal meet. Gets that ride in the 9th and his other horse left at the gate in the 8th and still gets 3rd.

Chasing Cease in the 10th and Sleepy Freud in the 11th.

I personally don't see anything bad about that ride. He was riding to win the race, not get you the place.

[raybo]

Looks like Rule in the Woodward. 3 others underneath: To Honor and Serve, Gourmet Dinner, and Trickmeister.

10th Race - Saratoga - Saturday, September 1st, 2012
Conditions: Woodward S. (Grade 1), Stakes, $750,000, Open 3 yo's & up, 1 1/8M, Dirt.
Off Time: 5:47 Start: 7 went. Good for all. Won driving. Track: Fast Weather: Cloudy 78o
Pedigree: 6 - To Honor and Serve, Bay Colt, 4, by Bernardini - Pilfer by Deputy Minister
Fractions: :233, :472, 1:104, 1:353, 1:482 (:23.70, :47.45, 1:10.83, 1:35.77, 1:48.56)
# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
6 To Honor and Serve Velazquez John R. 126 9.30 3.60 2.60
3 Mucho Macho Man Smith Mike E. 126 2.50 2.10
7 Cease Rosario Joel 126 2.90
Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$2 Pick 3 $62.00 4-6-6 (3 Correct) $274,813
$2 Daily Double $27.60 6-6 $180,584
$2 Exacta $22.40 6-3 $715,037
$2 Superfecta $349.00 6-3-7-4 $223,767
$2 Trifecta $88.00 6-3-7 $455,465
Owner: Live Oak Plantation
Trainer: William I. Mott
Breeder: Twin Creeks Farm, Larry Byer & RanchoSan Miguel (KY)
Also Ran: 4 - Trickmeister, 5 - Stay Thirsty, 1 - Rule, 2 - Gourmet Dinner

[cj]

No offense, but I don't think I'd be touting that as some sort of success.

[Itamaraca]

10th Race - Saratoga - Saturday, September 1st, 2012
Conditions: Woodward S. (Grade 1), Stakes, $750,000, Open 3 yo's & up, 1 1/8M, Dirt.
Off Time: 5:47 Start: 7 went. Good for all. Won driving. Track: Fast Weather: Cloudy 78o
Pedigree: 6 - To Honor and Serve, Bay Colt, 4, by Bernardini - Pilfer by Deputy Minister
Fractions: :233, :472, 1:104, 1:353, 1:482 (:23.70, :47.45, 1:10.83, 1:35.77, 1:48.56)
# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
6 To Honor and Serve Velazquez John R. 126 9.30 3.60 2.60
3 Mucho Macho Man Smith Mike E. 126 2.50 2.10
7 Cease Rosario Joel 126 2.90
Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$2 Pick 3 $62.00 4-6-6 (3 Correct) $274,813
$2 Daily Double $27.60 6-6 $180,584
$2 Exacta $22.40 6-3 $715,037
$2 Superfecta $349.00 6-3-7-4 $223,767
$2 Trifecta $88.00 6-3-7 $455,465
Owner: Live Oak Plantation
Trainer: William I. Mott
Breeder: Twin Creeks Farm, Larry Byer & RanchoSan Miguel (KY)
Also Ran: 4 - Trickmeister, 5 - Stay Thirsty, 1 - Rule, 2 - Gourmet Dinner

Looks like Rule in the Woodward. 3 others underneath: To Honor and Serve, Gourmet Dinner, and Trickmeister.


:lol: :lol:

[Tom]

Look in a mirror?

[grant miller]

nothing wrong with a winner:) :D :D :D :D

[raybo]

No offense, but I don't think I'd be touting that as some sort of success.

No offense taken, but did you, or any others, even mention the winner, especially as the 2nd graded contender? As you ought to know by now, if you've read any of my posts, my program spits out win contenders and we bet all that are 3/1 or higher odds. In high class races I combine our 2 grading systems, "FV", Final Velocity, and "IV", Initial Velocities.

[dnlgfnk]

You can understand where the critics are coming from, Ray. A devotee must have bet Rule as well, making it at best a one race 6-5 return, which most don't offer as proof of success.

A sincere question...would a follower be instructed to bet Gourmet and Trickmeister as well? Or use their judgement among the contenders? If the latter, it seems to me the technical approach is supposed to remove a substantial amount of subjective decisions.

The game is very tough, and I'm sincerely inquiring.

[cj]

No offense taken, but did you, or any others, even mention the winner, especially as the 2nd graded contender? As you ought to know by now, if you've read any of my posts, my program spits out win contenders and we bet all that are 3/1 or higher odds. In high class races I combine our 2 grading systems, "FV", Final Velocity, and "IV", Initial Velocities.

So, you bet all 4 horses (at a minimum) to get back 7 to 2 on one of them? Wouldn't you bet more on Rule? Otherwise, what is the point of a top choice?

I don't follow the program. Honestly, I thought you were a superfecta guy. I wrote up one race this weekend and I selected Emcee, but due to his lower than expected odds I didn't even bet him.

[raybo]

You can understand where the critics are coming from, Ray. A devotee must have bet Rule as well, making it at best a one race 6-5 return, which most don't offer as proof of success.

A sincere question...would a follower be instructed to bet Gourmet and Trickmeister as well? Or use their judgement among the contenders? If the latter, it seems to me the technical approach is supposed to remove a substantial amount of subjective decisions.

The game is very tough, and I'm sincerely inquiring.

The truth is, although some won't admit it, we never know which horse will win a specific race. In my opinion, if you're going to play win wagers, you will do better in the long run betting more than 1 horse to win. The problem is that when you bet more than 1 horse, and the winner is priced too low, even if you have it, you bet more than you make. If this happens enough times, you lose money long term as well. Thus, the reason for minimum odds/odds lines/dutching systems. These 3 things help you keep ahead of the bet/payout curve.

So, if we don't actually know, without a doubt, who will win a race, we bet more than 1 of our contenders, giving ourselves the chance to get the winner a good percentage of the time, coupled with a minimum odds requirement/odds line/dutching system, we have a better chance of showing a long term profit, when our top choices are not hitting often enough to carry the load by itself.

Do we bet our contenders when the public hates them, reflected by high final odds? In my opinion, yes we do, because the public is wrong many times, and misses those long priced winners the vast majority of the time. If you let the public convince you that a high odds horse doesn't have a chance of winning, then you might as well just bet favorites and lose like they do.

Those long priced horses hit often enough to have a huge impact on the bottom line. They can be the difference between you're making long term profit and losing long term.

[raybo]

So, you bet all 4 horses (at a minimum) to get back 7 to 2 on one of them? Wouldn't you bet more on Rule? Otherwise, what is the point of a top choice?

I don't follow the program. Honestly, I thought you were a superfecta guy. I wrote up one race this weekend and I selected Emcee, but due to his lower than expected odds I didn't even bet him.

No, we bet a maximum of 3 picks, at 3/1 or higher, or if we have 2 horses that grade very close we may bet 4 picks at 4/1 or higher.

I don't use a dutching system, although I don't discourage others from using one when it is possible to do so.

Just because a horse is the top pick doesn't mean that it is a low odds horse. It is a top pick because it survived the eliminations in the program and/or it grades the best. As I said in my last post, we don't know which horse will, absolutely, win. The top pick is just one of the contenders, and holds no more weight, regarding actual wagering, than the others. Any of the contenders could win, or all of them could lose. The key, in RS, is to have the winners often enough, that our average payout produces a long term profit.

Yes, I am a superfecta player. I created the RS program with the idea of increasing the number of winners I get in order to hit more of my superfectas. The win line has always been the weak link in my superfecta play, as I usually have enough coverage on the other 3 lines to get those horses. I found that, during testing, the RS program could be used profitably as a win only method at tracks that have higher average win payouts, while being used as a black box. Since many players are win only players, I decided to make the program available to them.

I, personally, use the program for my win line primarily, but also use it to help me fill out the rest of my superfecta tickets, by combining the rankings columns to get more rounded gradings/rankings for horses in the place, show, and 4th positions.

[Itamaraca]

I personally don't see anything bad about that ride. He was riding to win the race, not get you the place.

bump

[cj]

bump

I didn't say the horse couldn't run better with a different style. I said that on that day it was the best the jockey could do.

For the record, here is my analysis today:

This race is loaded with speed, but also lacks any real closers. The obvious horse is To Honor and Serve. He returned to form after a disappointing run in the Suburban. The other horse that interests us, and at a much larger price, is Jersey Town. He appears to be rounding back into form with improving figures, and is a G1 winner at the distance. A patient ride, unlike the one he was given in the Forego, gives him a shot.

Chew on that it a bit Mr. Bump.

[ArlJim78]

that bump was an epic fail, it blew up right in his face.:lol:

this guy is sure good for some laughs.