Aqueduct 5th 1/19

[fiveouttasix]

I am intrigued by a longshot in this race #8 Nypuddles M/L 30-1.
Positives (IMHO):
1) Third off layoff
2) Switch to Bug Rider
3) Decent 5f W.O.
4) Down 1 class
5) Excuse last race
6) Win over this Track
7) Trainer hit with a longsot yesterday

Negatives:
1) Needs race to set up to come from off the pace
2) Others with better numbers/form

I am not sure if I should pull the trigger (gun shy due to losing streak) If I was on a hot streak there is no question I would make the play.
Would appreciate any positive/negative input on this race from those who are also playing NY today. Thx.

[Suffolk OTB]

You definitely got a live longshot here...she made me some money on the inner last Winter.

This is a weak group of claimers, as only 3 of them have ran the BRIS par figure for this class. This is a field that a longshot could pop up.

In her last, not only did she break slow but she was drawn outside on a rail

She seems to prefer two turn races. Her three two turn races in the BRIS PPs last year were quite good---getting beat 9 and 7 lengths by Ravish Me and Moonlightandbeauty is no embarrassment.

Another negative - Track figures to have moisture in it--NYPUDDLES is not bred for wet, nor has she done well in her two wet track starts.

[pat]

dont be surprised if the track comes up fast its pretty cold and not expected to go above 30 degrees so that track will be frozen

[Suffolk OTB]

Sun should melt the track even if temps stay at 30.

I'm making teh same assumption for my driveway.

[IRISHLADSTABLE]

Let's see if Lou Meittinis can put another horse over today.
Yesterday he put over Givensilver at $44.20 .
Can lighting strike twice ?

Jimmy

[cj]

I think the 8 horse would need a lifetime best to win this. He should improve, as the pace has been slow his last couple races and he likes to come from behind, so I'd put him in the 2 and 3 slots. I would tend to lean towards the #3 horse in here if he is anywhere near that 20-1 ML, but I don't think I'll get it. I'd make 10-1 my cutoff for betting the 3.

[IRISHLADSTABLE]

12 MTP I'll go with 8/4,9 and a 4-9 ex Box

Jimmy

[fiveouttasix]

Great pick C.J.!!
As for my closer Nypuddles 1:16.4 says it all.

[IRISHLADSTABLE]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by cjmilkowski
I think the 8 horse would need a lifetime best to win this. He should improve, as the pace has been slow his last couple races and he likes to come from behind, so I'd put him in the 2 and 3 slots. I would tend to lean towards the #3 horse in here if he is anywhere near that 20-1 ML, but I don't think I'll get it. I'd make 10-1 my cutoff for betting the 3. [/QUOTE

Nice Call on the #3 Craig

Jimmy

[cj]

Thanks guys,

Tough to say if I'd have pulled the trigger seeing the horse was right around my cutoff, but seeing as I can't wager until I move into my house, I didn't have to decide :) I'm just trying to cap races to stay sharp.