I'm just sayin'....race 8 Del Mar right now

[senortout]

Baffert has one in for 20,000, a keeneland sales at 400 grand....first start...should nail this field, yet....don't ya think they woulda at least tried a straight maiden first...??????

Light Up, a Lemon Drop Kid, out of a Storm Cat mare!

[senortout]

that one had 'fire sale signs' where the hip numbers are normally pasted...
finished 2nd last I think.

[Stillriledup]

Does anyone know if Baffert is a + ROI for 2012? It doesnt seem like he would and normally his horses, especially firsters, are badly overbet. When i saw this 'entry' my first gut reaction was this horse can't run. With Baffert however, i'm wrong quite often, he seems like a hard guy to beat and if anyone could pop a horse like this in a claiming race, its him.

I could have sworn that someone on TVG mentioned that Baffert has a very low win pct with firsters in claiming races and i would have to imagine a losing ROI.

As handicappers, we all have 'types' of horses we like to bet and 'styles'. Betting a horse like this is not my own personal 'style' and its not the 'type' of horse i normally play, so, i think that when handicapping a horse like this one should ask "is this my style"?

[Greyfox]

I could have sworn that someone on TVG mentioned that Baffert has a very low win pct with firsters in claiming races and i would have to imagine a losing ROI.



Baffert wins 13% with debut maiden claimers.

This one had "sucker bet" written all over it.

A $400,000 purchase comes to it's first race for sale at $20,000? Baffert couldn't have placed it lower in Southern California's major ovals.

[plainolebill]

Nobody bit, no claims either.

[lamboguy]

Does anyone know if Baffert is a + ROI for 2012? It doesnt seem like he would and normally his horses, especially firsters, are badly overbet. When i saw this 'entry' my first gut reaction was this horse can't run. With Baffert however, i'm wrong quite often, he seems like a hard guy to beat and if anyone could pop a horse like this in a claiming race, its him.

I could have sworn that someone on TVG mentioned that Baffert has a very low win pct with firsters in claiming races and i would have to imagine a losing ROI.

As handicappers, we all have 'types' of horses we like to bet and 'styles'. Betting a horse like this is not my own personal 'style' and its not the 'type' of horse i normally play, so, i think that when handicapping a horse like this one should ask "is this my style"?
he beat me last week with one of his own in a mcl race. that horse would have been ok in the maiden allowance.

[Striker]

he beat me last week with one of his own in a mcl race. that horse would have been ok in the maiden allowance.
You talking about the horse that won for Md80000? The horse was only bought for $55K.

[Greyfox]

Nobody bit, no claims either.

Nobody bit?:rolleyes:
A lot of bettors took the bait.
He went off as the favorite, with slightly more wagering on him than #1Mary Helen's Storm who finished second behind 40-1 #10 My Dark Vada.

[plainolebill]

I wasn't clear - nobody claimed him. I sure as heck didn't bet him either. This just proves that there's a sucker born every minute.

[Uncle Salty]

Baffert wins 13% with debut maiden claimers.

Yes, and it always seems I bet against him whenever one of these wins come up...

:bang: :bang:

[lamboguy]

You talking about the horse that won for Md80000? The horse was only bought for $55K.what does the price that one pays for a horse have anything to do with how good the horse is, i know of a horse that was sold for $22,000 that won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.

[Striker]

what does the price that one pays for a horse have anything to do with how good the horse is, i know of a horse that was sold for $22,000 that won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.
Of course price doesn't show how good a horse is. The only reason I made mention of it was because of the horse the OP is talking about in this thread was bought for 400k and was now in a race for 20k, which is a completely negative move. While the horse that you were talking about was put in a race that showed much more confidence than the horse in for 20k.

[Greyfox]

what does the price that one pays for a horse have anything to do with how good the horse is, i know of a horse that was sold for $22,000 that won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.

I'll Have Another initially was sold for $11,000 by the original owner.
The second owner sold him for $35,000.
The rest is in the history books.

[delayjf]

what does the price that one pays for a horse have anything to do with how good the horse is,

True enough - but the fact that the owners are willing to eat 350 k (assuming the horse wins and is claimed) in his first start speaks volumes. I don't recall what Charismatic sold for, but I believe he ran in a 50K claiming race TWICE.