Keeneland Synthetic

[lamboguy]

i have heard a rumor that the synthetic experiment at Keeneland is about to end with the spring meet of 2013. this year some of the large trainers are not accepting the stalls that keeneland is offering them and staying at Belmont until the Gulfstream meet.

[Tom]

That would be great - back to dirt?
Sounds too good to be true.

[lamboguy]

That would be great - back to dirt?
Sounds too good to be true.don't hold your breath because Keeneland sells the stuff.

[ArlJim78]

don't hold your breath because Keeneland sells the stuff.
I doubt if that is much of a factor.
The market is not very big for this product.

[Al Gobbi]

don't hold your breath because Keeneland sells the stuff.

not anymore

http://www.drf.com/news/keeneland-martin-collins-dissolve-polytrack-company-partnership

Now that Nick Nicholson has retired (or is about to) one can see a few changes coming to Keeneland in the not to distant future.

[lamboguy]

not anymore

http://www.drf.com/news/keeneland-martin-collins-dissolve-polytrack-company-partnership

Now that Nick Nicholson has retired (or is about to) one can see a few changes coming to Keeneland in the not to distant future.thank you for that one, now i would say that the rumor i heard has a good shot to be truth. they are going to have a horrible meet this fall, so i guess they are going to have to do something to bring back the horses for the next year.

[gm10]

I hope not. The synthetic is just fine, the previous dirt surface wasn't.

[tbwinner]

Keeneland is the only track I have great success with polytrack or synthetic surface.

AP, PID, TP, DMR, HP I do not.

[maddog42]

I can't say I have been successful at kee but I have hit a few monsters.

[gm10]

Keeneland is the only track I have great success with polytrack or synthetic surface.

AP, PID, TP, DMR, HP I do not.

The one I have the least luck with is Presque Isle - maybe I should just treat that one as a dirt track.

Turfway and Keeneland are fairly consistent once a pattern has set in, in the case of Turfway it's definitely weather related (cold weather = speed bias), for Keeneland it seems to be the same for the entire meeting but not the same for every meeting.

In general, tactical speed and jockey intelligence are important factors on any synthetic surface imo. Neither of those factors is easy to put into numbers, it requires a bit more reading between the lines !

[gm10]

The one I have the least luck with is Presque Isle - maybe I should just treat that one as a dirt track.

Turfway and Keeneland are fairly consistent once a pattern has set in, in the case of Turfway it's definitely weather related (cold weather = speed bias), for Keeneland it seems to be the same for the entire meeting but not the same for every meeting.

In general, tactical speed and jockey intelligence are important factors on any synthetic surface imo. Neither of those factors is easy to put into numbers, it requires a bit more reading between the lines !

it'a funny because Lingfield Park in England has a similar bias to Turfway's
=> during cold weather, the surface becomes highly conductive to speed, whereas the normal state of affairs is that you can make up a decent amount of ground in the stretch

not exactly sure why, I think you need a Phd in polymers for that!

[BMustang]

I would certainly welcome a change back to "Racing As It Was Meant To Be."

[Itamaraca]

I do well there. The AW track is a little bit less beatable than the turf course. But the turf course is very beatable, so it's all good.

I don't see how going back to BULL RING racing on the dirt track would be an upgrade. Sucks that the AW whiners just won't go away. But, I suppose, they were all winners before AWS came around and will go back to being winners when all these tracks return to dirt. :sleeping:

[nearco]

I would certainly welcome a change back to "Racing As It Was Meant To Be."

On grass, over hill and dale?
I'm all down with that.

[Robert Fischer]

keeneland (like other tracks) seems to have shifting bias.


helps if you play it day to day to notice if speeds or closers are doing well.

not sure if the schedule for the sales schedule has anything to do with track maintenance or not. They have pre sale under-tack shows where 2yos may run a furlong under 10 flat.

[PhantomOnTour]

they are changing because their major "dirt" races like the Blue Grass and the Spinster aren't the huge draw they used to be. The Alcibiades and Juddmonte Futurity (is that what it's called?) may suffer the same fate.
Their meets are perfectly scheduled as preps for the major Triple Crown race day stakes and the BrCup, but none of the above are run on synthetic tracks.

[cj]

they are changing because their major "dirt" races like the Blue Grass and the Spinster aren't the huge draw they used to be. The Alcibiades and Juddmonte Futurity (is that what it's called?) may suffer the same fate.
Their meets are perfectly scheduled as preps for the major Triple Crown race day stakes and the BrCup, but none of the above are run on synthetic tracks.

Keeneland or not, some of these races would have trouble holding on to the G1 status they enjoy now if the races remain on polytrack.

[Striker]

Their meets are perfectly scheduled as preps for the major Triple Crown race day stakes and the BrCup, but none of the above are run on synthetic tracks.
Don't you think the trainers nowadays like the 4 week rule, if not longer, instead of racing 3 weeks out from the derby?

[PhantomOnTour]

There are other big races on Derby day, and the Kee meet is perfect for Preakness day activity with the 5wks or so rest

[duncan04]

keeneland (like other tracks) seems to have shifting bias.


helps if you play it day to day to notice if speeds or closers are doing well.

not sure if the schedule for the sales schedule has anything to do with track maintenance or not. They have pre sale under-tack shows where 2yos may run a furlong under 10 flat.

I was there a few times when they had the pre sale under tack shows. It seems the rail was lightening quick. It was like that for live racing later that day

[Paseana]

they are changing because their major "dirt" races like the Blue Grass and the Spinster aren't the huge draw they used to be. The Alcibiades and Juddmonte Futurity (is that what it's called?) may suffer the same fate.
Their meets are perfectly scheduled as preps for the major Triple Crown race day stakes and the BrCup, but none of the above are run on synthetic tracks.

This touches on the main reason, I believe, that Keeneland might consider returning to a dirt surface, given that there's no longer a proprietary connection between them and "Polytrack".

I wish I had a written source to link to, which I don't, but a while back, Steve Byk (ATR) did an interview with some kind of representative of the AGSC, and the gentleman indicated that Keeneland's polytrack GI's are on a "watch list"......meaning that they are in at least some small danger of being downgraded.

Dullahan's respectable 4th in the BC Juvy after winning the Futurity at Keeneland, his good 3rd in the Derby after winning the Bluegrass, and Evening Jewel's nose loss in the KY Oaks after winning the Ashland all certainly help the cause. But all three of those return races happened at Churchill Downs, which is developing quite a reputation, for whatever reason, for being quite friendly to turf and/or synthetic horses. Evening Jewel finished a decent 3rd in the F&M Sprint in her only other attempt on natural dirt, and THAT was at Churchill Downs. Dullahan has never won a race on anything but polytrack, and his dirt attempts anyplace else but Churchill have been pretty dismal.

Keeneland installed the polytrack surface in the summer of 2006, shortly after Sinister Minister's ridiculous wire job in the Bluegrass with a 116 BSF. In the six Fall meetings since then, the Alcibiades is kind of a mixed bag and I have no real feeling for that one, but the Spinster is the one that's suffered the most. The polytrack surface, in my opinion, has rendered that race virtually irrelevant

All six winners of the Spinster from 2006 to 2011 were turf horses, pure and simple. I don't know how many of them even ran in the BC Distaff, but there were only two that had any impact in that race. Mushka did finish 2nd to Life Is Sweet in 2009, but that was on Santa Anita Pro-Ride. Asi Siempre won the first polytrack Spinster in 2006 and finished 2nd in the Distaff, only to be DQ'd back to 4th (I think). That race was run at Churchill Downs.......coincidence?

I think the AGSC operates under the umbrella of the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association (TOBA). The Keeneland meets have been untouchable since they went to a synthetic surface, while the historic Hopeful at Saratoga was downgraded to GII last year. There's no excuse for it, and it's time to pay the piper.

Some of Keeneland's main track GI races are in danger of being downgraded. I'm thinking that they may be considering returning to a dirt surface.

Returning to relevance?.........

[PaceAdvantage]

Sucks that the AW whiners just won't go away. But, I suppose, they were all winners before AWS came around and will go back to being winners when all these tracks return to dirt. :sleeping:Wait, are you saying a racetrack is actually listening to its customer base, who for the most part, would rather wager on a dirt Keeneland than an AWS Keeneland?

I don't buy that for a second...so don't blame the "whiners" for this one.

And for the record, I haven't seen much if any AWS whining on here for quite a while...I think even the whiners know AWS in the USA is an irrelevant surface, even when featured by a relevant track.

[Valuist]

I hope not. The synthetic is just fine, the previous dirt surface wasn't.

I maintain the issue wasn't the dirt. Just before they put the polytrack in, they reconfigured the main track. The distance remained at 1 1/16th miles but I believe the main changes were changing the amount of banking to the turns, and the sharpness of the turns.

[Valuist]

Wonder if Arlington will be far behind. When they put Poly in for the 2007 meet they kept saying they wanted to be like Keeneland, their surface was going to be just like Keeneland. Blah, blah, blah. 5 years later as interest has waned noticeably in Arlington's product, one has to wonder if they will consider a return to dirt.

5 years from now, how many tracks will be synthetic? Turfway probably would, and should be. Maybe WO and PID. Makes no sense for the California tracks.

[Al Gobbi]

Wonder if Arlington will be far behind. When they put Poly in for the 2007 meet they kept saying they wanted to be like Keeneland, their surface was going to be just like Keeneland. Blah, blah, blah. 5 years later as interest has waned noticeably in Arlington's product, one has to wonder if they will consider a return to dirt.

5 years from now, how many tracks will be synthetic? Turfway probably would, and should be. Maybe WO and PID. Makes no sense for the California tracks.

Turfway and Preque Isle might be done within 5 years, and I know Woodbine's Poly does not drain well when their is a very heavy rainstorm.

[burnsy]

Gee, i did not see this coming...........oh wait a minute i was saying this in 2006 when it opened. Man imitating nature....we can make a "better" plastic dirt....yeah ok, lol. It started out fine, but once people saw how it works.......many people including myself....hardly want to bet on it. Have not bet 1 race at Del Mar this year....used to hang around Saratoga and bet there twice a week. Its not whining, its called knowing the limitations of man trying to "out do" mother nature. Yeah and that astro turf they use for football and baseball ......thats way safer....no one gets hurt on that either....lol....lol...lol. Whats turf toe? Oh, its just a new injury related to astro turf....lol. Someone saw the racing industry coming and they bought this crap. At a time when racing didn't need any more problems or experiments....am i surprised that some tracks are ripping the crap out....not in the least. Instead of accepting reality.....sports by nature are risky and at times dangerous......ON ANY SURFACE!.....theres always some one that thinks man can do better than nature...of course theres a fortune to be made once you sell this to the rubes that buy in. heres one, lets run on feather pillows...it will be safer. horses have only been running on grass and dirt since the ice age ended......but we can do better....lol....lol..They were never meant to run full speed on fake garbage.....but hey, its safer...lol. Now, lets talk about that bridge i'm selling....it will connect churchill to keenland...lol...lol...lol

[Dahoss9698]

I think it's important to remember that there have been no decisions on this and this thread is all based on rumors someone sort of heard.

[classhandicapper]

i have heard a rumor that the synthetic experiment at Keeneland is about to end with the spring meet of 2013. this year some of the large trainers are not accepting the stalls that keeneland is offering them and staying at Belmont until the Gulfstream meet.

Is that because of the surface or the higher casino subsidized purses at Belmont?

[duncan04]

Turfway and Preque Isle might be done within 5 years, and I know Woodbine's Poly does not drain well when their is a very heavy rainstorm.

Turfway would keep it to prevent cancelling race days due to the winters we get around here. Before poly we had several race days cancelled due to the track freezing and unthawing unevenly.

[duncan04]

Is that because of the surface or the higher casino subsidized purses at Belmont?


My guess is the second part. Gotta go for the $$

[Al Gobbi]

My guess is the second part. Gotta go for the $$

while it lasts. Cuomo and his cronies are going to probably start raking it out once they have complete control of the board soon.

[Al Gobbi]

The rumor now (https://twitter.com/SusanCloos/status/299268822098116608) is that Keeneland is likely go back to dirt for the fall meet, with an announcement regarding the possible switch during the spring meet.

[Stillriledup]

NICE!

[JustRalph]

That's the only way to get me back.

[Stillriledup]

That's the only way to get me back.

You and plenty of others.

[CincyHorseplayer]

That's the only way to get me back..

Overall I have hated that place since it's been synthetic.There is no such thing as a probable pace!And I have always loved Keeneland and still have gone,but with small interest in racing

[Tom]

I never cared for KEE when it was dirt, but at least I could figure out why I lost! :D

[wisconsin]

This is a great change of thought. I never liked the stuff, and hardly ever go to Arlington anymore, unless it's a card with 5 turf races, or PA day.

Lots of strangely run races at Kee and AP.

[RunForTheRoses]

I don't know if I like the Polycrap at KEE but the dirt strip there was so extremely speed favoring that it wasn't a favorite of mine either.

[Greyfox]

I like Keeneland's poly. Very fair.

[lamboguy]

I like Keeneland's poly. Very fair.why of course you would!

[DeltaLover]

Synthetic tracks were introduced as the next new thing in horse racing during the last decade. Most of us who have been in this game for long time, did not like the idea. We opposed the innovation thinking that it was going to invalidate all our knowledge and experience we had gained after playing the game for so long, viewing synthetics as a completely new thing.

The industry 'experts' multiplied the public sentiment, taking advantage of it by writing whole books on the topic while it became the topic of several conference speeches.

I think the subject of synthetic tracks have been exaggerated, magnifying its differences to a traditional dirt surface without sufficient evidence other than 'opinions' expressed by horseman or public handicappers. Much Ado About Nothing..

Please don't take me wrong.. Of course there are some differences between the surfaces as there could be found some horse showing preference to one or the other; however this is not very different from the difference between Aqueduct inner track to Santa Anita's main (dirt) track.

Bottom line is I no longer pay much attention to synthetic versus dirt except some very special cases ( Dullahan for example is one of the few of them).

[duncan04]

Wow if it is true its the best kept secret. Everyone I've talked to hasn't heard anything

[tbwinner]

Keeneland pres just released statement that they have "no immediate plans to change it"

http://www.keeneland.com/racing/statement-regarding-keeneland%E2%80%99s-polytrack-surface-president-and-ceo-bill-thomason

[Al Gobbi]

Keeneland pres just released statement that they have "no immediate plans to change it"

http://www.keeneland.com/racing/statement-regarding-keeneland%E2%80%99s-polytrack-surface-president-and-ceo-bill-thomason

not exactly a rining endorsement about long-term polytrack.

[Sysonby]

Actually, if you read the whole thing, it pretty much is a ringing endorsement. Seriously, their handles are up with synthetic, which is what has been reported at pretty much every place they put in synthetic, why would they change? Also, re safety of horses and riders with synthetic, there is statistical information kept by, among others, the Jockey Club that indicates pretty clearly that synthetic is safer. This is not just someone's opinion.

Take a look at the rate that horse deaths have gone up at Santa Anita since they went back to dirt. If people like the sport, we should be trying not to turn off the public by disgraceful safety records.

[letswastemoney]

The reason field sizes go up in synthetic races is that dirt horses have no choice but to run in synthetic races and turf horses will fill up the fields.

[rrpic6]

I'm glad they are keeping Polytrack. The Presque Isle meet ends a few weeks before the Keeneland fall meet. Those shippers are overlooked every year, some really take to the similar surface and many win at large odds.

RR

[Not4Love]

Actually, if you read the whole thing, it pretty much is a ringing endorsement. Seriously, their handles are up with synthetic, which is what has been reported at pretty much every place they put in synthetic, why would they change? Also, re safety of horses and riders with synthetic, there is statistical information kept by, among others, the Jockey Club that indicates pretty clearly that synthetic is safer. This is not just someone's opinion.

Take a look at the rate that horse deaths have gone up at Santa Anita since they went back to dirt. If people like the sport, we should be trying not to turn off the public by disgraceful safety records.


I disagree that it is safer for the jockeys. Remember ? Renee Douglas, Michael straight, Julie bremo, Bonnie Castaneda, and another rider paralyised in northern California. All these riders suffered career ending injuries on the synthetic . The horses don't break down because they don't "put out" like they do on a "natural surface. Take a look at how horses gallop out after a race on poly. They can't Waite to pull up.

[Al Gobbi]

The reason field sizes go up in synthetic races is that dirt horses have no choice but to run in synthetic races and turf horses will fill up the fields.


Prior to the Poly they would rarely come off turf. Now all it takes is a little bit of rain and they come off (except the stakes).

[Hosshead]

Health of the Jockeys.
What about the jockeys (and horses) breathing bits of plastic ?

[Valuist]

I guarantee Rene Douglas will tell you Poly isn't safer than real dirt. And like was mentioned earlier, breathing those fibers in cannot be good for either the riders or horses.

It makes sense for Turfway to have it, so they can run thru the winter. But that's about it. Its ridiculous to have it at summer tracks like Del Mar and Arlington.

[Sysonby]

Putting in link to three years of data from the Equine Injury Database

http://www.jockeyclub.com/pdfs/supplementaltables_eid.pdf

These are the stats

[Sysonby]

More stats, this time Santa Anita because it switched to synthetic and switched back to dirt so you can see the change in injury rate

http://www.jockeyclub.com/pdfs/eid/SantaAnita.pdf

[classhandicapper]

I'm not a huge fan of synthetic racing because it complicates my life as a gambler and I'm not as good on it, but I think the evidence is pretty strong that it's safer for the horses (and jockeys as a result) and there is a place for it in the sport.

It's not even as bad for handicapping purposes as it was in the beginning. Most of the tracks aren't nearly as slow and bad for speed as a few of them were initially.

[Stillriledup]

More stats, this time Santa Anita because it switched to synthetic and switched back to dirt so you can see the change in injury rate

http://www.jockeyclub.com/pdfs/eid/SantaAnita.pdf

Seems to not specifically mention that Santa Anita's increased fatality rate could be due to most of those horses having raced the previous 8 months on plastic and rubber tracks. Horses use different muscles and their bodies are conditioned to run a certain way on plastic....when they switch to the dirt and then break down, i'd pretty much say that the constant switching in surfaces is the culprit and not necessarily the dirt.

How can we know if these stats would all be the same if Dmr and Hollywood had the same exact surface as SA?

[Sysonby]

We don't, and your point about switching surfaces is a good one. That is a risk factor.

However, the sheer breadth of the evidence on synthetics vs dirt re catastrophic breakdowns is very difficult to deny. We're not talking about a small study based on a few starts, this is a four year study based on tens of thousands of starts.

I am also not saying that dirt surfaces can't be made safer for the horses and thus the jockeys. I think more work needs to be done in that regard and there are definitely dirt surfaces now that are safer than others.

[Sysonby]

One last point in relation to Santa Anita, as the new injury rates when they switched back to dirt are actually in line or even a little lower than their previous injury rates on dirt, this would suggest that switching surface is not the major factor at play here.

[burnsy]

I'm not a huge fan of synthetic racing because it complicates my life as a gambler and I'm not as good on it, but I think the evidence is pretty strong that it's safer for the horses (and jockeys as a result) and there is a place for it in the sport.

It's not even as bad for handicapping purposes as it was in the beginning. Most of the tracks aren't nearly as slow and bad for speed as a few of them were initially.
I agree 100%, but i still avoid them. i don't understand how the handle does not suffer. i know alot of other people that won't bet the poly tracks. when keenland is open i bet the grass races and very few poly races if at all. many races end up with a mad scramble to the wire with horses winning you could never like in a million years. many of the stakes races are meaningless when horses move on to other tracks. racing is always dangerous and dirt racing is faster so its even more so...but i'm glad there are always dirt tracks running just the same. Del Mar is another one. i have not made a bet there in like 2 years.

[Stillriledup]

One last point in relation to Santa Anita, as the new injury rates when they switched back to dirt are actually in line or even a little lower than their previous injury rates on dirt, this would suggest that switching surface is not the major factor at play here.

A lot of it has to do with compromised horses getting past the morning vet checks. Perfectly sound horses don't break down too often, its mostly the ones who have underlying problems....these tracks need to do a better job at not letting the unsound ones race....of course, since its an owners and trainers game and not a tracks or bettors game, its easier said than done.

[Sysonby]

A lot of it has to do with compromised horses getting past the morning vet checks. Perfectly sound horses don't break down too often, its mostly the ones who have underlying problems....these tracks need to do a better job at not letting the unsound ones race....of course, since its an owners and trainers game and not a tracks or bettors game, its easier said than done.

I couldn't agree more. Many, if not most, horses suffering catastrophic breakdowns have been shown to have pre-existing injuries. The only thing I'm not sure of is whether microfracturing which is a natural part of the conditioning process is being read as a pre-existing injury by the individuals doing the necropsies.

[Stillriledup]

I couldn't agree more. Many, if not most, horses suffering catastrophic breakdowns have been shown to have pre-existing injuries. The only thing I'm not sure of is whether microfracturing which is a natural part of the conditioning process is being read as a pre-existing injury by the individuals doing the necropsies.

Thanks.

Its unfortunate that from a financial aspect that some horses arent 'worth' stopping on for 6 months or a year, its a money losing proposition to nurse a 10k claimer back to health on a long extended break, this is part of the game and as part of the game, they just send them out into battle while not 100 percent. I'm not sure how this part of the game can ever get fixed.

[Valuist]

People forget about the unintended consequences of synthetic racing; a meet like the fall CD meet is mostly unplayable. You have lots of 2 year old races, and most of the runners have only run at Kee, AP and/or TP so they have no real dirt form to go on.

[CincyHorseplayer]

People forget about the unintended consequences of synthetic racing; a meet like the fall CD meet is mostly unplayable. You have lots of 2 year old races, and most of the runners have only run at Kee, AP and/or TP so they have no real dirt form to go on.

Man I could not agree more.I can get picky and find some plays in there but it's a mess and worse,sorting is out is a friggin headache,even to look at those PP's!Other than turf races I don't play Kentucky at all anymore after Ellis during the year.

[proximity]

i'm no fan of synthetic tracks, but i vote no more changes.

you start to get some reliable data for pars and long term track bias and then they want to change the track yet again?? enough.

and why keep digging up a main track that only races six weeks a year and schedules lots of turf races?

[letswastemoney]

I would love for the Breeders' Cup to be on synthetic again.

People say not to worry about the differences between dirt and synthetic when handicapping. Those are the handicappers I avoid like the plague.

Keeneland is too small I hear, but it would be a betting dream if the Breeders' Cup were held at Keeneland or Del Mar.

[Sysonby]

I love handicapping Del Mar especially.

[Valuist]

People say not to worry about the differences between dirt and synthetic when handicapping. Those are the handicappers I avoid like the plague.



I don't hear handicappers saying that. I hear them saying the difference between dirt and Poly is like night and day.

[Tom]

I would love for the Breeders' Cup to be on synthetic again.

People say not to worry about the differences between dirt and synthetic when handicapping. Those are the handicappers I avoid like the plague.

Keeneland is too small I hear, but it would be a betting dream if the Breeders' Cup were held at Keeneland or Del Mar.

The only automatic throw-outs for the BC at SA on poly were ANY dirt horses. Curlin underlined that fact. Not a single dirt horse won any of the races for four days - all came off poly last out.

[lamboguy]

i heard today that the management at Keeneland wants the horsemen out of the place by May 8 to work on the track to bring back the regular dirt.

[cj]

i heard today that the management at Keeneland wants the horsemen out of the place by May 8 to work on the track to bring back the regular dirt.

Heard today? Didn't you post the exact same thing at least a week ago?

[lamboguy]

Heard today? Didn't you post the exact same thing at least a week ago?
sorrry i don't think so

[Leparoux]

^^ Is there any truth to that?

[lamboguy]

^^ Is there any truth to that?i think Keeneland has officially announced today that they are going back to dirt. it sure as hell took them awhile

[duncan04]

i think Keeneland has officially announced today that they are going back to dirt. it sure as hell took them awhile


They also said that there was a chance to go back to synthetic if the new surface isn't as safe as poly

[classhandicapper]

Was the cost announced?

[Sysonby]

To me, this is a step backward. Guess I'll wait and see what happens.

[Grits]

http://www.drf.com/news/sun-sets-synthetic-era

(Lengthy, but well covered.)

http://www.drf.com/news/hovdey-casner-sees-keeneland-switch-synthetic-track-backsliding

(Adding another viewpoint from Bill Casner.)

[Tom]

I hope Woodbine stays poly - it is my best track, hands down.