Mohawk Metro Field W/Odds

[Zapper]

Any picks based on last weeks showings in the elims

8 -- Pace, purse $1,000,000 (EX, P3, SU, TR, Z4) D-METRO - FINAL - 2 YEAR OLDS Post time: 09:57 P.M. Lasix: 05:42 P.M.

Horses Entered: 12
1 Johny Rock A Miller J Butenschoen 8-1
2 Odds On Equuleus J Campbell R Schadt 7-2
3 Apprentice Hanover J Jamieson B Wallace 3-1
4 Captaintreacherous Ti Tetrick T Alagna 9-5
5 Captive Audience R Pierce C Johnson 12-1
6 Dress The Part Ra Waples R Mcintosh 15-1
7 Rockin Amadeus Y Gingras J Takter 15-1
8 Fool Me Once S Filion M Austin 20-1
9 Wake Up Peter S Zeron T Alagna 20-1
10 Vegas Vacation B Sears C Coleman 10-1

[redshift1]

On TVG this Saturday, Captaintreacherous listed as 9/5 on the morning line, have yet to see the PP's but 9/5 seems way off.

[Zapper]

The horse is 9/5 morning line for the final.Do you think the price should be shorter.

[Zapper]

CanadianSportsman did a nice piece on The Metro (http://www.canadiansportsman.ca/userfiles/file/Metro-CPD%20Handicapping%20Section.pdf)

[Sinner369]

On TVG this Saturday, Captaintreacherous listed as 9/5 on the morning line, have yet to see the PP's but 9/5 seems way off.

"Off" you mean too high or too low?.................it's a very competitive field and like Tim Tetrick says if it's close..............whoever gets the trip wins it!!!

[redshift1]

Odds on is my guess his Meadowlands win was amazing when he set the track record for two year olds plus his form is still solid. Also heavily bet last week although he dodged the main competition. What should his odds be ?

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[melman]

I make Captaintreacherous 2/5. Only a horror trip gets him beat IMO.

[Oskar]

First ofall, isn’t it a shame that in this day of sire stakes dominated, Balkanized racing, the best freshman pacers from the US and Canada are just recently, in late August/September, getting together for the first time.



Last year A Rocknroll Dance put himself on the map with a WR equaling 49.1 win in his Metro elimination. It was his third lifetime start, and first win. The favorite, Kingcole with Luc, provided the hot pace for the 20-1 outsider. Speed Again, who has been no factor at three, was the favorite. A Rocknroll Dance is the only top tier colt to emerge from that field. Longshot, Mystician, won the 2010 edition over Feel Like A Fool and Great Vintage. The 2012 Metro features a better cast of characters than those two races.



While Captaintreacherous, a 250K yearling purchase, who recently became the first two-year-old to ever pace a sub 50 mile at The Big M, is already being touted as the next super horse; this is no walkover. Actually the greatest ever colts and fillies of the past couple of years haven’t done very well. After his open length 49 win in last year’s BC, Sweet Lou was expected to come back and rewrite the record books, but he hasn’t won an open stakes race this year.Warrawee Needy was another can’t miss candidate, but he hasn’t won any kind of race at all this year. Peelers won her first twenty-one starts, and was on her way to immortality, when cardiac issues rendered her mortal. American Jewell looked invincible until Big McDeal beat her in Lexington in October. And this year, after an excellent run, Major Look beat her in the Shalee, Bettor B Lucky in the EBC and Romantic Moment in the Valley Forge. Next super-colt/super-filly, please. Last year Big Jim was going to be the best ever, but he failed to win an open at three and retired early due to faulty ankles. Captaintreacherous will be the celebrated choice in a very good Metro field, but for his sake, let's avoid burying him in unrealistic expectations going forward.



Apprentice Hanover and Odds On Equuleus each won divisions of the Nassagaweya and Metro eliminations, just like the Captain did. Apprentice Hanover, a 90K yearling, who was a private purchase after his second start, was especially impressive in his two recent wins over this track, and in several respects gets bracketed with Captaintreacherous, rather than Equuleus.



Captaintreacherous and Apprentice are accorded elite status for several reasons: they are both from the first crop of SBSW; they are driven by Tetrick and Jamieson, respectively,two top players, both in their prime; Captain is owned by Brittany Farms and partners and trained by Tony Alagna, while Apprentice is owned by Brad Grant and trained by Ben Wallace. Everything sits on the top shelf—there are no weak links.



Equuleus, who is named after Ptolemy’s little horse or foal constellation, is an Art Major colt, trained by Robin Schadt, owned by Odds On Racing and driven by JohnCampbell. The latter is a controversial figure of late, with some believing he is over the hill and routinely tossing anything he drives, while others are steadfast in their defense of his talent and judgment. Art Major, the sire of Art Official—who upset SBSW in the Meadowlands Pace—as well as Santana Blue Chip and Hypnotic Blue Chip, has been very successful in NY, but nobody has associated the word super with him. Also, Equuleus had to work a little harder through the stretch last week than the Captain and Apprentice did.



The issue is that the drivers of the three top choices in the race all prefer to let things get sorted out at the start, and then brush to the front or join the flow and explode out of it at the right time. Johnny Rock, the winner of the NJSS final, should take care of the opening quarter. He has plenty of gate speed and Andy Miller likes to hustle him out of there. Miller did that last week and was more than happy to give it up to Tetrick and Captaintreacherous approaching the half. I imagine Miller will do the same this week: blast out of there and look for a pocket trip behind one of the big three.



Last week in his elimination, and the week before in the Nassagaweya, Jamieson left for position with Apprentice and jumped to the top between the three-eighths and the half. Maybe Tetrick figures Captain is the best, so he’ll follow JJ from the get go and spend the last half on the outside, pressuring Apprentice. If JJ makes the top, I can’t see him letting the Captain go.



What about Campbell? He may cling to Johny Rock at the start and jump that one before JJ and TT move, hence avoiding being buried on the rail when the two choices come after Johny Rock.



Or will Tetrick, or Jamieson, decide to pay the price out of the gate, and say “come and get me, suckers.”



I like Captain Treacherous here.



Aside from the top three, Vegas Vacation and Johny Rock are both good colts.



The Captain will be odds on, probably no better than 3/5 while Apprentice will be 8/5, 9/5, something like that.



Other thoughts on the race?

[redshift1]

I can't remember if was Tom Ainslie but someone once mentioned "Bret Hanover was a bargain at 2/5 at some point during his winning streak". Not that CT is in BH's class but I'm always looking for the next great champion. Way to early to tell on CT but the speculation is fun. I'll say 3/5 only because there is some solid competition.

Let's hope TVG doesn't cut the race short for a $50 claiming race from Los Al.
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[mrroyboy]

I agree with all. But I think that race is more competitive that we think. Captian T is not a lock

[Race Promoter]

This is a nice review and handy cheat sheet!

Thanks Zapper

[melman]

The Captain wins again. Yet another mile under 1:50 for a 2 yr old. Pays about as expected at $3.70. Not much of a betting race but fun to watch anyway.

[redshift1]

Much closer than I thought and took some very late money.