The hype 2yo of 2012- Archwarrior

[andtheyreoff]

Worth noting that on Thursday at Saratoga, the hype 2yo of 2012, Archwarrior is entered to make his debut in race 3. It'll be his third attempt at getting into the gate; his first time he was scratched because of track condition, the second time was because he was on the AE list.

He's trained by Pletcher, ridden by Johnny V. His sire is Arch, out of a Seeking the Gold mare. He was purchased for a pretty penny at the OBS March sale this year, $375,000. The two workouts that have caused the hype (I assume) are the ones on July 28 (5F in :58.2) and August 5 (5F in :58.3). Most recently, on August 26, he worked 4F in :48.1.

I have little doubt that, like many before him, he will win this race easily, get everyone really excited, win a few more races (maybe even the BC Juvenile) and then fizzle out. After all, the last time the Derby winner broke their maiden on dirt at the Spa was Winning Colors- back in 1987!

Anyway, he's one to watch. Coupled with a horse named Tizracer, who was an unimpressive 4th in his July 28 debut.

[Striker]

The two workouts that have caused the hype (I assume) are the ones on July 28 (5F in :58.2) and August 5 (5F in :58.3). Most recently, on August 26, he worked 4F in :48.1.

He outworked Stay Thirsty(1:01 and 3/5) on 8/12 going 5f in 1:01 and 2/5.

[the little guy]

The manner in which he has worked has wowed a number of very astute people. It's hype by its very nature but it's not unfounded.

[pele polo]

Should be noted that those bullet 5/8ths moves were on the main track and not the training track. 58 3/5ths on the Oklahoma would be astonishing.

[classhandicapper]

He outworked Stay Thirsty(1:01 and 3/5) on 8/12 going 5f in 1:01 and 2/5.

I'd say that's worthy of some enthusiasm.

[Tom]

The fastest horse in the world.....since the Green Monkey!
:eek:

[FantasticDan]

Would it surprise anyone if he won by 10 lengths? Probably not. Would it surprise anyone if he finished 6th, beaten by 10 lengths? Probably not. God knows we see many 2yo firsters with strong worktabs do likewise at SAR.

So either way you're covered. ;)

[horses4courses]

I expect #6 Transparent to run big.
Throw out that last race in the slop......

[OTM Al]

I expect #6 Transparent to run big.......

I like him as well and think the 5 and part of the 2 entry has a shot. He may well air on the field but since he's never raced and will have a lot bet on him, it's worth taking a stab against

[the little guy]

The fastest horse in the world.....since the Green Monkey!
:eek:


Everyone around the racetrack knew the Green Monkey couldn't run when he started.

Believe me, I'm not betting Archwarrior.....but I'm not betting against him.

[lamboguy]

i will bet him if he is 1/2

[lamboguy]

i doubt you get 1-5 this afternoon, might as well bet show

[Robert Fischer]

here we go

[menifee]

1-9 and there is a mini-show plunge.

[PhantomOnTour]

Exacta:
:1: :6: w :1: :3: :6:

[tzipi]

Will be nice to see a great horse for us to watch in the future but money wise and based on Arch's inexperience I'll go :6: over all.

[menifee]

You got to bet against the bridgejumper here in the show pools.

[Robert Fischer]

looks the part pre-race

[rastajenk]

Professionally done.

[tzipi]

I like him as well and think the 5 and part of the 2 entry has a shot. He may well air on the field but since he's never raced and will have a lot bet on him, it's worth taking a stab against


Nice call on the :5: Al. Ran a great race for second at 20-1. :ThmbUp:

Very nice run first out for Archwarrior.

[KirisClown]

hY1gVuV3T3M

[FantasticDan]

Professionally done.Yep.. wasn't sure what he was gonna have left in the stretch, but he kept on well, good time.

KirisClown, on top of the replay as always! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[redshift1]

Good but not breathtaking. Want to see what the field does in subsequent starts. Beyer ? 85-95 maybe.

[tucker6]

Good but not breathtaking. Want to see what the field does in subsequent starts. Beyer ? 85-95 maybe.
very good for a first start I'd say. Rated nicely from 2 lengths back in third to just off the leader's shoulder until he came to the stretch. I wish most 3 year olds could do that. His time of 1:10 for 6F wasn't too shabby either after the 22 and 1 start. The only thing I didn't like was the constant movement side-to-side down the stretch which cost him time and energy. Needs to work on that. Otherwise, I like what I saw from a maiden.

[Robert Fischer]

nice big 2yo with great conformation while running.


is not naturally that willing of a runner right now.
Had to be kept busy vs these inferior horses.


May be more visually impressive in another race or two when he stretches out in distance. Assuming he has the stamina, the stride will be more natural without as much urging needed to keep pace.

[Robert Fischer]

not a bad looking 2yo
http://blogs.courier-journal.com/racing/files/2012/08/archwarrior.jpg

[horses4courses]

Nice pic :ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

I think that was the performance we were all kind of expecting and hoping for. A good solid first out...a win...and a time that was more than respectable at first glance...

He seemed to be toying with them a bit...it looked almost as if some of the closers stood half a chance at the top of the stretch, but he drew away at will as the finish line neared...

[classhandicapper]

83 Beyer

[PaceAdvantage]

83 Beyer Very, very small sample of dirt races with which to construct a variant...wonder if that throws a monkey wrench into things....

Intuitively, that number seems low.

[the little guy]

Very, very small sample of dirt races with which to construct a variant...wonder if that throws a monkey wrench into things....

Intuitively, that number seems low.


Really? Did you look at the 7F maiden race for older Fillies/Mares that came next? Did you look at how they compared to Wednesday?

Not only does it not seem low to me, I thought he was remarkably disappointing, especially considering the hype. That barn delivers with first time starting 2YOs. Archwarrior was ridden hard for much of the race. I hope he moves forward. He better.

[cj]

Really? Did you look at the 7F maiden race for older Fillies/Mares that came next? Did you look at how they compared to Wednesday?

Not only does it not seem low to me, I thought he was remarkably disappointing, especially considering the hype. That barn delivers with first time starting 2YOs. Archwarrior was ridden hard for much of the race. I hope he moves forward. He better.

Don't you think he looked like the type that will be better routing?

[the little guy]

Don't you think he looked like the type that will be better routing?

Perhaps, and given his sire that may well be the case, but given the hype, and the way that barn's 2YOs run, I don't think it's unreasonable to have expected a more flashy win. Look, this may well be a very good thing going forward, but I'm going to proceed with caution.

[cj]

Perhaps, and given his sire that may well be the case, but given the hype, and the way that barn's 2YOs run, I don't think it's unreasonable to have expected a more flashy win. Look, this may well be a very good thing going forward, but I'm going to proceed with caution.

No doubt about proceeding with caution. I set the over/under on career starts at 5.

[PaceAdvantage]

Really? Did you look at the 7F maiden race for older Fillies/Mares that came next? Did you look at how they compared to Wednesday?

Not only does it not seem low to me, I thought he was remarkably disappointing, especially considering the hype. That barn delivers with first time starting 2YOs. Archwarrior was ridden hard for much of the race. I hope he moves forward. He better. By using the words "I wonder" along with the word "intuitively," I thought I was giving the clear impression that I was not basing my reply on any in-depth study...simply gut feeling, and looking to others for further clarification (like cj, a figure maker, unlike myself). I did look at that next race, and the other 6f race on the card.

After doing so my gut feeling was that 1:10 flat would garner a couple of ticks higher than 83...but that's why Beyer is paid to make figures and nobody pays me to run this site... :lol:

[the little guy]

By using the words "I wonder" along with the word "intuitively," I thought I was giving the clear impression that I was not basing my reply on any in-depth study...simply gut feeling, and looking to others for further clarification (like cj, a figure maker, unlike myself). I did look at that next race, and the other 6f race on the card.

After doing so my gut feeling was that 1:10 flat would garner a couple of ticks higher than 83...but that's why Beyer is paid to make figures and nobody pays me to run this site... :lol:


Let me make sure to play the world's smallest violin at your upcoming pity party.

[cj]

By using the words "I wonder" along with the word "intuitively," I thought I was giving the clear impression that I was not basing my reply on any in-depth study...simply gut feeling, and looking to others for further clarification (like cj, a figure maker, unlike myself). I did look at that next race, and the other 6f race on the card.

After doing so my gut feeling was that 1:10 flat would garner a couple of ticks higher than 83...but that's why Beyer is paid to make figures and nobody pays me to run this site... :lol:

I just did the figures for the dirt races, and I have it quite a bit faster. I gave it a 75 which is the equivalent of about a 94. The pace was nothing special, a bit on the slow side. I have the 1/4 at 65 and the half at 68 before flying home to a 75.

Part of the difference is I tend to project more improvement in lightly raced winners, which would be every dirt race yesterday.

[Robert Fischer]

That barn delivers with first time starting 2YOs.

This is a big point. This was not a "wow" performance, and(w/out an in-depth study) wasn't the best 2yo maiden effort from this barn @ Saratoga.

Something was a little "off" with this horse.
The most natural part of the race was period when they initially settled after the start. Both the :6: and :1: had a better start, but then ARCHWARRIOR appeared to start racing "greenly" or however you want to characterize it.
Had to be urged, and the :6: and AW did a little bit of running from that point to the turn.

I don't know what causes that lack of willingness in a horse. Sure he lacks some cruising speed, but it wasn't like he was producing some giant strides.

He looked more like a horse looks when he's catching a lot of kickback, or a little sore. Head was coming up a little and wasn't willing down into stride.

:confused:

[senortout]

This one is getting the benefit of the doubt, from me at least. I really do think I will upgrade this one, rather than poo-poo. Who sent in that photo on this thread? Its a good one. Have another gander at those 'wheels'. Look like iron to me.

If Pletchter ever brought one along the right way, this is the one. Is winning by twenty the goal? Ask yourself.

[burnsy]

It kind of proves how the "internet" world is always looking for a bandwagon, a super man and a super horse. The facts are the 3yo maidens went faster in a longer race.....half an hour later. I'm not saying this horse stinks but its one race. They hype some of these horses, its their right to. But people are so hungry they'll jump on it, hook ,line and sinker. Do people ever think about the owner being the boss? If the owner wants the horse hyped, the trainers are going to oblige. That simple. I can point to so many recent examples too> Remember Royal Delta and that "incredible" performance at Churchill. For crying out loud people on the internet were talking "HOY"...i guess thats been debunked but it was hilarious. Union Rags...same deal. Uncle Mo...same deal. I remember coming on these sites when Big Brown was around...you would of thought he was Bold Ruler for crying out loud. As i said to the Royal Delta fanatics after she beat up on basically allowance horses.....lets see what happens....it was 1 race. If you want to find out who the "now" horse is....just cruise these sights. If you are a critical thinker, its pretty amusing.

[PaceAdvantage]

I just did the figures for the dirt races, and I have it quite a bit faster. I gave it a 75 which is the equivalent of about a 94. The pace was nothing special, a bit on the slow side. I have the 1/4 at 65 and the half at 68 before flying home to a 75.

Part of the difference is I tend to project more improvement in lightly raced winners, which would be every dirt race yesterday. Thank you for the helpful reply...now if I can just get this pesky violin sound out of my head...any idea where that might be coming from?

I can't even win around here when I try and be self-deprecating...cue more violins I guess...

[PaceAdvantage]

BTW, I think people are going overboard in over analyzing this debut effort...which is to be expected I guess from the pre-race hype...I'm guilty of this myself...

[PaceAdvantage]

And just for the record, in case my intentions were unclear, when I typed "...but that's why Beyer is paid to make figures and nobody pays me to run this site..." that wasn't a dig at Beyer...that wasn't me looking for pity...that was me trying to get across the point that I fully realize my inconsquential role in the grand scheme of things...

All I wanted to do was get thoughts on the figure, and either confirm or refute my gut instinct that it seemed light.

I thank everyone for their responses to date.

[rastajenk]

If I had anything to do with this one, I'd be happy with an 83. It's a good jumping off point for better efforts down the road. You don't want too much too soon.

[cj]

It kind of proves how the "internet" world is always looking for a bandwagon, a super man and a super horse. The facts are the 3yo maidens went faster in a longer race.....half an hour later. I'm not saying this horse stinks but its one race. They hype some of these horses, its their right to. But people are so hungry they'll jump on it, hook ,line and sinker. Do people ever think about the owner being the boss? If the owner wants the horse hyped, the trainers are going to oblige. That simple. I can point to so many recent examples too> Remember Royal Delta and that "incredible" performance at Churchill. For crying out loud people on the internet were talking "HOY"...i guess thats been debunked but it was hilarious. Union Rags...same deal. Uncle Mo...same deal. I remember coming on these sites when Big Brown was around...you would of thought he was Bold Ruler for crying out loud. As i said to the Royal Delta fanatics after she beat up on basically allowance horses.....lets see what happens....it was 1 race. If you want to find out who the "now" horse is....just cruise these sights. If you are a critical thinker, its pretty amusing.

I am the last person that gets hyped up about young horses. I just think this particular one ran a lot better than people are thinking he did. The dirt races were won by a first time starter and two 2nd time starters, the very horses that people tend to underestimate when projecting numbers.

[thespaah]

very good for a first start I'd say. Rated nicely from 2 lengths back in third to just off the leader's shoulder until he came to the stretch. I wish most 3 year olds could do that. His time of 1:10 for 6F wasn't too shabby either after the 22 and 1 start. The only thing I didn't like was the constant movement side-to-side down the stretch which cost him time and energy. Needs to work on that. Otherwise, I like what I saw from a maiden.
Other than racing a little green in the stretch and Velazquez had to get his attention a couple times, this horse looked pretty good. He's got good size and when he fills out and gets a better stride under him, he could be a horse to watch next year.
If I owned him I'd start him two more times once in a NW1X and maybe an overnight stake. Then send him home.

[pele polo]

Really? Did you look at the 7F maiden race for older Fillies/Mares that came next? Did you look at how they compared to Wednesday?

Not only does it not seem low to me, I thought he was remarkably disappointing, especially considering the hype. That barn delivers with first time starting 2YOs. Archwarrior was ridden hard for much of the race. I hope he moves forward. He better.

In the very next race, maiden fillies went the six panels about a second faster in a 7f race.

With that said, he does look like he'll handle longer distances. He was ridden throughout but he kept to task pretty nicely too after chasing a decent pace.

On NYRA.com both Pletcher and Johnny V were quoted as saying they were not sure why he was creating such a buzz. Playing coy? Who knows. We'll surely find out soon enough.

[PaceAdvantage]

In the very next race, maiden fillies went the six panels about a second faster in a 7f race.By "about a second faster," I take it you actually meant to say .11 seconds faster, which was the actual difference in time.

[davew]

what an impressive looking horse

will probably do better at races longer than a mile

[thespaah]

In the very next race, maiden fillies went the six panels about a second faster in a 7f race.

With that said, he does look like he'll handle longer distances. He was ridden throughout but he kept to task pretty nicely too after chasing a decent pace.

On NYRA.com both Pletcher and Johnny V were quoted as saying they were not sure why he was creating such a buzz. Playing coy? Who knows. We'll surely find out soon enough.
I saw a post race winners circle interview on HRTV of Pletcher. He was almost evasive with his answers.
This comes as no surprise. I do not know of a horseman who will start spouting off about his horse. Especially if it's a real good one. They like to play their cards quietly.

[redshift1]

Entered in this weekends Champagne, winner may end up the BC favorite as the west looks so-so early on.

[classhandicapper]

Entered in this weekends Champagne, winner may end up the BC favorite as the west looks so-so early on.

I was impressed with another Pletcher horse entered in the Champagne.

I thought Micromanage went out really well after the finish of his first start. You can't really tell from the replay, at the track that day I thought he looked like he still had a ton in the tank after the wire. With a faster pace to close off, it wouldn't shock me if he 's capable of running a faster figure. It's a lot to ask to jump right into the Champagne. A few of the horses in there have already won or raced well in the early stakes. But I was impressed.

He may have even been working in company with Archwarrior lately. I wish I saw some of those works.

[redshift1]

Looks to be entered at Deleware as well?