100 Maiden Plays Starting 8-28-12

[KidCapper]

Going to try something different here. I am only going to play the Maiden races I like in this thread. See if I can bang out a profit over 100 plays. For this exercise, I am just betting $2 Win Tickets. Let's see what happens.

1.) Parx Race -5 The :1: . Claimed 2 back by LeBarron who hits at 20% 2nd off the claim. High last race Bris figure for 31% maiden claiming trainer. Must overcome 2nditis, 11 2nds in 16 starts for this filly. Think this is the breakthrough race.

2.) Hoosier Race -3 The :8: . Ships in from Arlington for 7% shipping trainer Janks today. Should improve on the return to dirt today after 3 poly's and a turf race. Threw his highest Bris figure on the dirt at Hawthorne in career bow. Has speed and 4 works heading into this.

3.) Hoosier Race -5 The :6: . 3rd career start for this filly with 2nd solid runs under her belt. Jockey change to Coa today for trainer who is 7 for 8 on the board with no winners. High last out Bris figure and owns the fastest dirt figure of the group. Graduation time today.

4.) Mountaineer Race -4 The :5: .Double drops in class for a 16% trainer move. Jockey-trainer combo have won with 2 of last 5 together. Solid 3rd in the mud last out in first try vs. Mdn claimers. Looks the one tonight.


Good Luck N Good Racing From The KidCapper!!

[Chris Longshot]

Good Luck Kid, sure you will do well! :)

[KidCapper]

Good Luck Kid, sure you will do well! :)

Thx Chris. Down to 3 plays today as Parx has cancelled racing for 8-28-12.

[Chris Longshot]

Thx Chris. Down to 3 plays today as Parx has cancelled racing for 8-28-12.

Bummer liked a few there today! :(

[KidCapper]

Going to try something different here. I am only going to play the Maiden races I like in this thread. See if I can bang out a profit over 100 plays. For this exercise, I am just betting $2 Win Tickets. Let's see what happens.

1.) Parx Race -5 The :1: . Track Cancelled. No Bet.

2.) Hoosier Race -3 The :8: . Winner paid $4.20

3.) Hoosier Race -5 The :6: . Finished 3rd

4.) Mountaineer Race -4 The :5: .Eased at 1-5 with a 20k bridgejumper!




Day 1 Total

3 Bets
$6 Wagered
$4.20 Returned

Net-$1.80

Will have more plays at better odds tomorrow. Got my feet wet today.

[KidCapper]

Day 2 Maiden Race selections made before scratches:

Delaware Race -1 The :5: Takes the blinkers off for a 27% trainer move. Lost as the favorite last out and Smith hits at 27% right back off that race. Bullet work Aug 14th for this.

Del Mar Race -1 The :8: . Lost all chance at the start in last with a bad bobble. Takes a slight drop in class for a 10% trainer move. Has speed and is the one to catch.

Del Mar Race -5 The :12: . 3rd time off the layoff for Baffert hitting at 26% with the move. Trainer also hits at 37% after losing as the favorite last out. Speed and the slight cutback to 6F should get this one home.

Hoosier Race -7 The :9: . Just missed in career bow going 5F. Stretches out to 6F today for Calhoun who hits at 25% with 2nd career starters. Bullet work Aug 15th at CD for this. Graduation time.

Remington Race -4 The :4: . 3rd career start for Stuart here. Drops in class for the 1st turf try after racing way over her head in the Stakes in PrM. Bred to love the green and gets in light tonight with the bug up. Nice 4F work for this. Some things to like.

Saratoga Race -1 The :5: . Solid 1st start going short with an 82 Bris figure. Bred to enjoy the stretchout to the route today. Trainer McLaughlin hits at 29% when 1st routing and 29% with 2nd career starters.

Saratoga Race -7 The :1: . Solid turf try last out signals this one likes the green. Has speed and the rail to take advantage here. Love the 5F workout over the surface Aug 24th. Ward 36% with 2nd time grass runners.

Woodbine Race -8 The :7: . Puts the blinkers on today for a 13% trainer move. Drops in class for another 23% angle. Trainer also good with 2nd off the layoff types at 20%. Must over come slow start problems. Clean break and gone!

Good Luck N Good Racing From The KidCapper !!

[Robert Fischer]

good luck with 5
tough first race @ sar here
5 probably just lacked speed and will win with added ground, but 2 and 4 both look decent, and that isn't even looking at the asmussen horse.

[Solid_Gold]

Kid, I wish you luck with this endeavor!

These are the races I try to avoid. Too much guess work for me.

[KidCapper]

Delaware Race -1 The :5: . Off the Board

Del Mar Race -1 The :8: Off the Board.

Del Mar Race -5 The :12: Finished 2nd

Hoosier Race -7 The :9: Off the Board

Remington Race -4 The :4: WINNER PAID $10.80

Saratoga Race -1 The :5: Finished 2nd

Saratoga Race -7 The :1: Off the board.

Woodbine Race -8 The :7: Off the Board.

Not a great day for me. Did scrape up one winner at least.

DAY 2 Total

8 Plays
$16 Bet
$10.80 Ret.
Net -$5.20

Total thru 2 days played.

11 Plays
$22 Bet
$15 Ret

Net-$7.00 Next!!

[KidCapper]

Day 3 picks 8-30-12 Maiden Race selections made before scratches:

Arlington Race -8 The :9: . Torres picks up the mount today for low percentage outfit. Puts the blinkers on today and she has been freshened for this. Nice 5F work at FP Aug 15th. Some things to like.

Calder Race -4 The :4: . 3rd time off the layoff for Spatz here. Back on the weeds after lackluster main track try last out. Drops into the maiden claiming ranks today for a 10% trainer move. Breakthrough day with the bug boy up.

Delaware Race -3 The :7: . Filly off the layoff for 7% layoff trainer. Owns the fields career best Bris figure (72) and the high last out figure of 68. Fresh speed is always dangerous going 5F. 6-1 on the line makes her playable.

Del Mar Race -2 The :9: . First off the claim for Sadler hitting at 29% with new horses in the barn. 4 workouts since last race a good sign here. Repeat of 86 Bris figure in bow takes this.

Monmouth Race -4 The :7: . 2nd time starter for DiMauro who hits at 9% with these types. Ran an even race when bet down to 2.70-1 for career bow and bled. Adds Lasix today and takes a slight drop in class today. Look for improved run today.

Penn National Race -9 The :1: . Hesitated start last out going 7F. Cuts back to 6F today for struggling outfit. Double drops in class for an 11% trainer move. Owns the field's best career Bris figure over this surface. Improving sort graduates today.

Remington Race -6 The :13: . As of this typing this one is stuck on the AE list. If she draws in, she will be tough here. Tries the turf for the first time shipping in from Prm for 33% shipping trainer. Stalker is bred to love the green and is a solid bet if she gets in.

Saratoga Race -4 The :4: . Cuts back to 7F after the failed turf route last out. 11% turf to dirt trainer Lukas warming up slowly as the meet comes to an end. Owns the field's best Bris figure (92) when sprinting. Bullet work Aug 5th for this. Take a chance play.

Good Luck N Good Racing From The KidCapper!!

[RaceBookJoe]

Kidcapper, good thread and test you have going on. I am interested in seeing at the end of this if you find that the maidens at the higher level tracks are more "reliable" than at the smaller tracks. I have just started handicapping some smaller tracks just for the learning experience and have noticed a few times that "angles" play just as big a part as running lines. Thanks and good luck.

[KidCapper]

Kidcapper, good thread and test you have going on. I am interested in seeing at the end of this if you find that the maidens at the higher level tracks are more "reliable" than at the smaller tracks. I have just started handicapping some smaller tracks just for the learning experience and have noticed a few times that "angles" play just as big a part as running lines. Thanks and good luck.

Thx RBJ. I'm more of a pick 3 player but I was going over some old plays and noticed for a short run I had a good run on maiden races. Might of just been a short-term freak thing. Thought I'd test it out here. So far mixed results.

[Striker]

KC- FYI Cisco off all mounts ar Arlington today. Mena gets on the #9 in your race

[KidCapper]

KC- FYI Cisco off all mounts ar Arlington today. Mena gets on the #9 in your race

Thx for the heads up Striker. Im still ok with that.

Will also still play the :4: at Calder, even though it's off the turf.

Good Luck today!

[Robert Fischer]

sar r4

the 5 was supposed to be a big bet-against here.
However she is fundamentally sound, and really came in on her toes today. Have to include.

I like the 3,7,8 here along with the fav 5

good luck w/ 4.

[KidCapper]

Day 3 picks 8-30-12 Maiden Race selections made before scratches:

Arlington Race -8 The :9: Finished 4th.

Calder Race -4 The :4: Finshed 3rd.

Delaware Race -3 The :7: Finshed 4th.

Del Mar Race -2 The :9: . Finshed a hard luck 2nd.

Monmouth Race -4 The :7: . Scratched.

Penn National Race -9 The :1: WINNER PAID $7.20

Remington Race -6 The :13: . Scratched

Saratoga Race -4 The :4: . Finished 4th.

Rough day that could've been better.

Day 3 Totals
6 Bets and 2 Scratches
$12 Wagered
$7.20 Returned
Net-$4.80

Totals thru 3 days of bets.

17 Plays
$34 Wagered
$22.20 Returned
Net-$11.80

[KidCapper]

Here come the maiden plays for Friday and I've asked my self,"Do I feel lucky? Well do I punk? Let's spin the wheel and win some prizes. The picks before scratches:

Arlington Race -6 The :10: . 15-1 longshot here for Kassen who hits at 20% with 2nd time starters in his barn. Bris figures have improved every start and he threw the field's high last out figure. Taking a shot.

Arlington Race -7 The :8: . Ran a field's best 84 Bris figure in career bow. Gets Emigh back up today after a bad start cost her all chance going 7F with Rosie up in stakes try in last. Drops back in with friends today.

Canterbury Race -1 The :2: . 12-1 ML shot tries the turf after a credible 84 Bris figure in career bow. Trainer Potter hits at 29% with 1st time turfers and 19% with career 2nd starters.

Del Mar Race -2 The :4: . Drops from MSW to Mdn Clm today for Jones who hits at 33% with that move and 32% the 1st time they drop in. Has a out over the surface and should make a good showing today.

Hooiser Park Race 6- The :9: . Stretches back out to a route after a solid 3rd place sprinting last out. Trainer hits at 16% with the move. Should sit a good trip behind the inside speed here.

Mountaineer Race -3 The :6: . Turns back to a sprint for the 1st time at this level. Back to back failed route tries have dirtied up this one's form. Bred to be a sprinter. 3-1 seems about right.

Monmouth Race -7 The :4: . Lost as the favorite last out and trainer hits at 30% in the next race out after the loss. Overcomes 2nd itis today.

Woodbine Race -9 The :2: . Drops into the maiden claiming ranks for a 22% trainer move. Tries the turf for a 2nd time after setting just off the pace versus much better. Solid string of works for this.

Woodbine Race -10 The :10: . Puts the blinkers back on for a 14% trainer move. Has the field's high last out Bris figure. 3 works over the poly since last raced. 6-1 on the ML we will take.

Good Luck N Good Racing From The KidCapper !!

[KidCapper]

Here come the maiden plays for Friday and I've asked my self,"Do I feel lucky? Well do I punk? Let's spin the wheel and win some prizes. The picks before scratches:

Arlington Race -6 The :10: Off the Board.

Arlington Race -7 The :8: . Off the Board.

Canterbury Race -1 The :2: . 12-1 ML shot finished 2nd

Del Mar Race -2 The :4: . Finished 3rd

Hooiser Park Race 6- The :9: . Finished 4th

Mountaineer Race -3 The :6: . Finished 2nd

Monmouth Race -7 The :4: . WINNER PAID $3.80

Woodbine Race -9 The :2: . SCRATCHED

Woodbine Race -10 The :10: . WINNER PAID $14.70

Good Luck N Good Racing From The KidCapper !!

A better day today with a slight profit to show and some near-misses.

Day 4 8-31-12
Plays 8 and 1 scratch
$16 Wagered
$18.50 Returned
Net +$2.50

Totals thru 4 days of action:

25 Plays
$50 Wagered
$40.70 Returned
Net-$9.30

Next!

[KidCapper]

Slow day for picks on Saturday. Only have 5 I really like. Picks before scratches.

Ellis Park Race -4 The :5: . 10-1 on the ML here. 3rd time off the layoff for a 20% trainer move for 14% turf trainer McEntee. Nice 3F breeze for this Aug 28th. Price will be right.

Mountaineer Race -7 The :2: . Stretches out for the 1st time today for a 17% 1st routing trainer, Fits the 2 sprints to a route pattern for another 17% trainer angle. Gets off the AW surface for a 26% AW to dirt trainer to boot.

Saratoga Race -4 The :1: . Mott trainee from the rail with Junior up. 3rd time off the layoff for a 23% Mott move. Fires back after losing as the favorite last out and trainer hits at 22% next out. 8 for 10 runner always there and I think it's graduation day.

Saratoga Race -7 The :2: . Ran an impressive 97 Bris figure when 1st seen at CD in June. Freshened up for this by Romans who hits at 14% off the layoff. Ramon sees fit to ride and this one has been working well.

Saratoga Race -12 The :6: . Beaten favorite last out for Clement a 24% next out winner after the loss. Owns the field's highest Bris figure at the distance for 21% turf trainer.

Good Luck N Good Racing From The KidCapper!!

[KidCapper]

Only had 4 plays with a Scratch. 2-1sts a 2nd and a 3rd to show a small profit for the 2nd straight day.

Ellis Park Race -4 The :5: . SCRATCHED.

Mountaineer Race -7 The :2: . WINNER PAID $5.20

Saratoga Race -4 The :1: . WINNER PAID $7.40

Saratoga Race -7 The :2: . Finished 3rd

Saratoga Race -12 The :6: . Finished 2nd.

Good Luck N Good Racing From The KidCapper!!

DAY 5 9-1-12
4 plays and 1 scratch
$8 Wagered
$12.60 Returned
NET +$4.60

Totals thru 5 days played

29 Plays
$58 Wagered
$53.30 Returned
NET -$4.70

Creeping my way back to even. It's a grind.

[KidCapper]

Hard to find maidens I like today. Only have 4 picks for Sunday 9-2-12. Picks made before scratches.

Arlington Race -2 The :2: Career maiden has maybe found the right field to finally get the win today. 7-2 on the line seems about right here.

Ellis Race -4 The :6: 3rd time off the layoff for 50% trainer with a small sample. 25% trainer move when double dropping in class. Gets back on the dirt today after 2 even poly tries.

Golden Gate Race -5 The :7: Returns to a sprint today after the failed route try in latest. Trainer hits at 17% with the route-to-sprint move. Double drops in class for another 24% move. 4-1 on the line here.

Monmouth Race -10 The :10: . Ships in from Delaware for 26% shipping trainer Pino. 2nd best in a 50k stakes race going short last out. Stretches that speed out today for 1st time routing trainer hitting at 17% with the move. Know her early n often.

Good Luck N Good Racing From The KidCapper!!

[KidCapper]

Hard to find maidens I like today. Only have 4 picks for Sunday 9-2-12. Picks made before scratches.

Arlington Race -2 The :2: Finished 3rd

Ellis Race -4 The :6: Finished 2nd

Golden Gate Race -5 The :7: Finished 2nd

Monmouth Race -10 The :10: .Finished 3rd

A close but no cigar frustrating day for the maiden picks with 2-2nds and 2-3rds. Totals.

Day 6
4 Plays
$8 Wagered
$0 Returned
Net-$8

Totals so far.
33 Plays
$66 Wagered
$53.30 Returned
NET -$12.70 :bang:

Onward...

[KidCapper]

Monday 9-03-12 maiden picks:

Monmouth Race -1 The :4: . Probably not much value to be had here. Looks much the best for Hills with the 13% drop in class move. High last out Bris figure to boot.

Monmouth Race -3 The :2: . Dueled to a 2nd place finish in career bow with a 92 Bris figure. Calhoun hits at 25% with 2nd time career starters. Graduation day today.

Monmouth Race -5 The :9: . Claimed last out by 15% 1st off the claim trainer. Double jumps up in class for another 25% move and 2 sprints to a route for a bonus 10% move. Some things to like.

Ellis Race -6 The :5: . Solid 2nd on the weeds last out. Today's race is off the turf but I think this one should handle that for Romans. Trainer hits at 16% with 2nd time routers.

Remington Race -5 The :2: . Ships in from Prm for 22% shipping trainer Richards. Solid 2nd last out for 20% 2 year old trainer. Owns the field's high last out Bris figure.(80)

Delaware Race -3 The :6: . 2nd best in first route attempt over the wf surface last out. Motion hits at 16% with 2nd time routers. Has speed to sit well in this small field.

Delaware Race -5 The :6: . Suffering from 2nd itis in last pair. Has the speed to lead these a long way. Needs to find a little heart in the stretch to get it done today. Nice 5F work heading into this.

Del Mar Race -2 The :4: . Major jockey switch to Garcia today after a just miss effort in last as the favorite. Trainer Biancone hits at 16% after losing as the favorite. Has found the right level here.

Good Luck N Good Racing From The KidCapper !!

[KidCapper]

Monday 9-03-12 maiden picks:

Monmouth Race -1 The :4: . WINNER PAID $3.40

Monmouth Race -3 The :2: . WINNER PAID $3.40

Monmouth Race -5 The :9: . Tough beat 2nd.

Ellis Race -6 The :5: . WINNER PAID $3.80

Remington Race -5 The :2: . Off the board.

Delaware Race -3 The :6: . Off the board.

Delaware Race -5 The :6: . Finished 3rd

Del Mar Race -2 The :4: . Off the board, horrid trip.



Found some winners but nothing with a price. Hmmm. Totals so far.

Day 7 Monday 9-03-12
8 Plays
$16 Wagered
$10.60 Returned
Net-$5.40

Totals so far

41 Plays
$82 Wagered
$63.90 Returned
Net-$18.10

Need a big rally as I approach the halfway point of this test.

[KidCapper]

A few for Tuesday.

Finger Lakes Race -7 The :3: . Englehart duoble jumps this one up in class for a 24% trainer move. He hits at 30% after losing as the favorite. Cutback to 5F seals the deal.

Finger Lakes Race -9 The :1: :1a: entry. Another one for Englehart here. Either half could win this. The 1 ships in from Saratoga after a 3rd place finish in the mud for another trainer. Englehart 33% with 1st timers in the barn. The :1a: has been competative over the FL surface going long and should love the cutback today.

Hoosier Race -1 The :2: . Comes into this off a pair of 2nd place finishes. Jumps up in class for a 16% trainer move. High last out Bris figure to boot.

Penn Race -7 The :2: . Ran a career high 87 Bris figure when returning to the main track last out. Nice 5F workout for this on Aug 25th. 8-1 on the line would be nice.

Suffolk Race -7 The :4: . Just missed in career bow for Clement last out. Had some nice works at Saratoga prior to debut. Trainer hits at 20% with 2nd time starters. Some things to like.


Good Luck N Good Racing From The KidCapper !!

[Robert Fischer]

this :5: doesn't look bad in the 1st race @ prx. First time starter, good barn, looks decent on the track.

:2: is taking a lot of money but has twice dissapointed.

[Robert Fischer]

this :5: doesn't look bad in the 1st race @ prx. First time starter, good barn, looks decent on the track.

:2: is taking a lot of money but has twice dissapointed.

fought the bit and looked like he went bad mid-race dropping well out of it, then he comes closing in the slop to get 4th. not cool.

[KidCapper]

Finger Lakes Race -7 The :3: . Finished 3rd

Finger Lakes Race -9 The :1: :1a: entry. WINNER PAID $5.90

Hoosier Race -1 The :2: . WINNER PAID $4.80

Penn Race -7 The :2: . WINNER PAID $3.20

Suffolk Race -7 The :4: . WINNER PAID $3.00

Great day picking 4 out of 5 winners. Prices...eh not so much. But a profit is a profit. Totals so far.

Day 08 Tuesday 9-04-12
5 plays
$10 Wagered
$16.90 Returned
Net+$6.90

Totals to date.
46 Plays
$92 Wagered
$80.80 Returned
Net-$11.20

[KidCapper]

Maiden plays for Wednesday 9-05-12. Picks before scratches.

Delaware Race -2 The :1: . Drops down a level for Cartagena who hits at 36% on the drop. Gets in light with the bug up and owns the high last race Bris figure to boot.

Del Mar Race -9 The :8: Was flying late in the 6.5F sprint last out. Stretches back out to a mile today which should help this one. Worked twice since last raced a good sign for McAnally.

Evangeline Race -6 The :9: . 8-1 on the ML. With the favorite suffering from 2nd itis. I think this one is a good play. Will be close to the lead from the outside post with Boo Boo up and if the :2: shows her usual lack of heart. This one gets her picture taken. She has the high last out Bris figure too.

Golden Gate Race -5 The :7: . 3rd time off the layoff for Mason. Lost as the favorite last out and trainer hits at 28% next out. Drops in class for another 18% move. The one to catch.

Golden Gate Race -6 The :9: . Ships in from Dmr for new trainer Miyadi who hits at 27% off the van and 28% with new horses in the barn. Takes the blinkers off for another 23% move on the return to the sprint.

Penn National Race -2 The :10: . 3rd time off the layoff for 18% trainer Sheppard. Drops from MSW to Mdn Claiming today for another 20% angle. Nice 5F workout for this Sept 1st. Some things to like.

Woodbine Race -1 The :3: . Drops to the bottom for the return to the poly track today for 20% turf-to-Aw trainer. Trainer also hits at 18% going MSW to Mdn Clm. Now or never time for this one.

Good Luck N Good Racing From The KidCapper !!

[KidCapper]

Maiden plays for Wednesday 9-05-12.

Delaware Race -2 The :1: . Finished 2nd

Del Mar Race -9 The :8: Finished 2nd

Evangeline Race -6 The :9: WINNER PAID $8.80

Golden Gate Race -5 The :7: . WINNER PAID $5.80

Golden Gate Race -6 The :9: . SCRATCHED

Penn National Race -2 The :10: . Off The Board

Woodbine Race -1 The :3: . WINNER PAID $6.20


Good day today with 3 winners and 2 2nds out of 6 plays. Totals:

Day 09 Wednesday 9-05-12
6 Plays
$12 Wagered
$20.80 Returned
Net+$8.80

Totals to date.
52 Plays
$104 Wagered
$101.60 Returned
Net-$2.40 << Not Even but I can see it>>

Next!!

[KidCapper]

Here are my top 5 maiden plays for day 10, Thursday 9-06-12. Picks before scratches:

Arlington Race -1 The :6: . Drops into the Maiden claiming ranks for the 1st time today. A 10% trainer move for Williamson. Has some speed and should relish the return to the poly today.

Arlington Race -6 The :6: 3rd time off the layoff for Yanez a 9% trainer move. Last was an eventful run on the yld surface for 1st try at this level. Was steadied in the stretch to boot. 3 works heading into this.

Calder Race -9 The :10: . Another 3rd time off the layoff runner for 19% trainer at the meet. Goes 2 sprints to a route for another 12% move. Owns the field's high last out speed figure too.

Laurel Race -9 The :1a: . Last seen running an even race at Saratoga July 30th. Was bumped at the start of that event. Ships in for 16% shipping trainer Keefe. Some things to like.

Turfway Race -6 The :4: . 3rd time off the layoff for Reed hitting at 17% with the move. Drops into the maiden claiming ranks for an 18% move. Career high Bris figure was on the Keeneland poly so the switch to the AW should be no problem.

Good Luck N Good Racing From The KidCapper!!

[KidCapper]

Here are my top 5 maiden plays for day 10, Thursday 9-06-12. Picks before scratches:

Arlington Race -1 The :6: . WINNER PAID $3.40

Arlington Race -6 The :6: WINNER PAID $8.80

Calder Race -9 The :10: . SCRATCHED

Laurel Race -9 The :1a: . FINISHED 2ND

Turfway Race -6 The :4: . WINNER PAID $7.40


Had a great day today!! 3 Winners...1 2nd..and 1 scratch. Totals...

Day 10 Thursday 9-06-12
4 Plays
$8 Wagered
$19.60 Returned
NET +$11.60

Totals to date.
56 Plays
$112 Wagered
$121.20 Returned
NET +$9.20 <<Showing a profit finally! >>> The grind goes on...

[KidCapper]

Here are my top 7 maiden plays for day 11, Friday 9-07-12. Picks before scratches:

Calder Race -6 The :3: . Drops into the Mdn Claiming ranks for the 1st time a 23% trainer move for O'Connell. Lost as the favorite last out and she hits at 22% next out off the loss. Big jockey change today.

Calder Race -7 The :8: . Puts the blinkers on for her 2nd career start. A 25% trainer move. Drops a level in class for another 17% angle. Career bow was the fields high last race Bris figure. Any improvement and this one's gone.

Fairplex Race -2 The :6: . Ran a solid 2nd at Dmr off the layoff last out with a bit of an awkward start. Has been freshened for the cutback to 4F today. On dirt for the 1st time for a 10% trainer move.

Louisiana Race-3 The :6: . Puts the blinkers on today for a 20% trainer move for Calhoun. Ran an even race in debut sprint. Stretches out to a route for the 1st time for a 16% trainer move and 26% with 2nd time starters. Some things to like at 4-1 on the line.

Laurel Race -4 The :5: . Goes from MSW to Mdn Clm today for an 18% trainer move. Beaten favorite last out a 25% next out winner move to boot. Nice string of works for 12% off the layoff trainer.

Laurel Race -10 The :3: . 3rd time off the layoff for Sheppard an 18% move. Ships in from Saratoga for another 18% angle. Owns the fastest turf figures of this group to boot. We'll take 5-2 here.

Remington Race -1 The :7: . Drops in from Msw to Mdn Clm today for a 21% Caster move. Ran 2nd as the favorite last out at Wrd. Trainer hits at 16% right back off the loss. Should handle these tonight.

Good Luck N Good Racing From The KidCapper!!!

[KidCapper]

Day 11 Recap.

Calder Race -6 The :3: . WINNER PAID $3.20

Calder Race -7 The :8: . OFF THE BOARD

Fairplex Race -2 The :6: . FINISHED 3RD

Louisiana Race-3 The :6: . SCRATCHED

Laurel Race -4 The :5: . OFF THE BOARD

Laurel Race -10 The :3: . OFF THE BOARD

Remington Race -1 The :7: . FINISHED 3RD

Bad day for me here. Totals for day 11
6 Plays with 1 scratch
$12 Wagered
$3.20 Returned
NET -$8.80

Totals SO FAR.
62 PLAYS
$124 WAGERED
$124.40 RETURNED

NET +$.40 TO DATE.

See ya tomorrow.

[KidCapper]

My top maiden plays for Saturday 9-8-12. Picks made way before scratches.

Belmont Race -2 The :5: 0 for 9 runner has hit the board in 4 of those starts. Drops down a level and returns to 6F today. Owns the highest Bris figure at todays distance to boot. Some things to like at 6-1 on the line.

Calder Race -7 The :1: . Speedster was a step slow in the stakes try last out. Made a big move from off the pace to run 3rd. Back in with friends in this MSW event. Look for an improved speed try from the rail today.

Fairplex Race -6 The :10: . 3rd time off the layoff for a 12% trainer move. Goes from an AW to dirt surface today and puts the blinkers on for another 10% move. Should graduate today.

Hoosier Race -2 The :1: . Ships in from Ellis for 16% shipping trainer. Cuts back to a sprint for the dip into the maiden claiming ranks today. 84 Bris figure at 6F is the field's best too.

Hoosier Race -6 The :5: . The best of what's run in this field of mostly 1st time starters. Gets off the AW surface at Arlington and should improve on the dirt today. 8-1 ML so the price is right here.

Kentucky Downs Race -1 The :5: . Ships in from Ellis for Maker today. Takes the big drop into the maiden claiming ranks for a 24% trainer move. 18% turf trainer has this one pointed in the right direction today.

Laurel Race -11 The :10: . Returns to the turf today after blowing the start in only dirt try last out. Low percentage jockey-trainer combo should keep the price close to the 2-1 ML. Catch if catch can with a clean break.

Parx Race -2 The :3: . 3rd time off the layoff for 12% 2 year old trainer here. Solid 2nd in the slop last out rallying from off the pace. Closing style should suit her well here with plenty of speed signed on. High last race Bris figure and 4-1 sounds good.

Remington Race -9 The :7: . Taking a shot here at 15-1 on the ML. Last a toss with the epic fail on the attempt to make the lead. Reverts to closing style tonight on the drop back in to the Mdn Claiming ranks for a 10% trainer move. Bombs Away!!

Turfway Race -6 The :7: . Ships in from Ellis to the poly today for a 13% trainer move. Cuts back to a sprint today for another 21% trainer angle. Has run races that would take these. 5-2 seems about right.

Good Luck N Good Racing From The KidCapper!!!

[KidCapper]

My top maiden plays for Saturday 9-8-12. Picks made way before scratches.

Belmont Race -2 The :5: Finished 4th

Calder Race -7 The :1: . SCRATCHED

Fairplex Race -6 The :10: . FINISHED 3RD

Hoosier Race -2 The :1: . OFF THE BOARD

Hoosier Race -6 The :5: . FINISHED 3RD

Kentucky Downs Race -1 The :5: . FINISHED 3RD

Laurel Race -11 The :10: . OFF THE BOARD

Parx Race -2 The :3: . OFF THE BOARD

Remington Race -9 The :7: . OFF THE BOARD

Turfway Race -6 The :7: . SCRATCHED


When the best thing that happens to your bets is that 2 of them scratched...it's bad day. The ugly results for day 12...

Saturday 9-08-12
8 PLAYS W 2 SCRATCHES
$16 WAGERED
$0 RETURNED
NET -$16

TOTALS TO DATE
70 PLAYS
$140 WAGERED
$124.40 RETURNED
NET -$15.60

Back in a bit with Sunday plays if anyone's still reading....hahahahaha! :bang:

[KidCapper]

Moving on to Sunday, day 13 of my 100 play maiden voyage. Here are today's top maidens. Picks before scratches:

Arlington Race -6 The :4: . 3rd time off the layoff for a 13% trainer move. Speed to run 2nd over the deep FP track. 1st turf try today and this one is bred to like the green. Drops into the Mdn claiming ranks for a 33% 1st time Mdn claiming trainer. Love the 12-1 ML here.

Belmont Race -1 The :7: Stretches out to the mile today for 15% 1st time routing trainer. Adds the blinkers for another 13% move. Plesa hits at 23% when losing as the favorite last out. Bred to relish to off-going too.

Belmont Race -4 The :8: . 3rd time off the layoff for a 25% Serpe move. Drops down a level for another 38% angle. Has a solid 3rd place finish on an off-track over this surface.

Belmont Race -5 The :3: . Turns back to a sprint for a 14% trainer move. 18% maiden claiming trainer has this one spotted well today. Nice 3F blowout Sept 3rd to get some speed in him. Will need a clean trip.

Belmont Race- 7 The :12: . 400k purchase is bred to love an off-track. Bobbled at the break in last and hung. Rosie takes the call and should be prominent early.

Belmont Race -10 The :1: . Back to back troubles at the break in last 2. Just missed in last turf try. On the muddy main track today and this one has a 2nd place finish over an off-track so that shouldn't be a problem. 3 works since last a good sign of readiness.

Calder Race -3 The :4: . Ran a career high Bris figure (86) when sprinting 6F for the 1st time on a fast track after several failed turf routes. Possibly poorly placed and has always been a sprinter? Going to lead these a long way today.

Woodbine Race -2 The :3: .Drops into the Mdn Clm ranks for the 1st time today, a 36% trainer move. Takes the blinkers off for another 11% move. The cutback to 5F only enhances chances.

Woodbine Race- 4 The :6: . 3rd time off the layoff after 2 so-so poly track tries. 20-1 LM shot returns to the turf for the 1st time in awhile. Has back turf races that could win this. Beat the :7: last out who is 7-2 here. Bombs Away!!

Good Luck N Good Racing From The KidCapper!!

[Robert Fischer]

bel - r1
:2: looks really strong here. Mott has two 1sters and I would guess that the :3: is the only one of the two he has cranked up. No value in that guess because they are only betting the 3.
Betting the 2 ATB and in doubles.

[KidCapper]

Arlington Race -6 The :4: . OFF THE BOARD

Belmont Race -1 The :7: OFF THE BOARD

Belmont Race -4 The :8: . FINISHED 4TH

Belmont Race -5 The :3: . FINISHED 4TH

Belmont Race- 7 The :12: OFF THE BOARD

Belmont Race -10 The :1: . WINNER PAID $7.60

Calder Race -3 The :4: . WINNER PAID $3.20

Woodbine Race -2 The :3: . OFF THE BOARD

Woodbine Race- 4 The :6: . FINISHED 4TH


The downward spiral continues.. another rough day. The damages:

Day 13 Sunday 9-09-12
9 PLAYS
$18 WAGERED
$10.80 RETURNED
NET-$7.20

TOTALS TO DATE:
79 PLAYS
$158 WAGERED
$135.20
NET -$22.80

21 PLAYS left to turn this around. I have learned a bit about my maiden plays during this so all is not lost. Being a pick 3 player, I have never tried just playing certain kinds of races. It's been a good exercise for me. Be back with Mondays plays soon.

[Robert Fischer]

still pretty solid

have a good day and you could be ahead for the project. :ThmbUp:

[KidCapper]

Slow day today with only 4 maiden plays.

Fort Erie Race -3 The :2: . Just missed in 1st start on dirt last out as the favorite. Trainer hits at 33% next out after losing as the fav. 2nd time out for this trainer another 36% angle. Graduation day.

Kentucky Downs Race -1 The :10: . Looks to be speed of the race off the freshening. Threw her career high Bris figure (92) off the break for 12% layoff trainer Howard. Drops from Msw to Mdn clm for another 16% move.

Kentucky Downs Race -4 The :12: . Saratoga shipper for Ward who hits at 26% off the van. Flashed speed vs better off the layoff at Saratoga. Should be the one to catch in here.

Kentucky Downs Race -6 The :3: . Switches trainers to Stall today who hits at 23% with new horses in the barn. Tries the grass for the 1st time another 19% trainer move and another 15% dirt-to-turf. Some things to like.

Good Luck N Good Racing From The KidCapper!!

[KidCapper]

still pretty solid

have a good day and you could be ahead for the project. :ThmbUp:

Thanks! Good Luck today.

[KidCapper]

4 maiden plays.

Fort Erie Race -3 The :2: . Finished 2nd

Kentucky Downs Race -1 The :10: . OFF THE BOARD

Kentucky Downs Race -4 The :12: . FINISHED 3RD

Kentucky Downs Race -6 The :3: . FINISHED 4TH


Bleh 0 for 4. Totals:

Monday day 14 9-10-11
4 plays
$8 WAGERED
$0 RETURNED
NET-$8

TOTALS TO DATE:
83 PLAYS
$166 WAGERED
$135.20 RETURNED
NET-$30.80

HMM I've hit a cold streak here. Back with a couple Tuesday plays soon. Thanks for following along. :)

[KidCapper]

Top maiden plays for Tuesday. Picks before scratches:

Fort Erie Race -9 The :3: . Ships in from Woodbine for new trainer Gonzales who hits at 20% with new horses in the barn. Tries the route for the 1st time today for another 13% move. Double drops in class for an additional 34% angle. 4-1 on the line.

Fairmount Park Race -2 The :7: . Owns the high last out Bris figure of this group. Easily the best of what's run. Jockey-trainer combo on fire as of late. Wins this if the 1sters aren't monsters.

Parx Race -2 The :7: . Major trainer upgrade here to LeBarron who hits at 20% 1st off the claim. Ran a race that would win this last out in the slop finshing a tough 2nd. Graduation day today.

Parx Race -6 The :5: . 2nd off the layoff for a 34% 2nd off the shelf trainer and 29% after losing as the favorite. Flashed speed last out and tired. Should be tighter here.

Good Luck N Good Racing From The KidCapper!!

[Robert Fischer]

in race 4 @ Parx i give the :11: a very good shot to win.

Haven't decided if I am going to play this race. 11 horses and I may only get 5-2 on this 0-10 mdn.

trips are also playing a big role at philly right now. Then again could also see this one winning by 5.:cool:

[RaceBookJoe]

Thx RBJ. I'm more of a pick 3 player but I was going over some old plays and noticed for a short run I had a good run on maiden races. Might of just been a short-term freak thing. Thought I'd test it out here. So far mixed results.

Another question, are you using any maiden races or are you avoiding maiden claimers? You might want to categorize them to see if your results are different in either, same as if big track/small track study. Keep going.

[KidCapper]

Another question, are you using any maiden races or are you avoiding maiden claimers? You might want to categorize them to see if your results are different in either, same as if big track/small track study. Keep going.

Good question. For the purpose of this exercise, I am handicapping all maiden races and picking out the ones I think have a good shot at winning no matter the odds or surface. I have noticed some things along the way that I might change if I do this again. For instance, setting a conditional line because i have noticed alot of bets going off at really unbettable prices. Hope fully I'll finish this one off on a good run and we'll go on from there.

[KidCapper]

Top maiden plays for Tuesday. Picks before scratches:

Fort Erie Race -9 The :3: . WINNER PAID $6.00

Fairmount Park Race -2 The :7: . TOUGH BEAT 2ND

Parx Race -2 The :7: . WINNER PAID $2.20

Parx Race -6 The :5: . OFF THE BOARD


Two winners, a 2nd and an off the board horse. No prices to be had. Pretty much a wash. I need to focus on something I can get a price on. Totals:

Tuesday Day 15 9-11-12
4 PLAYS
$8 WAGERED
$8.20 RETURNED
NET+$.20

TOTALS TO DATE:
87 PLAYS
$174 WAGERED
$143.40
NET-$30.60

On To Wednesday.

[KidCapper]

Maiden plays for Wednesday 9-12-12. Picks before scratches:

Belmont Race -2 The :6: . Taking a shot here at 6-1 on the ML. Showed he could come from off the pace last out to run a close 4th with a troubled trip. Plenty of speed to sit behind today. Like the fact this one can pass horses.

Belmont Race -6 The :5: . Stretches out for the 1st time for Schosberg going sprint to route for a 14% trainer move. 15% on horses trying a route for the 1st time.

Delaware Race -2 The :3: Ships in off a so-so effort at Saratoga last out. Drops in class for Matz who hits at 7% with that move. Reunited with Rocco Jr who almost won with this one 2 back over this surface.

Delaware Race -5 The :1: . 2nd time starter for Dutrow who hits at 29% with 2nd timers. Adds Lasix today for an awesome 43% move. Ships in from a muddy start over the Parx surface for a 30% shipping trainer to boot. Lots to like here.

Fairplex Race -2 The :3: . Switches to new trainer Sise after a long layoff. Trainer is great off the shelf hitting at 35% with the break.(77) Bris figure last out is the field's highest. Fresh speed should be tough here.

Fairplex Race -5 The :8: . Has had a history of poor starts with solid efforts though. If this one can get away clean, she has some talent. Trainer Knight is 2 for 2 over the last 14 days and 19% 1st off the claim. Been freshened for this. We'll take 4-1 here.

Kentucky Downs Race -5 The :12: . Threw his career high Bris figure last out over the Arlington poly. Bred to run all day which suits this marathon distance. Nice 4F workout Sept.5th for Arnold. 8-1 the price is right.

Good Luck N Good Racing From The KidCapper!!

[Robert Fischer]

bel r2 seems a little tricky.

:2: should be stronger today, and got beat by Wild Target , who i am in the minority-but thought WT had a good trip there. I'll take the high% here.

your :6:, the 8

and :4: FTS = i don't want to carried away because of Ramon, but the horse looks really good. If anyone can beat the 2, I'd say it is this 4.

[Robert Fischer]

:D
1 goes off @ 9-5(8-1 ML) and takes money ATB.
Obviously he was working up a storm, bu I didn't really like the horse, guess "they" knew.

good luck rest of the day.

[KidCapper]

Maiden plays for Wednesday 9-12-12.

Belmont Race -2 The :6: . Finished 4th

Belmont Race -6 The :5: . Off the board

Delaware Race -2 The :3: Finished 2nd

Delaware Race -5 The :1: . Scratched

Fairplex Race -2 The :3: . Off the board

Fairplex Race -5 The :8: . Off the board

Kentucky Downs Race -5 The :12: . Winner paid $7.40

Wednesday 9-12-12 Results
6 PLAYS
$12 WAGERED
$7.40 RETURNED
NET-$4.60

TOTALS TO DATE:
93 PLAYS
$186 WAGERED
$150.80 RETURNED
NET-$35.20

Be back with the final 7 plays for Thursday.

[KidCapper]

Belmont Race -9 The :3: . Stretches back out to a route after a solid sprint try at this level. Rudy hits at 17% going from sprint to route with his runners. In light today at 5-1 with the bug up.

Louisiana Downs Race -10 The :1: . 3rd time off the layoff for a 18% trainer move for Trosclair. Owns the highest last out Bris figure when running 3rd at this level.

Remington Race -2 The :7: . Big Brown baby stretches out for the 1st time for 16% 1st time router trainer. Gets Lasix for the 2nd time which is an outstanding 44% trainer angle. Go to jockey Luis Q up for the ride.

Remington Race -5 The :4: . Drops into the Mdn claiming ranks today for the 1st time. A 21% trainer move. Owns the fields high Bris figure in a sprint, an 81 going 5F. Should handle these today.

Turfway Race -5 The :1: . Pid shipper should have no problem with the polytrack here. 3rd time off the layoff for 24% MSW trainer. Gets the hot riding Pedroza up for this.

Fairplex Race -9 The :7: . Steadied at the start in career bow and still ran the best Bris figure of this group. 2nd time starters for this trainer only win 8% of the time but I think this one might be a runner with a clean break.

Hoosier Race -9 The :7: . 15-1 ML shot here. 3rd time off the layoff. Going sprint to route for an 13% trainer angle. Price is going to be right here. Stalker should sit a good trip here.

Good Luck N Good Racing From The KidCapper!!

[KidCapper]

Belmont Race -9 The :3: . WINNER PAID $9.60

Louisiana Downs Race -10 The :1: . OFF THE BOARD

Remington Race -2 The :7: . FINISHED 2ND

Remington Race -5 The :4: OFF THE BOARD

Turfway Race -5 The :1: . OFF THE BOARD

Fairplex Race -9 The :7: . FINISHED 3RD

Hoosier Race -9 The :7: . FINISHED 4TH



TOTALS FOR THE 100 PLAY TEST
100 PLAYS
$200 WAGERED
$160.40 RETURNED
NET-$39.60
NUMBER OF WINNERS: 27 OUT OF 100
AVERAGE WINNER PAID $5.94

Was an interesting test. Learned some things about my maiden plays. My average win payoff was low. Came up with too many career maidens to play. May try this again later with some different criteria.

Thanks for following along if you did.

KidCapper

[davew]

I followed and feel it was brave of you.

For me, maidens are the most difficult to handicap because they are learning, inconsistent, unpredictible and usually there is not much information available to handicappers.

I am guessing that the favorites do worse than other races as the few that look good, get played by too many people (big underlays)

[Scrambler]

Ditto For Me K- Capper.. They are without A Doubt The HARDEST to Cap.. Great Job...

I Think you should do one with Stone cold Favorites,(Winners) I Mean stand out winner for 100 Races.. Example the # 6 in the 2nd at Belmont today, Ect..
And see what your ROI is, I Bet you could sweep the 100...

As always my Friend Great Capping....:ThmbUp: