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LemonSoupKid
08-27-2012, 01:44 PM
Gentlemen,

I've really grown in my fondness and success multirace wagers, particularly in the pick 4, over the last few seasons. I generally confine myself to big racing days (Triple Crown, Travers, Breeders Cup) not only from an excitement and quality point of view but also because the handles are so huge I figure you can take advantage of a relative amount of "dumb money". My hunch would be that multirace would attract less foolish money than WPS betting, but I still think it attracts more action and thus more possibilities to win big.

Does anyone here follow rules about how much they wager? Cover? Only play tickets with singles?

I won and/or was live on mutiple race wagers including the pick 4s both days at Saratoga. Being live to 8,9,10,11 in the Travers was a rush especially since Fast Falcon actually turned out to have a great chance there and the payout was large.

Any ideas or suggestions to refine my plays would be appreciated. Thanks in advance for your time and help.

Best,

LemonSoupKid

Dahoss9698
08-27-2012, 01:56 PM
I would highly recommend reading Steve Crist's book Exotic Betting if you haven't already. Really helped me fine tune how I was playing.

thaskalos
08-27-2012, 02:15 PM
IMO...the biggest mistake people make when playing the Pick-4 is that they consider it to be very similar to a Pick-3, and they play it the same way...and with about the same bankroll.

You need a much bigger bankroll for the Pick-4, IMO, because -- regardless of the fact that it includes only one more race than the Pick-3 -- the Pick-4 is a much riskier wager.

Track Phantom
08-27-2012, 02:37 PM
I have a personal preference on how to play pick 4's. If possible, I like to start with a single and would really like it if that single is over 3-1. I somewhat treat the first leg like a win bet. If it wins, I'm alive and gained seperation.

I usually go deeper in the 2nd and 3rd legs and will thin out a bit in the last leg. I will do some hedging if I'm alive to that race.

Obviously, the races dictate the best way to play but the above strategy is my preferred method. If I really want to generate some excitement, I may go single/all/all/single. Assuming each middle leg is 8 horses, it would be a $32 bet.

Bankroll and risk tolerance are main contributors, as well.

LemonSoupKid
08-27-2012, 03:08 PM
Thanks boys

I have Barry Meadow's old book too, it was a good read and I'll probably look over it again. I can't even consider the pick 6 yet until I am OK with dropping 1-2k.

Thaskalos, is that "work to eat and steal what you don't have"?

thaskalos
08-27-2012, 03:11 PM
Thanks boys

I have Barry Meadow's old book too, it was a good read and I'll probably look over it again. I can't even consider the pick 6 yet until I am OK with dropping 1-2k.

Thaskalos, is that "work to eat and steal what you don't have"?

"Work to eat and steal to save".

It was my father's way of saying that being honest can have a detrimental effect on a man's finances...

He was as honest as they come, and he has been gone for many years.

This signature comment reminds me of him. :)

LemonSoupKid
08-27-2012, 03:20 PM
Can you theoretically write off all of your losing tickets if you were to hit for a big sum on a multi-race that was subsequently reported at the time of payout? Or is there typically a maximum amount you can write off?

It bothers me greatly that the track takes 25% on exotics and then you get taxed on your winnings as income on top of that. It should be a capital gain at 15% at worst ... it's an investment not a brainless activity like the lotto.

thaskalos
08-27-2012, 03:24 PM
Can you theoretically write off all of your losing tickets if you were to hit for a big sum on a multi-race that was subsequently reported at the time of payout? Or is there typically a maximum amount you can write off?

It bothers me greatly that the track takes 25% on exotics and then you get taxed on your winnings as income on top of that. It should be a capital gain at 15% at worst ... it's an investment not a brainless activity like the lotto.

I agree...and I told the IRS agent this all three times that I was audited.

But he wasn't amused...

Striker
08-27-2012, 03:31 PM
Gentlemen,

I figure you can take advantage of a relative amount of "dumb money".

A big factor for me is when that applies to the 1st leg of pk4 sequence. Eliminating all the tickets that singled the odds on favorite in the opening leg of a multi race wager usually leads to a decent payout. Example yesterday in late pk4 at Arlington where there was a 27k carryover into sunday. In that first leg the #2 was even money without ever having raced on polytrack and also has shown to be more of a closer in her first 3 races. The fact that this race was moved off the turf to 1 1/16 on the poly where there is a short stretch with the alternate finish line puts her at a disadvantage for her running style shown so far. She loses and a 6-1 led off the late pick4, followed by a 5-2, a 4-1, and a 5-1. Now no post time favorite won in this sequence which always will help but IMO the key was having the even money shot go down in the 1st leg that led to the late pk 4 paying $1k for 50cents.

tbwinner
08-27-2012, 04:45 PM
I only bet Pick fours in the following two ways, and the strategy/reasoning behind them differ a bit.

1) When I have a mid-to-high priced horse as my best bet of the day that I not only end up focusing the majority of my allowable % of bankroll on for the day, but also incorporate into a multiple race (usually pick Four) wager to create additional value. This usually means I have to be confident in at least 1 or 2 of the other legs, to keep ticket cost down. I LOVE sequences that involve the very contentious races where either A) there is one big favorite that is vulnerable or B) the odds are completely spread and no single clearcut favorite, because those are the races I love hitting the ALL button on. Usually this ticket structure results in 1x3x4x9 (or similar) which costs $54.00 for a 50-cent wager (as an example).

2) When there is a very big favorite that I believe will suffer from A) track condition B) overhype or C) the horse is just not that good. This can be in a stakes race or simple 5,000 claimer. An example was yesterday I thought Royal Delta was vulnerable. Because of the inherent risks involved with 'redboarding' here, I won't say whether I hit the pick four or not. But my strategy was using an ALL in that race (sometimes including the big fave or not...it depends whether I perceive value can be achieve still with the other legs) and using the contenders in the other legs. This ticket usually ends up costing a bit more than how I said in strategy #1, but, not surprisingly, my biggest Pick four hits have come from this strategy. And, I do not use this method very often (plays like this only come up once or twice a month...and I play 2-3x a week).


One thing I do not like about some gamblers (and know a lot of them) are the ones that play EVERY type of wager, just because it is offered. It is plain stupid to play a pick four when you don't have a specific, disciplined plan (or especially a separate bankroll) behind playing the Pick Fours.

LemonSoupKid
08-27-2012, 08:02 PM
I agree...and I told the IRS agent this all three times that I was audited.

But he wasn't amused...

So is there a limit with the feds or most states with the amount of writeoff, are you aware?

Si2see
08-28-2012, 06:14 PM
I would highly recommend reading Steve Crist's book Exotic Betting if you haven't already. Really helped me fine tune how I was playing.


This has helped me as well... Also on big race days, mostly whoever has the best card on a saturday, I always play a backup ticket to my main pick4. I play the pick4 for 50cent any track where available so there is less of a chance of signing an easily hit ticket.

My main travers pick4 was as follows.
race 9- 50 cent pick4 26 / 35679 / 1379 / 56910
That was an $80 wager for 50 cent. As you can see I missed the favorite in the second leg, and missed the dead heat longshot in the last leg.

Now here is my backup ticket
race 9- 50 cent pick4 2 / 8 / 1 7 / all
That was only $11 !!! I figured if the 2 was really the best in leg one the way they were betting her to be, and since I left baffert off leg 2 of the big ticket I had to single him, but my logic was to pick the best 2 double digit horses in the 3rd leg, because that would be the only way it would pay more than the $11 I spent on the ticket. Sometimes it isn't worth playing huge tickets just to have a winner, I had under $100 in the total wagered and hit for $495.

Hope that helps. Jason

LemonSoupKid
08-29-2012, 09:10 AM
Thanks, Jason.

I learned that a while back about cashing a chalky pick 4, the not-so-hard way (because I won). I still think I lost on the overall ticket or at best pushed. I noticed that it would happen it would be on an off day of races, maybe when there was only 1 stakes race or mid range races (not nags or all grade 1s).

I've noticed I'm getting better and better at it, particularly in my construction but I feel maybe I'm not taking enough shots with singles or 2 horses in a leg given fear and the hope of a bomb hitting in that race to make the ticket really promising.

On Travers day I had the trifecta in the first leg and predicted the whole race absolutely perfectly, essentially 1-2-3-4. I had Contested with a B right behind him. In race 11 I only had 1 ticket with Willy B, but the two other stretch running 10-1 (Fort Loudon and leader Dr. Chit) were close ... and it turned out that my random play of Fast Falcon actually might have been the right pick, still probably should have hit that

Hey, it was exciting.

Has anyone ever felt that they should just play pick 3s and pick 4s on a card and not spend as much time worrying about WPS or exactas unless they absolutely LOVE someone to win.

Also, what did it eventually take to make anyone consider the pick 6? The consolation 5of6 is a nice twist, however tough it may be to hit ...

therussmeister
08-29-2012, 12:44 PM
So is there a limit with the feds or most states with the amount of writeoff, are you aware?
You can deduct an amount equal to your winnings. This assumes you are itemizing deductions. Individual states may have different rules, I believe Illinois does not allow you to deduct any losses unless you file as a professional.