Saturday Afternoon Live! Picks & Analysis

[Teach]

I'll be back at 11:25 with my Race One picks.

Teach

[Robert Fischer]

What a great card Teach.

[Teach]

Race One:

I‘m going to be a “wise guy” and try to beat “the logical.” I just can’t bet a 3-to-4 shot. I‘m picking :3: Dehere of The Cat. He was third in his last on a muddy track about a month ago. Prior to that he was second at a mile at Belmont (I like the "turn-back"). I’m sure this 3-year-old Dehere-bred colt can get the distance. My only question: Does he need to stretch out even more? In any event, I believe he can be there. Can he win? I‘m pickin' him. Rajiv Maragh for Mike Trombetta.


:13: Brigand


is “the logical.” This A.P. Indy-bred colt is a peripatetic, transcontinental “shipper” who’s taken “the red-eye” more times than a frequent flyer. On paper, he looks very tough (second in The Jerome, last spring). Yet his most recent race in late July (he was the two-to-one fave in that one), was nuthin to write home about; he finished fifth. Although he will likely be the odds-on choice, I’m frankly concerned about him getting the distance. Rafael Bejarano for Bob Baffert.



:11: Jeter


failed at a mile in his last; he now cuts back a furlong. That should help. The Lawyer Ron-bred gelding was second at this distance at Belmont in May. The horse has the services of one of the best jockeys on the NYRA circuit, “The “Caracas Caballero,” Senor Rrramon Dominguez. Rick Dutrow trains.



:12: Preachintothedevil


has been away from the races “for the longest time” (thank you, Billy Joel). Yet this 4-year-old A.P. Indy-bred colt has a degree of back-class. He ran in last year’s Albany; he finished third. The colt’s morning works have been very good. They seem to indicate -- "I’m ready!" He’s one-for-one at the distance. Could he…might he, surprise at a price! Jockey David Cohen is in the irons for trainer Gary Contessa.

[Robert Fischer]

Good luck

i think the :3: or :11: have a chance to catch :13:

3/11/10/13 ex

not betting this race

[Robert Fischer]

7.20 ex couldn't take that to start the day.

could have bet the 11 ATB as I did think he was legit , while others did not.

[Teach]

Race Two:



:6: Honorable Dillon

came four-wide in the stretch and finished third in his only start in late July. Since then, the colt has had a mixed bag of morning works. However, he does look like a player here. Jose Lezcano for Eddie Kenneally.



:4: Delhomme


is a Dixieland Band-bred first-time starter. John Velazquez is in the irons for Todd Pletcher. Solid morning work-tab. He had a very sharp :59.1 for five panels, handily from the gate. His dam has one winner from one starter.



:8: Hot West


did little in his only start (he was fractious in the post parade). I’m willing to give him a chance that he’s learned to mind his manners. Junior Alvarado for Nick Zito.



:7: Howie’s Tiz


is a Tiznow-bred colt. The horse has had some decent morning works. His dam had one winner from three starters. Joel Rosario rides for Bruce Levine.

[Robert Fischer]

Is McLaughlin DUE or what to unleash a good Bernardini?? :1: Barn is peaking right now.

But this :4: is just a monster.

[Robert Fischer]

:3: is a big price here for a longshot

[Robert Fischer]

Race Two:



:6: Honorable Dillon

came four-wide in the stretch and finished third in his only start in late July. Since then, the colt has had a mixed bag of morning works. However, he does look like a player here. Jose Lezcano for Eddie Kenneally.






Good Call

ran A LOT better than I expected. Was also surprised @ how much $$ the :6: took. :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

:6::4::7::8:

looks like you called the Superfecta

[Robert Fischer]

hard to say, but Joel Rosario on your :7: HOWIE'S TIZ could have been a tip off. I would think he rides for the :1: and not Rajiv Maragh otherwise.

[frankcolt]

Saratoga Race 3
:9: w p 20.00
:4: :9: exactor box
:7: :4: :9: tri box
:4: :5: :9: tri box

I bet in comes in :4: :5: :7: I better bet that too

[Teach]

Race Three:

:5: Chuckle (remember the candy bar) has one race under his belt. A third in the slop at seven furlongs. In that one, the "trouble line" said he got away slowly, buit closed willingly. Well, the Forty Niner-bred colt now stretches out on the turf. The horse's pedigree says he should handle the lawn. His dam had one winner from two starters and opner Turf winner. Junior Alvarado for the Hall of Fame trainer, Bill Mott.

:9: O'Prado Ole, as cited in the DRF, is both well-bred for a route and a sharp four-furlong turf work. Jose Lezcano will be looking for two straight on today's card when he climbs aboard this El Prado-bred colt for Dale Romans.

:3: Secretive could be a surprise factor. The horse has solid turf breeding and appears from his pedigree to be able to get the distance. Joel Rosario for "Shug" McGaughey.

:4: Saint Vigeur is another horse with a chance to hit the tote in this grass route. The Giant's Causeway-bred colt is supported by the red-hot combo of jockey Javier Castellano and trainer Chad Brown.

[Robert Fischer]

:4: should be right there in this race.

:2:
:6:
:9:

[Robert Fischer]

Race Three:

:3: Secretive could be a surprise factor. The horse has solid turf breeding and appears from his pedigree to be able to get the distance. Joel Rosario for "Shug" McGaughey.

You had the longshot...

wish I had some balls there, I played it safe and passed, good prices.

[frankcolt]

well that didn't work out

[Capper Al]

Sar Race 4 -- Let's tempt faith with a bridge jumper. #11 to show.

[Teach]

Race Four:

:11: Cinematize is the logical. I think there’s little doubt that she should be there. The question however remains: Can she get the six furlongs? The Tale Of The Cat-bred filly has a second, fourth and a third at the six-panels distance. Ramon Dominguez for Tony Dutrow.

:6: Rakin The Gold is my try at a longshot. Admittedly, a gambler’s throw. Obviously, with first-timers, you’re not sure what you’re gonna get. I like the Storm Cat-bred filly’s pedigree. I also think that Junior Alvarado is most capable. Trainer Dom Schettino has a good record with first-time starters. The filly has had some solid recent works. I like the turf workout leading up to the main track race. The dam, Obsession For Gold, does have four winners from seven starters. Take a look at the board for any clues.

:5: Rapidize turns back a furlong after finishing second in a maiden special at Tampa almost five months ago. The lengthy hiatus between starts is concerning, but this Touch Gold-bred filly has put in several good morning works in preparation for her return to the races. Mike Luzzi is in the irons for trainer Glenn DiSanto.

:13: Divadora is another longshot try. The filly is cutting back a furlong; that should help. She finished third in this company a couple weeks ago at “The Spa”. This Pleasant Colony-bred filly may well benefit from a dry racing surface. David Cohen for Jim Lawrence II.

[Capper Al]

Sar Race 4 -- Let's tempt faith with a bridge jumper. #11 to show.

I'm changing my mind. Let's bridge jump with #5 to show.

[frankcolt]

:9: 5 win place

[Robert Fischer]

Sar Race 4 -- Let's tempt faith with a bridge jumper. #11 to show.

i'm with you here:jump:

[Robert Fischer]

somebody bet about ~15K on the 11 in the gate.

knocked down from ~2.50 to ~2.20 probables

[Robert Fischer]

still only pays 2.20 even with the 10 in there...
maybe a round-down 2.26 or something :D

may have just been an even $10,000 in a single bet, but 20K+ came in after off flash. usually can guess along pretty well

[Capper Al]

I'm changing my mind. Let's bridge jump with #5 to show.

Over the bridge I go. :jump:

[Capper Al]

Let's bridge jump with #12 to show in race 5 in Sar. I'm wet. It's not a big deal now.

[Teach]

Race Five:

:13: Reload

was last seen running in the Curlin at Saratoga on a sloppy track. The Danzig-bred colt finished fifth in a field of six, some thirty lengths back. I think that race can be tossed out as an aberration. The colt is now cutting back and is in with the kind he should be able to handle. Johnny V. for “Shug” McGaughey.



:12: Rigby

turned in a sterling effort against weaker in his last. The Gone West-bred horse should find this field more of a challenge. Ramon Dominguez for Steve Asmussen.


:7: Major Gain


is another horse who’s cutting back. The Southern Halo-bred colt was third in his last. He had a recent sharp work in which he drilled a half-mile in a blistering :46.2. Jose Lezcano rides for Wayne Catalano.



:4: Mulheb


is cutting back after finishing fourth at a mile at Belmont a couple months ago. Prior to that the A.P. Indy-bred colt won at one mile and a sixteenth. The horse has had a mixed bag of morning works. Alan Garcia for Kiaran McLaughlin.

[Robert Fischer]

Ramon is probably a better handicapper of this race than I am. :12: Rigby ran away from the field last out, comes back for Travers day card.

:10: tipped his hand w/ the 8/14 work and will be right there.

several others can fill out the exotics :1: , :4: offer the most bang for buck.

[Robert Fischer]

:1::4::9::10::12::13: ex bx = $30
probably a dumb bet

[Robert Fischer]

Race Five:

:13: Reload

:12: Rigby



good call

[Teach]

Race Six:

:8: Tap Twenty One finished second in a seven-furlong race that was taken off the turf and run on the main. She now tries the lawn for the first time. This well-named Pulpit-bred filly has the turf pedigree to handle the grass at first asking. Julien Leparoux for “Rusty” Arnold.

:1: Wave Theory is a regally bred-for-the-turf filly who is capable of competing for all the mazuma at first asking. Jose Lezcano rides for the razor-sharp trainer, Chad Brown.

:3: Flashy Gal is a well-bred firster out of the Chad Brown barn. Javier Castellabo gets the assignment on this Mr. Prospector-bred filly.

:5: She's Not Lazy is a Tiznow-bred filly who looks like she can get the distance. The 2-year-old filly had a solid five panel work earlier this week. She appears ready. Rosie Napravnik for Graham Motion.

[Mr G]

Race 6

$40.00 to SHOW on the bomb #5--She's Not Lazy 14-1

$1.00 tri box 2-5-8

Edit to add $1.00 EX BOX 1-2-5-8

[Robert Fischer]

don not like the 8 and 2 here.

:3: flashy gal is the horse to beat

3 / all , all / 3 exacta = $18

:4: is a huge value on the board @ 25-1 should run

[Robert Fischer]

I need to just box your selections Teach. ;)
:ThmbUp:

Race Six:

:8: Tap Twenty One finished second in a seven-furlong race that was taken off the turf and run on the main. She now tries the lawn for the first time. This well-named Pulpit-bred filly has the turf pedigree to handle the grass at first asking. Julien Leparoux for “Rusty” Arnold.

:1: Wave Theory is a regally bred-for-the-turf filly who is capable of competing for all the mazuma at first asking. Jose Lezcano rides for the razor-sharp trainer, Chad Brown.

:3: Flashy Gal is a well-bred firster out of the Chad Brown barn. Javier Castellabo gets the assignment on this Mr. Prospector-bred filly.

:5: She's Not Lazy is a Tiznow-bred filly who looks like she can get the distance. The 2-year-old filly had a solid five panel work earlier this week. She appears ready. Rosie Napravnik for Graham Motion.

[Teach]

Race Seven::9: Gossip Column gets the tepid nod in a wide-open turf route. The Fusaichi Pegasus-bred gelding has won once and been second twice in recent starts at the mile and one-sixteenth distance. Ramon Dominguez rides for Joe Orseno. :2: Sneaky Kitten looks like the main threat. The El Prado-bred colt has a first, second and a third in three lifetime turf tries. Javier Castellano for Mike Maker. :11: Stephen’s Revenge is another contender. The Stephen Got Even-bred gelding is five for eight on the lawn; he has a a win and two seconds at the distance, Edgar Prado for Barclay Tagg. :6: Kharafa gets Lasix. The Mr. Prospector-bred colt had no kick in the stretch in his last. He can make amends here in a field in which he fits very well. Julien Leparoux rides for trainer Tim Hills.

[Mr G]

Race 7

$20.00 to SHOW on 8 @ 32-1

$80.00 to Show on 6 @ 5-1

[Robert Fischer]

Race 7

$20.00 to SHOW on 8 @ 32-1

$80.00 to Show on 6 @ 5-1

$$$

[Teach]

Race Eight:

:7: Kanagaro has hit the tote in eight straight races. The In Excess-bred gelding is eight for nine on the lawn. The horse‘s connections switch to the high perecentage jockey, Javier Castellanos for trainer Tom Albertrani

:11: Optimizer is a major threat. The A.P. Indy-bred colt has been in an array of stakes race, e,g. all three Triple Crown races, without much to show for his efforts. Yet, in this field the three-yerar-old colt has a distinct chance of getting his picture taken. In his three turf starts, he’s won and finished second. Joel Rosario gets aboard to help this horse get “off the schneid” and into the winner’s circle. D. Wayne Lukas (not having a particularly notable meet) is the trainer.

:10: Arc Above had to alter course be still finished fourth, a length off the winner, in his last at a mile an eighth. Any slight improvement off that last trip puts this Kris S.-Bred colt in thje thick of things. Ramon Dominguez for Christophe Clement.

:3: Film Making is used to running these longer turf distance races. The Storm Cat-bred colt adds blinkers., The colt hasn’t been out for a while, but his morning works are good. Can be a factor. Edgar Prado for Jim Baker.

[rstone]

I like Optimizer :11:

[turninforhome10]

Sar Race 8 5wp :6:
1 ex box :8: :9: :10:

[Mr G]

$$$

Yes, put me up $10.00 for the two races.

Race 8

$40.00 to SHOW on #8 Devon Rock @ 9-1

[Teach]

The Guaranteed Pick-4:

Race Nine:

:5: Summer Soiree

:4: Hungary Island

:2: Zagora

:6: Tapitsfly

Race Ten:

:5: Beautiful But Blue

:8: Contested

:10: Amie's Dini

:3: Book Review

Race Eleven:

:7: Ever So Lucky

:9: Trinniberg

:3: Currency Swap

:4: Fourt loudon

Race Twelve:

:5: Street Life

:6: Alpha

:7: Atigun

:4: Stealcase

Race 12:

:7: Night Site

:12: Kris Royal

:13: Hogue

:2: Ruthless Alley

[Mr G]

Race 10

$20 Win on #7 Gypsy Robin @ 13-1

$40.00 Place on 7

$1.00 Tri's 3-8 with ALL with 7 $16.00
$1.00 Tri ALL with 3,8 with 7 $16.00

[Mr G]

Race 11

$6.00 Ex Box 1-2-9

$60.00 to SHOW on #2.. Gun Boat @ 10-1

[Mr G]

Race 12


$20.00 to WIN on 1-2-5-7

$80.00 to SHOW on 2

$40.00 to SHOW on 1

[Mr G]

Now down for the afternoon but man when I watched it live I thought Ramon and Alpha nipped Golden Ticket...but then watching the first reply I thought Golden Ticket nipped Alpha.

Freakin Dead Heat.....

Ramon still O-W-N-S Saratoga.

[Mr G]

The last race at the SPA and going to need something to turn the afternoon from a down day to an UP day.

Race 13

$60.00 to SHOW on #4 Reflecting @ 8-1

$40.00 to SHOW on #13 Hogue @ 12-1

[Mr G]

Well another afternoon in the books....unfortunately this one goes into the red book :bang: