Does Del Mar pay LESS!

[GreenPlant]

I noticed that horse payouts at Saratoga are frequently $7.50 to place or $3.10 to show. Would these same payouts be $7.40 and $3.00 at Del Mar?
Can anybody please explain.
Thank You
GP

[lamboguy]

I noticed that horse payouts at Saratoga are frequently $7.50 to place or $3.10 to show. Would these same payouts be $7.40 and $3.00 at Del Mar?
Can anybody please explain.
Thank You
GPwithout a doubt you are correct. if the true price of the horse is $7.59 you would get $7.40.

This is one big break that NYRA gives you by paying the dime. but being able to pick them is another story, the racing in New York is very tough

[Ocala Mike]

NYRA breaks to the nickel, while DMR breaks to the dime. Assuming the same commission rate on WPS wagers in each jurisdiction (and I'm not sure of that), your supposition is correct.

[Jeff P]

Del Mar also charges higher takeout on EXACTAS than Saratoga does.

22.68% DMR
18.50% SAR

How does this play out?

Let's say for the sake of argument that the total amount bet into an exacta pool is exactly $400k. Let's further say for the sake of argument that two impossible long shots run one-two and that you are the only bettor with the foresight to catch that exacta.

If the race were run at Del Mar your payout would be $309,280 calculated as follows:

Payout= $400,000 - (0.2268 x 400,000)
-or-
Payout = $309,280


However, if the race were run at Saratoga your payout would be $326,000 calculated as follows:

Payout= $400,000 - (0.1850 x 400,000)
-or-
Payout = $326,000




-jp

.

[Stillriledup]

This is one of the great things about betting races in NY, the better breakage. Steve Crist pushed for this a long while and got it done. So far, California hasnt found their version of Steve Crist yet.

[Jeff P]

Same race and pool size as the one in my previous post. But instead of two impossible long shots running one-two let's say for the sake of argument that it's two longshots. Let's further say that you are one of 1000 lucky players holding a $1.00 exacta ticket with the winning combination on it.

If the race were run at Del Mar, the $1.00 exacta pays: $309.20 (with dime breakage.)

If the race were run at Saratoga, the $1.00 exacta pays $326.00.

All else being equal, the exacta player at Del Mar is getting the worst of it.


-jp

.

[Stillriledup]

Same race and pool size as the one in my previous post. But instead of two impossible long shots running one-two let's say for the sake of argument that it's two longshots. Let's further say that you are one of 1000 lucky players holding a $1.00 exacta ticket with the winning combination on it.

If the race were run at Del Mar, the $1.00 exacta pays: $309.20 (with dime breakage.)

If the race were run at Saratoga, the $1.00 exacta pays $326.00.

All else being equal, the exacta player at Del Mar is getting the worst of it.


-jp

.

Not to mention that the pools are smaller and thus, you might 'depress' your own price quicker than you will at Saratoga and of course, you're betting plastic for the most part.

You gotta really love a race to invest your exacta money at DMR over Saratoga.

[GMB@BP]

Not to mention that the pools are smaller and thus, you might 'depress' your own price quicker than you will at Saratoga and of course, you're betting plastic for the most part.

You gotta really love a race to invest your exacta money at DMR over Saratoga.

The pools at Del Mar are 11 million per day on average, if you cant make sizable bets there then its just about hopeless to find pools to bet in beyond Saratoga.

Everyone should know exactly what bets to play at each track according to the takeout.

Why bet the pick four at Saratoga at double the price as the pick 5 at del mar for half the tax, if you look at the parlays its not close to which one you should be playing.

Only and idiot would bet turf paradise to win, but the exacta's are not nearly as penal.

[cj]

Breakage changes in New York according to the odds.

[Stillriledup]

The pools at Del Mar are 11 million per day on average, if you cant make sizable bets there then its just about hopeless to find pools to bet in beyond Saratoga.

Everyone should know exactly what bets to play at each track according to the takeout.

Why bet the pick four at Saratoga at double the price as the pick 5 at del mar for half the tax, if you look at the parlays its not close to which one you should be playing.

Only and idiot would bet turf paradise to win, but the exacta's are not nearly as penal.

True, they're big, but we're talking about extra dimes and nickels here and there. If you have a 20 dollar exa box on an exa that pays 200 for a buck, theres a good chance you'll knock down your price a few bucks more than you will knock that same price down at Toga, for example.

The DMR pick 5 is a much better bet than the Toga pick 4, no doubt.

[Jeff P]

The pools at Del Mar are 11 million per day on average, if you cant make sizable bets there then its just about hopeless to find pools to bet in beyond Saratoga...

Using the same example race, $400k exacta pool, and 1000 winning tickets from post #6 above, suppose for the sake of argument that one additional player manages to get a bet down just before the race off. Let's further say for the sake of argument that this player's ticket is a $50.00 straight exacta and that he nails the winning exacta combo cold.

There is an additional $50 in the pool and 1050 winning $1.00 exacta tickets instead of 1000.

Here's how the payoffs shake out:

If the race were run at DMR:

$1.00 Payoff = (400,050 - (400,050 x 0.2268)) / 1050
-or-
$1.00 Payoff = $294.40 (breaking to the nearest dime and down from $309.20 without the additional $50 bet.)


If the race were run at SAR:

$1.00 Payoff = (400,050 - (400,050 x 0.1850)) / 1050
-or-
$1.00 Payoff = $310.50 (breaking to the nearest nickel and down from $326.00 without the additional $50 bet.)



Even in a $400k pool the exotics player who really likes something has the ability to knock his own payoff down. Also, keep in mind that $400k is a nice sized exacta pool. Saratoga's are that big with some regularity. Del Mar not so much (and one could argue the higher takeout and breakage has something to do with that.)



-jp

.

[lamboguy]

del-mar has quinella's in every race and that directly takes away from the exacta pools. they also have the pick-5 and superfecta's in almost every race.

the best way to increase handle would be to eliminate some of the exotic wagers, mainly the ones with the higher takeouts.

[Jeff P]

The feature at DMR from this past Saturday - the Gr1 Del Mar Oaks...

Pool totals as listed in the Equibase chart:

Exacta: $268,681
Quinella: $15,967

Other races on the card similar.





-jp

.

[GreenPlant]

I love how you break down the math in clear concise examples!

[davew]

CA needs more head to head match-ups

I love coinflip type bets that with track take and breakage, you need to win 2/3s to break-even

Hmm, maybe that isn't very good for the bettor


Jeff P, does your example cover net pool pricing? or does it have ant effect?

[Mr G]

Using the same example race, $400k exacta pool, and 1000 winning tickets from post #6 above, suppose for the sake of argument that one additional player manages to get a bet down just before the race off. Let's further say for the sake of argument that this player's ticket is a $50.00 straight exacta and that he nails the winning exacta combo cold.

There is an additional $50 in the pool and 1050 winning $1.00 exacta tickets instead of 1000.

Here's how the payoffs shake out:

If the race were run at DMR:

$1.00 Payoff = (400,050 - (400,050 x 0.2268)) / 1050
-or-
$1.00 Payoff = $294.40 (breaking to the nearest dime and down from $309.20 without the additional $50 bet.)


If the race were run at SAR:

$1.00 Payoff = (400,050 - (400,050 x 0.1850)) / 1050
-or-
$1.00 Payoff = $310.50 (breaking to the nearest nickel and down from $326.00 without the additional $50 bet.)



Even in a $400k pool the exotics player who really likes something has the ability to knock his own payoff down. Also, keep in mind that $400k is a nice sized exacta pool. Saratoga's are that big with some regularity. Del Mar not so much (and one could argue the higher takeout and breakage has something to do with that.)



-jp

.

Interesting....I have a question if I may....using your example of wagering $50.00 on a straight exacta and hitting it with a payoff for a $1.00 of $310.50 ( using your Saratoga figure ) your $50.00 exacta winning ticket is now worth $ 15,525.00.

So you go to the window with your one ticket for $50.00 to cash in.....does a signer take place? How about you place the same $50 exacta wager online from the comfort of home....for example, I place it through my NYRA Rewards Account....am I going to receive gambling winnings forms at year enddue to that single $50.00 exacta wager I made?

What if the payoff for a $1.00 was $245.00. Since it is one wager but for $50.00 are you going to get hit with reporting?

Thanks.

[cj]

Interesting....I have a question if I may....using your example of wagering $50.00 on a straight exacta and hitting it with a payoff for a $1.00 of $310.50 ( using your Saratoga figure ) your $50.00 exacta winning ticket is now worth $ 15,525.00.

So you go to the window with your one ticket for $50.00 to cash in.....does a signer take place? How about you place the same $50 exacta wager online from the comfort of home....for example, I place it through my NYRA Rewards Account....am I going to receive gambling winnings forms at year enddue to that single $50.00 exacta wager I made?

What if the payoff for a $1.00 was $245.00. Since it is one wager but for $50.00 are you going to get hit with reporting?

Thanks.

Report gambling winnings on Form W-2G if the winnings reduced, at the option of the payer, by the wager are $600 or more, and at least 300 times the amount of the wager

[Rutgers]

If the race were run at SAR:

$1.00 Payoff = (400,050 - (400,050 x 0.1850)) / 1050
-or-
$1.00 Payoff = $310.50 (breaking to the nearest nickel and down from $326.00 without the additional $50 bet.)

.

Following up on CJ’s point (post# 9), at that level of payoff at NY tracks the breakage is not nickel breakage, but quarter breakage.

It does not impact the payout in the example, nor does it change the point that Jeff P. was making.

The breakage is established by state law in NY and applies to NYRA, Finger Lakes, and all harness tracks. (actually 3 state laws since each have their own separate statutes)

[GMB@BP]

Even in a $400k pool the exotics player who really likes something has the ability to knock his own payoff down. Also, keep in mind that $400k is a nice sized exacta pool. Saratoga's are that big with some regularity. Del Mar not so much (and one could argue the higher takeout and breakage has something to do with that.)



-jp

.

So if socal's pools are not going to cut it, and you have a play somewhere else other than NYRA, were would you suggest you can make a play and not have it affect the odds to greatly?

I don't need to address the math, thats obvious.

[dilanesp]

Using the same example race, $400k exacta pool, and 1000 winning tickets from post #6 above, suppose for the sake of argument that one additional player manages to get a bet down just before the race off. Let's further say for the sake of argument that this player's ticket is a $50.00 straight exacta and that he nails the winning exacta combo cold.

There is an additional $50 in the pool and 1050 winning $1.00 exacta tickets instead of 1000.

Here's how the payoffs shake out:

If the race were run at DMR:

$1.00 Payoff = (400,050 - (400,050 x 0.2268)) / 1050
-or-
$1.00 Payoff = $294.40 (breaking to the nearest dime and down from $309.20 without the additional $50 bet.)


If the race were run at SAR:

$1.00 Payoff = (400,050 - (400,050 x 0.1850)) / 1050
-or-
$1.00 Payoff = $310.50 (breaking to the nearest nickel and down from $326.00 without the additional $50 bet.)



Even in a $400k pool the exotics player who really likes something has the ability to knock his own payoff down. Also, keep in mind that $400k is a nice sized exacta pool. Saratoga's are that big with some regularity. Del Mar not so much (and one could argue the higher takeout and breakage has something to do with that.)



-jp

.

There's a fallacy here. "Knocking your payoff down" is a matter of perception, based on checking the odds, betting, and then seeing the price go down.

In reality, however, betting is a dynamic process, and there are other people at the track who are betting at the same time you are, and on different horses and combinations. Your bet that "drives the odds down" may very well be offset by other people's bets that "drive your odds up". Whereas at the track with the larger pools, both effects would be less pronounced.

Of course, there's an outer limit to this. If you are at a tiny track and you bet an amount disproportionate to the entire pool, it is unlikely that the rest of the people will ever bet enough to offset your play. But at major tracks, where there's plenty of other money into the pool, you can't look at your bet in isolation, ignore what everyone else is doing, and conclude that you will drive down the odds.

[cj]

There's a fallacy here. "Knocking your payoff down" is a matter of perception, based on checking the odds, betting, and then seeing the price go down.

You are overthinking this one. If you bet $50 into a $1,000 pool, your payout will shrink a lot more than if you bet $50 into a $100,000 pool. That was the point.

[melman]

You are overthinking this one. If you bet $50 into a $1,000 pool, your payout will shrink a lot more than if you bet $50 into a $100,000 pool. That was the point.
cj I believe you may be overthinking also. Same with Jeff. I know two very large bettor's. Both KNOW exactly how much they can bet into a pool Be it the wps or exacta or other pool. They aree both harness bettor's so they know about small pools. :) Plus if your going to knock DelMar for high takeout on exacta's let's also knock any NYRA track for the high takeout on the pic4. Plus what's really wrong with today's way of takeout is the large player does NOT really care what the takeout is. Say the takeout at a track on a tri or super is 26-28%. The large player with rebate is paying nowhere near that number. There are still plenty of "smart" players who bet into a NYRA pic4 dispite the high takeout. They have there reasons, i.e. large pools, know the horses, classier stock etc. I'm all FOR reduction in takeout and NOT high rebates. I think the real trend for more interest in racing is with the reduced takeout on the pic4/5 bets at various tracks. Balmoral harness is UP 27% this year. Most of that from the pic bets. Now if only someone in NYS government would pay attention. But I think they would be happy with just a casino.

[melman]

How bad is it in New York? I think both cj and jeff will find this article interesting. The big power boys have messed up harness completely is the t-bred industry next???


http://www.drf.com/news/bergman-forgetting-race-racino

[GMB@BP]

How bad is it in New York? I think both cj and jeff will find this article interesting. The big power boys have messed up harness completely is the t-bred industry next???


http://www.drf.com/news/bergman-forgetting-race-racino

Slots are going to end up hurting a race track in the long terms, that's been my feeling for several years. Its a short term "high" which is going to lead to a problem down the road.

How long before the legislatures decide there is little need for the horse in the equation, that they could make more money with them? It will happen.

[GreenPlant]

From a show betters perspective,the takeout is already 17% or so. If the horse should pay $2.39, the better recieves only $2.20. That is almost an additional 50% takeout percentage. Is this correct? That is RIDICULOUS

[davew]

From a show betters perspective,the takeout is already 17% or so. If the horse should pay $2.39, the better recieves only $2.20. That is almost an additional 50% takeout percentage. Is this correct? That is RIDICULOUS

yes correct except it is not called takeout, but rather breakage (which is the rounding down to the nearest.. nickel or dime/dollar)

[Mr G]

How bad is it in New York? I think both cj and jeff will find this article interesting. The big power boys have messed up harness completely is the t-bred industry next???


http://www.drf.com/news/bergman-forgetting-race-racino

Here in NY I have no doubt full Vegas style casino gambling will not only be approved but will be up and running within 3 years...and within 12 months of legalized casino's they will then legalize sports betting just like they have in Vegas.....and horse racing in NY for the most part will only be a memory.

Look at the money these racino's are raking in...now just imagine a full blown casino that will attract real gamblers and high rollers.....they will no longer not only not have to go to Vegas but won't even need to go down to Atlantic City.....or go to Foxwoods and Mohegan in CT.

Horse racing is going down the same path the stock market is...and that is once the public loses confidence in your product then you are in deep, deep trouble....ever since the bail out of wall street and the wall street bankers the regular Joe has not gone back into the market like before but has actually taken his money out of funds and will no longer go back into the market that he feels is rigged...

Horse racing is considered by many to be a poorly run dirty rigged drug infested business where only a few hot shots make money...it takes a long time but eventually the individual who has supported horse racing for decades will finally feel he or she can no longer get even a tiny bit of a fair shake and will finally say "F__K this shit"

And they will instead wager their dollars in a real casino where they will get free drinks and other perks even if they lose...there is no value in horse racing any longer....the young today have no desire or patience to go to a horse track and wager only to then have to wait around for 30 minutes to place another wager....hell, the odds board alone pisses off many of the young cause they don't understand 9/2 but more importantly they don't give a shit about 9/2....they just want to know how much will they win for their $2.00...Odds should have been converted to dollar amounts on the board a long time ago IMO....8/5? what kind of bullshit is that the young say...Instead just tell me how much I will win if I pick #5 and he wins.

Another thing the young with money want today and that is they want superstars....be it MLB or the NFL or the NBA etc...they want to root for and/or be able to relate to superstars.

Horse racing has made a huge blunder by not making jockeys true superstars...The Ky Derby national TV telecast which attracts many first time viewers ( and potential new customers ) goes on and on about the horses and the jockeys and the wagering is like something foreign.....

While its important to honor such great race horses there are very few among the many horses racing today...but great jockeys are riding day in and day out..Hell, Ramon Dominguez should be on the cover of Sports Illustrated and doing TV commercials like Derek Jeter does...Or Johnny V..or Rosie even....but the industry has put horses on stage but the jockeys are the real superstars the industry has to offer on a day in day out basis....

The horse racing industry truly is stuck in the old days...does anyone think some 30 year old is going to give a shit about a Lucas or a Baffert?

But I bet that same 30 year old would be interested in a Ramon D or an Irad Ortiz or even Rosie P....if they were marketed properly as "Stars" with the best riders getting the tag of superstars....jockey's risk their lives every single ride and yet they are rarely marketed as fast action hero figures...they should be the stars of the industry ( along with the famous race horses ) and riders like Ramon D should be marketed like a true superstar like a LeBron.

Horse racing as we have all known it is out dated and just a few short years ago many states wouldn't even consider approving a real Vegas style casino...but times have changed...many states need new sources of revenue and those in charge see how popular poker is and online wagering so times have changed....here in NY trust me that Vegas style casino's are right around the corner.....then soon after that betting on sports will be approved...and horse racing will be left in the dust. High rollers not only from here in the states but from all over the world will fly into NY and hit the casino's....horse racing will be totally left out I am afraid. And they have nobody to blame but themselves....they have become to fat...they have dissed their customer ( us gamblers ) one to many times...they screw us by allowing crooked trainers with drugged horses to race in races that we suckers wager on...and even when the trainer gets caught red handed they are allowed to continue on while they appeal...screwing us over and over again. The horse racing industry has managed to kill their own product....once sports betting and casino's are a reality in many states then and only then will the horse racing industry realize they killed themselves.

I'm going to be 62 in a couple of weeks and have been playing the horses all my life...also playing the stock market...and I have seen first hand how the average retail investor has lost confidence in the product of the stock market and is looking elsewhere to invest.......and I am now seeing the same retail investor ( the horse player ) losing confidence in horse racing and will be looking elsewhere to put his or her wagering and investing money...some place they feel will give them a chance..and just as important someplace where they will feel appreciated.....

I'm of the opinion that here in NY Vegas style casino's including legal sports betting will attract that player who now feels totally cheated and unappreciated by the horse racing industry...

[Jeff P]

... Jeff P, does your example cover net pool pricing? or does it have an effect?Net pool pricing does have an effect but I didn't go there in my example. (The math is a little more than I wanted to get into in my post.)



So if socal's pools are not going to cut it, and you have a play somewhere else other than NYRA, were would you suggest you can make a play and not have it affect the odds to greatly?

I don't need to address the math, thats obvious.The point I was trying to make is that it is possible for the player to overbet the pool. (Even with a $50 exacta bet and a $400k pool.)

The player has to factor in pool size – and size his bets accordingly - so as not to depress payoffs to the point where he begins to negate his own edge.

With parimutuel pools (except for special events like the KY Derby or Breeders Cup) there's literally nowhere you can play where that's not true.

But only touches on where I was going...



cj I believe you may be overthinking also. Same with Jeff. I know two very large bettor's. Both KNOW exactly how much they can bet into a pool Be it the wps or exacta or other pool... Exactly. And that's actually where I was going with this.

For every pool that you bet into there's a bet size that (in the long run) will optimize your (again, long run) profits.

Large players know this. The sophisticated ones know what historical pool size is for the pools they play into. They also know (with a fair degree of accuracy) what their optimal bet size is for each situation. And they certainly know better than to overbet the pool - because doing that repeatedly costs them money over the course of a meet or a year.


-jp

.

[cj]

Large players know this. The sophisticated ones know what historical pool size is for the pools they play into. They also know (with a fair degree of accuracy) what their optimal bet size is for each situation. And they certainly know better than to overbet the pool - because doing that repeatedly costs them money over the course of a meet or a year.


-jp

.

I'm probably not considered a large bettor compared to others, but I play enough small tracks that I am fully aware of what I can and can't bet at each and in what pools.

All I was trying to point out was that if you bet the same amount at both tracks in the example, you will hurt yourself more at Delmar, nothing more. The guy to whom I responded said knocking your payoff down was just perception. It is, of course, reality, whether you bet 10 cents or $1,000,000.