Saratoga Live! Race-by-race picks and analysis

[Teach]

From the city that brings you such famous people as: Jerry Bailey, Monty Woolley (The Man Who Came To Dinner), Bill Parcells, Dottie Pepper, Danny Hakim, Marylou Whitney and Ulysses S. Grant (actually Hiram Ulysses Grant); he didn't like his West Point nickname: "Hugs"; it's Sunday Afternoon Live! from "The Spa" with appearances by: Ramon "El Caracas Caballero" Dominguez; Johnny "The Puerto Rican Padrino" Velazquez; Eddie"The Panamanian Phenom" Castro; Julien "Le Francais" Leparoux; Javier"El Maracaibo Maestro." Castellano; Jose "ThePanamanian Petardo" Lezcano; "Rosie" Napravnik; Cornelio "The Panama City Picador" Velasquez; Joel "El Dominicano" Rosario, and a host of others. Guest appearances by "The Voice of NYRA," Tom Durkin; Andy Serling; Steve Crist; Jason Blewitt; Maggie Wolfendale; Sam "TheBuglar," starter Rich Brosseau (good luck!); the assistant starters and outriders.

I'll be back in fifteen minutes with my first race picks and analysis.

[Teach]

Race One:



Maiden special-weight two-year-old fillies. Seven furlongs. Main track. The entry, :1: Kansas and :1a: Kimono, look solid. Watched replays (opening day at “The Spa”). Both horses, in separate races, ran with interest. Kansas nearly caught the front-running wire-to-wire winner, Lignite (Joel Rosario). Kimono, in her race, moved alertly along the rail; she also finished second. If they both run, they’re equally capable of winning. Underneath, that’s a whole ‘nother story. :2: Grand Mere, the Seeking The Gold-bred “firster,” has strung together a steady series of works. If her morning work-tab translates into on-the-track performance, she can be a factor here. If there’s any potential for an upset, this horse, I believe, is the one. Joel Rosario, “El Dominicano,” rides for Mike Stidham. Another horse that is capable of hitting the tote is :5: Garmentos Girl. This Miswaki-bred filly did finish fourth in the Kansas race on opening day. Yet, she did well to hold her position and might, as the fillies stretch out, hang on for a minor award. The red-hot. newly inducted Hall-of-Famer, John Velazquez (he won the Sword Dancer - Port Of Entry - and was second - In Lingerie - in The Alabama), is in the irons for another Hall of Famer, “Shug” McCaughey.

1A-1-2-5

[Teach]

Race Two:



In this wide-open turf route for maiden special-weight fillies, I’m casting my lot with :4: Fast And Strong. Shelooks logical. The Grand Slam-bred filly is making her second career start; her first was a third-place finish on the lawn on opening day. She should benefit from that trip. One of the meet’s leading riders, Jose Lezcano, pilots for a most able trainer, Christophe Clement. :2: Chasing Piper, a Giant’s Causeway-bred filly, is stretching out after finishing a closing third in a seven furlong sprint. I’m a bit concerned about the filly’s less-than-stellar morning works; yet, I believe that she’ll like the stretch-out and can, at her best, be part of the mix. The filly’s connections are both having a solid meet. Javier Castellano is one of the leading riders; Bruce Levine is one of the leading trainers. Oh, Levine is very good with horses making their second start on the grass. :9: Clever Spirit could add some value to your ticket, The Unbridled-bred filly has two in the money finishes in four tries on the lawn. The up and coming apprentice, Wilmer Garcia, rides for trainer Rodrigo Ubillo. I can also make a case for :10: Bourbonology. She’s ridden by Ramon Dominguez, yesterday’s “sittin’ chilly” wire-to-wire winner of The Arlington Million aboard Little Mike (Dominguez, aptly stated by Steve Crist “put everyone to sleep”) has a shot here with this Mr. Prospector-bred filly. The filly was bumped in her last but still managed to finish fourth. Although the filly is winless on the lawn, she fits in this company and might surprise. Chad Brown trains.

4-2-9-10

[Teach]

Race Three:



I’m taking a shot with a medium-longshot: :7: Geantor. The Touch Gold-bred colt has had trouble lines that speak volumes. Inside, awkward, bumped, inside. Well, the horse now draws outside where he should avoid most of the troubles that have been besetting him. Yes, he is stepping up a bit in the claiming ranks; but I believe a clean trip would do wonders for this horse. Javier Castellano for Gary Contessa. Underneath, there are a host of horses than can contend. :4: Backdown looks logical. Yet, I’m not sold. Yes, I think he can contend, but a go-to-the-bank, lead-pipe cinch. I wonder. The Mr. Prospector-bred gelding has dropped down from the maiden-specials into the “selling” ranks. He failed in his last in a 35K event, albeit it was seven furlongs. He now cuts back. Rajiv Maragh for John Terranova II. :6: Trickey Guy is also dropping down in the claiming ranks. This Deputy Minister-bred gelding finished last at seven furlongs against better in his last. But, today, I believe he’s in his element. He does add blinkers. Cornelio Velasquez rides for Gary Sciacca, who, by the way, is very good with horses making their second start off a layoff. Finally :3: Revere finished off the board in his last sprint in late July. He was claimed out of that one by Gary Gullo. The Deputy Minister-bred gelding has been well backed in all his recent efforts; he has a second and a third to show for it. Ramon Dominguez, who is the master at both rating a horse and finding a seam, is in the irons.

7-4-6-3

[Teach]

Race Four:



:3: Bayhead Beauty

is the early speed here. If Jose Lezcano can rate this Hennessy-bred four-year-old filly, she might just “… go all the way!” Jason Servis (an excellent meet) trains.:8: First Whippoorwill looks like “the major danger”. The Seeking The Gold-bred filly finished second against this kind of company last time. Prior to that she won three straight. Johnny V. rides for trainer Graham Motion. :7: Sheza Heartbreaker finished third on the lawn in this kind of company in late July. The Kris S.-bred mare has hit the tote in over half her lifetime grass efforts. Irad Ortiz, Jr. (his win yesterday in The Alabama, I’m sure, did wonders for his confidence) rides for Gary Sciacca. :1: Cosmic Energy broke her maiden in her last (opening day). The Unbridled’s Song-bred roan filly will be moving up from her maiden-breaking effort; she’ll be tested for class. Ramon Dominguez for Tim Hills.

3-8-7-1

[Teach]

Race Five:



:10: Citizen Emma


appears to be the standout in this field of one-timers and first-timers. This Gone West-bred filly’s first effort was very good; she finished second albeit as the beaten even-money fave. However, she still looms as the top choice. Javier Castellano (could this be his red-letter day?) is in the irons for Todd Pletcher. :5: Broken Spell is another horse with experience over the lawn, albeit only one race. Yet, in that race, this Unbridled-bred filly performed reasonably well; she appeared to be a victim of circumstances. She is first-time lasix. Any slight improvement combined with improved racing luck puts this filly in the thick of things. I gotta tell you I jusdt love the turf breeding on :6: Lovely Dynaformer. I mean this could be any kind of turf horse. Yes, Dynaformer, Roberto, A.P. Indy, etc. This horse could be something. That said, the filly may need an acclimating trip over the track. Add to that the fact that trainer Bill Mott has a low first-time starter stat. Joel Rosario is in the irons. :8: J’esprit is another horse with solid turf pedigree. It’s hard to quantify, but the filly could surprise. Ramon Dominguez for Chad Brown.

10-5-6-8

[Teach]

Race Six:


:10: Key To Power

gets my nod in this route turf race. The colt has hit the board in his last three races. The Seattle Slew-bred colt has a solid turf pedigree. The horse has a win and a third in two tries on the lawn. Junior Alvarado for Bill Mott. :1: Our Entourage looks like an impact player here. He’s faced stakes company. Rajiv Maragh rides for Todd Pletcher. :5: Gaelico is a bit of a mystery. This Danzig-bred globe-trotting colt has had his share of ups and downs. In his last, he came in at the break and was pocketed; a cleaner trip would put this horse in contention. Javier Castellano rides for Dale Romans. :7: Selection Sunday is the early speed. If Alan Garcia can get this Harlan-bred colt comfortable on “the engine,” there’s no telling how far he can take this field. The horse has hit the tote in three of five lifetime turf tries.

10-1-5-7

[kipdog99]

Very nice handicapping of race 6

[Teach]

Late Pick-4 Picks:

Race Seven:

:9: Wish To Opine

:8: Irish Wedding

:11: Phantasticus

:14: Marcy


Race Eight:

:1: Stephanie's Kitten

:4: Better Lucky

:3: Medolina

:2: Centre Court

Race Nine:

:1: Molly Morgan

:3: Royal Sighting

:8: Caviar N Champagne

:9: Princess Mara

Race Ten:

:9: Ready Gets Gold

:7: Rodinia

:11: Tahoe Tigress

:5: Deflate The Bubble