Saratoga: Race-by-Race picks and analysis

[Teach]

From the city that brought you Bemis Heights, Freeman Farm,Belcarres Redoubt, Horatio Gates "Gentleman Johnny" Burgoyne and Benedict Arnold, it's Wednesday Afternoon Live! from "The Spa" with appearances by: Ramon "El Caracas Caballero" Dominguez; Johnny "The Puerto Rican Padrino" Velazquez; Eddie"The Panamanian Phenom" Castro; Julien "Le Francais" Laparoux;Javier "El Maracaibo Maestro" Castellano; Jose "The Panamanian Petardo" Lezcano; "Rosie" Napravnik; Cornelio "The Panama City Picador" Velasquez; Joel "El Dominicano" Rosario, and a host of others. Guest appearances by Tom Durkin, Andy Serling, Dave Litfin, Jason Blewitt, Maggie Wolfendale, Sam "The Buglar," starter Rich Brosseau (good luck on your retirement), the assistant starters and the outriders.

Be back in fifteen minutes.

[Teach]

Race One:



:1: Debonair Dancer


draws the inside (usually an advantage in short turf sprints). The A.P. Indy-bred filly has that early turn of foot that can take advantage of that inside post. :4: City Vice could be the surprise factor here. The Carson City-bred mare has hit the tote in five of 22 turf starts. “Rosie” Napravnik for Richard DeMola. :6: Stay Composed unseated the jock in his last. Has front speed. Can be dangerous. Cutting back helps. :3: Rough Winter might just round out a gimmick. The filly’s only win came on the lawn against slightly better. Jose Espinosa rides for Pat Kelly.

[sammy the sage]

Race One:



:1: Debonair Dancer


draws the inside (usually an advantage in short turf sprints). The A.P. Indy-bred filly has that early turn of foot that can take advantage of that inside post. :4: City Vice could be the surprise factor here. The Carson City-bred mare has hit the tote in five of 22 turf starts. “Rosie” Napravnik for Richard DeMola. :6: Stay Composed unseated the jock in his last. Has front speed. Can be dangerous. Cutting back helps. :3: Rough Winter might just round out a gimmick. The filly’s only win came on the lawn against slightly better. Jose Espinosa rides for Pat Kelly.


Really should LEARN Toga stats...the ONE hole has won like 4 races IN total for last 3 years COMBINED

Not saying your pick won't win...just better bE THE best horse to overcome THE disadvantage

[PhantomOnTour]

Really should LEARN Toga stats...the ONE hole has won like 4 races IN total for last 3 years COMBINED

Not saying your pick won't win...just better bE THE best horse to overcome THE disadvantage
The 1 hole has already won 3 times this meet going 5.5f on turf.

I think Leparoux outfoxes these lesser riders on contenders (Garcia, Castro, and A Garcia) with the :7: and hits the ex...playing top and bottom with the :1: :2: :6:

[Teach]

Race Two:



:9: She Be Bunny


tried the lawn for the first time on Independence Day at Arlington Park. The Arazi-bred filly finished third in a mile and one-eighth route. She now shortens up to mile. “El Dominicano,” Joel Rosario rides for Eoin Harty. :5: Crypto Kitten looks like the “logical”. The Cryptoclearabnce-bred mare has failed as the favorite in her last four maiden-breaking tries; yet, she has finished second in six of twelve tries. Is today the day? Javier Castellano for Mike Maker. :4: Accent. Is the A.P. Indy-bred filly finished fourth in her last in a race that was taken off the turf and run on the main track. She’s three for six in the money on the lawn. Julien Laparoux, “Un Francais,” rides for Steve Asmussen. Also, Finally, :8: Carpi Clements is a front-running sort who was third in this company at a mile and one-sixteenth at Belmont in late June. She was bumped at the start of her last effort. A clean trip would make her a definite factor. Wilmer Garcia in the irons for trainer Bob Barbara.

[Teach]

Race Three:



:5: Wild Target


has hit the tote in five of his six pari-mutual tries. If the track comes up at all wet (the forecast talks about showers) this Kafwain-A.P. Indy-bred ridgling would certainly benefit. Jose Lezcano, “The Panamanian Petardo,” rides for trainer Eddie Kenneally. :2: Rockin Boogie can make amends off his last start when his rider, Ramon Dominguez, was unseated at the start. The horse was going off at about 4/5. The Unbridled’s Song-bred colt has been on the cusp of breaking his maiden. He’s five out of eight in the money. Ramon Dominguez is back aboard for Bruce Levine. :4: Curve Ball could be a surprise factor here. He finished third against maiden claimers in his last. Javier Castellano for trainer Dom Galluscio. :1: Demon’s Deputy is my surprise possibility here. He draws the wood and the services of Irad Ortiz, Jr. Leah “The Preacher” Gyarmati trains. The Mr. Greeley-bred colt is three for five in-the-money starts.

[castaway01]

From the city that brought you Bemis Heights, Freeman Farm,Belcarres Redoubt, Horatio Gates "Gentleman Johnny" Burgoyne and Benedict Arnold, it's Wednesday Afternoon Live! from "The Spa" with appearances by: Ramon "El Caracas Caballero" Dominguez; Johnny "The Puerto Rican Padrino" Velazquez; Eddie"The Panamanian Phenom" Castro; Julien "Le Francais" Laparoux;Javier "El Maracaibo Maestro" Castellano; Jose "The Panamanian Petardo" Lezcano; "Rosie" Napravnik; Cornelio "The Panama City Picador" Velasquez; Joel "El Dominicano" Rosario, and a host of others. Guest appearances by Tom Durkin, Andy Serling, Dave Litfin, Jason Blewitt, Maggie Wolfendale, Sam "The Buglar," starter Rich Brosseau (good luck on your retirement), the assistant starters and the outriders.

Be back in fifteen minutes.

That was cute but probably took more time to type than all your picks today. :)

Just kidding. I like your posts and your analysis. Best of luck.

[Teach]

Race Four:



:7: Thirty Minutes


gets my nod in this maiden claiming sprint. Carlos Montalvo, who broke his own Saratoga “maiden” this past Saturday on House Of Leaves, has a solid chance of booting home his second winner. His mount was second in this company in late July. Gary Contessa trains. :5: Inquiring looks like can hit the tote here. Although the Cherokee Run-bred filly has only one tote-hitting effort in five tries, the filly fits in this company. :6: Who Zat Girl broke out on the front end against weaker in her last; however, the Mr. Prospector-bred filly had nothing left as they reached the far turn and finished up the track. On her best, she has a chance of hitting the tote in this short-field race. Cornelio Velasquez for Linda Rice.

[senortout]

http://www.clearcreekstudllc.com/half-ours2.shtml

check out her sire results...pretty impressive link

with a note of caution...they paid 100 grand for this one and have now offered her for 20k....twice.........

[Teach]

Race Five:



:7: Perfect Officer is my pick to win the 100K Troy to be run on the turf at a distance of 5 and ½ furlongs. The gelding was third in the 100K Willard Str. Prior to that, he was third in PRX Dash Handicap. Javier Castellano rides for Tony Dutrow. :2: Regally Ready went off the chalk in stakes company at Arlington in early July. However, the Southern Halo-bred gelding finished off the board. Prior to that he had been running in the United Arab Emirates and at Santa Anita. He’s hit the tote in 10 of 14 turf tries. Julien Laparoux rides for Steve Asmussen. :3: Bridgetown is most definitely a factor here. The Gone West-bred horse has hit the tote in seven of his last eight starts. John Velazquez in the irons for Todd Pletcher. :8: Zeb is my longshot try. The Danzig-bred gelding was fourth in her last start, the Willard. Yet, the horse had to be angled out and may have lost any chance of winning in the process. Today, the gelding gets a better starting post to mount a late charge. Joel Rosario in the irons for Dale Romans.

[Teach]

Race Six:



:3: War Hoot was second in this kind of company in early July. The Danzig-bred horse has hit the board in his last three. Ramon Dominguez rides for Chad Brown. :6: Boots Ahead is the main threat; he was fourth in the Grade 3 Poker. Eddie Castro for George Weaver.:5: Freshman Dorm was third in claiming company in his last. He’s 12 out of 18 on the turf. Alan Garcia for Kiaran McLaughlin. :8: Pleasant Run was third in an optional claimer in mid June. The Pleasant Colony-bred gelding is two for four on the turf. Joel Rosario for Ken McPeek.

[Teach]

Race Seven:

:3: Nice Stuff gets my tepid nod in this 5 and 1/2 furlong optional claimer. The filly has been away for several months, but her recents works indicate she should be ready. Ramon Dominguez for Tony Dutrow. :4: Lady Rizzi looks logical; she won her last. Cornelio Velasquez for Linda Rice. :2: Paraiba with Jose Lezcano might surprise. She was third in her last. 18 for 32 on the turf. Finally, :7: Eden Is Burning has been second in her last three. Javier Castellano for Gary Contessa.

[Teach]

Race Eight:

:8: Parent's Honor gets my tepid nod in this sprint. The gelding is taking a steep class drop off his efforts at Delaware Park. Rosie Napravnik for Tony Dutrow. :9: Rein King could be a surprise factor. Recent solid work. Joel Rosario for John Terranova II. :7: American Legend is another possible surprise factor. Has won two straight. David Cohen for David Jacobson. Bristol Dancer might pick up the pieces. Turf to dirt. Ramon Dominguez for Patricia Farro.

[Teach]

Race Nine:

:6: Saint of Saints has faced much better. Was in the Derby Trial at Churchill. Was right there with the early fractions. Faded in the stretch in that one. Gets the services of Joel Rosario. Drilled five furlongs in :59.3 about a week ago. If reasonably ready...Dale Romans trains. :8: Bravo Romeo can add value to your ticket. He's a bit of a gambler's throw. Obviously looking for value. Ran second in a similar race about a month ago. Has hit the tote board in five straight. Good chance of making his way on a gimmick ticket, in some way, shape, or form. :1: Off The Jak draws the wood. Will likely be on or near the front. Rajiv Maragh rides for Bisnath Parboo. Has hit the tote in three of his last four. Finally, :2: Seeker may need a race. Yet, his morning work-tab (a "bullet" work about a week ago) seems to indicate this gelding is ready for prime time. Julien Leparoux for Steve Asmussen.

[Teach]

Race Ten:

:9: Dendrite (do I hear axon, myelin sheath, or synaptic cleft?) gets my tepid nod in the turf finale. John Velazquez handles turf horses very well. I think this horse fits and is capable of getting all the enchiladas. Granted, this well-bred Unbridled's Song progeny has shown little in recent starts; yet he has been facing better. The colt now switches to a high percentage jock. David Donk trains this horse who is four for 11 on the turf. :3: Dual Mandate was second in his last. He has faced better. Rajiv Maragh for Terri Pompay. :11: Mr. Algebra finished second in this company last time. He may be out and going from his outside post. If he gets on or near the lead, he can be dangerous. :1:Lion Prince should be another horse who will be gunning for the lead. He should benefit from the shortened distance. Ramon Dominguez for Roy Lerman.

[sammy the sage]

Very nice call on the 8th race...hope ya nailed...

that said...unless the track/turf is dry & firm...w/extra banking that's been added...gonna be even tougher for 1 hole in those short races...