Saratoga 3rd race today

[AceInTheHole]

I'm trying to see what anyone would see in the winner of this race today- #7 Alykela? She was 30-1 on the ML and added bandages. she also threw a wrench in my Pick 3:)....Really though, as a new handicapper its these winners that I can't see what anyone would see in this horse. How can you tell when a longshot like this is going to win or what did I miss here?

[PhantomOnTour]

Trainer angle...that guy wins one at Sar every year

[Some_One]

She was tough to see, but it was an off the turf race, most of the form in that race was turf form, which means absolutely nothing on dirt. The fav did have a good dirt race (figure wise) 2 back, but that was first off the shelf and given the class drop over the last 2, I thought it was suspect she would run back to that figure.

[cj]

I'm trying to see what anyone would see in the winner of this race today- #7 Alykela? She was 30-1 on the ML and added bandages. she also threw a wrench in my Pick 3:)....Really though, as a new handicapper its these winners that I can't see what anyone would see in this horse. How can you tell when a longshot like this is going to win or what did I miss here?

Well, for one, it was scheduled for turf and went on dirt so you can throw the ML out the window. This horse's dirt races were certainly competitive with anyone else in the field.

[PhantomOnTour]

Here's what trainer Disanto has done at Sar for the last 6yrs (mind you he is a perennial 2%-7% winner):

2007: two winners, at 9-2 and 3-1 (Cardiff Road and Longingfortheone)
2008: Warrior Hill wins at 61-1
2009: Ritzy Aly wins at 8-1
2010: Wishingonadream wins at 22-1
2011: Rizzi's Comet wins at 8-1 (he ran today, but did nothing)
2012: Alykela wins at 24-1

this guy wins about 5-7 races a year, but always has at least one at Sar
I am waiting patiently for the James Ferraro bomb...he does the same stuff as Disanto...hardly wins anything but always gets a good price home at Sar

Amazing

[PhantomOnTour]

Here's what trainer Disanto has done at Sar for the last 6yrs (mind you he is a perennial 2%-7% winner):

2007: two winners, at 9-2 and 3-1 (Cardiff Road and Longingfortheone)
2008: Warrior Hill wins at 61-1
2009: Ritzy Aly wins at 8-1
2010: Wishingonadream wins at 22-1
2011: Rizzi's Comet wins at 8-1 (he ran today, but did nothing)
2012: Alykela wins at 24-1

this guy wins about 5-7 races a year, but always has at least one at Sar
I am waiting patiently for the James Ferraro bomb...he does the same stuff as Disanto...hardly wins anything but always gets a good price home at Sar

Amazing
Pardon me, the Ritzy Aly win was at Bel

[PhantomOnTour]

So let's check out James Ferraro at Sar:

2008: Lorccan wins at 5-2 - 2nd start at the meet
2009: Top Lass at 14-1 - 2nd start at the meet
2009: Straight Romance at 15-1 - 2nd start at the meet
2009: Heavenly Blaze at 25-1 - 2nd start at the meet
2010: Heavenly Blaze again at 12-1 - 3rd start of the meet
2010: Moon Raven at 30-1 - 3rd start of the meet
2011: Unknown Wonder at 32-1 - 1st start of the meet

[Robert Fischer]

I'm trying to see what anyone would see in the winner of this race today- #7 Alykela? She was 30-1 on the ML and added bandages. she also threw a wrench in my Pick 3:)....Really though, as a new handicapper its these winners that I can't see what anyone would see in this horse. How can you tell when a longshot like this is going to win or what did I miss here?

I tossed her.

Big Longshots win occasionally too.

[PhantomOnTour]

Here's what trainer Disanto has done at Sar for the last 6yrs (mind you he is a perennial 2%-7% winner):

2007: two winners, at 9-2 and 3-1 (Cardiff Road and Longingfortheone)
2008: Warrior Hill wins at 61-1
2009: Ritzy Aly wins at 8-1
2010: Wishingonadream wins at 22-1
2011: Rizzi's Comet wins at 8-1 (he ran today, but did nothing)
2012: Alykela wins at 24-1

this guy wins about 5-7 races a year, but always has at least one at Sar
I am waiting patiently for the James Ferraro bomb...he does the same stuff as Disanto...hardly wins anything but always gets a good price home at Sar

Amazing
And he strikes again (in the 3rd at Sar no less)...this time at 54-1.
Glenn DiSanto.
This one was a total surprise as his form was putrid, but if you had faith in him you cashed...i did not

[lamboguy]

i know how the horse won, i bet a lot of money on the horse that ran second. it works every time in Saratoga.

[PhantomOnTour]

i know how the horse won, i bet a lot of money on the horse that ran second. it works every time in Saratoga.
I bet the horse who ran 3rd...#8

[RaceBookJoe]

And he strikes again (in the 3rd at Sar no less)...this time at 54-1.
Glenn DiSanto.
This one was a total surprise as his form was putrid, but if you had faith in him you cashed...i did not

Also, these types of plays show up at the end of the meet. Twice in the past 4-5 yrs i have hit a play like this. One was a horse shipped in from Charlestown i believe, and another was a horse with a trainer and jockey i had never heard of and paid $90+. When i see these horses shipping in for a run-of-the-mill race like a $10K claimer i mark it down as a "WTF" horse...what is he doing here? I always laugh when these plays come around because they remind me of some of the horse racing stories i remember as a kid haha.

[Not4Love]

I'm looking at the races and kind find any way to explain these results. Your new to this then I really do wish you luck. It wasnt always this way, but now more than ever Trainers take priority when playing this game. Good Luck