The Holy Bull

[TravisVOX]

3YO's get rolling Saturday...not a bad race at GP. I'll admit I'm not playing GP this spring, but this race intrigues me. Friends Lake is a solid horse, despite being a NY-Bred. Good races, ran a nice turn time last out and has shown he can fire well fresh. There are a lot of over-rated horses in this group, Migliore buys the airplane ticket for a reason.

I haven't looked over the Santa Anita race yet, but overall the 3YO scene could really take shape this weekend. It's never too early to dream about the Derby! :D

[Bubbles]

Friends Lake is a good horse, and reminds some onlookers of Funny Cide. Not sure if he can overcome the three-month layoff, and with a steed like Silver Wagon in this field, there are some question marks. If you saw my post, I put 'Lake in exotics with three others.

The one upsetter a lot of people may not see is Caiman, the Mexican invader. Ran the hands off the stopwatches in a 3F work at Calder, and didn't finish worse than second south of the border. Could surprise.

[Cratos]

This is my summary of the Holy Bull:

The racetrack was running slow all day, but it got slightly faster over the last five dirt races. The SSRV (Surface Speed Resistance Variant) was -.78 for the day or two-fifths slower than the surface was when Funny Cide ran. Also it should be noted that according to the DRF charts, the horse was 4 wide in the first turn and 3 wide in the far turn and when all adjustments are made, the following projections are made:

Second of June’s Projections
• Adjusted time = 1:41.47
• Projected to 1-1/8 miles = 1:47.50
• Projected to !- ¼ miles = 1:59.55

Am I saying that Second of June will run 1:59.55 on May 1 at Churchill Downs? No, but I am saying that with his performance today and when all things are considered, his projected time at 1 ¼ miles based on today’s race only, is 1:59.55. It will be worth while to watch his development through the Derby preps.

Also it might be significant to remember this race because it was run a 1 mile track, the same as Churchill Downs and Calder. Churchill will have tighter turns, but a much longer stretch than either Gulfstream or Calder.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Can you tell me where I can learn about SSRV? Thanks!

[Suffolk OTB]

Interesting analysis. The final time 2 1/2 F was run in 30.56, which was quite impressive. I think the track was playing fair yesterday--the slower times were more a result of the quality of the horses.

SECOND OF JUNE is definitely a player---I have my doubt about SILVER WAGON. He may be more of a one-turn beast. That slithering run in the stretch may be indicative of that.

[Cratos]

I am an engineer by education and work experience who loves handicapping racehorses because of the mathematical and statistical challenges.

Therefore in 1984 on the plane to California to the first Breeders’ Cup races, a friend asked what makes a horse win. I thought about the question said to myself the real question is what makes a horse lose? The answer came in the form of my understanding of physics and it application to automobiles.

With automobiles the most important external, slowing-down force is air resistance or drag. The second most important force is friction between the tires and the ground, the so-called rolling resistance. Both these forces are called resistance because they always act to oppose the forward motion of the car in whatever direction it is going. Another physical effect that slows a car down is internal friction in the drive train and wheel bearings

This theory is directly applicable to horses. As a car is mass that move through the air so is horse and jockey, therefore there is air resistance. There is a friction between the horses’ hoofs and the track surface. Incidentally a study was performed and published by a professor from MIT on this subject in the early eighties. Comparison to the internal friction in the automobile’s drive train and wheel bearings come from the horse in the form of the fatigue in its muscle system due to work.

Mathematically and statistically developing the Surface Speed Resistance Variant (SSRV) wasn’t easy and it was very time consuming (about 18 years) but it is a powerful tool and I keep daily records of the DRF result charts of the top twenty-five racetracks in North America to keep the data up to date.

I hope this explanation helps and I apologize for such a long answer.

[kenwoodallpromos]

That explains the reasoning but not the formula, but that's ok! I rely on the importance of the torque applied to various surfaces for resistance and speed, like the choice of gear and RPMs for traction, / and fuel consumption needed. That is why I base track speed on daily track workouts to determine resistance and running style/horse's condition for early speed and stamina.

[Speed Figure]

My Figures For The Holy Bull(G3) & Santa Catalina S(G2).

1C 2C LF SF
Second of June 86 95 106 103

Race Figures 87 95 106 103

1C 2C LF SF
St Averil 100 109 98 104

Race Figures 105 112 96 104