Could the Electoral Vote Be a Tie?

[barn32]

In a close election, it is possible that the electoral college could be tied 269 to 269. Then we move to Plan B. (Actually, if it is 270 to 268 and there is a faithless or extremely stupid elector among the 270, we also move to Plan B because the Constitution says you need an absolute majority, not just more than the other guy.) So how might we get a tie? As we discussed (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Jun04.html#item-1) on June 4, there are 18 states plus D.C. that have gone Democratic five times in a row in presidential elections. It is very unlikely that any of them will be in play except possibly Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (due to photo ID laws that will suppress Democratic turnout). With Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Obama is fairly sure of 242 electoral votes. Without them he is pretty sure of 212 EVs. Let us use that scenario. So Obama has a base of 17 "states" (including D.C.) and 212 EVs.

Romney's base is all the states that the Republicans have won five times in a row plus the Southern states that Bill Clinton picked off because he is from the South. Obama has no chance of winning any of these. This gives Romney a base of 20 states and 165 EVs. In contrast to the map of June 4th, we no longer believe Arizona and West Virginia are swing states, so color them red. Now Romney has 22 states and 181 EVs.

That leaves 12 swing states worth 145 EVs. These are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Here is the map we will work from. Note that it is more Romney-friendly than the June 4th map because we have changed Wisconsin and Pennsylvania from sure Obama to tossups and Arizona and West Virginia from tossups to sure Romney. The purple states are where all the action will be.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Images/map-for-ties.jpg

For the purpose of seeing how many ties there are, each of the 12 swing states could go either way, for a total of 2^12 or 4096 combinations. People aren't so good at enumerating all of them, but a garden-variety PC can do this in 10 milliseconds. Here are all the combinations of the swing states that add up to exactly 57 EVs (in alphabetical order), which when added to Obama's base of 212, gives him precisely 269 EVs, and thus a tie.

#

Combinations that Give Obama 57 EVs and thus 269 EVs in Total

1

Colorado (9) + Florida (29) + Iowa (6) + Virginia (13)

2

Colorado (9) + Florida (29) + Missouri (10) + New Hampshire (4) + New Mexico (5)

3

Colorado (9) + Florida (29) + Nevada (6) + Virginia (13)

4

Colorado (9) + Florida (29) + New Hampshire (4) + New Mexico (5) + Wisconsin (10)

5

Colorado (9) + Florida (29) + New Hampshire (4) + North Carolina (15)

6

Colorado (9) + Iowa (6) + Missouri (10) + New Hampshire (4) + New Mexico (5) + Virginia (13) + Wisconsin (10)

7

Colorado (9) + Iowa (6) + Missouri (10) + New Hampshire (4) + North Carolina (15) + Virginia (13)

8

Colorado (9) + Iowa (6) + Missouri (10) + New Hampshire (4) + Ohio (18) + Wisconsin (10)

9

Colorado (9) + Iowa (6) + Nevada (6) + New Mexico (5) + Ohio (18) + Virginia (13)

10

Colorado (9) + Iowa (6) + New Hampshire (4) + New Mexico (5) + North Carolina (15) + Ohio (18)

11

Colorado (9) + Iowa (6) + New Hampshire (4) + New Mexico (5) + Pennsylvania (20) + Virginia (13)

12

Colorado (9) + Iowa (6) + New Hampshire (4) + North Carolina (15) + Virginia (13) + Wisconsin (10)

13

Colorado (9) + Iowa (6) + New Hampshire (4) + Ohio (18) + Pennsylvania (20)

14

Colorado (9) + Missouri (10) + Nevada (6) + New Hampshire (4) + New Mexico (5) + Virginia (13) + Wisconsin (10)

15

Colorado (9) + Missouri (10) + Nevada (6) + New Hampshire (4) + North Carolina (15) + Virginia (13)

16

Colorado (9) + Missouri (10) + Nevada (6) + New Hampshire (4) + Ohio (18) + Wisconsin (10)

17

Colorado (9) + Missouri (10) + New Mexico (5) + North Carolina (15) + Ohio (18)

18

Colorado (9) + Missouri (10) + New Mexico (5) + Pennsylvania (20) + Virginia (13)

19

Colorado (9) + Missouri (10) + North Carolina (15) + Virginia (13) + Wisconsin (10)

20

Colorado (9) + Missouri (10) + Ohio (18) + Pennsylvania (20)

21

Colorado (9) + Nevada (6) + New Hampshire (4) + New Mexico (5) + North Carolina (15) + Ohio (18)

22

Colorado (9) + Nevada (6) + New Hampshire (4) + New Mexico (5) + Pennsylvania (20) + Virginia (13)

23

Colorado (9) + Nevada (6) + New Hampshire (4) + North Carolina (15) + Virginia (13) + Wisconsin (10)

24

Colorado (9) + Nevada (6) + New Hampshire (4) + Ohio (18) + Pennsylvania (20)

25

Colorado (9) + New Mexico (5) + North Carolina (15) + Ohio (18) + Wisconsin (10)

26

Colorado (9) + New Mexico (5) + Pennsylvania (20) + Virginia (13) + Wisconsin (10)

27

Colorado (9) + North Carolina (15) + Pennsylvania (20) + Virginia (13)

28

Colorado (9) + Ohio (18) + Pennsylvania (20) + Wisconsin (10)

29

Florida (29) + Iowa (6) + New Hampshire (4) + New Mexico (5) + Virginia (13)

30

Florida (29) + Iowa (6) + New Hampshire (4) + Ohio (18)

31

Florida (29) + Missouri (10) + New Mexico (5) + Virginia (13)

32

Florida (29) + Missouri (10) + Ohio (18)

33

Florida (29) + Nevada (6) + New Hampshire (4) + New Mexico (5) + Virginia (13)

34

Florida (29) + Nevada (6) + New Hampshire (4) + Ohio (18)

35

Florida (29) + New Mexico (5) + Virginia (13) + Wisconsin (10)

36

Florida (29) + North Carolina (15) + Virginia (13)

37

Florida (29) + Ohio (18) + Wisconsin (10)

38

Iowa (6) + Missouri (10) + Nevada (6) + New Hampshire (4) + Ohio (18) + Virginia (13)

39

Iowa (6) + Missouri (10) + Nevada (6) + New Mexico (5) + Pennsylvania (20) + Wisconsin (10)

40

Iowa (6) + Missouri (10) + Nevada (6) + North Carolina (15) + Pennsylvania (20)

41

Iowa (6) + Missouri (10) + Ohio (18) + Virginia (13) + Wisconsin (10)

42

Iowa (6) + Nevada (6) + New Hampshire (4) + Ohio (18) + Virginia (13) + Wisconsin (10)

43

Iowa (6) + Nevada (6) + North Carolina (15) + Pennsylvania (20) + Wisconsin (10)

44

Iowa (6) + New Mexico (5) + North Carolina (15) + Ohio (18) + Virginia (13)

45

Iowa (6) + Ohio (18) + Pennsylvania (20) + Virginia (13)

46

Missouri (10) + Nevada (6) + Ohio (18) + Virginia (13) + Wisconsin (10)

47

Missouri (10) + New Hampshire (4) + New Mexico (5) + North Carolina (15) + Virginia (13) + Wisconsin (10)

48

Missouri (10) + New Hampshire (4) + New Mexico (5) + Ohio (18) + Pennsylvania (20)

49

Missouri (10) + New Hampshire (4) + North Carolina (15) + Ohio (18) + Wisconsin (10)

50

Missouri (10) + New Hampshire (4) + Pennsylvania (20) + Virginia (13) + Wisconsin (10)

51

Nevada (6) + New Mexico (5) + North Carolina (15) + Ohio (18) + Virginia (13)

52

Nevada (6) + Ohio (18) + Pennsylvania (20) + Virginia (13)

53

New Hampshire (4) + New Mexico (5) + North Carolina (15) + Pennsylvania (20) + Virginia (13)

54

New Hampshire (4) + New Mexico (5) + Ohio (18) + Pennsylvania (20) + Wisconsin (10)

55

New Hampshire (4) + North Carolina (15) + Ohio (18) + Pennsylvania (20)



However, there is another way to get a tie. Obama won the Omaha congressional district, NE-02, in 2008. He could win it again, in which case if he wins 268 EVs elsewhere plus that one, he again gets to 269. There are 42 ways to pull this off, as follows.

#

Combinations including NE-02 that Give Obama 57 EVs and thus 269 EVs in Total

1

Colorado (9) + Florida (29) + New Mexico (5) + Virginia (13) + NE-02 (1)

2

Colorado (9) + Florida (29) + Ohio (18) + NE-02 (1)

3

Colorado (9) + Iowa (6) + Missouri (10) + Nevada (6) + New Mexico (5) + Pennsylvania (20) + NE-02 (1)

4

Colorado (9) + Iowa (6) + Missouri (10) + Nevada (6) + North Carolina (15) + Wisconsin (10) + NE-02 (1)

5

Colorado (9) + Iowa (6) + Missouri (10) + Ohio (18) + Virginia (13) + NE-02 (1)

6

Colorado (9) + Iowa (6) + Nevada (6) + New Hampshire (4) + Ohio (18) + Virginia (13) + NE-02 (1)

7

Colorado (9) + Iowa (6) + Nevada (6) + New Mexico (5) + Pennsylvania (20) + Wisconsin (10) + NE-02 (1)

8

Colorado (9) + Iowa (6) + Nevada (6) + North Carolina (15) + Pennsylvania (20) + NE-02 (1)

9

Colorado (9) + Iowa (6) + Ohio (18) + Virginia (13) + Wisconsin (10) + NE-02 (1)

10

Colorado (9) + Missouri (10) + Nevada (6) + Ohio (18) + Virginia (13) + NE-02 (1)

11

Colorado (9) + Missouri (10) + New Hampshire (4) + New Mexico (5) + North Carolina (15) + Virginia (13) + NE-02 (1)

12

Colorado (9) + Missouri (10) + New Hampshire (4) + New Mexico (5) + Ohio (18) + Wisconsin (10) + NE-02 (1)

13

Colorado (9) + Missouri (10) + New Hampshire (4) + North Carolina (15) + Ohio (18) + NE-02 (1)

14

Colorado (9) + Missouri (10) + New Hampshire (4) + Pennsylvania (20) + Virginia (13) + NE-02 (1)

15

Colorado (9) + Nevada (6) + Ohio (18) + Virginia (13) + Wisconsin (10) + NE-02 (1)

16

Colorado (9) + New Hampshire (4) + New Mexico (5) + North Carolina (15) + Virginia (13) + Wisconsin (10) + NE-02 (1)

17

Colorado (9) + New Hampshire (4) + New Mexico (5) + Ohio (18) + Pennsylvania (20) + NE-02 (1)

18

Colorado (9) + New Hampshire (4) + North Carolina (15) + Ohio (18) + Wisconsin (10) + NE-02 (1)

19

Colorado (9) + New Hampshire (4) + Pennsylvania (20) + Virginia (13) + Wisconsin (10) + NE-02 (1)

20

Florida (29) + Iowa (6) + Missouri (10) + Nevada (6) + New Mexico (5) + NE-02 (1)

21

Florida (29) + Iowa (6) + Nevada (6) + New Mexico (5) + Wisconsin (10) + NE-02 (1)

22

Florida (29) + Iowa (6) + Nevada (6) + North Carolina (15) + NE-02 (1)

23

Florida (29) + Missouri (10) + New Hampshire (4) + Virginia (13) + NE-02 (1)

24

Florida (29) + New Hampshire (4) + New Mexico (5) + Ohio (18) + NE-02 (1)

25

Florida (29) + New Hampshire (4) + Virginia (13) + Wisconsin (10) + NE-02 (1)

26

Iowa (6) + Missouri (10) + Nevada (6) + New Hampshire (4) + New Mexico (5) + North Carolina (15) + Wisconsin (10) + NE-02 (1)

27

Iowa (6) + Missouri (10) + Nevada (6) + New Hampshire (4) + Pennsylvania (20) + Wisconsin (10) + NE-02 (1)

28

Iowa (6) + Missouri (10) + New Hampshire (4) + New Mexico (5) + Ohio (18) + Virginia (13) + NE-02 (1)

29

Iowa (6) + Missouri (10) + New Mexico (5) + North Carolina (15) + Pennsylvania (20) + NE-02 (1)

30

Iowa (6) + Nevada (6) + New Hampshire (4) + New Mexico (5) + North Carolina (15) + Pennsylvania (20) + NE-02 (1)

31

Iowa (6) + New Hampshire (4) + New Mexico (5) + Ohio (18) + Virginia (13) + Wisconsin (10) + NE-02 (1)

32

Iowa (6) + New Hampshire (4) + North Carolina (15) + Ohio (18) + Virginia (13) + NE-02 (1)

33

Iowa (6) + New Mexico (5) + North Carolina (15) + Pennsylvania (20) + Wisconsin (10) + NE-02 (1)

34

Missouri (10) + Nevada (6) + New Hampshire (4) + New Mexico (5) + Ohio (18) + Virginia (13) + NE-02 (1)

35

Missouri (10) + Nevada (6) + New Mexico (5) + North Carolina (15) + Pennsylvania (20) + NE-02 (1)

36

Missouri (10) + New Mexico (5) + Ohio (18) + Virginia (13) + Wisconsin (10) + NE-02 (1)

37

Missouri (10) + North Carolina (15) + Ohio (18) + Virginia (13) + NE-02 (1)

38

Nevada (6) + New Hampshire (4) + New Mexico (5) + Ohio (18) + Virginia (13) + Wisconsin (10) + NE-02 (1)

39

Nevada (6) + New Hampshire (4) + North Carolina (15) + Ohio (18) + Virginia (13) + NE-02 (1)

40

Nevada (6) + New Mexico (5) + North Carolina (15) + Pennsylvania (20) + Wisconsin (10) + NE-02 (1)

41

New Mexico (5) + Ohio (18) + Pennsylvania (20) + Virginia (13) + NE-02 (1)

42

North Carolina (15) + Ohio (18) + Virginia (13) + Wisconsin (10) + NE-02 (1)



Can we estimate how likely this is? In a crude way, yes. If we assume that each state has a 50% chance of going for Obama (which is certainly not true--New Mexico is far more likely to do so than Missouri), then all 4096 combinations are equally likely. Of these, 97 lead to a tie, so the probability of a tie is 97/4096 = 2.4%. It is not that likely, but it could happen.

Suppose it does. Then what happens? Turns out the founding fathers thought of this possibility. In fact, it has happened twice (1800 and 1824) that nobody got a majority. In the event nobody has an absolute majority of the EVs, the newly elected House of Representatives chooses the President, with each state getting one vote. If the state delegation split evenly, the state probably won't be able to vote. If either candidate gets 26 votes, he becomes President. However, if no one receives 26 votes, possibly due to some states being unable to vote due to evenly split delegations, then we go to Plan C. The new Senate chooses the Vice President, with each senator getting one vote. If the Senate is divided 50-50, then the President of the Senate--and on Jan. 6, 2013 when this would play out, that would be Joe Biden--gets to cast the deciding vote, presumably for himself. If on Jan. 20, the House still hasn't chosen a President, the new Vice President would serve as acting President until the House got its act together. The deadlock could be broken by a House member switching parties (and you can imagine the wheeling and dealing that might occur to encourage that), a member dying, or if it got that far, the 2014 elections.

The algorithm is not quite watertight though. Suppose the electoral votes are tied, nobody gets 26 votes in the House, the Senate is tied 50-50 and Joe Biden has died after the old Senate has permanently adjourned. President Obama would instantly nominate a new Vice President, but the hamstrung Senate would never confirm him. At that point there would neither be a President elect nor a Vice President elect, so the new Speaker of the House would become President and in his or her absence the President pro tem of the Senate (Daniel Inouye at present). After that it gets hairy. Normally the Secretary of State comes next, but her term would normally end on Jan. 20, 2013 so it is unclear what would happen after that. Probably if all this happens, the Supreme Court would get into the act. Hopefully the electoral college won't be a tie.


Link (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Aug07.html#item-2)

[Actor]

If there's an initial electoral tie then the real show will be what happens before the electors meet in December. Not all states legally bind the electors to vote for the person they are supposedly pledged to vote for. Some states have laws which penalize a renegade elector but constitutionally the elector's vote stands.

So in the event of a tie the electors are going to be lobbied to switch their vote. An elector might say he switched his vote because the popular vote was 52-48% and he went with the 52%.

And there will be attempts to bribe the electors (under the table of course). What happens if the new President wins by one electoral vote and then, a year into the new administration, it's found that an elector was bribed. Does his vote stand? It probably does.

What about this scenario. The house elects Romney 30 - 20. But the Senate elects Biden as vice president 51 - 49. A Romney - Biden administration?

[Rookies]

There has only been a slight drift to Romney in the past year. Still, he's not close adn people like Boxie could be correct. (Ya might as well jump over the cliff on the real horse, rather than some pseudo nag!):lol:

Romney will win NC, and perhaps Iowa.
The President should take ALL the remaining Toss Ups giving him well over 300 E Votes. Florida would be enough.

Done like dinner.

[Tom]

Dinner?
It would be our Last Supper.
4 more years of Obama would be a death blow.

[Actor]

Dinner?
It would be our Last Supper.
4 more years of Obama would be a death blow.So what are your plans when it happens? Move to Canada? Hara Kiri?

[Tom]

Start work on the new nation - one without democrats in it.
We'll get it right this time.

[Actor]

Start work on the new nation - one without democrats in it.
We'll get it right this time.There's a book on how to do that. It's called Mein Kampf.

[Tom]

Yeah, right.
Who more closely resembles Hitler's rise to power, Obama of Romney?
Obama is much like the Hitler of 1930-35 right now.
And all his little people goose stepping behind him.

It's not the right trying to run everyone's lives and make them totally dependent on the Reich. It's not the right burning the constitution like Hitler burned books, stifling debate and free thinking.

[Marshall Bennett]

One difference, Tom, is that Hitler brought his country out of a depression prior to invading Poland and starting WWII. Obama is sending his country towards a depression, many simply don't see it.
Four more years of Obama should seal our fate.

[Tom]

Wow, you mean Hitler was better, at least early on, than Obama? :eek:

[Steve 'StatMan']

Wow, you mean Hitler was better, at least early on, than Obama? :eek:

Depends on one's religion or sexual orientation, and maybe a few other things.

[Actor]

It's not the right trying to run everyone's lives and make them totally dependent on the Reich. It's not the right burning the constitution like Hitler burned books, stifling debate and free thinking.But judging from your post #6 that is exactly what you want to do, take over a democracy without benefit of ballot. I'm just trying to be helpful by pointing to the writings of someone who did it.

[barn32]

Yeah, right.
Who more closely resembles Hitler's rise to power, Obama of Romney?
Obama is much like the Hitler of 1930-35 right now.
And all his little people goose stepping behind him.

It's not the right trying to run everyone's lives and make them totally dependent on the Reich. It's not the right burning the constitution like Hitler burned books, stifling debate and free thinking.Goodwin's Law (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law)

[Actor]

Goodwin's Law (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law) :lol: :lol: :lol:

[Tom]

It would be funny if it were no true.
Control the media, lie about everything, class warfare, blame certain groups for all the problems, ignore the laws, use thugs to drive home your point.......very similar to 1930s Germany. You do understand there is a difference between 1930s and 1940s, right?

[Capper Al]

If it is a tie, and with the Republican Supreme Court, Romney will win.

[Tom]

Doesn't it go to the House if tied?

[Actor]

Doesn't it go to the House if tied?Yes, but in selecting the President each state has one vote. It takes 26 votes to win. In theory the Republicans could have a majority in the House but the Democrats could have a majority of state delegations. Vice versa also applies of course.

CNN has Romney winning 33 - 16 if state delegations remain as they are today.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/26/politics/electoral-college-tie/index.html

[Actor]

http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/26/politics/electoral-college-tie/index.html

In 2000, Washington D.C. elector Barbara Lett-Simmons abstained from casting her electoral vote as a protest against the District's lack of voting representation in Congress. In 2004, an anonymous Minnesota elector voted for John Edwards instead of John Kerry.

Suppose it's not a tie but close, say 270-268. Could two electors be persuaded or bribed to change their vote? Apparently the electors vote by secret ballot.

[mostpost]

It would be funny if it were no true.
Control the media,(Fox News, Breitbart, Rush, Hot Air) lie about everything, (Obama's a Muslim; Obama signed an executive order eliminating the work for welfare requirement; The ACA contains death panels; Holder sold guns to Mexican drug cartels) class warfare, (you mean rich making war on poor right? 'cause if it's the other way around the poor have got a really crappy army.) blame certain groups for all the problems,(You mean like blaming immigrants for crime or blaming unions for the bad economy, or blaming teachers for municipal deficits?) ignore the laws, (For example. wiretapping American citizenx in violation of Fisa laws and waterboarding prisoners in violation of the Geneva Convention. use thugs to drive home your point.......(like the Republican operatives who descended on the Palm Beach County Elections board in 2000 and intimidated the counters into stopping the count.)very similar to 1930s Germany. You do understand there is a difference between 1930s and 1940s, right?

Good points, Tom, but I thought you needed some examples. I was happy to provide them in red.

[Tom]

:sleeping: You could be replaced by a record with a skip in it. And it would make more sense.