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View Full Version : Saratoga Picks: Sat., August 4


Teach
08-04-2012, 11:53 AM
Race One:

:2: Stopshoppingmaria
has been installed as the even-money favorite. Not quite sure she deserves that much regard. After all, she’s finished second in her last three. The Todd Pletcher-trainee has two seconds in two tries on the lawn. Javier Castellano (he’s leveled of from his red-hot streak in Elmont) is in the irons. Castellano will likely need to angle this Southern Halo-bred filly to the outside. It may take some doing in this large field. Bottom line: I still like the horse, but with reservations. If the horse is anywhere near even-money at post time, I’m taking a powder. #7 Vuitton (just the other day I said to my wife, “You wanna go to LV (Vegas).” She replied, “Louis Vuitton, I’d love to!” No wonder people say: “Sei tu pazzo!” Anyway, this horse will be out and going from the get-go, Will she last? A threat. Le Francais, Julien Laparoux, is in the irons. #4 Break The Record has hit the tote in two tries on the lawn - a win and a second. He’s going to be stepping up from his previous digs on the shores of Lake Erie; but he has acquired the chauffeuring services of the most capable Jose Lezcano.

Race Two:
:9: Cape Glory should benefit from his outside post. He’s a distinct threat. He’s cutting back a furlong, that may help. So too are the services of Javier Castellano. The gelding was last seen at Churchill in late June where he finished second at a mile. Can handle the distance. Good morning work-tab. Trainer Ian Wilkes has had three of his horses hit the board in five tries. #5 D’tiger ships in from “Back home in Indiana” where he finished third as a beaten “fave” on the lawn. The lightly-raced five-year old has hit the tote in four of five tries. A recent “bullet” work at “Toga“; first out of over one hundred works. Impressive. Rosie Napravnik for Eoin Harty #8 Starter shortens up to a sprint, that may help. The comment line says he was game in his last race at Churchill. The horse has hit the board in four of 11 lifetime tries. Shaun Bridgmohan rides for Andrew Leggio, Jr. #10 In Speight Ofitall is a well-named Speightstown-bred colt. He switches from turf to dirt. A solid recent work. Joel Rosario in the irons for Rick Dutrow.



Race Three:



:6: El Duro

(when I shot craps, it was cuatro duro or ocho duro) is a very well-bred colt who has the pedigree to win at first asking. There’s no way I’d bet the ranch on this one, but, if the horse lives up to his genealogy, he might just reward his backers. Johnny V. in the irons for trainer Todd Pletcher. #1 Tracker Rocker draws the rail. I‘m not particularly enthused about first-timers on the wood, that is unless this Kris S-bred colt has an early turn of foot. If so, the Nick Zito trainee becomes a factor. Jose Lezcano handles the reins. #4 Fortify is another well-bred two-year old who’s had some excellent recent works. Rosie Napravnik for trainer Mike Maker. #9 Unlikely Scenario might just surprise. Here’s another horse that has some fine pedigree (thank you Jon Forbes). Could benfit from his outside post. Ramon Dominguez for trainer Terri Pompay.



Race Four:



:3: Windafull

broke his maiden in his last. Won like el supremo against slightly weaker. Is a threat to make it two straight. Is seven-for-ten in the money on the lawn. Cornelio Velasquez for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. #11 Gossip Column can be a factor here. A win and three seconds in five tries on the lawn. “The Caracas Conquistador,” Ramon Dominguez, is in the irons for trainer Joe Orseno. Just missed last time despite being bumped against similar in last. Sharp recent work. #4 Carbon County had a recent sharp work. He’s hit the board in six of eight lawn tries. Julien Laparoux for Mike Hushion. #6 Anaphylaxis threw in a clunker in his last. A win and a second in five tries on the grass. Might surprise. Kent Desormeaux for Pablo Hizo.



Race Five:



:6: Equus Prime

has some solid turf breeding in race that is filled with a slew of first-timers. Decent morning work-tab. D. Wayne Lucas hoping to get off the schneid with this one. Alan Garcia in the irons. #9 Balance The Books is a well-bred highly-priced colt. His pedigree includes Lemon Drop Kid and Seeking The Gold. He’s had some solid recent works. His connections feature the red-hot duo of Ramon Dominguez and trainer Chad Brown. #7 Soulsing is another bred-for-the-turf colt. His pedigree says he can handle both the distance and the lawn. #10 Fredericksburg (been there: Rappahannock, Marye’s Heights) also has some solid turf pedigree. A sharp morning work. Jose Lezcano for Mike Matz.



Race Six:

:6: Polioziotto just missed in his maiden-breaking try about a year ago. This lightly raced (why have his connections waited a tear between starts) Hoily Bull-bred ridgling can certainly be a factor in this company. The question: Is he ready? Javier Castellano for Chad Brown. #5 Riverdance Rock stretches out after a second in a sprint at Monmouth. Recent sharp five-furlong work. Keiber Coa for trainer Timothy Hills. #1 Lord Of Love finished third in his last as a distinct long-shot. He now stretches out a furlong. Could add value to an exotic. Wilmer Garcia for John Hertler.


Race Seven:



:8: Palace Malice

looks like “the logical”. He was second in his only start; he was bumped at the quarter pole. He now stretches out. Javier Castellano for Todd Pletcher. #6 Thane is a solidly bred 2-year-old El Prado-bred colt. He had a recent four furlong work in which he drilled five furlongs in a minute, breezing from the gate. Irad Ortiz, Jr. for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin.



Race Eight:



:1: La Cloche

won the Voodoo Dancer at Belmont last month. She was fifth (she was closing) in this same race last year at “The Spa”. Four wins in thirteen tries on the lawn. Eddie Castro will need to angle this horse off the rail. Jim Toner trains. #10 Dealbata has been racing “Across The Pond”. In her only Les Etat-Unis start, she was narrowly second in the Moheganb Sun at Belmont in mid June. #5 Julie’s Love has competred in three U.S. races and won two of those. She was third in a stakes race at Pphilly last time. Is dropping in class, Very much a factor with thewse. Julien Laparoux fotr trainer Graham Motion. #2 Wallis was third to La Cloche in the Voodoo Dancer. Any slight improvement puts this Sadler’s Wells-bred mare in the thick of things. Jose Lezcano for Christophe Clement.


Race Nine:


In the Grade 1 Prioress, I like :6: Agave Kiss. The Tale of the Cat-bred filly burned up more money in the Grade 3 Victory Ride than a fire in a bank vault. The Salt Lake-bred filly had reeled off six straight before finishing up the track in her aforementioned last. In that one she hooked up in a speed duel that saw the first panel go in 21.2 and the half-mile teletimer tripped at :44. Besides, the rail was “dead”. She was totally on “E” when the horses reached the top of the stretch. But, alas, a chance to make amends. An outside post, and the services of Ramon Dominguez for trainer Rudy Rodriguez.Then, there's #5 Judy The Beautry. The Awesome Again-bred filly was second in stakes company on the turf at Churchill (there’s that turf to dirt angle, again). Prior to that she was second in The Spinaway at “The Spa”. Joel Rosario for Wesley Ward.



Race Ten:



Ah, The Grade 1 Whitney to be contested over the distance of a mile and one-eighth for a purse of $750,000. My pick: :6: Ron The Greek. This A.P. Indy-bred horse was last seen winning The Grade 1 Stephen Foster at Churchill. Aslthough he hasn’t raced in a month and a haf, the five-year old has had a string of solid morning wotks. He’s hit the tote in 12 of 19 lifetime starts. The horse is six out of eight on the tote at the distance. Jose Lezcano for the Hall-of-Famer, Bill Mott. #9 Fort Larned easily won The Cornhusker at Prairie Meadows. He now ships in to Bemis Heights. The colt recently “drilled” five furlongs in a furious 58.3. The Mr. Prospector-bred colt has six wins in sixteen lifetime startts. #8 Hymn Book was second in the Grade 2 Suburban. He’s hit the tote in four of five tries at the distance: two wins and two seconds. His stock would go up appreciable if “The Spa” encounters a late afternoon shower. John Velazquez for “Shug” McGaughey. #2 Hunters Bay ships cross the Niagara Fronter to Saratoga. At Woodbine, this Awesome Again-bred horse was last seen winning the Grade 3 Dominion Day. The horse has reeled off three straight at various distances. Emma-Jabne Wilson ships in from across the border to handle the mount for trainer Reade Baker. Could provide value at a price.



Race Eleven:

I’m going with a “Pair of Aces” in the late double, or as they say in Texas Hold’em: American Airlines. My first ace is :1: Inflation Target (I thought the Fed meeting just ended). This Pulpit-bred colt won his last an optional claimer. The horse has hit the tote in six of seven tries. He now stretches our an extra furlong off his last effort. Alan Garcia (off to a slow start at “The Spa”) rides for trainer Richard Violette, Jr. #6 Dominus has not raced in about a year, yet his morning works say: I’m ready! Was last seen at the Spa late last August finishing fourth in the prestigious Grade 1 King’s Bishop. Is this a tune up for that upcoming race? John Velazquez for Tofd Pletcher. #7 Junebugred was last seen compoeting in a Grade 3 race at Oaklawn Park; he finished sixth. Prior to that he won the Smarty Jones. Which horse do we get? Hasn’t raced in five months but most solid morning work-tab. Joe Bravo for Steve Hobby. #5 Star Harbour (not to be confused with Maine’s Bah Hahbah) was last seen fin ishing fourth in an optional claimer at Belmlont over two months ago. Prior to that she won handily in allowance company. She now cuts back a furlong off her last effort. Rajiv Maragh for Bill Mott.


Race Twelve:

In the finale, It’s the other ace, the recently claimed other ace, :1: Balance The Budget. This 3-year-old Concerto-bred colt is dropping faster than Aero- smith’s “Love In An Elevator”. “Livin’ it up while you’re goin’ down…” The DRF is calling it, to quote them: “suspicious. If the colt is readsy, willingh and able, he should prevail. Javier Castellano for Mike Miceli #10 Not Today looks like a threat. The lightly-raced Mr. Prospector-bred gelding has hit the tote twice in two lawn tries. He has faced better. David Cohen (he’s been struggling) for trainer Steve Klesaris. #5 Love Man is winless in three tries on the turf. Yet, this Johannesburg-bred colt fits in this company. Is certainly capable of completing a gimmick. Rosie Napravnik for Mike Trombetta. #2 Manacor is another horse who’s capable of completing a gimmick. Fivge in-the-money efforts in 12 lawn tries. The Sadler’s Wells-bred gelding’s last race was a steeplechase; yet, he might surprise and add value to an exotic.

BlueChip@DRF
08-04-2012, 12:56 PM
(scratched)

BlueChip@DRF
08-04-2012, 01:00 PM
:10: FTW! :)

BlueChip@DRF
08-04-2012, 01:02 PM
:10: FTW! :)

3rd. Where did that :1: come from?