"insights into a race"- instinct or can it be learned?

[shanta]

I have wanted to post about this for a while. I hear people talk about certain handicappers who are said to "just know what line to use" or "he/she usually seems to make the right call about that vulnerable fav". I knew someone who had this talent a few years back. He had told me at the time that his "instincts" into a race came from "lots of practice" and from "being wrong enough times that it hurt"! I have never met him but i heard years ago that jim "the hat" bradshaw had this amazing ability to just look at a racing form and without marking anything would just rip a card apart! I was just curious as to what some of the members thoughts on this subject are!
richie

[JustRalph]

When you have a good one, you know it. You don't worry about your bets at all and you sit back and watch as everything breaks just like you thought. They don't happen very often, but enough to stick with you. Sometimes I look at the form and immediatly see the winner. Most of the time that means the favorite. Other times not. I have watched a race and when my pick starts to make his run from the middle of the pack (just like I thought) I am more relaxed than at any other time. You just know when it's right. You see it in the form.

Recently I caught something in the form while they were loading in the gate at turfway, I had about 30 seconds to drop some cash on AmericaTab. I got it done and a minute later laughed as he came down the stretch splitting horses.....at 11-1...when it seemed so obvious to me what was going to happen.......those are the best .........don't forget who you are playing against......when you beat the crowd.....and solve the puzzle better than most........you win. Bottom line. You know, like when a baseball player is on a streak, they like to say " I am just seeing the ball better than ever"...........same theory.......

[Binder]

Shanta

Have you tried this lately ? I know we have talked about this before
Stare at the Decision Wagering Form for
a few minutes lying down on a couch or sitting alone in a calm
place . just seeing were your winners are coming from
is very helpful. We talked about "Just knowing" and
"having a feeling" after doing this. I know your working very
hard and your results are amazing Maybe you can go back to the DWF.. method and focus on your records
wishing you all the best
Bind

[ranchwest]

You have to find something different.

Then, you have to recognize what you've found.

Years ago, handicappers used the DRF and then got a track program to see which horses were actually entered and which drew in from the also eligible list. If there was no also eligible list, the horses went into the program and might be later announced as a scratch. At least that's the way it generally worked in Louisiana.

One day, I saw a race with two contenders in the DRF, the three and the eight. When I got the program, the eight did not make it into the program. I immediately felt the race belonged to the three. This program oddity might have represented shenanigans and I wasn't going to miss out, but regardless the three was a likely winner.

To make matters better, the five was a lone speed 4 1/2 f horse and couldn't get the 5 f distance.

The 5 went out on about a 6 length lead and 50 yards from the finish the 3 caught the 5 and the 3/5 exacta paid $45.

Sometimes it just jumps out at you and screams loudly.

[COUGAR]

JustRalph said it best. I had 2 play's last week that just hit me in the face with minutes to post. The picture was clear as a bell, and it was set up by the pace shape of the race. One was a good price and the other 2-1 that had value written all over it. When you get this feeling you are not always right, but the close calls, that 20-1 shot that just get's beat or ran a close up 3rd give's me a lot of satisfaction, if not financially, but spiritually knowing you pegged a live horse.

[howardjim]

Picking lines that accurately proxy a horse's potential or most likely performance is instinctive and learned.The accumulated weight of hundreds or thousands of productive and non-productive decisions,if taken to task,become instinct.The larger lesson,for me,is accepting the imprecise probability of my 4-5 contenders.The variations of result from even the best of line selections are almost infinite once the actual race unfolds.The appeal of pinpointing a race is obvious,but for many,myself included,the profit lies in determining where and at what odds the
imprecision yields to a worthy return.

P.S. Can anyone help with my consistently poor formatting.

[DJofSD]

Various thoughts in reply:

Yes, what you've heard about "The Hat" is true. First and foremost you must know he was an very acclaimed track coach (high school?) in OK. And as much as he can tap into his intuition to find contenders and winners, he could not (at least during my PIRCO/O Henry House days) complete the exacta. Doc would cite this fact often especially to illustrate that the place horse often times is NOT the second best win contender.

Yes, you can learn to pick the 'right' line. How do you get to Carnegie Hall - practice, practice, practice. IMO, there's no better way to figure this out for yourself other than go back over your races especially the losing ones and see where (1) you had the wrong line for the winner, (2) you used the wrong line for the losing horse you bet on the lost.

And if you are truely persuing pace handcapping, get rid of the bias and influences of track bias, jockies, trainers, impost, etc., etc., etc. A very good example of what I'm trying to get across is the exercise Doc use to use in the Beaumont classe. What he'd do is hand out the PP's are a real race with all of that other stuff deleted then give you 3 or so minutes to eyeball the race. Surprise, quiet a number of folks got the winner, some the exacta and a few the trifecta (and I'm not talking about SoCal 5 horse fields).

And once you can make all of those connections in your head, you become less and less dependent upon the computer program. You begin to use it to confirm your gut feelings. Yes, you can use the force - or call it gut level feelings, intuition, hunch, whatever. Certainly at least once youve scanned the PP's of a race and just knew who was going to win that race. Well, I think that's what Jimmy does. And just because it takes you and me to use a computer to be able to do that does not mean you can not walk to the window with confidence and cash that winning ticket.

But remember, finding the winner is just half the battle. Betting is the other.

All of this comes out of psychology. And whether or not Doc had a Phd. or not, he did know how to make winners out of losers.

DJofSD

[Niko]

I believe you can get better at it and at times just know when you've got a race.
But, just like chess masters and other professions, not everyone has the same aptitude and talents to advance to the highest level. You can teach people the same procedures and some are able to take it to another level.
We can't all be masters but through practice you can take a little slice of the profits home with you.

[JustMissed]

if you don't know the answer to your question then you already know the answer to your question.

JustMissed

[shanta]

the reason i started this thread had to do with a mistake i made last saturday night at sam houston.it was the first race. before i select lines i like to "look over" the whole race once or twice before doing anything.after doing this i noticed that the 6 horse had 4 races since coming back off a layoff. i don't have the race in front of me (its on my laptop) but i do remember that the last line and the 4th line back had the same speed rating.i also saw that the 4th line was his first race back after the layoff and he ran good(speed rating wise). he was then raced back quickly for his next start. this pattern usually alerts me to checking out that 4th line ( i use best of the last 3 comparable). this night i did not do it for some reason. now the last line i used for him had the same exact speed rating and he projected nowhere. anyway needless to say he wins the race and pays $56.40. i then go back and when i take out the last line and put that 4th line in instead he is all over the machine and an obvious bet! i don't know why i did not follow my usual pattern that night. it cost me big time. :eek:
i obviously was not sharp that night and thats the bottom line.
some great posts to this thread. thanx all!!!!!!

richie :)

[shanta]

thats deep!!!!!!!

[ranchwest]

I usually begin with considering the most recent three races, then the three previous races. It's just a habit of mine to force me to look six back. Sometimes I scan beyond six, but I seldom utilize races that far back.

[Tom]

I merge the works with the PPs in Formulator, then start at the bottom race and work my way up, to the last race, taking note of layoffs, class moves, Beyers, barn swithces, etc. Anyhting that would suggest a new form cycle. I like to get an idea where the horse is heading. I have the basic conditon demands (Quinn's condition book) and see how the horse is developing or holding in terms of the Quinn profile horse for the class. (And speed pars included in that).