Morning Line Chalk

[Aner]

I plan to post some plays that are either the morning line favorite or second morning line favorite. By cherry picking horses that stand out, I hope to have a hit rate of more than 40% and end up with a profit. My idea is to post 100 such horses, but if I get hopelessly behind the goal, I will abort early.

To eliminate decimal problems, my bet on each selection will be $20 to win.


8/1/12

Sar 3-----#3 Corail
Sar 8-----#3 Opus A
Sar 8-----#7 Risky Rachel
Sar 9-----#1 Saginaw
Sar 10---#10 Dan and Sheila

Dmr 6----#3 Panettone

EvD 2-----#9 That Silver
EvD 6-----#6 Gothic Samurai
EvD 8-----#4 Angel Fish
EvD 10---#8 My Sugar Ray
EvD 11---#10 Pirate Mystery

[lamboguy]

gonna watch this today

[LAP_520]

Good Luck Aner on your adventure......

8/1/12

Sar 3-----#3 Corail

But you are going to have trouble betting this filly in Race #3 at Saratoga today

Should be Saratoga Race #5.... #3 Corail.

[sammy the sage]

I plan to post some plays that are either the morning line favorite or second morning line favorite. By cherry picking horses that stand out, I hope to have a hit rate of more than 40% and end up with a profit. My idea is to post 100 such horses, but if I get hopelessly behind the goal, I will abort early.

To eliminate decimal problems, my bet on each selection will be $20 to win.


8/1/12

Sar 8-----#3 Opus A
Sar 8-----#7 Risky Rachel

Well posting TWO chalks in the SAME race....pretty MUCH guarantee's a FAILURE for being profitable...

Unless you hit 70%...good luck WITH that... :faint:

[Aner]

I plan to post some plays that are either the morning line favorite or second morning line favorite. By cherry picking horses that stand out, I hope to have a hit rate of more than 40% and end up with a profit. My idea is to post 100 such horses, but if I get hopelessly behind the goal, I will abort early.

To eliminate decimal problems, my bet on each selection will be $20 to win.


8/1/12

Sar 3-----#3 Corail--------------------39 , 26
Sar 8-----#3 Opus A-----------------xxx , xxx
Sar 8-----#7 Risky Rachel-----------xxx, 28
Sar 9-----#1 Saginaw-----------------73, 44
Sar 10---#10 Dan and Sheila-------xxx, 68

Dmr 6----#3 Panettone--------------xxx. 28

EvD 2-----#9 That Silver-------------xxx, xxx
EvD 6-----#6 Gothic Samurai--------xxx, 28
EvD 8-----#4 Angel Fish--------------104, 50
EvD 10---#8 My Sugar Ray----------xxx, xxx
EvD 11---#10 Pirate Mystery--------xxx, xxx




# of wins----------3
# of races---------11
% frequency------27%

$ bet-------------220
$ back----------- 216
net-------------- (4)
% loss -1.82%

[Aner]

8/2/12

Sar 3-----#6 Joe Vann

AP 2-----#3 Brew Blessings
AP 3-----#8 Quiet Nicole
AP 9-----#8 Dubai Beauty

Dmr 2---#1 Rich Kid
Dmr 5---#4 Lil Miss Macky

[Aner]

Got my head handed to me today. All losers. Darts would be better.



Sar 3-----#6 Joe Vann

AP 2-----#3 Brew Blessings
AP 3-----#8 Quiet Nicole
AP 9-----#8 Dubai Beauty

Dmr 2---#1 Rich Kid
Dmr 5---#4 Lil Miss Macky

For the day:

Bet = $120
Back = $0

Overall:

# of wins 3
# of races 17
% frequency 18%

$ bet 340
$ back 216
net -124
% loss -36%

[PICSIX]

Got my head handed to me today. All losers. Darts would be better.



Sar 3-----#6 Joe Vann

AP 2-----#3 Brew Blessings
AP 3-----#8 Quiet Nicole
AP 9-----#8 Dubai Beauty

Dmr 2---#1 Rich Kid
Dmr 5---#4 Lil Miss Macky

For the day:

Bet = $120
Back = $0

Overall:

# of wins 3
# of races 17
% frequency 18%

$ bet 340
$ back 216
net -124
% loss -36%

I've been down this road and it was a bitch, for me. I wish you the best of luck.

Mike

[Aner]

Chalk for 8/3/12

Sar 2-----#8 Neck of the Moon
Sar 4-----#1 Harbor Breeze
Sar 5-----#9 Jocosity
Sar 10---#9 Ultimate Class

Elp 1-----#5 Sea Song's Hammer
Elp 3-----#5 Tiban

Dmr 3-----#7 Bromelia
Dmr 5-----#5 Cupid's Bling

[Aner]

Chalk for 8/3/12

Sar 2-----#8 Neck of the Moon--------41
Sar 4-----#1 Harbor Breeze-----------xx
Sar 5-----#9 Jocosity------------------36
Sar 10---#9 Ultimate Class-----------59

Elp 1-----#5 Sea Song's Hammer----36
Elp 3-----#5 Tiban--------------------40

Dmr 3-----#7 Bromelia
Dmr 5-----#5 Cupid's Bling


For the day:

# of wins---------5
# of races--------8
% frequency-----62%

$ bet------------160
$ back----------212
net--------------52
% profit--------32%





Overall;

# of wins----------8
# of races--------25
% frequency-----32%

$ bet------------500
$ back----------428
net--------------(72)
% loss----------(14)

[Aner]

Chalk for 8/4/12

Sar 3-----#8 Favor Factor
Sar 5-----#5 Winning Cause

Mnr 1-----#1 Circle Unbroken
Mnr 7-----#1 Tapizar
Mrn 9-----#8 El Commodore

Dmr 2-----#7 Lamm
Dmr 3-----#4 The Humancomplaint
Drm 5-----#3 Rolling Fog
Dmr 6-----#6 Master Chef
Dmr 8-----#1 Include Me Out
Dmr 9-----#6 Fire Break
Dmr 10---#6 Addendum

[Aner]

08/04/12


xx Sar 3-- #8 Favor Factor (scratched)
26 Sar 5-- #5 Winning Cause
27 Mnr 1-- #1 Circle Unbroken
28 Mnr 7-- #1 Tapizar----34
29 Mnr 9-- #8 El Commodore
30 Dmr 2-- #7 Lamm----84
31 Dmr 3-- #4 The Humancomplaint
32 Dmr 5-- #3 Rolling Fog----40
33 Dmr 6-- # 6 Master Chef
34 Dmr 8-- #1 Include Me Out----52
35 Dmr 9-- #6 Fire Break
36 Dmr 10-- #6 Addendum----64

For the day:

# of wins---------5
# of races--------11
% frequency-----45%

$ bet------------220
$ back----------274
net--------------54
% profit--------24%





Overall;

# of wins---------13
# of races--------36
% frequency-----36%

$ bet------------720
$ back----------702
net--------------(18)
% loss----------(3)

[Aner]

Chalk for 8/5/12

Sar 4-----#7 Willet
Sar 6-----#5 Three Hearts
Dmr 4----#1 Caminetto
Dmr 8----#4 Scherer Magic
Dmr 11--#11 Coranto

[Dave Schwartz]

Aner,

I absolutely salute your effort. I think your ultimate result will surprise people.

:ThmbUp:


This would include the people who say things like this:

Well posting TWO chalks in the SAME race....pretty MUCH guarantee's a FAILURE for being profitable...

While I am not suggesting that playing two low-priced horses in the same race is OFTEN a good idea, I find that there are MANY races where the winner is going to come from the top two a huge percentage of the time and that it is the only logical way to play.

Being able to tell when such races occur is a major key to being a winning player.

My experience in those kinds of races are that the top 2 in an exacta box may be profitable as well.

I expect that when your 100 races are finished, you will wind up with something like 38-42% winners and somewhere around -3% to +3% ROI.


I know of one person who took my Monty Hall Problem video (http://thehorsehandicappingauthority.com/show-3-horse-handicapping-live-with-dave-schwartz/) seminar to heart and it turned him into a professional player. He routinely hits slightly over 40% winners and with a mild "chase the money" betting system wins consistently.

Of course, the world will continue to tell you this is just plain wrong; that you cannot possibly win doing this; that everybody knows how stupid this is.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Enigma]

Aner,

I fully concur with Dave's comments. I have proved it in the past having successfully posted batches of 100 M/L favorites all showing a positive return on different web-sites. However in October of 2011 my returns were diminishing as the average mutuel return was eroded to a non acceptable level. I blame the "whales", purse structure and a group of wealthy owners who drop their horses to low levels to gain winners. Today we have short fields with 1/5 & 2/5 chalk in 4,000 claiming races. Unfortunately my "GOLDEN GOOSE" is no longer available.

I applaud your endeavors and wish you the very best.

Enigma.

[DeltaLover]

Aner,

I know of one person who took my Monty Hall Problem video (http://thehorsehandicappingauthority.com/show-3-horse-handicapping-live-with-dave-schwartz/) seminar to heart and it turned him into a professional player. He routinely hits slightly over 40% winners and with a mild "chase the money" betting system wins consistently.


With all the respect I would like to see some proof of it. I believe that what you describe here is simply impossible.

[Aner]

Nothing today.


Chalk for 8/5/12

Sar 4-----#7 Willet-----------------scratched
Sar 6-----#5 Three Hearts---------scratched
Dmr 4----#1 Caminetto
Dmr 8----#4 Scherer Magic
Dmr 11--#11 Coranto

For the day:

# of wins--- 0
# of races--- 3
% frequency--- 0%

$ bet---60
$ back---0
net--- (60)
% loss---100%

Overall:

# of wins-- 13
# of races-- 39
% frequency-- 33%

$ bet-- 780
$ back-- 702
net--(78)
% loss-- -10%

[Aner]

Chalk for 8/6/12

Sar 1-----#7 Dreaming of Julia
Sar 3-----#11 Ea
Sar 8-----#1A Starformer
Sar 9-----#7 A Diehl

[Aner]

08/06/12

40 Sar 1 #7 Dreaming of Julia---28
41 Sar 3 #11 Ea--- 58
42 Sar 8 #1A Starformer---
43 Sar 9 #7 A Diehl---

For the day:

# of wins---2
# of races--4
% frequency---50

$ bet---80
$ back---86
$ net--- +6
% gain---7%

Overall:

# of wins---15
# of races---43
% frequency---35%

$ bet--- 860
$ back--- 788
$ net--- (72)
% loss--- (8%)

[Aner]

Aner,

I fully concur with Dave's comments. I have proved it in the past having successfully posted batches of 100 M/L favorites all showing a positive return on different web-sites. However in October of 2011 my returns were diminishing as the average mutuel return was eroded to a non acceptable level. I blame the "whales", purse structure and a group of wealthy owners who drop their horses to low levels to gain winners. Today we have short fields with 1/5 & 2/5 chalk in 4,000 claiming races. Unfortunately my "GOLDEN GOOSE" is no longer available.

I applaud your endeavors and wish you the very best.

Enigma.

Enigma,

I think you are correct - it would be hard just playing selected favorites to make significant money.

In working up the rules to decide which favorites were really better, I found 424 qualifying races and 43% of the picks won. Profit was 4%. Of course back fitting data is easy. It is the forward plays that really count.

In my opinion, the value of finding horses that win at a significantly higher rate is not in betting them to win. In "good chalk" races I plan to use the horse on top in vertical bets and single him in horizontal bets. The favorites in "bad chalk" races hit about 28%. In those races I plan to find longer shots to use on top in the exotics. Don't have enough data to know if this works, but the logic seems sound.

Best of luck.

Aner

[Dave Schwartz]

Aner,

I know you have the Renegade Handicapper. Try picking some contenders using something besides ML and then apply RenH.

I think you will be pleased with the result.


Dave

[Aner]

Chalk for 8/8/12


44 Sar 1--- #5 Physical Delivery
45 Sar 5--- #2 Sportswriter
46 Sar 9--- #10 Roaring Conquest
47 Dmr 2--- #6 Power Series
48 Dmr 3--- #9 Atticus Jack
49 Dmr 7--- #7 Executiveprivilege

[Aner]

08/08/12
44 Sar 1 #5 Physical Delivery
45 Sar 5 #2 Sportswriter 128
xx Sar 9 #10 Roaring Conquest (scratched)
46 Dmr 2 #6 Power Series
47 Dmr 3 #9 Atticus Jack
48 Dmr 7 #7 Executiveprivilege 28

For the day:

# of wins-----2
# of races----5
% frequency--40%
$ bet----100
$ back---156
net---+56
% gain---56%

Overall:

# of wins--- 17
# of races--- 48
% frequency--- 35%

$ bet--- 960
$ back--- 944
net--------(16)
% loss--- (2%)

[Aner]

08/08/12

49 Sar 4--- #8 Madman Diaries
50 Sar 5--- #5 Jump for Kitten
51 Sar 6--- #7 Concert Stage
52 Sar 7--- #11 Stormy Beauty
53 Sar 10--- #6 Rover
54 AP 2--- #4 Rockisland Express
55 AP 5--- #3 Givenchi
56 Dmr 4--- #6 Van Brit

[Aner]

08/09/12

49 Sar 4 #8 Madman Diaries
50 Sar 5 #5 Jump for Kitten---66
51 Sar 6 #7 Concert Stage---43
52 Sar 7 #11 Stormy Beauty---81
53 Sar 10 #6 Rover
xx AP 2 #4 Rockisland Express(scratched)
54 AP 5 #3 Givenchi
55 Dmr 4 #6 Van Brit---54









For the day:

# of wins--- 4
# of races--- 7
% frequency---57%

$ bet---140
$ back---244
net--- +104
% profit---+74%

Overall:

# of wins--- 21
# of races--- 55
% frequency--- 38%

$ bet---1100
$ back--1188
net------+88
% gain--- 8%

[Aner]

Cough. Cough.

08/11/12

56 Sar 6--- #4 Archwarrior
57 Sar 7--- #2 To Dubai
58 Sar 9--- #4 Overcommunication
59 Sar 10--- #8 Change of Command
60 Elp 3--- #7 Don Balcazio
61 Elp 5--- #7 Chalice
62 Elp 6--- #4 Blingboy
63 Dmr 2--- #2 Euroglide
64 Dmr 4--- #6 Dave's Pacemaker
65 Dmr 9--- #8 Meadow Road

[Aner]

08/11/12

xx Sar 6--- #4 Archwarrior(scratched)
56 Sar 7--- #2 To Dubai--- 94
57 Sar 9--- #4 Overcommunication
xx Sar 10--- #8 Change of Command (scratched)
58 Elp 3--- #7 Don Balcazio--- 66
59 Elp 5--- #7 Chalice
60 Elp 6--- #4 Blingboy--- 54
61 Dmr 2--- #2 Euroglide
xx Dmr 4--- #6 Dave's Pacemaker (scratched)
62 Dmr 9--- #8 Meadow Road


For the day:

# of wins---3
# of races---7
% frequency---43%

$ bet---140
$ back---214
net--- +74
% profit---+53%

Overall:

# of wins---24
# of races---62
% frequency---39%

$ bet---1240
$ back--1402
net---+162
% profit---+13%

[bugboy]

nice job buddy :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Jay Trotter]

Way to go Aner! :ThmbUp:

[Aner]

08/12/12

63 Sar 2--- #7 My Sparky
64 Sar 3--- #10 My Unbridled Storm
65 Sar 4--- #5 Deciphering Dreams
66 Sar 6 ---#8 Seasoned Warrior
67 Sar 9--- #1 Anchovy
68 Dmr 3--- #7 No Silent
69 Dmr 5--- #11 Yer Woman
70 Dmr 6--- #4 Golden Production

[Aner]

08/12/12

63 Sar 2--- #7 My Sparky---- 78
64 Sar 3--- #10 My Unbridled Storm
65 Sar 4--- #5 Deciphering Dreams
66 Sar 6--- #8 Seasoned Warrior---- 31
67 Sar 9--- #1 Anchovy
68 Dmr 3--- #7 No Silent
69 Dmr 5--- #11 Yer Woman
70 Dmr 6--- #4 Golden Production



For the day:

# of wins---2
# of races---8
% frequency---25%

$ bet---160
$ back--109
net--- (51)
% loss---(32)

Overall:

# of wins--- 26
# of races--- 70
% frequency--- 37%

$ bet--- 1400
$ back--- 1511
net--- 111
% profit---+8%

[Aner]

Chalk for 8/13/12

Sar 1-----#6 Police Chatter
Sar 6-----#1 Primal Baby
Sar 6-----#5 Roman Renegade
Sar 7-----#3 Coconut Shrimp
Sar 10----#6 Magical Season

[Aner]

08/13/12

71 Sar 1---#6 Police Chatter-------xx
72 Sar 6---#1 Primal Baby---------54
73 Sar 6---#5 Roman Renegade---xx
74 Sar 7---#3 Coconut Schimp----66
75 Sar 10---#6 Magical Season---xx


For the Day:


# of wins---2
# of races---5
% frequency---40%

$ bet---100
$ back---120
$ net---20
% profit---+20%

Overall:

# of wins---28
# of races---75
% frequency---37%

$ bet---1500
$ back---1631
net-----+131
% profit--+9%

[Aner]

08/15/12

76 Sar 5--- #3 Bridgetown
77 Sar 6--- #6 Boots Ahead
78 Sar 8--- #1 Crown the Chief
79 Dmr 1--- #6 Muny
80 Dmr 5--- #2 My Gal Candy
81 EvD 3--- #7 Go Lil Tiger
82 EvD 7--- #1 Jones Focus

[Aner]

08/15/12

76 Sar 5--- #3 Bridgetown---49
77 Sar 6--- #6 Boots Ahead---69
78 Sar 8--- #1 Crown the Chief---
79 Dmr 1--- #6 Muny-----94
xx Dmr 5--- #2 My Gal Candy (scratched)---xx
80 EvD 3--- #7 Go Lil Tiger---28
81 EvD 7--- #1 Jones Focus---


For the Day:

# of wins---4
# of races---6
% frequency---67%


$ bet-----120
$ back---240
net-------120
% profit---50%

Overall:

# of wins---32
# of races---81
% frequency---40%



$ bet----1620
$ back---1871
$ net------+251
% profit---+15%

[DeltaLover]

IMPRESSIVE KEEP ON THE GREAT JOB
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Aner]

08/16/12

82--- Sar 7--- #7 Rhonin Victoria
83--- Sar10--- #7 Compliance Officer
84--- AP 1--- #4 Dr Ballenger
85--- AP 2--- #7 Scotchirish
86--- AP 9--- #12 Wildcat Devil
87--- Dmr 8--- #6 Madeoftherightstuf

[Aner]

08/16/12

82--- Sar 7--- #7 Rhonin Victoria
83--- Sar10--- #7 Compliance Officer
84--- AP 1--- #4 Dr Ballenger
85--- AP 2--- #7 Scotchirish
86--- AP 9--- #12 Wildcat Devil
87--- Dmr 8--- #6 Madeoftherightstuf--- 42



For the day:

# of wins---1
# of races---6
% frequency---16%

$ bet---120
$ back--42
net--- (78)
% loss---(65)

Overall:

# of wins---33
# of races---87
% frequency---38%

$ bet--- 1740
$ back--- 1913
net-------+173
% profit---+10%

[Aner]

08/17/12

88--- Sar 2--- #5 Moment in Dixie
89--- Sar 7--- #1 Heading to Toga
90--- AP 1--- #5 China
91--- AP 6--- #6 Runningout of Cash
92--- AP 7--- #6 Frank's Hope
93--- Dmr 5--- #3 No Rachmones

[Aner]

08/17/12

88--- Sar 2--- #5 Moment in Dixie
89--- Sar 7--- #1 Heading to Toga---64
90--- AP 1--- #5 China-------------- 48
91--- AP 6--- #6 Runningout of Cash
92--- AP 7--- #6 Frank's Hope-------70
93--- Dmr 5--- #3 No Rachmones-----76


For the day:

# of wins--------4
# of races-------6
% frequency----67%

$ bet-----120
$ back---258
net-----+138
% profit---115%


Overall:

# of wins---37
# of races---93
% frequency---40%

$ bet-------1860
$ back------2171
net---------+311
% profit-----17%

[Aner]

Seven races to go. I need 3 winners to get the 40% hit rate I'm aiming at.

08/18/12

94--- Sar 4--- #4 Violence
95--- Sar 9--- #9 Turbo Compressor
96--- AP 1--- #8 Hammers Terror
97--- AP 10--- #7 Aruna
98--- Dmr 4--- #1 Miss Lady Ellen
99--- Dmr 8--- #2 Lady of Shamrock
100--- Dmr 9--- #12 Dynamic Diva

[Aner]

08/18/12

94 Sar 4--- #4 Violence---36
95 Sar 9--- #9 Turbo Compressor
96 AP 1--- #8 Hammers Terror
97 AP 10--- #7 Aruna
98 Dmr 4--- #1 Miss Lady Ellen
99 Dmr 8--- #2 Lady of Shamrock---40
100 Dmr 9--- #12 Dynamic Diva--34






For the day:

# of wins---3
# of races---7
% frequency---43%

$ bet---140
$ back--110
net--- (30)
% loss---(21)

Overall: Test Done:

# of wins--------40
# of races------100
% frequency---40%

$ bet------2000
$ back-----2281
net---------+281
% profit--+14%

[Aner]

Aner,

I absolutely salute your effort. I think your ultimate result will surprise people.

:ThmbUp:


This would include the people who say things like this:



While I am not suggesting that playing two low-priced horses in the same race is OFTEN a good idea, I find that there are MANY races where the winner is going to come from the top two a huge percentage of the time and that it is the only logical way to play.

Being able to tell when such races occur is a major key to being a winning player.

My experience in those kinds of races are that the top 2 in an exacta box may be profitable as well.

I expect that when your 100 races are finished, you will wind up with something like 38-42% winners and somewhere around -3% to +3% ROI.


I know of one person who took my Monty Hall Problem video (http://thehorsehandicappingauthority.com/show-3-horse-handicapping-live-with-dave-schwartz/) seminar to heart and it turned him into a professional player. He routinely hits slightly over 40% winners and with a mild "chase the money" betting system wins consistently.

Of course, the world will continue to tell you this is just plain wrong; that you cannot possibly win doing this; that everybody knows how stupid this is.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Your prediction of the hit rate was spot on, but your estimate of ROI was a little weak.

# of wins--- 40
# of races--- 100
% frequency--- 40%

$ be---t 2000
$ back--- 2281
net--- 281
% profit--- 14%

[Dave Schwartz]

I am just dying for a chance to ask you some very poignant questions.

Perhaps we could chat sometime?

Dave

[Jay Trotter]

I am just dying for a chance to ask you some very poignant questions.

Perhaps we could chat sometime?

DaveI think he charges about $100/hour for consultations! :lol:

[HuggingTheRail]

Well played Aner....Kudos! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Dave Schwartz]

And I would gladly pay it.

[Aner]

Forgive me for boasting a bit. Setting goals and meeting them is heady stuff.



There is one idea that has been preached on this board for as long as I can remember. PASS RACES WHERE YOU DO NOT HAVE A STRONG OPINION. I have always believed this while continuing to play every race available. People don't necessarily do smart things that are true, smart and good. If they did, there would be no smokers or criminals. This study brought this truth to the fore for me.



In one of "blue shirt" Dave's lectures, he said it was not good enough to just chart the progress of your contenders, but you should check how horses you deem non-contenders (same odds range) are doing. Your contenders should significantly out perform your non-contenders. If not, you have work to do.

In this case the "non-contenders" are the two lowest morning line favorites in races I passed as too competitive to find a standout.

--------------------------------------------------------
ML favorites in passed races:

63 winners for 212 races (30%)

Loss was $916 for $4240 bet (-21% loss)

-------------------------------------------------------


2nd ML favorite in passed races:

32 winners for 212 races (15%)

Loss was $1363 for $4240 bet (-32% loss)

-----------------------------------------------------------

Compare this to the 100 races I played.
-----------------------------------------------------------
ML favorite:

28 winners for 69 races (41%)

profit was $44 for $1380 bet (+3%)
-----------------------------------------------------------

2nd MLF

12 winners for 31 races (39%)

profit was $237 for $620 bet (+38%)


-----------------------------------------------------------

There is still a lot of action. Good favorites are found in about 30% of the races. Most of the profit came from the 2MLF ( usually higher odds). However, the 2MLF in non-playable races did terrible.


When I am playing live races there are always some exacta or tri possibilities that are irresistible. My best chance to make money is to make the bets before the first race and return to watch replays after the races are all done. Have I been able to do this? Not yet.

[PICSIX]

Nice job! :ThmbUp:

[Enigma]

Congrats,

More conformation that it is more than possible to become a winning player wagering on valid 1st and 2nd favorites.

[DeltaLover]

Congrats,

More conformation that it is more than possible to become a winning player wagering on valid 1st and 2nd favorites.

Although the sample is small I agree that it is a very strong indicator that something like this is possible...

Hats off to Anet...

[ArlJim78]

I just saw this today. Very nicely done.

[Jingle]

I too just saw this today--congrats on an excellent showing. You must have some heads turning now who felt like me that if you bet like the crowd you'll end up like the crowd--a loser. Nice job and thanks for your courage in sticking your neck out on a great handicapping discussion board. Can I buy you a beer--or two?

[Solid_Gold]

While 14% is a great return on any investment but.

I wonder how many $2.00 punters would risk their 2 bucks to win $.28 cents?

Yes, I agree betting one of the top 2 favorites over the long haul will produce a profit simply based on the statistics that the favorite wins about 33% and the 2nd choice wins about 21% of ALL races run in N.A. since forever. So right from the get go you'll cash over half the races.
With some capping skills ( Aner) and some common sense this is a workable plan for a professional capper!

However, for the $2/ recreational player this would not be an option.

[Dave Schwartz]

I too just saw this today--congrats on an excellent showing. You must have some heads turning now who felt like me that if you bet like the crowd you'll end up like the crowd--a loser. Nice job and thanks for your courage in sticking your neck out on a great handicapping discussion board. Can I buy you a beer--or two?


Like you can get to the front of THAT line, Jingle!

Say, do you still have that place out on the Cape? Maybe you (and me) could invite him out there and lock the doors until he talks.

But I do admit that plying him with alcohol is a good start.

[Jingle]

Dave--still have the place on the Cape and just back after 6 weeks. Kids and grandkids take over now.

Great idea on Aner but we have to limit him to just two beers. I experienced what can happen when 1 is too many and 100 isn't enough. But for the Grace of God......!! I think you get the drift.