Spot plays for Wednesday 8-1-12

[KidCapper]

Here are a few I think have a good shot on Wednesday. There are 13 plays altogether. Listed in post time order. Will update tomorrow for scratches. On to the picks.

Suffolk Race -4 The :4: . 6-1 ML shot for 27% trainer. Has had 3 starts since the layoff. 2 off-tracks sprint and a dirt route. Finally get the fast dirt sprint today on the cutback for a 14% trainer move. Jockey change to 23% rider today.

Saratoga Race -3 The :8: . At 8-1 on the line for Rice hitting at 15% with turf runners. Showed at different dimension last out when closing from way back at 6f on the weeds. Has speed to lay close n pounce at a price.

Saratoga Race -5 The :4: . Ran an impressive 94 Bris fig at first asking for Goldberg and Castellano. 3 workouts since last race signals readiness to graduate today.

Saratoga Race -7 The :1: . 10-1 shot has speed and the rail in this turf sprint. Brown keeps the bug boy up for this. Which most likely means they've got theft on the mind. Catch this one on the cutback to 5.5F to cash.

Penn Race -2 The :3: . 8-1 on the line ran a disappointing 3rd to the probable chalk in here last out. Jockey switch to the hot riding Cora for this who has finished 1-2 in 11 of last 28 rides. Improved effort looming.

Delmar Race -4 The :5: . 3rd time off the layoff for Gaines hitting at 24% with the move. Double drops in class for another 17% angle. Career high Bris figure came at this track. Bejarano up.

Presque Isle Race -4 The :7: . I'd love to get 8-1 on this Ferraro runner. Claimed last out by 42% first off the claim trainer. Drops from MSW to Md Claim for another 25% move. Wake-up call today?

Santa Rosa Race -6 The :10: . 3rd time off the layoff for an 18% trainer move. Slight bounce last out off the huge effort off the bench 2 back. 6-1 is a good offer here.

Hoosier Race -4 The :5: . Solid 2nd in her debut on the weeds last out. Switches to the main track today for 17% turf-to-dirt trainer. Workout Jun 08 signals this one will have no problem with the switch.

Penn Race -5 The :3: . 5-2 morning line shot looks the part in her for Capuano. Ships in from Del for 18% shipping trainer. Drops in class for another 20% move. And trainer does well at 23% when racing after losing as the favorite.

Hoosier Race -7 The :1: . Taking a bit of a stab with this 10-1 shot. Last 2 have been ok on the turf course at IND. Gets back to the main track today, site of his biggest Bris figure race. Drops back in with friends today after the stakes flop last out. Some things to like.

Evangeline Race -7 The :3: . 3rd time off the bench for low percentage outfit. Double drops in class after an even finish last out. Last race Bris fig (70) keep this one in the picture.

Evangeline Race -8 The :5: . 4-1 to close out my picks for Wednesday. 3rd time off the layoff for trainer hitting 27% at the meet. Easy winner last out had plenty in the tank at the line. Improving sort may just be getting good at the right time.

Good Luck N Good Racing From The KidCapper !!

[KidCapper]

Survived the scratch board for most of my morning picks. Don't have the changes at Evangeline yet. One change at Suffolk, the track is sloppy. I will still make my play there on the off-going.

Good Luck Today.

[captainhot]

Kid, I like the :4::9: exacta box in the first at Saratoga.
The :4: is definitely the horse to beat, but the :9: Quite a Dude tore up the Tampa turf the last two years. I think :9:'s odds are a little bit high since he was just claimed from Ness, but Feliciano is a good horseman and Sheldon Russell comes up to ride. Worth a play at current odds.

[KidCapper]

Hey Capt. I have to run out to work this afternoon. I won't be around long here today. I have a bunch I like tonight that I will be playing. Good Luck today.

[PhantomOnTour]

Okay Kid, Race 1 at Sar offers some value.
I like 8-4-7-10

The front end is murky...maybe Rosario guns #7 or the natural speed of the 4 or 8 could put them on top early. Think someone gets the jump and wires this bunch.
#4 is just too tough to try to beat out of the exacta...best two races were turf sprints on firm ground, loves Sar (best dirt race was here too), sharp, good connections, bad price though.
TRI:
4 w 7-8-10 w 5-7-8-10
7-8 w 4 w 5-7-8-10
WIN:
7-8

[captainhot]

Phantom, Great call on the 8. Wilmer guns another one to the lead.

[PhantomOnTour]

Phantom, Great call on the 8. Wilmer guns another one to the lead.
Thx...chalk #4 pulled up...wonder how that race would have turned out otherwise.
#6 was a surprise so all i had was the win bet...knew that race would be won from close up...barely

[PhantomOnTour]

only value is #6 but i am passing this one

[Robert Fischer]

2 could be decent r2

just getting moving today after errands...

[KidCapper]

2 could be decent r2

just getting moving today after errands...

Good Call on the :2: in a strangely run race. Moves...middle moves...hangs...

[captainhot]

Classic Point :6: dropped an anchor down the stretch.

[Robert Fischer]

weird race.

i didn't bet the 2(or anyone), but the 6 "crushed them", and then the race completely fell apart for the 2 to come back.:confused:

edit = agree^ ,
Good Call on the :2: in a strangely run race. Moves...middle moves...hangs...

[PhantomOnTour]

Nice call Rob

good thing i decided to pass this one...liked #6...woulda been heartbreak

[PhantomOnTour]

Another good one...going with a pair of 6-1 shots...#6 and #9.
Both working very well; #6 should get a nice trip off a hot pace and #9 is the E of the E if he is sent by Castellano. Also love Dogwood runners on turf at Sar.
Nice race with the potential for a balls out pace to fall apart

Going against 2nd choice #5 at 4-1...won in slow time, many chances since then, great pace to chase last time, almost always comes up short.
The #11 must be used imo

[Robert Fischer]

this is a spread race IMO

the 6 has at least found consistent form, if not improving (despite decreasing speed fig last).
Castro can get a response, but timing is key here and this one will have to depend on moving last. risky.

11 is very solid, but also overbet UNDERLAY?.

[PhantomOnTour]

ex box 6-9-11
win:9

[Robert Fischer]

Another good one...going with a pair of 6-1 shots...#6 and #9.
Both working very well; #6 should get a nice trip off a hot pace and #9 is the E of the E if he is sent by Castellano. Also love Dogwood runners on turf at Sar.
Nice race with the potential for a balls out pace to fall apart

good call on the 9, horse ran to form or better, + the pace scenario turned out to be better than expected. :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

Suffolk Race -4 The :4: . 6-1 ML shot for 27% trainer. Has had 3 starts since the layoff. 2 off-tracks sprint and a dirt route. Finally get the fast dirt sprint today on the cutback for a 14% trainer move. Jockey change to 23% rider today.

nearing the gate post time...

7 is getting bet more than i thought??

846 ex

[PhantomOnTour]

this is strictly a 2-7-11 and i won't use anyone else...field full of plodders.
#11 is a wire to wire threat but the 2-7 will both keep him honest...race will be won on or near the front imo.

[Robert Fischer]

Great call over @ Suf Kid! :ThmbUp:

[PhantomOnTour]

#1 looks good on the track...gonna use him underneath.
#11 loses ground at every call, bred for sprints, looks like a sprinter in the flesh, thinking he can't hold on all the way.

EX:
2-7 w 1-2-7-9-11
WIN:
2

[Robert Fischer]

race 4 -

:2: sports day to pick up some of the pieces. I don't know if he can win without some collapse here.

:10: bundestag = great "turn runner" and solid finisher. This sounds crazy but this type of horse would do well to move prematurely and open up on the turn.

add in the logicals 7/11

what bothers me w/out capping every horse is the chance for someone cheap to contest the pace with the array of outsiders here...

[JimG]

SAR race 4 EX Box 1 with 347,11 and 1 to win

[PhantomOnTour]

#1 looks good on the track...gonna use him underneath.
#11 loses ground at every call, bred for sprints, looks like a sprinter in the flesh, thinking he can't hold on all the way.

EX:
2-7 w 1-2-7-9-11
WIN:
2
well that stunk

[Robert Fischer]

3 is a quality animal and it's in top shape.
Like most TP runners/newrunners this meet she is nervous. He seems to have made a mild adjustment after horses were way too nervous to start the meet and some weren't firing.

the one issue here is that with pressure to win, she is likely just put out in front, but you have 7 here and those 2 most like run off. but some pace pressure.

5 is a nice looking filly but i can't back here.

[PhantomOnTour]

Sar R5:

this 3 looks like a million bucks out there...this oughta be a slaughta
no bet on dirt Mdn or MSW 2yr old races for me
want some value? maybe #2

[Robert Fischer]

soooo glad 8k came in on the 3 shw after post time

2.40(2.20 expected) ---> 2.10 :bang:

edit :) ---> 2.30 with the late money on 4 as well out of top3

maybe tote is just dumping late here, or maybe 2 late big bets. Thought 5k at least by 1 person/single wager on winner late.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I find it odd that Dominguez is not assigned to any favorites today.

[PhantomOnTour]

nice one here

#6 Runaway Jim is a threat to do just that if Leparoux and the #5 don't engage early. If they do i am looking for the stalker that gets the jump on the deep closing chalk #3...i'll try Rosie on #2 at 12-1.
She moves right and she can put a lil distance btw her and the 3-4. Distance is the question but she'll be close throughout i hope. Get a piece for me at a good price.
Originally liked the #9 but he's way overbet at 4-1...very consistent and i gotta use somewhere

[PhantomOnTour]

EX:
5-6 w 1-2-3-5-6-9
WIN:
2-6

***edited to add #1 in 2nd in exacta bet

[Robert Fischer]

:1: is a good price here.

but i will chicken out and watch.

range of competitors

[Robert Fischer]

so much for watching

hoping that was a 5-1

[PhantomOnTour]

EX:
5-6 w 1-2-3-5-6-9
WIN:
2-6

***edited to add #1 in 2nd in exacta bet
whew...added the #1 late
weird pace scene with a rank #2 suddenly rushing up into a 4 wide duel...#5 really sat the trip

[BlueChip@DRF]

They are pounding on Wilmer in the 7th. Well, not pounding, but really liking him.

[PhantomOnTour]

Sar R7:
#5 gonna get there today

Sar R8:
think Opus A #3 is gonna blitz em

gotta run

[captainhot]

Have to go with my man, Wilmer.
:1::6::10::3:

[Robert Fischer]

They are pounding on Wilmer in the 7th. Well, not pounding, but really liking him.

she ran big last time on a fast pace.
should be right there again.

:1::10::3::6:

[LAP_520]

SAR race #7

#1 Stay Composed...... looks like Wilmer was not prepared for a quick shift....that is not like Bruce to have a loose saddle hitch.
:confused: :confused: :confused:

[Robert Fischer]

r8
:3:
pass , too tough!

i could see the 5 running big and making the 7 and 6 tire

if that happens :3::1::8:

spread race, but then again the 7 could just fire... 3 seems to benefit regardless

[Robert Fischer]

or 5 runs to his odds and 7,6 run away...

r9 is another puzzle

why does Jacobson run 5 FIDDLER'S AFLEET here?? for 2nd money?
Saginaw (jacobson, :1: was simply over-spotted in the Met right?? or is this a comeback/prep for the favorite 1?

would have rather these 2 have been coupled, (but not if I had inside info)...

:confused: gonna work on race 10 now.

[Robert Fischer]

i really dislike Fiddler's Afleet.

Saginaw should win unless Bandbox beats him.

:1::3:

exotics add :7::9:

[Mr G]

5 MTP to race 9 and Ramon on the 7, Uncle T Seven, is at 6-1.....A horse with Seven in its name in the 7 post with Ramon....I'll take that at 6-1

$20 Win 7
$100.00 Place 7

[Robert Fischer]

r10

:6: :3: are extremely well meant here , include


guess along with the pletcher entries? 10,2..

----
edit
:6::10::3: demand a price

[Mr G]

I can help you guys with your handicapping....any horse I pick you make an automatic throw out.


Race 10

# 9, Doublespeak 20-1

$20 show

[KidCapper]

Suffolk Race -4 The :4: . 6-1 ML shot for 27% trainer. Has had 3 starts since the layoff. 2 off-tracks sprint and a dirt route. Finally get the fast dirt sprint today on the cutback for a 14% trainer move. Jockey change to 23% rider today.

:4: won and paid $15.00 $5.00 $3.20

Saratoga Race -3 The :8: . At 8-1 on the line for Rice hitting at 15% with turf runners. Showed at different dimension last out when closing from way back at 6f on the weeds. Has speed to lay close n pounce at a price.

:8: dead heat for 2nd paid $5.10 $6.90

Saratoga Race -5 The :4: . Ran an impressive 94 Bris fig at first asking for Goldberg and Castellano. 3 workouts since last race signals readiness to graduate today.

:4: ran 4th

Saratoga Race -7 The :1: . 10-1 shot has speed and the rail in this turf sprint. Brown keeps the bug boy up for this. Which most likely means they've got theft on the mind. Catch this one on the cutback to 5.5F to cash.

:1: dumped jockey at start

Penn Race -2 The :3: . 8-1 on the line ran a disappointing 3rd to the probable chalk in here last out. Jockey switch to the hot riding Cora for this who has finished 1-2 in 11 of last 28 rides. Improved effort looming.

:3: ran 3rd and paid $2.60

Delmar Race -4 The :5: . 3rd time off the layoff for Gaines hitting at 24% with the move. Double drops in class for another 17% angle. Career high Bris figure came at this track. Bejarano up.

:5: won and paid $3.00 $2.40 $2.20

Presque Isle Race -4 The :4: . I'd love to get 8-1 on this Ferraro runner. Claimed last out by 42% first off the claim trainer. Drops from MSW to Md Claim for another 25% move. Wake-up call today?

:4: off the board

Santa Rosa Race -6 The :10: . 3rd time off the layoff for an 18% trainer move. Slight bounce last out off the huge effort off the bench 2 back. 6-1 is a good offer here.
SCRATCHED

Hoosier Race -4 The :5: . Solid 2nd in her debut on the weeds last out. Switches to the main track today for 17% turf-to-dirt trainer. Workout Jun 08 signals this one will have no problem with the switch.

:5: ran 3rd and paid $2.80

Penn Race -5 The :3: . 5-2 morning line shot looks the part in her for Capuano. Ships in from Del for 18% shipping trainer. Drops in class for another 20% move. And trainer does well at 23% when racing after losing as the favorite.

:3: won and paid $6.20 $3.00 $2.20

Hoosier Race -7 The :1: . Taking a bit of a stab with this 10-1 shot. Last 2 have been ok on the turf course at IND. Gets back to the main track today, site of his biggest Bris figure race. Drops back in with friends today after the stakes flop last out. Some things to like.

:1: Off the board.

2 races to go.