Evaluating the Belmont Stakes

[classhandicapper]

Anyone still think the Belmont Stakes was a very weak race and Union Rags was the most overrated horse around?

10 horses have run out of the race so far.

1. Paynter (2nd) won the Haskell easily.

2. Street Life (4th) won a pretty solid edition of the Curlin

3. Five Sixteen (5th) was 2nd to Street Life in the Curlin

4. My Adonis (8th) won the Long Branch

Here are the Beyer figures for the Belmont and the horse's next start

Paynter 96 - ? for the Haskell but I'd bet it's better than a 96
Street Life 87 -99
Five Sixteen 86 -96
My Adonis 74 - 85
Ravelo's Boy 70 - 84
Optimizer 59 - 84 (on turf)
Guyana Star Dweej - eased - 76
Dulhallan 83 - ? for Haskell

Atigun 94 - 85
Unstoppable U 83 - eased (probable physical problems, but I haven't heard)

Pretty much everyone ran a better figure by 10 points or more pending the Haskell figure, expect Atigun (on a very sloppy surface), Unstoppable U (physical problem), and Dullahan.

Easy trip or not, I think it's pretty clear the 96 Beyer understated the quality of that field and UR's performance that day.

[cj]

You know my feelings on this. The Beyer chart at those longer distances has some big issues.

[tucker6]

Anyone still think the Belmont Stakes was a very weak race and Union Rags was the most overrated horse around?



YES

[classhandicapper]

YES

We are all entitled to our opinion, but the evidence suggests the race was a legitimate spring Grade 1 race for 3YOs and that the Beyer and other speed figures underrated the race and swayed opinion.

1. Not many horses want 12F anymore, therefore the time charts that may have worked decades ago may be borderline useless in modern dirt racing.

3. When there is only one two turn race on the card, figures are always mildly suspect.

[classhandicapper]

Paynter got a 108 in the Haskell (in line with his pre Belmont form) vs. a 96 in the Belmont.

Even Dullahan, who didn't do much running got an 86 in the Haskell vs. an 83 in the Belmont.

I think a reasonable assessment is that the Belmont was a 106 (plus/minus a little) quality race and either the figure was off OR most US based dirt horses can't get 12F anymore so the old charts don't equalize ability across distances well anymore.

[Skanoochies]

.....IMO the logical conclusion is a healthy IHA would have tin-canned that field that ran in 2:30. (And not referring to the tin can with tomatoes on it that used to be assigned to Zenyattas races. :lol: )

[Robert Fischer]

Stamina came into play in the Belmont and no one was good enough to maintain that level of brilliance(over the distance).

Paynter ran well in the Belmont and that was at least the 2nd time he has been asked to grow up fast in his short career. (SA Derby 2nd start of career...).

[dnlgfnk]

Three horses finish within 1 3/4 lengths of each other in the Belmont, including 20-1 shot Atigun...
Paynter romps in G1 Haskell by 3 3/4 lengths--8 1/4 lengths back to third horse...
Street Life wins by 1 3/4 lengths, 4 1/4 lengths back to third horse...
Dullahan finished similarly in both grade 1 races...

While the charts may be open to question, there is also evidence that the horses in question improved their figures.

Almost never mentioned is the question of whether a figure that is not being earned by a subject horse (not the horse leading at any stage of the race) has any relevance. On a daily basis, a figure earned by a horse significantly outrun by better horses rarely reproduces that figure in the near future when dropping down and not getting the "help" of superior horses setting off the timer for him.

[nijinski]

Matz bashers didn't want him to win , along with those who were absolutely positive a Dixie Union would not get the distance or even be around for the Classic races .

[tucker6]

Matz bashers didn't want him to win , along with those who were absolutely positive a Dixie Union would not get the distance or even be around for the Classic races .
I'm honestly not certain whether UR got the distance at the Belmont. Somebody has to win the race and he crossed the wire first. Still doesn't mean he's a 12F horse or that Dixie Union can throw classic foals. The 2012 Belmont had a weak group of colts in it, and the results don't tell me much. JMHO.

[letswastemoney]

Union Rags was a G1 quality horse. There is no doubt.

That does not mean we can't say he was overrated.

[cj]

I'm honestly not certain whether UR got the distance at the Belmont. Somebody has to win the race and he crossed the wire first. Still doesn't mean he's a 12F horse or that Dixie Union can throw classic foals. The 2012 Belmont had a weak group of colts in it, and the results don't tell me much. JMHO.

In today's world, in North America, he is a 12f horse. He just won our biggest race at the distance.

[tucker6]

In today's world, in North America, he is a 12f horse. He just won our biggest race at the distance.
I sense elements of sarcasm and resignation in your post. It's a shame that the breeding shed is so powerful these days that even 3 year olds are being retired before the TC series is over.

[cj]

I sense elements of sarcasm and resignation in your post. It's a shame that the breeding shed is so powerful these days that even 3 year olds are being retired before the TC series is over.

Resignation I guess. I'm just saying we can keep saying these aren't 12f horses, but unless Secretariat or Affirmed or even Kelso is coming back, they are 12f horses today.

[tucker6]

Resignation I guess. I'm just saying we can keep saying these aren't 12f horses, but unless Secretariat or Affirmed or even Kelso is coming back, they are 12f horses today.
It's breeding, but it's also training. Give Secretariat to a modern trainer, and he'd be jogging the week prior to the Belmont rather than his usual 3F blow outs, and be rated back behind Sham until the stretch drive when they would go astride one another and come home in 2:28 flat. That is if Secretariat would even enter the race. Having won the KD and Preakness, he'd likely have been retired and covering the ladies by Belmont post time. I jest only a little.

I share your resignation, but feel it's the training and owners more than the horses as to why we are where we are.

[nijinski]

And there is more to it .
Turner claims he listened to advice from Sidney Watters to put Slew on the shelf after the Champagne. Slew was lightly raced at that point but he must have had a reason for it .
For whatever reasons Sec , Slew and Afirmed all had been turned out for between three and up to four months before the TC campaign .
I think they bypassed Florida and stayed up North .
May mean nothing , but they all had similar layoffs.

From The Last Horseman , note the comments regarding the 2 year olds in training sales preps and the addition of large barns as well in the 80's...

* * *

Turner calls the emergence of 2-year-olds in training sales in the early 1980s "the worst thing that has happened to the breed since time began." Originated in 1952 at Hialeah Park near Miami, 2-year-olds in training sales lacked the cachet of yearling auctions until the early 1980s, when foreign buyers began making regular forays into Kentucky for the yearling sales. As yearling prices skyrocketed, the 2-year-old sales became a viable alternative. I'll Have Another was purchased for $35,000 at the 2011 Ocala Breeders' Sales Company's 2-year-olds in training sale by his owner, J. Paul Reddam.
"The only thing that's important [to the sellers] is getting a fast eighth-of-a-mile out of the horse before the sale," Turner said. "That horse is breezing faster than it would ever run or be worked … if any good horseman trained him. When you send them out that fast you're causing cartilage damage you can't see at the time. Six months, a year later, the [bone] chip you come up with? It started right there."
The 1980s also gave rise to a new phenomenon: the mega-trainers, those who oversee 100 or more horses, many at different facilities. "Tracks used to never let you have more than 35 horses," Turner said. "Then they started letting D. Wayne Lukas and others have more, thinking it would bring more quality horses in. That has certainly neutralized a very large contingent of our good horses. When you have that many good horses, the number you can really keep track of and campaign you can count on both hands." .......

[tucker6]

Nijinski,

I believe Sec went to winter in Hialeah if I recall. Otherwise, great post. it is training and money preventing many horses from attaining their potential. I just find it impossible to believe from my genetics courses that any species can change as fast as it appears the TB horse has changed. In reality, the breed hasn't changed nearly that much. Outside influences have changed that much though.

[nijinski]

Nijinski,

I believe Sec went to winter in Hialeah if I recall. Otherwise, great post. it is training and money preventing many horses from attaining their potential. I just find it impossible to believe from my genetics courses that any species can change as fast as it appears the TB horse has changed. In reality, the breed hasn't changed nearly that much. Outside influences have changed that much though.

You prompted me to revisit Equibase . Slew actually took his bid for the crown to Hialeah and Secretariat stayed between NY , NJ and Md .

They all did have a substanstial break though between two and three . Affirmed's , much deserved , lol.

I thought Biily had some powerful points in that piece also. No doubt , money
is a huge factor here .

[tucker6]

You prompted me to revisit Equibase . Slew actually took his bid for the crown to Hialeah and Secretariat stayed between NY , NJ and Md .

They all did have a substanstial break though between two and three . Affirmed's , much deserved , lol.

I thought Biily had some powerful points in that piece also. No doubt , money
is a huge factor here .
You are correct. I checked as well, and Sec was at Hialeah between 1st and 2nd years.

[burnsy]

union rags may have been just getting better......then he got hurt. but the reason i thought he was over rated was all the hype. the facts were he lost 3 races at short odds. the breeders cup was an ok race that he probably should of won. the florida derby was a dreadful race....look at the two horses that beat him that day. the derby i can give him a pass on because sometimes you get into trouble and you are done in 3 strides. people don't like admitting it, but thats how that bumper car derby goes every year. that being said, the hype was bigger than the horse ran until he hit the belmont. he ran a good belmont and won ....but hes no secretariat or even rags to riches. he may have turned a corner in that race....but we will never know that now. paynter and union rags did not appear to be as good as bode or i'll have another. if you look at the races after the TC, i think i'll have another has beaten about 12 horses that have won since...it may be more by now but most of these were stakes races. this being said, i'll have another was under rated and union rags was over rated...in the press, on the blogs and in the actual betting. the two careers are not even close IMO. paynter is a totally different entity. it took time to get this horse going and then he went right to the big races. its sort of hard to gauge the belmont because paynter is the type of 3YO that could of took a huge step forward between the belmont and the haskell. he may even be bafferts best 3 YO but bode matured faster. but anyone that thinks union rags showed to be the best 3 YO this year....well , i think they are out of their mind. he may not even be in the top three IMO. all these horses people are talking about now, i'll have another had easily beaten them. so yes, the belmont was probably a weaker field than the preakness or the derby, at that time. but i think this horse paynter could turn out to be really, really good if he stays healthy ....which is a big "IF" this year.

[classhandicapper]

Stamina came into play in the Belmont and no one was good enough to maintain that level of brilliance(over the distance).




I agree.

Hence the issue with judging horses strictly based on the time vs. the historical norms for the distance.

If you threw the best classic distance horses in a 5F sprint they probably wouldn't earn a fast number, but one of them would win and still be a very good horse.