Excusing Pacelines

[Big Bill]

In searching for a paceline to use for rating I will excuse the last race if it was run on any surface other than Fast. Does anyone feel that Wet Fast is close enough to Fast to be used for a paceline or would you excuse the Wet Fast?

Big Bill

[JohnGalt1]

I don't like exacting and specific rules, but for some general guidelines, and ones I use read Michael Pizzola's book "Handicapping Magic."

What I do is always use the last paceline--unless I shouldn't.

If the last race is of the same class and general conditions, use it.

If the last line is one or two levels higher in class or on an off track, or extremely high or low variant, or significant trouble, or any other legitimate reason..........

Then use the second back, unless (see above.)

If a horse is off a lay off, I use a paceline from a race after a layoff, unless I shouldn't :)

Also I don't use dirt races for a race on the turf or turf lines for a dirt race.

To answer your question, I would use a wet/fast line if that is the only reason not to. If the WF line is 1:10 and the line below it is 1:10.1 I would be more likely to trust it.

If all the lines below were 1:12, the 1:10 is the fastest the horse has run and would consider it but only in context.

[Big Bill]

JohnGalt1

Thanks for your reply. I too have "rules" made from Mike's Handicapping Magic suggestions. And others from Scott's books. I use rules from Scott in determining form in selecting contenders, and rules from Pizzola in determining excuses.

However, I never go back past the 45 day layoff line, and I never go back beyond a horse's last two races. I've always excused the last race if run on a WF track and evaluated the next-to-last race for possible paceline selection.

I've missed some winners by not taking a WF line in a horse's last race and have started wondering whether WF conditions are close enough to Fast to use the WF race for a paceline to rate in my handicapping. Just wondered what others thought about this.

Big Bill