Itamaraca
07-21-2012, 09:49 PM
I think this is a very nice horse. But I also think he's a good bet against tomorrow. He got shutoff in the stretch in the Hill Prince; but he'd also had a perfect trip to that point. In fact, he sat the best trip in the race - in terms of setup and ground covered. Others that had good trips were Margano and, in a lesser sense, Our Entourage.
I believe that the winner of the Duluth will come out of the Hill Prince. The candidates are (in no particular order):
:1:, Film Shot: broke on top, inside, then conceded the lead to Spring to the Sky. But Prado didn't sit inside and stalk/draft. He took him outside of SttS and tried to run at that one mid-backstretch. (In the process, he came out into Howe's Great a bit.) SttS ran away from him at that point and FS chased and finished very gamely. Now, FS has the rail tomorrow. He's probably not going to outrun SttS early; unless Edgar guns him and they completely collapse the race. The question, however, is whether Edgar will keep him inside and allow him to get a perfect stalking trip or take him outside again, putting him in a much more difficult spot. If he sits inside, and lets SttS do all the work (maybe Lockout or Heavy Breathing will run with that one) he has a good chance to win the race. This horse could win with a good ride but I doubt Edgar finds the nuts to pull it off. He'll probably be < 10:1, which is not enough value given the likelihood of Prado doing the right things.
:7:, Spring to the Sky: cut the early fractions in the Hill Prince and had to deal with FS running at him on the backstretch. He ran away from that one at that point but couldn't hold on as FS and then HG wore him down in the stretch. This was his 1st time turfing and 1st time beyond 6F. He has every reason to improve and he should be able to control the pace (unless the 8 or 4 gun). I'm not a fan of Luzzi's; he's always in a hurry. But if he keeps his head and doesn't rush this horse early, he could win. Donovan has him @ 20:1. Anything close to this and I'll bet him to win.
:2:, Howe Great: had to deal with Edgar's BS, getting carried out a bit early backstretch, went with cover for a bit, then was 3 wide till they entered. Garcia decided to take him outside of FS, rather than drafting behind that one on the turn. Summer Front and Our Entourage drafted behind horses the entire turn. He was thus doing a lot of extra work. Much more than Summer Front. He then went after the top two early stretch and when he finally started to pull way, SF had gotten off the inside and ran him down. I suspect that this horse is every bit as good as SF with an even trip. Garcia really needs to think like Dominguez and sit behind horses with this one, not exposing him to extra work or too early. This is a horse that should get every bit as perfect a trip as Summer Front tomorrow. He'll be 2nd choice and not worth a win bet. He a strong on top use in exotics, however.
I believe that the winner of the Duluth will come out of the Hill Prince. The candidates are (in no particular order):
:1:, Film Shot: broke on top, inside, then conceded the lead to Spring to the Sky. But Prado didn't sit inside and stalk/draft. He took him outside of SttS and tried to run at that one mid-backstretch. (In the process, he came out into Howe's Great a bit.) SttS ran away from him at that point and FS chased and finished very gamely. Now, FS has the rail tomorrow. He's probably not going to outrun SttS early; unless Edgar guns him and they completely collapse the race. The question, however, is whether Edgar will keep him inside and allow him to get a perfect stalking trip or take him outside again, putting him in a much more difficult spot. If he sits inside, and lets SttS do all the work (maybe Lockout or Heavy Breathing will run with that one) he has a good chance to win the race. This horse could win with a good ride but I doubt Edgar finds the nuts to pull it off. He'll probably be < 10:1, which is not enough value given the likelihood of Prado doing the right things.
:7:, Spring to the Sky: cut the early fractions in the Hill Prince and had to deal with FS running at him on the backstretch. He ran away from that one at that point but couldn't hold on as FS and then HG wore him down in the stretch. This was his 1st time turfing and 1st time beyond 6F. He has every reason to improve and he should be able to control the pace (unless the 8 or 4 gun). I'm not a fan of Luzzi's; he's always in a hurry. But if he keeps his head and doesn't rush this horse early, he could win. Donovan has him @ 20:1. Anything close to this and I'll bet him to win.
:2:, Howe Great: had to deal with Edgar's BS, getting carried out a bit early backstretch, went with cover for a bit, then was 3 wide till they entered. Garcia decided to take him outside of FS, rather than drafting behind that one on the turn. Summer Front and Our Entourage drafted behind horses the entire turn. He was thus doing a lot of extra work. Much more than Summer Front. He then went after the top two early stretch and when he finally started to pull way, SF had gotten off the inside and ran him down. I suspect that this horse is every bit as good as SF with an even trip. Garcia really needs to think like Dominguez and sit behind horses with this one, not exposing him to extra work or too early. This is a horse that should get every bit as perfect a trip as Summer Front tomorrow. He'll be 2nd choice and not worth a win bet. He a strong on top use in exotics, however.