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View Full Version : Summer Front --DULUTH S - going to try to beat him


Itamaraca
07-21-2012, 09:49 PM
I think this is a very nice horse. But I also think he's a good bet against tomorrow. He got shutoff in the stretch in the Hill Prince; but he'd also had a perfect trip to that point. In fact, he sat the best trip in the race - in terms of setup and ground covered. Others that had good trips were Margano and, in a lesser sense, Our Entourage.

I believe that the winner of the Duluth will come out of the Hill Prince. The candidates are (in no particular order):

:1:, Film Shot: broke on top, inside, then conceded the lead to Spring to the Sky. But Prado didn't sit inside and stalk/draft. He took him outside of SttS and tried to run at that one mid-backstretch. (In the process, he came out into Howe's Great a bit.) SttS ran away from him at that point and FS chased and finished very gamely. Now, FS has the rail tomorrow. He's probably not going to outrun SttS early; unless Edgar guns him and they completely collapse the race. The question, however, is whether Edgar will keep him inside and allow him to get a perfect stalking trip or take him outside again, putting him in a much more difficult spot. If he sits inside, and lets SttS do all the work (maybe Lockout or Heavy Breathing will run with that one) he has a good chance to win the race. This horse could win with a good ride but I doubt Edgar finds the nuts to pull it off. He'll probably be < 10:1, which is not enough value given the likelihood of Prado doing the right things.


:7:, Spring to the Sky: cut the early fractions in the Hill Prince and had to deal with FS running at him on the backstretch. He ran away from that one at that point but couldn't hold on as FS and then HG wore him down in the stretch. This was his 1st time turfing and 1st time beyond 6F. He has every reason to improve and he should be able to control the pace (unless the 8 or 4 gun). I'm not a fan of Luzzi's; he's always in a hurry. But if he keeps his head and doesn't rush this horse early, he could win. Donovan has him @ 20:1. Anything close to this and I'll bet him to win.

:2:, Howe Great: had to deal with Edgar's BS, getting carried out a bit early backstretch, went with cover for a bit, then was 3 wide till they entered. Garcia decided to take him outside of FS, rather than drafting behind that one on the turn. Summer Front and Our Entourage drafted behind horses the entire turn. He was thus doing a lot of extra work. Much more than Summer Front. He then went after the top two early stretch and when he finally started to pull way, SF had gotten off the inside and ran him down. I suspect that this horse is every bit as good as SF with an even trip. Garcia really needs to think like Dominguez and sit behind horses with this one, not exposing him to extra work or too early. This is a horse that should get every bit as perfect a trip as Summer Front tomorrow. He'll be 2nd choice and not worth a win bet. He a strong on top use in exotics, however.

NTamm1215
07-21-2012, 11:38 PM
I think this is a very nice horse. But I also think he's a good bet against tomorrow. He got shutoff in the stretch in the Hill Prince; but he'd also had a perfect trip to that point. In fact, he sat the best trip in the race - in terms of setup and ground covered. Others that had good trips were Margano and, in a lesser sense, Our Entourage.

I believe that the winner of the Duluth will come out of the Hill Prince. The candidates are (in no particular order):

:1:, Film Shot: broke on top, inside, then conceded the lead to Spring to the Sky. But Prado didn't sit inside and stalk/draft. He took him outside of SttS and tried to run at that one mid-backstretch. (In the process, he came out into Howe's Great a bit.) SttS ran away from him at that point and FS chased and finished very gamely. Now, FS has the rail tomorrow. He's probably not going to outrun SttS early; unless Edgar guns him and they completely collapse the race. The question, however, is whether Edgar will keep him inside and allow him to get a perfect stalking trip or take him outside again, putting him in a much more difficult spot. If he sits inside, and lets SttS do all the work (maybe Lockout or Heavy Breathing will run with that one) he has a good chance to win the race. This horse could win with a good ride but I doubt Edgar finds the nuts to pull it off. He'll probably be < 10:1, which is not enough value given the likelihood of Prado doing the right things.


:7:, Spring to the Sky: cut the early fractions in the Hill Prince and had to deal with FS running at him on the backstretch. He ran away from that one at that point but couldn't hold on as FS and then HG wore him down in the stretch. This was his 1st time turfing and 1st time beyond 6F. He has every reason to improve and he should be able to control the pace (unless the 8 or 4 gun). I'm not a fan of Luzzi's; he's always in a hurry. But if he keeps his head and doesn't rush this horse early, he could win. Donovan has him @ 20:1. Anything close to this and I'll bet him to win.

:2:, Howe Great: had to deal with Edgar's BS, getting carried out a bit early backstretch, went with cover for a bit, then was 3 wide till they entered. Garcia decided to take him outside of FS, rather than drafting behind that one on the turn. Summer Front and Our Entourage drafted behind horses the entire turn. He was thus doing a lot of extra work. Much more than Summer Front. He then went after the top two early stretch and when he finally started to pull way, SF had gotten off the inside and ran him down. I suspect that this horse is every bit as good as SF with an even trip. Garcia really needs to think like Dominguez and sit behind horses with this one, not exposing him to extra work or too early. This is a horse that should get every bit as perfect a trip as Summer Front tomorrow. He'll be 2nd choice and not worth a win bet. He a strong on top use in exotics, however.

Howe Great is going to scratch since he ran today at Monmouth.

I hear you with regards to trying to beat Summer Front, but the options seem very unappealing. Film Shot seems like a need the lead type and would benefit if Spring to the Sky is scratched to run in a N1X on Monday.

menifee
07-22-2012, 01:24 AM
Howe Great is one of the better 3yr turf horses. I don't understand why they raced him in Jersey in that crappy stakes. They could have gone to Arlington last week, Virginia this week or the Spa on Sunday. Instead they run in a race with a 60k purse and a bunch of mules.

PhantomOnTour
07-22-2012, 02:59 AM
If there's an upsetter it's gonna be #3 Star Channel. He and Summer Front are the only Stks winners in the field (although his was a state bred Stk at Tam).
His last race was a nice effort...rough start and a nice 4w run just when the pace began to heat up (it was very slow thru 6f and they really flew home) and he gained 3 lengths. He basically ran with the pace after that thru a 34.4 final 3f.
I think the pace will be right as one of the other two Pletcher runners may go for it as a result of their outside post.
Now for the bad news...i absolutely loathe all Pletcher runners working at Mth and shipping to Bel or Sar. They never seem to perform.
Still, he can really bring it in the lane and should get his setup...he also ran in the Hill Prince ;)

Rise Over Run
07-22-2012, 10:44 AM
Howe Great is one of the better 3yr turf horses. I don't understand why they raced him in Jersey in that crappy stakes. They could have gone to Arlington last week, Virginia this week or the Spa on Sunday. Instead they run in a race with a 60k purse and a bunch of mules.

Wow, I can't believe what's happened to the Jersey Derby. Now a $60k Listed Stakes.

Robert Fischer
07-22-2012, 12:00 PM
Maybe Pletcher could have entered some more horses in here :rolleyes:

Itamaraca
07-22-2012, 01:49 PM
Interesting ride by Castellano. Not so much that he set the pace but what he was doing through the stretch. Needless to say, Luzzi was unable/unprepared :confused: to deal with it.

Striker
07-22-2012, 02:18 PM
Howe Great is one of the better 3yr turf horses. I don't understand why they raced him in Jersey in that crappy stakes. They could have gone to Arlington last week, Virginia this week or the Spa on Sunday. Instead they run in a race with a 60k purse and a bunch of mules.
I would think that they respect Silver Max. Romans had most people thinking he was going to run at Arlington and then he went to Virginia. I think Howe Great would have beaten Cozzetti had he run at Arlington but Romans plan of entering Silver Max to scare others away worked.

PhantomOnTour
07-22-2012, 02:20 PM
Interesting ride by Castellano. Not so much that he set the pace but what he was doing through the stretch. Needless to say, Luzzi was unable/unprepared :confused: to deal with it.
Yaeh...the 3 was game but the tactics puzzled me too.
Thought he should have waited

horses4courses
07-22-2012, 04:57 PM
Summer Front ran the final quarter in 22 and 2 today.
This fella is a talented colt....

RXB
07-22-2012, 05:52 PM
He ran a similar finishing fraction as a 2YO, no less.

Now 5/5 on the grass including 4/4 in mile stakes. Fully deserved to be miniscule odds.