ARL Winner Suggestions

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After playing ARL yesterday, I am finding I like playing it again.
Using some methods developed for specific races here are my picks.
They are suggestions for win, place. show and pick 3 wagers. The methods have been tuned using only historical data for the months of June, July, Aug and goes back 30 races(small but looking for historical). The tuning methods is for either win and place or ROI based on 10 win on first selection.
Hopefully we get some winners.
Good cappin
Custom Method: FIXED -
ARLINGTON PARK 07-15-2012 RACE 1 OF 9 - TRACK RATING: 85
MY TIP SHEET PREDICTIONS (USING ):
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
7 KITTENS KITTEN 2.5 THORNTON T. REAVIS M. L.
6 IZZAEVEN 6.0 TORRES F. C. RAINWATER B.
4 DONTBETELLINME 2.0 ALBARADO R. ICE T. A.
Method Success - PICK 1 WINS OR PLACES Result 63.33 PCT - 0 RACES 07-15-2012
Custom Method: Best -
ARLINGTON PARK 07-15-2012 RACE 2 OF 9 - TRACK RATING: 85
MY TIP SHEET PREDICTIONS (USING ):
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
8 CAVES VALLEY 10.0 GILES F. SMITH JR. J. R.
1 SALUTING STORMYE 8.0 CONTRERAS A. L. HARAN J.
5 GENTLE MOMENT 4.0 DIEGO I. MARTINEZ R.
Method Success - PICK 1 WINS OR PLACES Result 50.00 PCT - 0 RACES 07-15-2012
Custom Method: P1S -
ARLINGTON PARK 07-15-2012 RACE 3 OF 9 - TRACK RATING: 85
MY TIP SHEET PREDICTIONS (USING ):
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
5 TRUTHORFICTION 6.0 ALBARADO R. WERNER R. W.
8 SGT MAURO 12.0 TORRES F. C. HANNA C.
1 AMALFI RUNNER 6.0 FELIX J. E. LYNN J. C.
Method Success - ROI 159.67 PCT WGR-1 $10 - 30 RACES 07-15-2012
Custom Method: PR - Pace Route
ARLINGTON PARK 07-15-2012 RACE 4 OF 9 - TRACK RATING: 85
MY TIP SHEET PREDICTIONS (USING Pace Route):
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
5 BEAMER 4.5 TORRES F. C. NAFZGER C. A.
4 HATTAASH 6.0 MENA M. BETTIS C. L..
Method Success - ROI 117.14 PCT WGR-1 $10 - 7 RACES 07-15-2012
Custom Method: FTS - Frsters
ARLINGTON PARK 07-15-2012 RACE 5 OF 9 - TRACK RATING: 85
MY TIP SHEET PREDICTIONS (USING Frsters):
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
8 PEBBLE HILL 3.0 GRAHAM J. ARNOLD II G. R.
5 RAVER 4.5 MENA M. PROCTOR T. F.
4 WEDDING TRIFECTA 2.5 HOMEISTER JR. R. B PROCTOR T. F.
Method Success - ROI 118.67 PCT WGR-1 $10 - 30 RACES 07-15-2012
Custom Method: FIXED -
ARLINGTON PARK 07-15-2012 RACE 6 OF 9 - TRACK RATING: 85
MY TIP SHEET PREDICTIONS (USING ):
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
5 SAY SONNY 6.0 HOMEISTER JR. R. B JANKS C. K.
3 VIKING 10.0 MENA M. CRISTEL M. J.
Method Success - ROI 314.33 PCT WGR-1 $10 - 30 RACES 07-15-2012
Custom Method: TurfR - Turf Route
ARLINGTON PARK 07-15-2012 RACE 7 OF 9 - TRACK RATING: 85
MY TIP SHEET PREDICTIONS (USING Turf Route):
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
7 ST MOOSE 3.0 GRAHAM J. AMOSS T. M.
4 RAFE 5.0 TORRES F. C. GRANITZ A. J.
6 STRONG HOLD 6.0 SANCHEZ J. SIMS P. A.
Method Success - ROI 107.00 PCT WGR-1 $10 - 30 RACES 07-15-2012

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ARL 1st
Physically 4 and 6 look good in post parade.

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Torres is riding out of his mind right now and the little break off from the post parade for the 6 was a good sign for me. Noticing form is doing better than class right now.

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ARL 2 Paddock
2-Looks fat
4-Looks dull
5- Content
1- Sharp on toes
8-Sharp
3- Sharp
7- Flesh is iffy

Best is :1: :3: :8:

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Love an older horse that does not wear blinkers and looks in form.
Our picks did not come in better than 3rd but looking before the race got 2 horses in the money.

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ARL Race3
All look pretty good.
:3: Looks sharp
:4: Little dull
:5: Head carriage of a stopper
:6: Little heavy
:8: Looks sharp

Best is :3: :8:

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Shot craps after poor prediction of pace.
Race was run like a bunch of route types changing to sprint and that should have been considered.

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Snagged the 4th and got a nice price on Mena.
18 dollar winners are good thing.

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5/2 aint much for the :8: but it was found without any past data with a method I called firsters.
3 of 5 winners with methods
and 4 of 5 with watching paddock. Not bad so far. Lets get the 6th and 7th and I will post the late double.

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Another 20 dollar horse in just 2 picks and filled the super with the other choice.
Love beating favorites.
4 for 6 with picks and 5 for 6 with looking at paddock.

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Could not play the :9: and:3: based on my rules and the :4: and :7: run 3rd and 4th.
Not a bad day though
4 for 7 with 20, 18 and 14 dollar horses in the mix.
Thanks for reading.

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P.S.
The 1st and 6th were picked with fixed data. No running data or modeling was used. Only Weight change, Days since last, Distance last start, Winner last race, Horse in the money, Last odds change from ML to Post time, Wins, and lifetime starts were used. The method was then tuned for WP and ROI against races ran at AP for similar class and same distance during the months of June July and Aug for the years 2007-present.