QUINN'S TURF THEORY

[delayjf]

I've been rereading Quinns "Figure Handicapping" and was intregued that he constructed his turf parallel time charts.

Specifically he increases the value of a 1/5 of a second as the distance increases which is the opposite of what Beyer/Korvitz does with their dirt figures. He reasons that running "faster for longer" should count for more.

In my own turf handicapping I've learned through the school of hard knocks that this is true. But, I'm not convinced that his scale is the best way to evaluate late speed on the turf.

Has anybody adapted his turf theory with any success??

[alysheba88]

The finishers of turf race are usually much more bunched than on dirt races.

[John]

Delayjf,

A real nice guy that was a member on this board . Steve is his name was knid enough to show me his way and I don't think he would mind me shareing.

Steve likes to look at the class of the horse,Winning efforts begin with trainer.Incompetent trainers can make a good turf horse a certified loser. Give a so-so turf horse to a Johnathan Sheppard and you might end up with a champion.Jockeys too.A few excel on every circuit They always manage to save every inch of ground and know when to move their horses at the right time.

I don't think that there are enough turf races to get a true par.most tracks only card a few turfraces daily.

Maybe Steve, will read this and add his opinion

[Tom]

I use that method all the time.
I do not go to the trouble of making all the track-to-track adjustments, though. I made one chart, using "pars" of 24-30- and 36 seconds for the final fraction. I use the incremental splits for each horse in the Fromulator PP options, then just assing rankings from the chart directly to the PPs. no variants-only raw.
I stick to races within a half furlong of today's race as much as possiblem and I rate the last 6 or so races, as Quirin suggests. If I get good ratings 4-5 races back, and the odds are decent, I don't worry too much about recent form or numbers. I use class to break ties, so a 98 in NW1 would be better than a 98 in a MSW, or even a 100 in a MSW. I like to see some gaps in the ratings-within 3-4 points to me is equal.
Been using this method several years now-since the book came out, whenever that was.

[Fastracehorse]

That the longer the race - the easier to carry speed. That is, speed is more dangerous the longer the event is.

He reasoned: 'That especially with the rail at 0', the horse has alot to look at, he is curious about his surroundings and hence, tends to relax better on the lead.'

Alot of people think speed is better at shorter distances. But speedy routers can bottle things up behind themselves, relax, and then jet for home.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

<then just assing rankings from the chart directly to the PPs. no variants-only raw.
I stick to races within a half furlong of today's race as much as possiblem

++++++++++++++++++

:) :cool: :) :cool: :) :cool: :D

fffastt

[Shacopate]

Are you saying that you have (or can make) accurate track variants for turf races?

[headhawg]

delayjf,

I have had good success with his method. I create the charts as per the book using Pars Plus, but one of these days will create my own pars.

Class is an important factor for me so that is always part of the equation, so to echo rocajack I look for at least a competent turf trainer and turf jockey.

Frontrunners win often enough depending on the track, but they still must have enough late pace to fight off the sustainers. I will look at the Energy profile as well, and favor horses that expend less energy early, sometimes using this as my "tiebreaker".

I don't pay attention to variants (notoriously unreliable) except to rule out some aberrant paceline(s).

If this matters, turf racing (routes) is the only area that I'm profitable in. Good luck.

HH

[headhawg]

Originally posted by headhawg
Oops...

Class is an important factor for me so that is always part of the equation, so to echo rocajack I look for at least a competent turf trainer and turf jockey.

Sorry, bad edit. Class is obviously a different factor than trainer/jock. BOTH are important to me.

HH

[delayjf]

In my own handicapping, I had good success on the turf doing something simular to what Quinn does, basically looking at the final fraction of turf routes and determining which horse has the biggest kick. Reviewing Quinns results at DeLmar 93, I've come to the following conclusions about their effectiveness:

- Quinns turf figures are best suited for So Cal tracks due to the lack of wet WX.

- His figures are probably only accurate within a limited range. I'm going to guess but probably within +-1 second of the classified Alw par that he uses. In his own review of Quinns Turf figures Beyer noted that Quinns parallel time (Hollywood) chart assigns the same rating to a horse who runs a super slow 1/4 in around 27 flat to a final 5/16th in 32 2/5. That final 1/16 of a mile would have to be run in blazing 5 2/5 seconds.
Using his classified Alw pars a horse which runs a 1/4 in 25 1/5( a rating of 100) will require 5 4/5 seconds to run and additional 1/16th of a mile in 31 flat ( also a rating of 100)

-Almost all his turf profits are derived from races where he's able to comparing performances at the same distances. If his parallel time chart is unreliable comparing different route distances, then whats the point of having one. In Quinns defense, he does warn about comparing races at different distances.

I'm not saying this Turf figures are worthless, only that they seem to have some flaws.

[Fastracehorse]

<Are you saying that you have (or can make) accurate track variants for turf races?

==============================

No, I'm not saying that. I think the Beyer is good enough.

Thanx,

fffastt

[headhawg]

Originally posted by delayjf
I'm not saying this Turf figures are worthless, only that they seem to have some flaws.

I'm more of an eclectic handicapper, and I don't believe anybody's figures are good enough -- given the amount of factors/errors in calculating them -- to use them as a primary or exclusive method in handicapping.

I just need to be "in the ballpark" with figs -- especially turf figs, and other factors will determine for me if there is a play. Quinn's figs work for me.

Ok, maybe the Mezzanine section of the ballpark...

HH

[Fastracehorse]

<I just need to be "in the ballpark" with figs -- especially turf figs

==================================

That's what good enough means





<I don't believe anybody's figures are good enough

And yet you use Quirin's.




JFTR guys,

Joe Takach believes it is impossible to find a 'valid' variant.




fffastt

[headhawg]

fffastt,

I didn't disagree with you; Beyers are fine if that's what you use. I imagine that some 'cappers use Bris Late Pace figs or some other type.

By using the Quinn method I personally get a better feel for the differences in the figs for the tracks I create the charts for. And the thread started by delayjf asked if anyone had success with Quinn's method, not Beyer figs, and I briefly mentioned my adapted version of it.

HH

[Fastracehorse]

Can you explain what you do??

I'd be interested.

Thanx,

fffastt

[John]

Headhawg

I would be intersted too. I don't have Quinn.s numbers. Are they in his book or it it your version of Quinn's. I have tried raceing form ratings with no success.

I love to watch Turf races but, never seem to pick the winner.

Any help to ffast, and I, is appreciated.

John

[Fastracehorse]

Hey,

I'm not that bad on turf :) I didn't think you were either.

I just wanted to see how different or close his methods are to mine.

It's kind of like Brisnet PP's - I use DRF's - one day when I have time I'll check out the difference.

Good Luck.

fffastt

[John]

That is exactly my thoughts '"I don't have Quinn's numbers, if it is that better. or Headhawg way.

I will beg you to send me a copy.....Thanks Buddy

[headhawg]

fffastt and rocajack,

Let me put something together and send you an email, rather than creating a longish post. That is unless others are interested.

BTW, there's no magic formula here. I just have confidence in what the figs provided for me handicapping-wise. (Of course, nothing is working for me currently as I'm in a slump colder than the weather in the Northeast.)

And as so.cal.fan has mentioned in a new thread here about the fear of betting, my approach is probably all about confidence as it has worked in the past, and I'm counting on it working in the future.

In addition, I'm always looking for new ideas and ways to improve. That's why I hang out here.

Remember, you might be on the right track, but if you stand still you'll still get hit by the train.

HH

[Tom]

Stop in the War Room Saturday and we can do some rces live using our various versions of Quinn's turf figs. All I need is a fromulator file and my chart and I can list my figs in real time and what races I used to get them. Tam, GP, SA FG should all have turf races on tap.

[John]

Good idea Tom, However I will be out of house on Saturday. Good luck......

John

[headhawg]

Tom,

I would love to, but have to work all day. I didn't even tempt myself with the AQU Pick 6.

Now, if they were all on the turf....

HH

[classhandicapper]

I'm giving this a bump to see if anyone still uses these ratings or has any insights they want to share.

[cj]

I would say they are a good starting point, but too simplistic as written to be very effective.

[headhawg]

What cj wrote. I had very good success with Quinn's method many moons ago. That plus Dan Serra's turf ratings made me wish every race was a turf race. But now everyone has access to pedigree info, and players realize that handicapping turf is different from dirt. I still love turf races but the value is much more difficult to find now.

[BarchCapper]

As a long time fan of Quinn's work, this thread popping up got me wondering whether he was still alive and well, and whether or not he is still involved in the sport in any way.

My one weekend of personal interaction with James Quinn came during a Breeders' Cup seminar at a hotel near Belmont and that miserably wet and cold Breeders' Cup in 1995. He was every bit as enjoyable in person as he has been to read and re-read.

[thaskalos]

Whenever I bet the late speed on the turf...the race always goes wire-to-wire.

[cj]

Whenever I bet the late speed on the turf...the race always goes wire-to-wire.

But I bet the speed horses finish fast. ;)

[JohnGalt1]

I don't use turf race variants unless the course was good or yielding.

[classhandicapper]

I'm trying to decide whether to calculate these ratings and store them in my database so I can test them. I don't have a high quality "late rating" in my database. The best available that I've seen are CJ's in TimeformUS, but I don't have the ability to import them to do some research.

[classhandicapper]

As a long time fan of Quinn's work, this thread popping up got me wondering whether he was still alive and well, and whether or not he is still involved in the sport in any way.



I wonder that also. For awhile he was making public spot play selections on CA races, but I haven't seen anything in a long while.

[GaryG]

Strong closers win a lot of races on the turf, but his charts did nothing for me. I like strong closers that are not outclassed and have winning turf connections.