Teach
07-14-2012, 12:04 PM
Belmont Park Picks: Sat., July 14:
Race One:
:5: Regal Strike
looks like “The Horse”. In his last, in the mud down in Philadelphia, he went off as the prohibitive, odds-on, one-to-two "fave". Well, he got shut off on the rail as the four-horse field headed into the far turn. The jock then took him to the outside, but, by then, it was too late; he was eased up in deep stretch. Any kind of trip should be enough to lead this Wavering Monarch-bred 4-year-old colt to the winner’s circle. Junior Alvarado rides for Rick Dutrow.
:7: Take Down Two
won his last in the slop (a favored surface) in this company. The Linda Rice-trainee is ridden by Cornelio Velasquez. This veteran 7-year-old gelding should benefit from his outside post. He’s hit the tote in his last three; he’s 10 for 20 in the money at the distance.
:2: Metaurus
The horse with the Punic War-battle name won his last and hit the tote in all three of his recent dirt tries. He’s hit the tote in 11 of his 15 six-furlong lifetime efforts. Jose Ortiz in the irons for trainer Gary Gullo.
#3 Overextended
cuts back to a sprint after finishing third and second in two most recent routes. The horse has hit the board in fourteen of 23 lifetime tries at the distance. A couple solid, recent morning works. David Cohen in the stirrups for trainer David Jacobson.
Race Two:
:8: Sargent Major Girl
is a Forest Wildcat-bred filly; her dam had six winners from seven starters. She might well benefit from the outside post, and if she has an early turn of foot, she could find herself on or near the lead. Sharp three-furlong work at Laurel. David Cohen for John Salzman, Jr. (he does well with maiden specials).
:5: John’s Mariah
did little in her initial start on the lawn. Now, this Storm Cat- (good first-time-starter pedigree) bred filly switches to the main track. She also adds “shades”. She did have a recent sharp three-furlong work in which she "drilled" the three panels in :36, breezing. The improving Wilmer Garcia rides for Carlos Martin.
:1: Wildcat’s Element
went off as the chalk in his last, a five-furlong sprint on a muddy track in mid-June. In looking at the replay, this recently-claimed Forest Wildcat-bred filly was bumped not once, but twice, in an effort to fight her way through a tight seam. The filly subsequently moved into contention near the far turn but was no match for the winner. Eddie Castro rides for trainer Gary Contessa.
#3 Riptherubberoff
is a Johannesburg- (good first-time-starter pedigree) bred filly who, as the DRF cites, has the breeding that is suited to today’s sprint distance. Trainer Rudy Rodriguez does a good job with first-timers. Cornelio Velasquez is in the irons.
Race Three:
:6: Dream Pegasus
has faced much better. Has only raced once on the lawn - Grade 3 Appalachian; she finished up the track but was in contention into the far turn. Shortens up a furlong from that race. Junior Alvarado for trainer Ken McPeek.
:11: Lawless Miss
gets the service of the high percentage jock, Jose Lezcano. Won her last against slightly weaker. Should benefit from outside starting post. One for two on the turf; five for nine in the money, lifetime.
:10: Manda Bay
is four hit-the-totes in six lifetime tries on the grass. She’s one for one at the 7 furlong distance. Shortens up a furlong off her last race. Rosie Napravnik for trainer Mike Maker.
#4 Debonair Dancer
has never raced on the grass but does have turf pedigree, e.g., A.P. Indy. Her dam, Dance of Sunshine, did produce one turf winner. Sharp five furlong work about a week ago. Eddie Castro in the irons for trainer Jim Toner.
Race Four:
:6: Shintoh ships in from “The Emerald Isle”. The 5-year-old Storm Cat-bred ridgling performed ably in turf sprints, one win in two tries. Yet, the horse has been off for well over a year when she was last seen racing in County Cork. The horse does get first-time lasix and the services of both jockey Cornelio Velasquez and trainer H. Allen Jerkens.
:3: Madman Diaries.
The In Excess-bred gelding has hit the tote in three of four turf tries. The horse has three wins and five seconds in 13 tries, lifetime. Wesley Ward trains (rider not available).
:5: Non Stop
might be the surprise factor here. The Valid Appeal-bred gelding switches to a high-percentage jock in the person of Jose Lezcano. In his last race, the four-year-old gelding finished fourth on the lawn at Monmouth, yet only a length off the winner in a five and one-half furlong sprint. The horse may benefit from the added half-furlong. Alan Goldberg trains.
Race Five:
:5: The Snickers Kid
won his last on the turf at six furlongs, his only lifetime win. The Citidancer-bred colt has hit the tote in all seven of his lifetime starts. I must profess my gnawing concerns, first that the colt is stepping up in company and, second, his connections have switched to a skilled, yet nonetheless low percentage jockey. Yet, despite these concerns, the horse still might prevail. Trainer Rudy Rodriguez is having an outstanding meet.
:7: Anaphylaxis
was second at a mile on the turf in his last against slightly weaker company. Prior to that he broke his maiden at this seven-furlong distance. Eddie Castro rides this Storm Cat-bred gelding for trainer Pablo Hizo.
:4: Kharafa
is a lightly raced three-year old who won at six furlongs on the lawn last September; that despite being bumped at the start. The Mr, Prospector-bred colt was fifth in his last, a six-furlong sprint on the lawn about a month ago at Belmont. The horse should indeed appreciate the added furlong. Joe Bravo rides for trainer Timothy Hills.
Race Six:
I don’t usually pick a Maylan Studart-ridden horse (I think the last time she won was aboard D’Sauvage as she scooted up the rail), but this is one of those exceptions. Yes, I’m picking :10: Senior Statesman. This is my long-shot try. A gambler’s throw. The Dixieland Band-bred gelding has faced maiden special weights competition in his last two. The gelding’s taking a significant class drop. True, the horse had little to show for his recent efforts; however, in his last on the turf, he came six-wide and although he finished well back, the winning time was quite speedy. Also, there the turf-to-dirt angle. I think it’s worth a look.
:7: Life Of The City was bumped in his last in this company. That appeared to compromise any chance this Carson City-bred gelding had of winning; he finished third. Yet there was improvement over his past efforts. If this upward trend continues, this horse might just be a factor. David Cohen rides for trainer Mike Stidham.
:8: Titus Catenius finished third in his last against slightly weaker. He does however get a significant jockey change to Cornelio Velasquez. The horse has hit the tote in three of six lifetime tries. Bruce Levine trains the Storm Cat-bred gelding.
#4 Second And One has failed in all ten tries at breaking his maiden. In his last, a little over a month ago, he was fourth in this company. Yet prior to thaty he competed in maiden special weights company. The Stormy Atlantic-bred horse has a recent sharp four-furlong work, Eddie Castro rides for trainer George Weaver.
Race Seven:
:8: Monastir gets my tepid nod in this turf route race. The horse has only won twice in 35 lifetime starts (frankly, not too reassuring); yet he narrowly missed in this company at the same distance in his last. Cornelio Velasquez retains the rides for trainer Jason Servis.
:10: Launch N Relaunch is a long-shot try who finished fifth in this company about a month ago. The horse has hit the tote in seven of 19 lifetime starts. Call it a hunch; call it an educated guess in this relatively weak field, but I believe this horse has a chance of hitting the tote. Junior Alvarado rides for trainer Gary Gullo.
:5: Love Shack (with emphasis on the phonetic “Luuhv”; thank you, Tom Durkin) has a shot of surprising. Ridden by - “If I were Abel I’d be ringing!” -Lezcano and trained by Linda Rice, this Holy Bull-bred mare has a win and a second in three tries at the distance; she’s hit the tote in three of six lifetime starts on the lawn. Third start back off a layoff angle,
#4 Sweat Shop is another possible long-shot try. The six-year old Gone West/Chilean-bred gelding hasn’t exactly been setting the world on fire. His last race was admittedly abysmal. However, he has hit the tote in seven of 12 lifetime starts, He’s had three seconds in six lifetime tries at the distance, Wilmer Garcia rides for trainer Bruce Levine,
Race Eight:
In the ManOWar (One of the few horses ever mentioned in a U.S. History text book), I like :5: Treasure Beach. He is ridden by the 32-year old Jamie Spencer who ships "across the Pond" from the UK for this historic race. Ths 4-year old Sadler’s Wells-bred horse has logged more frequent-flyer miles than a seasoned traveler. His "ports of call" stops include Hong Kong, United Arab Emirates, France, Britain, and Ireland. The horse has been off for more than two months and did not race well in is most recent start. Yet he is the class if the race and if he fires, as expected, he most certainly is capable of winning. Aidan O’Brien trains.
:3: Point Of Entry has won two in a row; he’s hit the tote in five of six tries on the lawn. Although he hasn’t raced in over two months, he had a solid recent four-furlong “bullet” work. The most capable Jose Lezcano rides for trainer “Shug” McGaughey.
:4: Newsdad has a second and third in two tries at the distance. He’s seven of 11 lifetime on the turf. This past March he won the Grade 2 Pan American at Gulfstreram Park. The horse had a solid work on the turf about a week ago as a tune up for today’s race. Junior Alvarado rides for trainer Bill Mott.
#7 Hudson Steele was leading most of the way in the Grade 1 Manhattan a little over a month ago only to finish fourth. Prior to that this Johannesburg-bred gelding won two straight including The Dixie at Pimlico. He’s hit the board in seven of eight lifetime tries on the lawn. Joe Bravo rides for trainer Todd Pletcher.
Race Nine:
:6: Leroidesioux gets my nod in this Inner Turf Course claimer. He's finished second in his last three in slightly better claiming company. He's five for six in the money, lifetime. David Cohen rides for trainer Chatterpaul Naipaul.
:4: Fear Nothing is another horse who stands a chance of getting all the enchiladas in this turf sprint. He won his last at seven furlongs in slightly better company. Eddie Castro rides for Angel Penna, Jr.
:8: Brown Indian is a distinct threat and should not be ignored. This Cherokee Run-bred colt has faced much better. Jose Espinoza rides for trainer George Weaver.
#10 Ventura Bar is shortening up to a sprint. That turn back may be all this horse needs to be "a contendah". He's had a second in one try on the lawn. Wilmer Garcia rides for trainer Neal Terricciano.
Race Ten:
:12: Honest Johnny is a first-timer out of the Linda Rice barn. The three-year-old gelding has a good turf pedigree. He also has a solid recent "bullet" turf work. Cornelio Velasquez rides.
:10: Karakorum Holiday is another horse who might be a factor here. He's adding lasix; he's going a little longer; and it's his third start back off a layoff. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides for Jeff Odintz.
:7: Shy Humor has hit the board twice in two turf tries. He was second at this distance in his last. Jose Lezcano is in the irons for trainer Mark Hennig
#2 Northern Tripp is owned by Patricia Generazio and trained by Jim Ryerson. The three-year old Trippi-bred colt has been fifth in his two tries on the lawn at this distance in this same kind of company. There is room for improvement. Junior Alvarado rides.
Race One:
:5: Regal Strike
looks like “The Horse”. In his last, in the mud down in Philadelphia, he went off as the prohibitive, odds-on, one-to-two "fave". Well, he got shut off on the rail as the four-horse field headed into the far turn. The jock then took him to the outside, but, by then, it was too late; he was eased up in deep stretch. Any kind of trip should be enough to lead this Wavering Monarch-bred 4-year-old colt to the winner’s circle. Junior Alvarado rides for Rick Dutrow.
:7: Take Down Two
won his last in the slop (a favored surface) in this company. The Linda Rice-trainee is ridden by Cornelio Velasquez. This veteran 7-year-old gelding should benefit from his outside post. He’s hit the tote in his last three; he’s 10 for 20 in the money at the distance.
:2: Metaurus
The horse with the Punic War-battle name won his last and hit the tote in all three of his recent dirt tries. He’s hit the tote in 11 of his 15 six-furlong lifetime efforts. Jose Ortiz in the irons for trainer Gary Gullo.
#3 Overextended
cuts back to a sprint after finishing third and second in two most recent routes. The horse has hit the board in fourteen of 23 lifetime tries at the distance. A couple solid, recent morning works. David Cohen in the stirrups for trainer David Jacobson.
Race Two:
:8: Sargent Major Girl
is a Forest Wildcat-bred filly; her dam had six winners from seven starters. She might well benefit from the outside post, and if she has an early turn of foot, she could find herself on or near the lead. Sharp three-furlong work at Laurel. David Cohen for John Salzman, Jr. (he does well with maiden specials).
:5: John’s Mariah
did little in her initial start on the lawn. Now, this Storm Cat- (good first-time-starter pedigree) bred filly switches to the main track. She also adds “shades”. She did have a recent sharp three-furlong work in which she "drilled" the three panels in :36, breezing. The improving Wilmer Garcia rides for Carlos Martin.
:1: Wildcat’s Element
went off as the chalk in his last, a five-furlong sprint on a muddy track in mid-June. In looking at the replay, this recently-claimed Forest Wildcat-bred filly was bumped not once, but twice, in an effort to fight her way through a tight seam. The filly subsequently moved into contention near the far turn but was no match for the winner. Eddie Castro rides for trainer Gary Contessa.
#3 Riptherubberoff
is a Johannesburg- (good first-time-starter pedigree) bred filly who, as the DRF cites, has the breeding that is suited to today’s sprint distance. Trainer Rudy Rodriguez does a good job with first-timers. Cornelio Velasquez is in the irons.
Race Three:
:6: Dream Pegasus
has faced much better. Has only raced once on the lawn - Grade 3 Appalachian; she finished up the track but was in contention into the far turn. Shortens up a furlong from that race. Junior Alvarado for trainer Ken McPeek.
:11: Lawless Miss
gets the service of the high percentage jock, Jose Lezcano. Won her last against slightly weaker. Should benefit from outside starting post. One for two on the turf; five for nine in the money, lifetime.
:10: Manda Bay
is four hit-the-totes in six lifetime tries on the grass. She’s one for one at the 7 furlong distance. Shortens up a furlong off her last race. Rosie Napravnik for trainer Mike Maker.
#4 Debonair Dancer
has never raced on the grass but does have turf pedigree, e.g., A.P. Indy. Her dam, Dance of Sunshine, did produce one turf winner. Sharp five furlong work about a week ago. Eddie Castro in the irons for trainer Jim Toner.
Race Four:
:6: Shintoh ships in from “The Emerald Isle”. The 5-year-old Storm Cat-bred ridgling performed ably in turf sprints, one win in two tries. Yet, the horse has been off for well over a year when she was last seen racing in County Cork. The horse does get first-time lasix and the services of both jockey Cornelio Velasquez and trainer H. Allen Jerkens.
:3: Madman Diaries.
The In Excess-bred gelding has hit the tote in three of four turf tries. The horse has three wins and five seconds in 13 tries, lifetime. Wesley Ward trains (rider not available).
:5: Non Stop
might be the surprise factor here. The Valid Appeal-bred gelding switches to a high-percentage jock in the person of Jose Lezcano. In his last race, the four-year-old gelding finished fourth on the lawn at Monmouth, yet only a length off the winner in a five and one-half furlong sprint. The horse may benefit from the added half-furlong. Alan Goldberg trains.
Race Five:
:5: The Snickers Kid
won his last on the turf at six furlongs, his only lifetime win. The Citidancer-bred colt has hit the tote in all seven of his lifetime starts. I must profess my gnawing concerns, first that the colt is stepping up in company and, second, his connections have switched to a skilled, yet nonetheless low percentage jockey. Yet, despite these concerns, the horse still might prevail. Trainer Rudy Rodriguez is having an outstanding meet.
:7: Anaphylaxis
was second at a mile on the turf in his last against slightly weaker company. Prior to that he broke his maiden at this seven-furlong distance. Eddie Castro rides this Storm Cat-bred gelding for trainer Pablo Hizo.
:4: Kharafa
is a lightly raced three-year old who won at six furlongs on the lawn last September; that despite being bumped at the start. The Mr, Prospector-bred colt was fifth in his last, a six-furlong sprint on the lawn about a month ago at Belmont. The horse should indeed appreciate the added furlong. Joe Bravo rides for trainer Timothy Hills.
Race Six:
I don’t usually pick a Maylan Studart-ridden horse (I think the last time she won was aboard D’Sauvage as she scooted up the rail), but this is one of those exceptions. Yes, I’m picking :10: Senior Statesman. This is my long-shot try. A gambler’s throw. The Dixieland Band-bred gelding has faced maiden special weights competition in his last two. The gelding’s taking a significant class drop. True, the horse had little to show for his recent efforts; however, in his last on the turf, he came six-wide and although he finished well back, the winning time was quite speedy. Also, there the turf-to-dirt angle. I think it’s worth a look.
:7: Life Of The City was bumped in his last in this company. That appeared to compromise any chance this Carson City-bred gelding had of winning; he finished third. Yet there was improvement over his past efforts. If this upward trend continues, this horse might just be a factor. David Cohen rides for trainer Mike Stidham.
:8: Titus Catenius finished third in his last against slightly weaker. He does however get a significant jockey change to Cornelio Velasquez. The horse has hit the tote in three of six lifetime tries. Bruce Levine trains the Storm Cat-bred gelding.
#4 Second And One has failed in all ten tries at breaking his maiden. In his last, a little over a month ago, he was fourth in this company. Yet prior to thaty he competed in maiden special weights company. The Stormy Atlantic-bred horse has a recent sharp four-furlong work, Eddie Castro rides for trainer George Weaver.
Race Seven:
:8: Monastir gets my tepid nod in this turf route race. The horse has only won twice in 35 lifetime starts (frankly, not too reassuring); yet he narrowly missed in this company at the same distance in his last. Cornelio Velasquez retains the rides for trainer Jason Servis.
:10: Launch N Relaunch is a long-shot try who finished fifth in this company about a month ago. The horse has hit the tote in seven of 19 lifetime starts. Call it a hunch; call it an educated guess in this relatively weak field, but I believe this horse has a chance of hitting the tote. Junior Alvarado rides for trainer Gary Gullo.
:5: Love Shack (with emphasis on the phonetic “Luuhv”; thank you, Tom Durkin) has a shot of surprising. Ridden by - “If I were Abel I’d be ringing!” -Lezcano and trained by Linda Rice, this Holy Bull-bred mare has a win and a second in three tries at the distance; she’s hit the tote in three of six lifetime starts on the lawn. Third start back off a layoff angle,
#4 Sweat Shop is another possible long-shot try. The six-year old Gone West/Chilean-bred gelding hasn’t exactly been setting the world on fire. His last race was admittedly abysmal. However, he has hit the tote in seven of 12 lifetime starts, He’s had three seconds in six lifetime tries at the distance, Wilmer Garcia rides for trainer Bruce Levine,
Race Eight:
In the ManOWar (One of the few horses ever mentioned in a U.S. History text book), I like :5: Treasure Beach. He is ridden by the 32-year old Jamie Spencer who ships "across the Pond" from the UK for this historic race. Ths 4-year old Sadler’s Wells-bred horse has logged more frequent-flyer miles than a seasoned traveler. His "ports of call" stops include Hong Kong, United Arab Emirates, France, Britain, and Ireland. The horse has been off for more than two months and did not race well in is most recent start. Yet he is the class if the race and if he fires, as expected, he most certainly is capable of winning. Aidan O’Brien trains.
:3: Point Of Entry has won two in a row; he’s hit the tote in five of six tries on the lawn. Although he hasn’t raced in over two months, he had a solid recent four-furlong “bullet” work. The most capable Jose Lezcano rides for trainer “Shug” McGaughey.
:4: Newsdad has a second and third in two tries at the distance. He’s seven of 11 lifetime on the turf. This past March he won the Grade 2 Pan American at Gulfstreram Park. The horse had a solid work on the turf about a week ago as a tune up for today’s race. Junior Alvarado rides for trainer Bill Mott.
#7 Hudson Steele was leading most of the way in the Grade 1 Manhattan a little over a month ago only to finish fourth. Prior to that this Johannesburg-bred gelding won two straight including The Dixie at Pimlico. He’s hit the board in seven of eight lifetime tries on the lawn. Joe Bravo rides for trainer Todd Pletcher.
Race Nine:
:6: Leroidesioux gets my nod in this Inner Turf Course claimer. He's finished second in his last three in slightly better claiming company. He's five for six in the money, lifetime. David Cohen rides for trainer Chatterpaul Naipaul.
:4: Fear Nothing is another horse who stands a chance of getting all the enchiladas in this turf sprint. He won his last at seven furlongs in slightly better company. Eddie Castro rides for Angel Penna, Jr.
:8: Brown Indian is a distinct threat and should not be ignored. This Cherokee Run-bred colt has faced much better. Jose Espinoza rides for trainer George Weaver.
#10 Ventura Bar is shortening up to a sprint. That turn back may be all this horse needs to be "a contendah". He's had a second in one try on the lawn. Wilmer Garcia rides for trainer Neal Terricciano.
Race Ten:
:12: Honest Johnny is a first-timer out of the Linda Rice barn. The three-year-old gelding has a good turf pedigree. He also has a solid recent "bullet" turf work. Cornelio Velasquez rides.
:10: Karakorum Holiday is another horse who might be a factor here. He's adding lasix; he's going a little longer; and it's his third start back off a layoff. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides for Jeff Odintz.
:7: Shy Humor has hit the board twice in two turf tries. He was second at this distance in his last. Jose Lezcano is in the irons for trainer Mark Hennig
#2 Northern Tripp is owned by Patricia Generazio and trained by Jim Ryerson. The three-year old Trippi-bred colt has been fifth in his two tries on the lawn at this distance in this same kind of company. There is room for improvement. Junior Alvarado rides.