When do you call it quits?

[jackad]

You've been using a system/approach that has shown a profit for a period of time. Then it starts losing. When do you decide to give it up and try something else?

Jack

[kitts]

Usually, I run a 500 race study. If it is a loser, 500 races is good enough for me.

[Derek2U]

my limit is ~~100 races but I also keep watchin the $$ but only
the LOSING $$. I got a limit of how much I wanna b minus after
~~100 races. Period. if that $$ is after only 30 races cause i
went wild or sumthing then i will totally reduce myself 2 fun wagers until i start a new ~~100 race cycle. so i'm a gauge of my
own betting cause no matter what its a gamble & u gotta stay
in control. actually i get tuff on myself after even ~20 races if
im not way ahead --- i'm my own worse tightAss. hehe djc

[so.cal.fan]

I agree with Derek, 100 races should show a profit or something is wrong.

[bigray76]

I agree with Kitts, 500 is usually enough to to prevent a longshot or two from making the results seem unusually good. My rule of thumb is, after 100, I look at the % it hits, then as it approaches 500, I look at ROI and win %. Generally even as I hit 500, I keep tracking something that is winning or is not losing more than 20%, this way I can see if there is a factor that may improve the chances of the angle/system. If nothing seems to help after 100 races, it is no longer used in my applications.

[kenwoodallpromos]

If I make 10 bets and do not lose less than 10% I quit that one!

[jackad]

Here's the reason why I asked the question that started this thread.
Over 35 days and 409 bets I showed a win frequency of 23% and a profit of $213 on $2 win bets. Over the next 15 days and 172 bets I showed a win frequency of 14.5% and a loss of $118 on $2 bets.

Should I quit?

Jack

[Hosshead]

Jackad, If I understand you correctly, you are winning at about a 20% win rate with about an 8%ROI? Question is, can you stand the losing streaks associated with a 20% win rate, especially if you increase the size of your bets? Was the same handicapping factors used on Both samples? Or were they different?
Since you're averaging 11.6 bets per day, you are making a Daily Profit of about $1.86 on $2 bets. Things would be different if you had a 8%ROI with a much higher win rate. Then you could increase the size of your bets and not have the long losing streaks. Back to the drawing board!

[maxwell]

One thing caught my eye concerning the amount of plays you are making : 409 plays in 35 days !

You must be using some sort of program; or you have too much time on your hands :)

You should keep track of the % of horses that are hitting the board. More horses should be hitting 3rd than 2nd and more 2nd than 1st.

If this is not the case, your system will not win over time - it means your first winning % was a fluke.

[Cratos]

I laugh when I hear someone speak of a “system” they are using when betting race horses. First and foremost you cannot make a system that will work because you have no control over the race or the horses in the race.

Logically for a system to work, there must be control and the ability to tweak it when it drifts out of control.

What you and many other horseplayers are speaking of is a “betting scheme.” Because betting schemes inherently have “term limits’ they will always come to an end.

Therefore my advice to myself is to have (a) attitude, (b) affordability, (c) patience, and (d) discipline.

This is to say you must have the right attitude when you bet. Don’t be wishy-washy, stay with your choice because it is based on your handicapping. Have enough funds such that you can afford to make the wager you desire. Be patience and wait for your betting opportunity. Lastly if you lose or win, be discipline enough to stay with your plan.

[kenwoodallpromos]

That I was not aware of. Thanks!

[Derek2U]

hehe just came in after night out w/ my wife Solange & I was
reflecting on my bets Saturday in the War Room & wanted to
post a word when Cratos' post appeard & so .... set out Saturday
2 win the p6 at AQU -- i hardly ever bet p6 but i love p4 . neways
with just playful money i was up ~$350 after the first 4 races ..
time 2 place my p6 picks: #1 ... my puter laid out a ticket w/ 81
combos, stand-alones in 2 races + 3 picks in each of the other
4 races. So, 1st shock, i call out my bets & THEN the otb teller
says $162 please --- not the $81 I planned at $1 bets. So, okay,
I say, 162 it is. My stand-alone gets trounced & I'm out. But
in the WR is IrishLad, a xcellent player & his pick wins wire-2-wire.
AHA, i think, this SPEED BIAS is Real 2day. #2 ... its time to re-do
my p4 & so i do have a puter routine to re-do the races w/ a
SLANT 2 speed (or slant AWAY also) & so i call otb with my 81
combos for races 7 to 10 with 3 picks per race & WHAT happens:
Race7 I win but in Race8 my prog calls the #3 horse, "CHEAP-FAST" but he wins wire2wire and my picks run 2-3 but I'm OUT of p4. (I win Races 9 & 10). Should I've let my brain adjust that
CHEAPY up the ranks more? -- he was ranked 4th after re-do.
Clearly, I saw this b4-hand but whats a guy 2 do? **besides
yellin F at his TV in his apt alone? Geez I just Love this Game.