Outside Post position @ Yonkers

[Mr G]

I wager mostly on thoroughbreds but am taking more interest in following the trotters....I live on Long Island and do my wagering through the NYRA Rewards Internet website which shows live racing of Yonkers and a few other harness tracks...


In the old days when I use to frequent OTB the guys who played Yonkers would always make mention of how the extreme outside post, like 8, was at a severe disadvantage due to the amount of ground it must make up the way the track at Yonkers is.

My questions are is it true that the extreme outside posts at Yonkers is at a disadvantage to the inside posts and are the other harness tracks in the state of NY also have the same disadvantage for the outside posts?

( I used the "Search Forum" to try to see past posts about "outside posts" but kept getting a error message)

Fatal error: Allowed memory size of 33554432 bytes exhausted (tried to allocate 1048576 bytes) in /usr/www/users/paceadv/forum/search.php on line 974


So that is why I am making this post to ask.
Thanks in advance for any help.

[beaucap]

I wager mostly on thoroughbreds but am taking more interest in following the trotters....I live on Long Island and do my wagering through the NYRA Rewards Internet website which shows live racing of Yonkers and a few other harness tracks...


In the old days when I use to frequent OTB the guys who played Yonkers would always make mention of how the extreme outside post, like 8, was at a severe disadvantage due to the amount of ground it must make up the way the track at Yonkers is.

My questions are is it true that the extreme outside posts at Yonkers is at a disadvantage to the inside posts and are the other harness tracks in the state of NY also have the same disadvantage for the outside posts?

( I used the "Search Forum" to try to see past posts about "outside posts" but kept getting a error message)

Fatal error: Allowed memory size of 33554432 bytes exhausted (tried to allocate 1048576 bytes) in /usr/www/users/paceadv/forum/search.php on line 974


So that is why I am making this post to ask.
Thanks in advance for any help.


ASK RAY 2000.....HE has all that info and more.........:ThmbUp:

[Overlay]

When I lived in New York and played Yonkers and Roosevelt back in the '70's, the bias toward inside post positions at those half-mile tracks was very pronounced. A horse had to be in markedly superior shape or have racing luck go his way to win from anywhere outside the 5 post, due to the effort exerted to get in a contending position early, or to catch up later in the race from having lost ground around the first turn.

[Mr G]

Thanks and just a few moments ago I was reading about the history of Yonkers....http://www.horseracing.info/yonkers-racetrack.html


Quite an interesting history.

[Ray2000]

Here's the latest unofficial post stats I have for 2010 thru 2011
Yonkers is shown for before and after 2/2/11 (1 mile vs 1-1/16 mile in 2011)
Bias is percent more or less than expected wins accounting for the field size.
Some 2012 stats can be found at http://racing.ustrotting.com/ under menu "Track Statistics"



Track PP1 PP2 PP3 PP4 PP5 PP6 PP7 PP8 PP9 PP10 PP11 PP12
ACES 715 712 688 714 717 676 563 447 253 16 0 0
Win% 14% 14% 14% 17% 16% 15% 10% 10% 10% 6%
Bias 4% 8% 6% 32% 22% 14% -22% -16% -11% -39%
ROI% -32% -22% -28% -13% -21% -10% -44% -11% 10% -48%

BANG 860 889 872 853 869 806 681 429 12 0 0 0
Win% 15% 17% 14% 18% 19% 13% 8% 5% 8%
Bias 6% 24% -4% 28% 36% -7% -41% -63% -24%
ROI% -31% -28% -31% -2% 3% -19% -35% -36% -79%

BMLP 2902 2895 2856 2846 2876 2839 2605 1995 1323 727 5 3
Win% 15% 13% 13% 13% 15% 13% 11% 10% 9% 9% 0% 0%
Bias 23% 8% 6% 3% 17% 4% -10% -10% -16% -15%
ROI% -19% -27% -26% -29% -27% -25% -37% -20% -33% -23%

BR 2081 2067 2077 2068 2079 2065 1980 1515 0 0 0 0
Win% 25% 18% 15% 18% 14% 8% 6% 3%
Bias 95% 35% 12% 36% 9% -41% -57% -79%
ROI% -3% -23% -12% -13% -11% -41% -24% -70%

BTVA 1506 1501 1475 1492 1484 1469 1391 1040 0 0 0 0
Win% 28% 17% 15% 17% 15% 7% 5% 3%
Bias 116% 26% 11% 30% 15% -44% -62% -77%
ROI% 8% -17% -23% -1% -12% -42% -44% -44%

CALX 2526 2532 2558 2538 2559 2447 1935 1218 490 228 20 9
Win% 15% 14% 13% 14% 21% 12% 10% 8% 9% 8% 0% 0%
Bias 7% 5% -4% 3% 51% -10% -20% -31% -20% -19%
ROI% -24% -22% -29% -18% 11% -28% -28% -15% -12% -11%

CHST 3335 3394 3369 3396 3364 3306 3047 2189 6 3 0 0
Win% 13% 13% 14% 20% 19% 12% 10% 7% 0% 33%
Bias -4% 0% 2% 50% 46% -9% -26% -46% -100% 233%
ROI% -38% -34% -37% -1% -4% -28% -43% -52% -100% 930%

CNL 488 475 494 497 469 481 401 317 227 109 2 0
Win% 14% 14% 13% 11% 17% 15% 10% 9% 10% 10% 0%
Bias 10% 8% 1% -9% 32% 17% -14% -15% -8% 1%
ROI% -23% -30% -28% -33% -16% 28% -43% -26% 28% -8%

DD 3358 3354 3378 3379 3366 3306 3154 2480 1126 3 0 0
Win% 18% 15% 15% 16% 17% 10% 7% 5% 10% 0%
Bias 43% 21% 15% 30% 33% -24% -42% -62% -10%
ROI% -19% -20% -21% -18% -7% -33% -31% -50% -43%

FHLD 2600 2585 2596 2614 2620 2563 2413 1805 18 2 0 0
Win% 25% 19% 16% 16% 14% 8% 5% 3% 33% 0%
Bias 88% 43% 18% 20% 8% -36% -62% -77% 191%
ROI% -17% -11% -28% -20% -14% -36% -41% -73% 36%

FLMD 3948 3977 3941 3964 3975 3896 3699 2630 3116 1 0 0
Win% 22% 17% 16% 15% 15% 8% 5% 4% 9% 0%
Bias 85% 45% 30% 22% 28% -31% -55% -62% -18%
ROI% -7% -21% -13% -25% -17% -39% -49% -47% -38%

FRD 1532 1508 1533 1513 1518 1440 1296 986 890 1 0 0
Win% 17% 16% 15% 16% 15% 8% 7% 5% 9% 0%
Bias 35% 23% 19% 26% 20% -32% -43% -55% -21%
ROI% -17% -16% 1% -22% -17% -42% -36% -40% -44%

GEOD 1968 1920 1957 1971 1955 1932 1856 1551 863 47 4 2
Win% 20% 17% 15% 15% 15% 9% 8% 7% 5% 9% 0% 0%
Bias 62% 41% 25% 25% 22% -25% -34% -38% -51% -18%
ROI% -8% -22% -23% -28% -29% -37% -30% -28% -40% -81%

GRVR 1187 1217 1228 1223 1195 1215 1139 876 979 1 0 0
Win% 22% 18% 17% 17% 15% 9% 9% 4% 12% 0%
Bias 81% 54% 40% 41% 25% -25% -27% -64% 0%
ROI% -1% -19% -18% -13% -22% -37% -9% -36% -29%

HAR 2740 2736 2738 2752 2727 2706 2558 1957 0 0 0 0
Win% 20% 17% 15% 18% 14% 9% 6% 6%
Bias 52% 31% 12% 33% 8% -28% -51% -52%
ROI% -25% -24% -20% -13% -25% -29% -38% -23%

HOP 1672 1654 1673 1688 1691 1688 1615 1564 1213 1371 54 21
Win% 11% 11% 11% 14% 16% 11% 10% 10% 7% 10% 11% 5%
Bias 4% 3% 9% 31% 53% 2% -4% 1% -28% -5% 22% -44%
ROI% -30% -26% -30% -5% 1% -28% -23% -13% -41% -29% -4% -91%

HP 1172 1174 1186 1207 1207 1169 1067 787 489 6 2 0
Win% 12% 13% 13% 16% 19% 13% 9% 9% 5% 17% 0%
Bias -3% 5% 5% 27% 52% 4% -24% -23% -54% 72%
ROI% -35% -28% -28% -14% 7% -24% -35% -23% -52% 275%

INDY 1671 1667 1694 1737 1728 1692 1644 1489 958 950 60 13
Win% 12% 12% 14% 15% 15% 12% 9% 8% 9% 11% 17% 0%
Bias 5% 8% 21% 29% 32% 7% -15% -26% -14% 3% 78%
ROI% -21% -18% -3% -21% -22% -27% -35% -39% -23% -12% -2%

KD 1657 1640 1649 1668 1650 1666 1594 1201 1266 1 0 0
Win% 17% 16% 14% 17% 16% 10% 8% 6% 9% 0%
Bias 44% 37% 16% 41% 35% -16% -31% -49% -21%
ROI% -17% -14% -24% -9% -10% -38% -41% -53% -18%

LEB 1001 1005 1002 1025 996 1003 920 643 574 0 0 0
Win% 22% 16% 17% 14% 13% 9% 6% 4% 10%
Bias 78% 31% 39% 14% 5% -24% -50% -69% -16%
ROI% -8% -34% -10% -24% -13% -48% -33% -59% -43%

LEX 483 496 508 518 508 480 418 340 233 113 20 10
Win% 16% 13% 12% 15% 18% 14% 11% 8% 10% 18% 15% 0%
Bias 27% 0% -3% 24% 40% 14% -11% -31% -1% 79% 62%
ROI% 15% -33% -23% 21% -17% -14% -3% -22% 7% 195% -48%

LON 2468 2452 2438 2480 2473 2392 1904 2226 1 0 0 0
Win% 21% 18% 18% 18% 11% 9% 7% 11% 0%
Bias 61% 37% 41% 39% -20% -32% -48% -18%
ROI% -18% -13% 2% -2% -44% -28% -37% -33%

MAY 2129 2132 2152 2158 2145 2137 2014 1415 486 0 0 0
Win% 18% 16% 15% 16% 15% 11% 7% 6% 10%
Bias 37% 24% 13% 27% 13% -12% -44% -52% -12%
ROI% -40% -34% -27% -9% -29% -19% -40% -25% -19%

BigM 2159 2171 2155 2178 2201 2175 2088 1897 1561 974 29 5
Win% 13% 12% 11% 12% 15% 14% 10% 9% 9% 10% 17% 0%
Bias 19% 10% 0% 8% 37% 24% -8% -19% -15% -3% 88%
ROI% -20% -31% -30% -26% -4% -4% -29% -36% -33% -25% 16%

MEA 5216 5169 5206 5225 5257 5205 5021 4420 2716 9 6 5
Win% 13% 13% 14% 15% 17% 13% 10% 8% 6% 0% 17% 0%
Bias 9% 9% 12% 21% 40% 5% -14% -28% -47% 77%
ROI% -29% -27% -23% -23% -7% -14% -26% -7% -45% -22%

MOH 1906 1915 1920 1912 1960 1940 1841 1622 1246 721 11 2
Win% 11% 13% 12% 12% 17% 18% 11% 9% 8% 4% 18% 0%
Bias -7% 15% -1% 1% 50% 58% -7% -19% -27% -56% 98%
ROI% -16% -8% -28% -32% -2% -8% -23% -38% -27% -51% 13%

MR 4450 4498 4479 4519 4510 4416 4133 2973 81 3 0 0
Win% 21% 17% 17% 17% 16% 9% 7% 4% 12% 0%
Bias 56% 32% 27% 30% 22% -32% -49% -68% 9%
ROI% -19% -22% -17% -20% -14% -41% -38% -53% 51%

NFLD 4937 4925 4954 4955 4899 4898 4739 3630 3916 4 0 0
Win% 19% 17% 15% 15% 13% 8% 6% 4% 11% 25%
Bias 63% 43% 27% 23% 13% -34% -51% -63% -7% 150%
ROI% -17% -19% -26% -24% -29% -43% -41% -45% -27% 43%

NOR 1277 1228 1239 1256 1254 1265 1182 905 881 1 0 0
Win% 14% 15% 13% 15% 19% 10% 8% 8% 9% 0%
Bias 21% 25% 10% 24% 60% -15% -29% -34% -23%
ROI% -37% -8% -30% -19% 4% -16% -34% -20% -33%

NP 620 628 635 625 617 576 490 350 230 0 0 0
Win% 16% 12% 17% 19% 19% 11% 7% 5% 9%
Bias 24% -8% 24% 40% 40% -14% -46% -54% -19%
ROI% -18% -35% -1% -12% 0% -9% -67% -60% -33%

OD 239 250 247 241 249 239 201 147 127 1 0 0
Win% 17% 20% 15% 13% 15% 10% 5% 6% 13% 0%
Bias 31% 62% 14% 4% 18% -20% -59% -47% 10%
ROI% -9% -1% -33% -41% -23% -58% -77% -61% -30%

PCD 3556 3567 3563 3552 3591 3566 3368 2871 1766 0 0 0
Win% 15% 14% 15% 17% 16% 11% 9% 7% 7%
Bias 23% 12% 21% 36% 29% -12% -22% -39% -37%
ROI% -24% -23% -17% 0% -20% -32% -24% -37% -39%

PPK 2250 2237 2281 2255 2249 2179 1955 1579 900 70 1 0
Win% 12% 13% 12% 14% 24% 14% 10% 7% 5% 7% 0%
Bias -2% -2% -7% 6% 89% 8% -17% -41% -57% -31%
ROI% -25% -32% -34% -32% 21% -19% -15% -40% -54% -46%

PRC 1435 1406 1436 1429 1426 1380 1162 747 190 0 0 0
Win% 17% 16% 13% 17% 15% 12% 10% 7% 3%
Bias 26% 19% -2% 24% 13% -12% -26% -40% -72%
ROI% -25% -22% -36% -4% -21% -25% -24% -8% -66%

RCR 110 118 111 117 123 100 86 41 35 0 0 0
Win% 15% 13% 13% 16% 24% 16% 16% 2% 6%
Bias 3% -10% -10% 13% 67% 17% 27% -79% -53%
ROI% -30% -11% -28% 30% 22% -25% -30% -94% -65%

RIDC 3804 3839 3768 3804 3799 3749 3474 2549 2488 1 0 0
Win% 20% 17% 15% 15% 15% 9% 7% 6% 10% 0%
Bias 61% 37% 20% 23% 24% -23% -40% -47% -15%
ROI% -7% -15% -22% -28% -16% -43% -42% -44% -34%

RP 956 951 943 948 949 923 815 498 378 1 0 0
Win% 15% 13% 16% 17% 18% 13% 10% 7% 9% 0%
Bias 11% -4% 25% 28% 35% -2% -23% -40% -23%
ROI% -24% -42% -18% -18% -22% -31% -46% -34% -50%

SCAR 1792 1756 1784 1797 1775 1701 1479 1054 7 0 0 0
Win% 19% 18% 17% 17% 16% 10% 7% 4% 0%
Bias 39% 35% 23% 24% 19% -27% -50% -65% -100%
ROI% -12% -5% -23% -2% 7% -34% -52% -62% -100%

SCD 936 930 941 905 944 902 869 784 542 548 1 0
Win% 14% 15% 14% 17% 16% 12% 9% 6% 4% 8% 0%
Bias 27% 30% 22% 54% 44% 10% -23% -43% -59% -20%
ROI% -27% -18% -21% 3% -4% -31% -38% -42% -73% -42%

SPCK 404 415 411 417 423 395 364 264 153 0 0 0
Win% 13% 14% 14% 20% 19% 12% 10% 8% 8%
Bias 0% 10% 11% 52% 46% -3% -22% -36% -24%
ROI% -30% -22% -28% 28% -12% -17% -61% -15% -19%

STGA 3191 3231 3237 3222 3196 3176 3014 2318 104 2 0 0
Win% 21% 16% 16% 17% 13% 10% 7% 6% 13% 0%
Bias 63% 21% 20% 33% 3% -23% -42% -55% 18%
ROI% -23% -28% -18% -4% -21% -31% -32% -44% -28%

TGDN 1064 1087 1100 1086 1077 1080 960 783 417 13 1 0
Win% 14% 15% 13% 19% 17% 13% 9% 8% 4% 8% 100%
Bias 11% 19% 5% 48% 35% 0% -30% -28% -65% -24% 900%
ROI% -11% -20% -22% 11% -10% -38% -32% -34% -81% 82% 480%

VD 1586 1581 1568 1584 1578 1552 1399 1161 593 6 0 0
Win% 13% 13% 13% 15% 19% 14% 12% 9% 8% 33%
Bias 3% 5% 4% 21% 53% 11% -3% -26% -32% 227%
ROI% -14% -26% -23% -11% 10% -29% -19% -44% -57% 232%

WDB 2542 2552 2519 2565 2562 2529 2446 2192 1761 1084 13 0
Win% 10% 11% 12% 11% 16% 19% 11% 9% 8% 6% 8%
Bias -17% 0% 2% -4% 39% 68% -3% -18% -23% -40% -18%
ROI% -32% -32% -21% -37% -11% -1% -26% -21% -22% -16% -78%

WR 1896 1910 1882 1916 1909 1855 1740 1412 861 3 1 0
Win% 16% 14% 14% 18% 17% 12% 9% 5% 4% 0% 0%
Bias 29% 14% 16% 44% 37% 0% -30% -54% -62%
ROI% -29% -30% -33% -13% -12% -20% -25% -36% -65%

YR2011 2033 2057 2057 2052 2073 2070 1989 1567
Win% 18% 16% 14% 17% 16% 11% 8% 5%
Bias 39% 25% 6% 30% 20% -19% -39% -57%
ROI% -30% -17% -31% -25% -18% -23% -25% -35%

YR2010 2786 2772 2790 2767 2793 2761 2666 2034
Win% 24% 18% 16% 17% 15% 7% 5% 4%
Bias 86% 36% 24% 28% 17% -43% -62% -70%
ROI% -11% -18% -16% -15% -3% -42% -49% -50%

[Mr G]

Thanks very much Ray...and thanks for that link as it has a ton of information I will spend time reading.

I took the screenshots just now from there and question I have is what does the UDRS column mean on the drivers stat screenshot?

Also, what is your opinion or outlook on the future of Harness Racing from now say until 5 years out in the future?

Thanks again!

[Ray2000]

Mr G


The UDRS is a "Universal Driver Stat" similar to a batting average in baseball.

The USTA calculates it by using a drivers( wins x9 + places x5 + shows x3) / starts x9




As for the look into the 5 year crystal ball, I see the game splitting into 2 directions,

First, the emergence of a single, year round, 1 mile Super track with all ties to online wagering, rebates, robotic wagering and major stakes races. One in US and one in Canada. All other tracks will just be Casinos, no live racing.

and secondly.
A return to small fair like meets lasting 3 or 4 weeks at local communities with no ties to internet gambling, built on the Delaware Fair Jug format.

Just my thoughts on where we might go to save this sport I like so much..

[Mr G]

Thanks Ray for your help, knowledge and insight...I sure appreciate it!

[pandy]

I used to bet posts 7 and 8 a lot at Yonkers and made many scores and had a lot of winners, but that was back in the 1970's. The racing was dramatically different back then and so was the track configuration. Now Yonkers starts the races very close to the first turn so posts 6, 7 and 8 are brutal.

[pandy]

Thanks Ray.

[Ray2000]

Glad to help

Here's the winning favorites that I have from USTA listed in Nov 2011,

Batavia 46.83% .....on 841 starts
Balmoral 40.98% ....on 1672
Calx 39.43% ........on 545
Chester 44.43% .....on 1909
Dover 43.45% .......on 665
Freehold 46.88% ....on 386
Northfield 45.55% ..on 2787
Meadows 39.06% .....on 3033
Meadowlands 43.64%..on 876 ...(2012 stats)
Monticello 44.18% ..on 2295
Maywood 43.45% .....on 1275
Plainridge 37.86%...on 734
Pompano 39.80% .....on 505
Saratoga 43.36% ....on 2110
Sports Creek 37.72% on 228
Yonkers 42.49% .....on 2775

Mohawk 35.80%.......on 936 ...(5/17-9/21 this year)